The best and probably obvious reason for scarcity

[Watcheroo]

Originally Posted by Mendota

Thank you. It's interesting how many would-be economics experts we have here who will probably join in soon and fight you tooth and nail over this, likely because they themselves have overpaid for these shiny widgets [because they were impulsive and couldn't wait], therefore they have skin in this game and want to see secondary prices remain lofty. Trying to convince us otherwise, however, does them no good because we aren't the ones participating in this market anomaly right now. We are just watching it play out and have no dogs in this fight. They need to try to convince others, equally as impulsive as they are, that the time to buy is right now. Only through FOMO and impulsivity can they continue to push this rock up a hill. At some point that rock will pick up enough dirt and debris along the way up that the weight of it will start rolling back down. Maybe not quickly, but there will reach a point where fewer people are willing to pay lofty prices and decide to just wait it out. These proverbial "millionaires" that the impulsive crowd like to use as evidence of why secondary prices will just keep going up didn't actually get there by overspending on shiny widgets and trinkets.

You know what they say about assumptions…


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[thenewrick]

Any time someone says something like, “bro, the values will never go down bro”, you know the prices are definitely going to go down. ;p

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by Watcheroo

You know what they say about assumptions…


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For what it's worth, here's another way I personally look at it.

Shiny widgets trading hands on a secondary market at multiples of 1.5x or 2x or 3x over acquisition price is absolutely nothing like chasing after a stock/commodity/derivative that is on a run and averaging up your position as you chase the price up. There are clear entry and exit strategies involved with that method of trading and the risk is calculable. This is completely different from that. It's just shiny objects that are in high demand and secondary market sellers are seeing how much they can get for them. The sad thing is many newbies are drawn into this with the absurd idea that these shiny widgets are investment vehicles and they too can get in on the profit making, or if they keep it they are going to have the next Paul Newman Daytona sitting in their sock drawer.

[stewester]

I'm not too sure about the author's premise that the unlikely scenario of supply increasing is the only way to bring things back to earth.

The thousands of people who've recently got into watches through Instagram and the like have only seen prices increase on the secondary market, hence the idea that Rolex is a safe investment as prices only ever go up.

I'd never like to call the top, but this patently isn't sustainable for for items produced in the hundreds of thousands per year and sold at a fraction of their secondary market price to the first owner. There comes a point where prices simply become too absurd for the market to bear and for items being fed onto the market at a fraction of their secondary market value, prices either continue going up or they will start coming down.

As soon as prices look like dipping you'll get people looking to cash out, especially those who were only involved for speculative/investment reasons in the first place.

[Madman37]

One of the worst investments worse than a Rolex is Banksy art. It’s not even art he sprays a stencil, a flipping stencil he doesn’t even do the picture himself it’s using a cut out. That’s how crazy the world is

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by DonRickles

The scarcity of Rolex is strategic.

"Rolex seems to have structured their business in such a way that they're controlling distribution and who gets what, at a retail level,"

Watches are still flowing to the brand's preferred ADs, and that the backlog is more illusion than reality.

Rolex would like to perpetuate the image that there's a shortage and that there's such high demand that they can't produce enough to satisfy the demand, but I think in reality it's just very controlled release in order to keep that demand super high,"

Just to quote quickly…..

Sounds reasonable to me.

I'm not sure why there is this conception on TRF that Rolex would NEVER deploy a perceived scarcity strategy of any kind.

In marketing circles, "scarcity" is a bedrock of the luxury market, now more than ever as there are MORE PEOPLE with MORE MONEY than EVER before, so just being expensive alone isn't exclusionary enough.

There are countless marketing pieces about this available online. etc etc

https://www.markuskramer.net/scarcity-business-driver/

There are other luxury brands who are clearly deploying these strategies of limiting distribution...with great success (Hermes, AP, RM, Patek)...and these are generally accepted as doing so.

But when it comes to Rolex? NO. THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE. Rolex would never do such a thing to us. Unthinkable. Don't even mention it.

[sirbaz]

Do you think this is a strategy by Rolex to massively increase the prices MSRP in the near future and justify this with the demand. This would justifiably raise it into the stratosphere of Patek and AP etc etc but with the wider audience (I know this seems odd to us but I have friends who know about Rolex but draw a blank when you say AP or Patek). To me the marketing in premium events such as Le Mans, F1 and US Open etc etc is Rolex throwing huge huge amounts of money to raise profile for people to visit empty stores? No way. They want to make people want the brand, and those who have the money to be prepared to go on a waiting list. The jump in price will be welcomed I think. It would reduce waiting times, maintain value of Rolex’s already sold, and bring down the grey market industry. That’s my 2 pence or cents worth

[thenewrick]

Supply isn’t limited artificially or otherwise. There was a small hiccup this year from covid and supply issues but ADs are still getting shipments. Plenty of availability. I don’t think there’s any modern Rolex that can’t be bought right now and shipped to your doorstep within 24 hours.

Just because one vendor is buying supply from another vendor and marking it up doesn’t make it scarce or reduce supply. The supply is just shifting hands and being marked up. Like I’ve said before, check anywhere and you’ll see plenty of supply. 160 Pepsis for sale on Chrono24 right now. That’s not scarce in the slightest.

Demand can be looked at in 2 ways, consumer and investment. Right now consumer demand is probably pretty similar as it’s always been. And investment demand is way up. So half the individuals that want to consume are not buying and the other half are paying double while stock piles up at resellers and they make the same margins, maybe more who knows.

So more consumers think they are scarce because they don’t want to buy one at higher prices, more consumers think they are scarce because they paid a huge markup for one, and the vocal minority on social media, this forum included, echo those sentiments.

Example: *Bob pays double for a Pepsi* Bob posts on forum that he got a Pepsi and that it was “hard to get” because he paid double. A few hundred people on the forum see this and repeat the message. Those who were influenced then get curious and ask their ADs if they can get a Pepsi because doubling your investment seems like a great idea. And thus you get a false bubble. Same number of watches, no value increase, very small amount of actual buyers where cost is no object, the majority being influenced into thinking they can’t get something and that prices are justified

[BillAckmanOfficial]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Supply isn’t limited artificially or otherwise. There was a small hiccup this year from covid and supply issues but ADs are still getting shipments. Plenty of availability. I don’t think there’s any modern Rolex that can’t be bought right now and shipped to your doorstep within 24 hours.

Just because one vendor is buying supply from another vendor and marking it up doesn’t make it scarce or reduce supply. The supply is just shifting hands and being marked up. Like I’ve said before, check anywhere and you’ll see plenty of supply. 160 Pepsis for sale on Chrono24 right now. That’s not scarce in the slightest.

Demand can be looked at in 2 ways, consumer and investment. Right now consumer demand is probably pretty similar as it’s always been. And investment demand is way up. So half the individuals that want to consume are not buying and the other half are paying double while stock piles up at resellers and they make the same margins, maybe more who knows.

So more consumers think they are scarce because they don’t want to buy one at higher prices, more consumers think they are scarce because they paid a huge markup for one, and the vocal minority on social media, this forum included, echo those sentiments.

Example: *Bob pays double for a Pepsi* Bob posts on forum that he got a Pepsi and that it was “hard to get” because he paid double. A few hundred people on the forum see this and repeat the message. Those who were influenced then get curious and ask their ADs if they can get a Pepsi because doubling your investment seems like a great idea. And thus you get a false bubble. Same number of watches, no value increase, very small amount of actual buyers where cost is no object, the majority being influenced into thinking they can’t get something and that prices are justified

Interesting take, and I mainly agree with you. Do you think this is temporary though? I feel like this current state of affairs might very well become the new normal since I don't see ADs changing their model anytime soon.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Supply isn’t limited artificially or otherwise. There was a small hiccup this year from covid and supply issues but ADs are still getting shipments. Plenty of availability. I don’t think there’s any modern Rolex that can’t be bought right now and shipped to your doorstep within 24 hours.

Just because one vendor is buying supply from another vendor and marking it up doesn’t make it scarce or reduce supply. The supply is just shifting hands and being marked up. Like I’ve said before, check anywhere and you’ll see plenty of supply. 160 Pepsis for sale on Chrono24 right now. That’s not scarce in the slightest.

Demand can be looked at in 2 ways, consumer and investment. Right now consumer demand is probably pretty similar as it’s always been. And investment demand is way up. So half the individuals that want to consume are not buying and the other half are paying double while stock piles up at resellers and they make the same margins, maybe more who knows.

So more consumers think they are scarce because they don’t want to buy one at higher prices, more consumers think they are scarce because they paid a huge markup for one, and the vocal minority on social media, this forum included, echo those sentiments.

Example: *Bob pays double for a Pepsi* Bob posts on forum that he got a Pepsi and that it was “hard to get” because he paid double. A few hundred people on the forum see this and repeat the message. Those who were influenced then get curious and ask their ADs if they can get a Pepsi because doubling your investment seems like a great idea. And thus you get a false bubble. Same number of watches, no value increase, very small amount of actual buyers where cost is no object, the majority being influenced into thinking they can’t get something and that prices are justified

Fantastic explanation!

[Aquaholic_user]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Supply isn’t limited artificially or otherwise. There was a small hiccup this year from covid and supply issues but ADs are still getting shipments. Plenty of availability. I don’t think there’s any modern Rolex that can’t be bought right now and shipped to your doorstep within 24 hours.

Just because one vendor is buying supply from another vendor and marking it up doesn’t make it scarce or reduce supply. The supply is just shifting hands and being marked up. Like I’ve said before, check anywhere and you’ll see plenty of supply. 160 Pepsis for sale on Chrono24 right now. That’s not scarce in the slightest.

Demand can be looked at in 2 ways, consumer and investment. Right now consumer demand is probably pretty similar as it’s always been. And investment demand is way up. So half the individuals that want to consume are not buying and the other half are paying double while stock piles up at resellers and they make the same margins, maybe more who knows.

So more consumers think they are scarce because they don’t want to buy one at higher prices, more consumers think they are scarce because they paid a huge markup for one, and the vocal minority on social media, this forum included, echo those sentiments.

Example: *Bob pays double for a Pepsi* Bob posts on forum that he got a Pepsi and that it was “hard to get” because he paid double. A few hundred people on the forum see this and repeat the message. Those who were influenced then get curious and ask their ADs if they can get a Pepsi because doubling your investment seems like a great idea. And thus you get a false bubble. Same number of watches, no value increase, very small amount of actual buyers where cost is no object, the majority being influenced into thinking they can’t get something and that prices are justified

Hit the nail on the head.

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[bob sims]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Any time someone says something like, “bro, the values will never go down bro”, you know the prices are definitely going to go down. ;p

That's EXACTLY what older and supposedly smarter people told me in the 70's-when the day date was $3k and a suburban house was $25k.

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by stewester

I'd never like to call the top, but this patently isn't sustainable for for items produced in the hundreds of thousands per year and sold at a fraction of their secondary market price to the first owner.

As long as they make 800k watches a year and as long as the global demand FAR exceeds that prices are going either up or even. You will see gas under a dollar a gallon before you see the Panda under 30k.
A Mercury dime is worth 2 bucks-give or take.
A 1916 no mint mark Mercury dime is worth $25 in uncirculated condition.
A 1916-S Mercury dime is worth $25 in uncirculated condition is worth $25
A 1916-D Mercury dime is worth $9000.00 in uncirculated condition.
Why? Because it is rare.
How rare? "only" 264,000...
No one outside the US gives a damn about them. They were "mass produced" and retailed for a dime.
Now let the fact that there are only (to pick one model) fewer than 3000 of the OP 41's being produced per year for each collar...
See the light? and why those who are anticipating a meaningful price drop are whistling Dixie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_NfZLbCWFs

[thenewrick]

It would be interesting to crunch the numbers with some real life examples.

Actual purchase price+ taxes from AD from say 2 years ago for a Pepsi. Here that’s about $10,250.

Add 2 years of inflation. About 10% so need $11,250 to break even.

Get a cash offer from a Grey and subtract any fees or shipping and that’s the actual value of the watch over a 2 year period.

Compare that with standard rate of return like an index fund. Between 18-31% 2019-2021 so we’ll say 20% to be conservative. The initial capital would be worth $14,750 today compared to what a grey offers for a 2y old Pepsi. I don’t know what they are offering for them and I’m assuming it has box and papers and in excellent but worn condition. Anything better than a cash not credit offer of $11,250 would be an increase in value and anything greater than $14,750 would be beating a conservative standard investment in that time. These are low bars to reach with maybe one of the top 3 most hyped and inflated Rolex models?

Nobody cares about numbers and reality they just wanna see asking prices go up so they can say they paid msrp(never mention tax) then pretend they can sell their watch instantly with no advertising or payment fees for asking prices and say they doubled their investment instantly or some nonsense.

[extra260]

Originally Posted by bob sims

That's EXACTLY what older and supposedly smarter people told me in the 70's-when the day date was $3k and a suburban house was $25k.

its all relative, that same house is now $ 400k and the watch is $50k. so when the house is $800k the watch will be $100k. however, if that 3,000 was in the stock market since 1970 it would be worth $ 481,000 at 10% return.

[stewester]

Originally Posted by bob sims

As long as they make 800k watches a year and as long as the global demand FAR exceeds that prices are going either up or even. You will see gas under a dollar a gallon before you see the Panda under 30k.
A Mercury dime is worth 2 bucks-give or take.
A 1916 no mint mark Mercury dime is worth $25 in uncirculated condition.
A 1916-S Mercury dime is worth $25 in uncirculated condition is worth $25
A 1916-D Mercury dime is worth $9000.00 in uncirculated condition.
Why? Because it is rare.
How rare? "only" 264,000...
No one outside the US gives a damn about them. They were "mass produced" and retailed for a dime.
Now let the fact that there are only (to pick one model) fewer than 3000 of the OP 41's being produced per year for each collar...
See the light? and why those who are anticipating a meaningful price drop are whistling Dixie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_NfZLbCWFs

I won't pretend to understand the vagaries of the US coin market to the same extent as yourself, and I'm not saying a Daytona will be sub $30k tomorrow, but surely the rising secondary market prices cannot continue forever. At the point they do, a huge amount of the appeal goes away, along with the associated investment/speculative customers.

I admit I could never forsee a SS Oyster Perpetual with a colourful dial selling for 3x retail, but how much crazier can it really get? 5x, 6x retail? Is there not going to be a collective "what the hell is going on?" moment before they surpass things like Patek PM annual calendars, meaningful home deposit amounts etc.?

I'm not sure where the 3,000 figure for OP 41's comes from, but whatever the production number it will be double that in a year and probably more than double considering 20-21 production was Covid constrained. Can the demand really continue to soak that up on a year-on-year basis to the extent that prices continue to significantly rise? It seems fanciful to me, but we do seem to be living in crazy times...

[Watcheroo]

Originally Posted by Madman37

One of the worst investments worse than a Rolex is Banksy art. It’s not even art he sprays a stencil, a flipping stencil he doesn’t even do the picture himself it’s using a cut out. That’s how crazy the world is

Wait till you hear about NFTs!


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[Tavli3]

I found the article very old news. Nothing none of us didn’t know and discuss over and over


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[Dabbadon8]

I don't agree with raising MSRP to beat out greys. AP price raises over the last year or so amounting to 4k more for a 15450 was a big turn off (was offered a SS 15450 and Chrono about a year and a half ago, but passed because I just made another purchase, now I don't know if I'd pay 21k+ MSRP for a 15450). Occasional price raises are fine, but when you just charge more for the same product by a large margin it feels you're just getting ripped off. At least have some token upgrade to give the price raise cover.

I get supply and demand, but I rather see that play out in the grey market than have the manufacturer try to get in on the action. I like Rolex's more dignified price increases. I value my Rolex, in part, because they represent a good value proposition to me at MSRP. A completely inhouse product, with history and looks that I like, combined with a price tag that, to some extent, reflects that they are mass produced. I don't like feeling like I spent more than something is worth, be it grey or from AD. I'd like to think, whether it bears out or not, price should correlate with quality and cost to produce, as opposed to pure supply and demand.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Dabbadon8

I don't agree with raising MSRP to beat out greys. AP price raises over the last year or so amounting to 4k more for a 15450 was a big turn off (was offered a SS 15450 and Chrono about a year and a half ago, but passed because I just made another purchase, now I don't know if I'd pay 21k+ MSRP for a 15450). Occasional price raises are fine, but when you just charge more for the same product by a large margin it feels you're just getting ripped off. At least have some token upgrade to give the price raise cover.

I get supply and demand, but I rather see that play out in the grey market than have the manufacturer try to get in on the action. I like Rolex's more dignified price increases. I value my Rolex, in part, because they represent a good value proposition to me at MSRP. A completely inhouse product, with history and looks that I like, combined with a price tag that, to some extent, reflects that they are mass produced. I don't like feeling like I spent more than something is worth, be it grey or from AD. I'd like to think, whether it bears out or not, price should correlate with quality and cost to produce, as opposed to pure supply and demand.

That’s right, calls for Rolex to raise msrp quickly to match grey prices are ridiculous.

Kill the brand in a single stroke.

Plenty of ‘cures’ suggested here would in fact kill the patient.


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[teck21]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Sounds reasonable to me.

I'm not sure why there is this conception on TRF that Rolex would NEVER deploy a perceived scarcity strategy of any kind.

In marketing circles, "scarcity" is a bedrock of the luxury market, now more than ever as there are MORE PEOPLE with MORE MONEY than EVER before, so just being expensive alone isn't exclusionary enough.

There are countless marketing pieces about this available online. etc etc

https://www.markuskramer.net/scarcity-business-driver/

There are other luxury brands who are clearly deploying these strategies of limiting distribution...with great success (Hermes, AP, RM, Patek)...and these are generally accepted as doing so.

But when it comes to Rolex? NO. THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE. Rolex would never do such a thing to us. Unthinkable. Don't even mention it.

Rolex has a customer base way larger and way more diverse than these other brands, and this includes (quite obvious from this forum) a large number who don’t accept the brand’s luxury positioning (by insisting it is mass produced etc).

Rolex is all things to all people still, in a way PP is not.

This is probably why Rolex has to tread on eggshells whenever they have to answer questions.


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[superpop]

The other thing to keep in mind is that your garden variety Rolex buyer is probably a 1 or 2 and done buyer. Even with all the new millionaires being minted, I would assume they are not all buying several Rolex models over several years. Hype and wanna be watch flippers are distorting the market right now, that is not sustainable with a mass produced fashion item.

[grimps]

Originally Posted by Francist

If you compare rolex prices in the last 4-5 years against crypto / stocks / bonds, we're still way below.

Yeah but you can touch, feel ,wear and show a Rolex , crypto is just sat in cyber space.
People say that Rolex isn't a good investment but I'd say it's never been a bad one.
A few watches in a safe is a better and more enjoyable bet than money in the bank , currency devaluations and record low interest rates are making people realise that cash in the bank is a waste of time

[grimps]

Originally Posted by teck21

That’s right, calls for Rolex to raise msrp quickly to match grey prices are ridiculous.

Kill the brand in a single stroke.

Plenty of ‘cures’ suggested here would in fact kill the patient.


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If like me you've been buying Rolexes from the same dealer for more than 10 years you'd be pissed off if they suddenly doubled the price to satisfy new customers that are looking to buy for investment reasons.
I would bet that most buyers of new Rolex still get their watches at retail price

[bgmv]

Originally Posted by Madman37

One of the worst investments worse than a Rolex is Banksy art. It’s not even art he sprays a stencil, a flipping stencil he doesn’t even do the picture himself it’s using a cut out. That’s how crazy the world is

You sir will love NFTs.

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[Mendota]

Originally Posted by extra260

its all relative, that same house is now $ 400k and the watch is $50k. so when the house is $800k the watch will be $100k. however, if that 3,000 was in the stock market since 1970 it would be worth $ 481,000 at 10% return.

Not to mention that if you had put that $3,000 into gold itself in 1970 at $35 per ounce, instead of putting it into a gold Rolex with less than 75 grams of gold, the gold metal would be worth over 32 times more than the watch. You would have 85.71 ounces of gold had you invested in the metal, and at $1,755 per ounce that is $150,421 today.

Contrast this with the Rolex President Day Date (cut and pasted from an article quoting back here to TRF):

Weight break-down based on information originally on Rolexforums.com:

This is the actual gold values of the parts of a Rolex President Day-Date:

Case ring weighs 18.5 grams. Contains 13.875 grams of pure gold.
Case back weighs 7.21 grams. Contains 5.41 grams of pure gold.
Bezel weighs 5.30 grams. Contains 3.98 grams of pure gold.
The bracelet weighs 68.85 grams. Contains 51.64 grams of pure gold.

This is 74.91 grams, or 2.642 ounces of gold. At $1,755 per ounce, this Day Date has a value of $4,636.71 of gold.

Gold watches and jewelry in general have always been a sh#tty investment. You never, ever, ever buy a precious metal watch as an investment. You buy it because you want it, you like it, it is special to you, whatever your reasons are. The actual amount of precious metal in these things is marginal relative to the price paid and those dollars are ALWAYS better spent on the metal itself.

[RealMadrid1988]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

One thing I’ve noticed that is interesting to me is that as prices have increase, supply as also increased but examples aren’t selling as quickly. There’s plenty of supply and models are “sitting on shelves” of used jewelry vendors. They don’t have to sell all of them just one here and there to the person who’s willing to pay the price to get it now.

Because they aren’t scarce or rare and because there are a large supply of watches and prices are being artificially inflated by a select few of people willing to pay extra because of FOMO I see prices going down soon. Especially on models that have lost their social media appeal; Pepsi, Daytona, Hulk.

The game now is to see how long used jewelry vendors are willing to sit on inventory that isn’t moving without reducing prices.

I’m just using Chrono24 and recommended vendors as data points.

When vendors start seeing prices drop they will all begin undercutting each other because nobody wants to be caught holding the bag. The buyers paying 2x 3x retail don’t really care because they’re generally very wealthy to begin with. People paying that much above market value are not concerned with prices outside of a little bragging rights.

If you want a good price on a Rolex just be willing to wait until those holding supply can’t tolerate holding supply anymore. The past few years have been huge profits for used jewelry salesmen so there’s no reason for them to stop the profit party now. So if you’re a savvy buyer just wait.

As an aside when I was young I wondered what would happen if I put a pebble up for sale on EBay for $1 mil. I figured I didn’t have much to lose and you never know. Someone rich might buy it for a laugh or yolo. That’s essentially what’s happening now with certain luxury goods. People are just asking silly prices to see if anyone is willing to pay it. There’s been enough wealthy people willing to buy them here and there to sustain this phenomenon for the past few years but all trends end. These Beanie Babies will lose their Instagram appeal and the extra cash will go towards the new new.

So in short, I disagree with the author. Rolex aren’t scarce. Demand is artificial because models are increasing in supply at used jewelry vendors. Author needed to do more research over time to see the trends. Asking price isn’t actual sales and isn’t sales volume. Pebbles aren’t worth $1mil even if someone buys one for $1mil. Saying something is worth whatever someone pays for it isn’t a truism it’s sort of simpleton economics. A banana taped to a wall sold for $120,000 at Art Basel in Miami recently. This does not mean a banana taped to a wall is worth $120,000. It does not mean if you tape a banana to a wall you will be able to sell it for $120,000. It does not mean in the long run if there are several competing vendors all selling bananas taped to walls they will sell for $120,000.

Hope you enjoyed this mornings Rolex economy lesson. :)

Seems like you’re trying to convince yourself as much as anyone else. I haven’t seen anything to indicate that this market is ending anytime soon.

[thenewrick]

The point of the article was that Rolexes are scarce due to demand and low supply. I was just proving him wrong by giving examples of how demand hasn’t increased from consumers only other vendors who have found a way to get high margin profits from a very few people. Also showed that supply and availability has increased.

It is entirely possible that a very few number of price is no object consumers will continue to pay any price and potentially buy multiple of the same reference in which case the vendors can continue to increase supply and HODL for the odd whale purchase.

More than likely we will see the increasing supply and availability compound with the reduced consumption from pino consumers and see a price war for 2015-2021 models as we aren’t really seeing these phenomena with older references

[garyk]

A lot of speculation here but it’s certainly a very interesting subject. Maybe a disgruntled former Rolex executive will eventually spill the beans as to what the real answers are!

[thenewrick]

There was a post a few months back showing Rolex production numbers and shipments to which countries. They make more watches than people think and they increase production year over year as well as increase prices consistently. The big takeaway was China was by far their biggest customer and USA was a fraction of China consumption and all other markets much further behind. If China stops buying these things there will suddenly be either a lot of unemployed factory technicians or a bunch more models available in the rest of the world.

I was looking at a Christie’s auction some time ago and it was auctioning a Chinese collection of something like 500 watches in the multiple million range with dozens and dozens of Rolexes.