Buy secondary market or wait?

[Xerxes77]

I say buy it…

[chiscott_29]

[QUOTE=AJMarcus;11653143]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

Totally stealing from David Khalil here, but the best time to buy any watch was yesterday. Today is your next best option.

That’s what every watch dealer wants consumers to believe.

Prove any time where it’s false or wouldn’t have been good advice?

Listen, nobody likes the reality. But what rationale do you hold that indicates that waiting would be a good idea?


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[bob sims]

Originally Posted by Guyidan

Hey.

Question for the watch pros here -

I'm looking for a Rose Gold Day Date with a green dial/Potentially other less special rose gold day date, but as we know, it's close to impossible to get one in the AD's.

I don't buy watches for investment, but it would pain to pay a $20K premium (Or even a $5K premium) and within 12 months the prices are gonna drop and watches will again be available in AD's and I basically lost $5-$20K.

Do you think what we're seeing right now will continue for the long term? (No watches available in AD's and crazy gray market prices?)

Thank you!

A lot of people waited on the Hulk and now they can never get a truly new one again.
If you are under 40 and in good health you can afford to wait 3 or 5 years. Otherwise go grey.
If you have net worth over a million and dependable income then what the **** are you waiting for? My cousin's kid is in the hospital right now with Covid. Not my cousin-the kid. I know 12 kids in my high school-not all of them in my class-that died either before graduation or within 5 years after. Suicide, car accidents, cancer, drowning, a murder and 1 in Vietnam. And you're worried you might "only" get back 52k instead of 55k?

[BigBallerBrand]

wait for sure. I think what you will come to realize is that while there are genuine people on TRF who are trying to help, there are also those who want to "pump" up the value of the watches they own and feed into the hype etc.

unfortunately, there hasn't been a strong correction in secondary prices in the last 4-5 years, but in all markets, there always is one. luxury watches are no different.

alot of the growth we have seen in the equity markets have been driven by QE & inflation, not really strong earnings. it will be interesting to see how strong earnings are in the 2h of next year after the impact of artificial demand and stimmy checks run dry. and when markets are not doing well....there is less demand

[Jerrocop]

I say buy it if you've found what you like. "A bird in hand is worth two in the bush." If you have the means I wouldn't sweat it . . . if you don't have the means, well then that's something to consider.

[stewester]

Apparently prices only go up and will continue going up forever, so had better buy now.

[214270Explorer]

I would wait.
Gray Dealers' prices are just far too insane, IMHO.
They HAVE to come down sometime if they EVER expect to move the thousands all the Gray's have in stock.

Ultimately, it is up to you. You may never get one from an AD -- who knows. Decisions, decisions, decisions.

[WestCoastS]

I would wait and go with a AD. Only way I would go grey and pay that premium is if I was trading pieces towards it and negotiate off the price.

[RoscoPico]

wait.

[chiscott_29]

I honestly don’t understand the rationale for some of these comments as to why it’s a good idea to wait.

Who on earth would waste their time on here trying to “pump” watches? This board is a wart on the ass of an elephant in terms of the actual size of the market. Nothing happens on here that impacts ANYTHING.

“Prices have to come down or the grays will be destroyed”. How so? Most dealers move product very quickly - Usually within weeks but most definitely within a month or two. If prices come down, they’ll be buying new inventory at the lower prices. Sure, that’ll hurt overall revenue and some will have to give up the new Ferrari, but anybody with half of a brain in terms of running a business will adapt accordingly.

I think the key point I’m trying to convey is life is short and so much can happen in the blink of an eye. If you are confident the finances are in line for such a purchase, DO IT. So it falls to MSRP…big deal. Enjoy that watch and look down at your wrist every day and smile.

There is absolutely nothing on the horizon that indicates watches are going to fall in any appreciable way, or that the game is changing in terms of supply, AD games, etc. Sure, things will change in some fashion over time, but if the change is sudden I also offer to you I doubt you’re going to even want to spend $38k on a discretionary purchase such as a watch if it were offered to you.


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[RFC]

Why wait when it may never come? It’s a now moment for me.

[FL23833]

I'll buy a new Sub or GMT if I can get my hands on one. I can't wrap my head around paying a huge premium on th4 secondary when Rolex is still pumping out a million watches yearly.

[IR201]

This is why I started a thread out of curiosity for the MSRP only crowd.

If it is about principle, I can actually understand it better.

If it is about fear of the watch going down in value, I have a tougher time understanding as it is hard to envision the watch declining substantially in value absent a massive economic event, in which case the decline from market to MSRP or even below would probably be the least of your concerns.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I honestly don’t understand the rationale for some of these comments as to why it’s a good idea to wait.

I can only speak for myself, but on no planet is the 124060 sub worth the $12,000 to $13,000 that greys are asking for it. It's just not a $12,000 watch. It's nice, don't get me wrong, but there's no way in hell it's a $12,000 watch.

[javierm27]

Buy it, create a relationship with a grey dealer and profit? This is the new way.

[rolexalias]

I rather wait, and you should.

[stark1]

As others have suggested, I'd wait as well.

[Lukebennett21]

20k of jewelry for bundle purchase an option?

[rolexjackson]

If you have the cash get it you won’t regret it, if you have the cash and it will bother you to spend the extra premium then wait and of course captain obvious if you don’t have the cash then you wait

[jsd757]

Wait. FOMC Meeting minutes were released and they’re now saying inflation isn’t transitory, they’re now also talking about stagflation. In the next year or so, you’ll regret paying inflated grey market prices. I waited until the year I turned 50 and met a financial goal, I purchased at MSRP from an AD. I waited my turn on the list and can now flip my sub for a 50% gain instead of wondering at night if I paid too much. I’ll not be flipping my sub unless the world goes to hell. I don’t care who you are, unless you were born at third base and think you’ve hit a home run, you think about overpaying if you actually earned the cash.

[teck21]

Many prefer that you wait because they fear that you will buy into the hype and make what they themselves want even more unobtainable for themselves.

So it’s in their best interest that everyone waits, the hype dies down and they beat everyone through the front door again if and when that happens, and screw you if you miss the boat again.


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[warren G.]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I honestly don’t understand the rationale for some of these comments as to why it’s a good idea to wait.

Who on earth would waste their time on here trying to “pump” watches? This board is a wart on the ass of an elephant in terms of the actual size of the market. Nothing happens on here that impacts ANYTHING.

“Prices have to come down or the grays will be destroyed”. How so? Most dealers move product very quickly - Usually within weeks but most definitely within a month or two. If prices come down, they’ll be buying new inventory at the lower prices. Sure, that’ll hurt overall revenue and some will have to give up the new Ferrari, but anybody with half of a brain in terms of running a business will adapt accordingly.

I think the key point I’m trying to convey is life is short and so much can happen in the blink of an eye. If you are confident the finances are in line for such a purchase, DO IT. So it falls to MSRP…big deal. Enjoy that watch and look down at your wrist every day and smile.

There is absolutely nothing on the horizon that indicates watches are going to fall in any appreciable way, or that the game is changing in terms of supply, AD games, etc. Sure, things will change in some fashion over time, but if the change is sudden I also offer to you I doubt you’re going to even want to spend $38k on a discretionary purchase such as a watch if it were offered to you.

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Hahah this.

If for whatever reason the market tanks, the real legit "dealers" will adapt and their business will stay a float. If Sub suddenly sell for below MRSP, lets say 7k, guess what... the dealers will buy it for 5k, and still make their money. That's why guys like DavidSW, and many other dealers are still in business after 10+ years.

These grey dealers are not here to inflate the prices to **** with us. It's literally what the market is dictating. I get it, the current environment sucks... But if you want the watch, and you have the money/afford it. I would just get it.... I'm buying a Pepsi next year. If literally the next day the watch drop 50% in value, it wouldn't bother me.

[kg19989]

If you can afford it buy it. The watch is for your wrist so really, the value is whatever it is worth to you. If the premium is still of value to you then carry on soldier!!!

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[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by FL23833

I'll buy a new Sub or GMT if I can get my hands on one. I can't wrap my head around paying a huge premium on th4 secondary when Rolex is still pumping out a million watches yearly.

I think it’s around 800,000 a year. However divide that by every continent, country, city, town, down and individual AD across the world.

Then look how many individual models Rolex make eg Datejust 41,36,31,28, all the different metal combos, every dial and bracelet combo….and that’s just the datejusts. When it filters all the way down to steel subs and GMT’s, the number is likely not that big.

[Ap3100]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Personally, I would wait. I think you could find an AD to sell you that watch as it’s in a higher price category.

This is probably the most sought after day date. There is no shortage of people lined up to buy this piece. Prices will likely go up going into holiday season so I would buy now. Also if your timeframe is longer Rolex might increases prices due to demand like AP has done. Probably impossible to get at AD without prior purchase history

[MrMercedes]

100%: wait!

[1William]

Typically luxury good do not get cheaper with time and the steady march up for Rolex will continue in the long run. Will we see dips and adjustments, sure, but it will continue to march up. Contact a Trusted Seller, get your best price, pay and start the ownership experience. Simple.

[RFC]

Originally Posted by Mendota

I can only speak for myself, but on no planet is the 124060 sub worth the $12,000 to $13,000 that greys are asking for it. It's just not a $12,000 watch. It's nice, don't get me wrong, but there's no way in hell it's a $12,000 watch.

It’s worth what customers are willing to pay for it. To you it may not be but to many others it’s worth 13k or whatever the market price commands. Economics 101. I think the 124060 is a tremendous watch and demand will not subside.

I was in exactly the same situation as this OP. In 2019 purchased an 114060 grey after tiring of months of waiting from my AD. One year later got the call. Purchased the 124060 from the AD at retail price and sold the 114060 quickly but took a loss. Still ended up paying NET slightly MORE for the new Sub (12%) had I waited for the AD but 30% LESS than buying grey. Point is got my Sub when I wanted and had the cake and ate it too. Life is full of compromises.

[Polarexplorerii]

Originally Posted by RFC

It’s worth what customers are willing to pay for it. To you it may not be but to many others it’s worth 13k or whatever the market price commands. Economics 101. I think the 124060 is a tremendous watch and demand will not subside.

I was in exactly the same situation as this OP. In 2019 purchased an 114060 grey after tiring of months of waiting from my AD. One year later got the call. Purchased the 124060 from the AD at retail price and sold the 114060 quickly but took a loss. Still ended up paying NET slightly MORE for the new Sub (12%) had I waited for the AD but 30% LESS than buying grey. Point is got my Sub when I wanted and had the cake and ate it too. Life is full of compromises.

And thats the problem, customers are the ones who keep the prices inflated. If everyone would stop buying at these high prices then the market would have no choice but to come down. As soon as a Rolex comes down only $1K we see it as a deal and jump on it keeping the prices inflated.

[RFC]

Originally Posted by Polarexplorerii

And thats the problem, customers are the ones who keep the prices inflated. If everyone would stop buying at these high prices then the market would have no choice but to come down. As soon as a Rolex comes down only $1K we see it as a deal and jump on it keeping the prices inflated.

I beg to differ. It’s not a problem when customers, absent collusion or artificial price controls, are willing to pay more for a watch, widget, or whatever suits their fancy. One can argue that demand exceeding supply and thus higher prices is no problem at all.