Watch Collecting in the 2020s vs 90s Beanie Baby Craze

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

The market for Omegas, Oris, Tag's. Obviously.

Ah

[donq]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Outperform what market over the next eight years?

I think he meant to say MSRP?
I’m not sure, the whole argument seems kind of vague and trollish to me.

People seem eager to compare anything on an upward pricing trend to a bubble, and immediately bring up tulips and beanie babies.

A true bubble is a rare thing, and the term is definitely overused.

There are lots of things that go up in price for decades, with minor fluctuations but an overall consistent upward path.

Rolex crossed a threshold at some point in the last 10 or 12 years in to being a commodity instead of jewelry. If the limited availability and high demand continue (and it seems they will) its not going to change any time soon. Rolex can only make so many watches, and they aren’t going to build a new factory in Thailand and start cranking out twice as many Submariners to cash in. It’s just not how they do business. The demand is super high right now, mostly due to social media and FOMO, but it is in a class that will defy being a mere trend. It’s like Coca Cola, Levi’s, Ferrari, Hermes, Louis Vuitton…a classic item that will endure far better than an item like a beanie baby.

I think there will be a correction of some sort when a major economic event occurs, but it won’t be the equivalent of a bubble popping, more of a slight drop and then a rebound like was experienced in 2008.

Prices are pretty crazy, and either Rolex will raise MSRP to get in line, or the market price will come back down closer to what Rolex considers reasonable. The first rule of luxury brands is to never discount your products. The brand name is the real product and it must be protected at all cost. With a Veblen good, unavailability and high cost are a defining trait.

[FrequentTrain]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Outperform what market over the next eight years?

Let’s just go with the S&P 500 but at least the American perspective would be a major US market index on this question.

[FrequentTrain]

Originally Posted by DRS Enabled

Rolexes are cheap right now. They've evolved as a brand and are no longer the everyday tool watch company of the past. That's Tudor now. Today it's a full on luxury brand. $20k Sub / $30k Pepsi / $50k Daytona is a fair price to own the same watch as the who's who of the world whether it's Messi, Ronaldo, LeBron, Drake. That just sounds fair to me.

When Subs are worth the down payment for a house then I think we're in a bubble.

RIP to the careers and celebrity of Sean Connery, Paul Newman, etc.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by FrequentTrain

Let’s just go with the S&P 500 but at least the American perspective would be a major US market index on this question.

Then my answer would be no

[Wee-Willie]

Originally Posted by FrequentTrain

There is no argument being advanced that beanie babies, as goods or as a brand, are like luxury watches or Rolexes, as goods or those brands. Just an analogy to the speculative exuberance that we’re all witnessing. Perhaps should’ve used the 90s tech boom analogy I suppose but tried to tie this into the article in the OP and also the notion of these being things we have traditionally collected but now with more speculators rushing in with pure investment motives.

I’d say oranges are more of a consumer staple item versus watches being a consumer discretionary good. No one “needs” a luxury watch.

I BEG your pardon???
I might not need a great watch, but I sure do love having them!!

[Wee-Willie]

Originally Posted by dEagle

At least 23 hours a day? Assuming you sleep with your watch on the wrist, what's the extra hour for?

I do sleep wearing it.only take it off for a morning shower!

[zengineer]

At least it's marginally better than the tulip bulb analogy.

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[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

Beanie Babies have a niche market, whereas the market for Rolex is literally half of the world's population.

Half the world's population has an annual income of less than $3k.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by DRS Enabled

$20k Sub / $30k Pepsi / $50k Daytona is a fair price to own the same watch as the who's who of the world whether it's Messi, Ronaldo, LeBron, Drake.

That strikes me as a pathetic rationale for spending my hard-earned cash.

[FrequentTrain]

https://apple.news/AfZ-IIV9cQeayOuY-E1j6OA
From Barron’s Penta - “Rolex Appreciation Beat Other Investments Over Past Decade”

[zengineer]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

That strikes me as a pathetic rationale for spending my hard-earned cash.

If that's all they want, buy a jersey.

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[Gab27]

I don't think it is a great comparison, but I do find it to be pretty wild that I tried on a Rolex a few months ago and, today, it is selling for about $50,000 more than it was when I tried it on. I would call that a bit of a craze. I have no idea what will happen next. Either way, I like my Sub.

[ugoblue]

The impending Russian invasion of Ukraine may spark a global recession. Oil and natural gas prices will soar. There could be a stock market crash. The Fed probably doesn't have the power to print money without creating inflation-even in the recession.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by ugoblue

The impending Russian invasion of Ukraine may spark a global recession. Oil and natural gas prices will soar. There could be a stock market crash. The Fed probably doesn't have the power to print money without creating inflation-even in the recession.

Yep. You think the white Daytona is expensive now.... boy oh boy... buy the dealer dump dip and hang on.

[ltmgeller]

I see the market stabilizing. It can't keep going up like this.

[zengineer]

Let's forget for a moment that it is a massively flawed comparison given that one is a high priced luxury item and one is a toy affordable by anyone with a job or welfare check...

What killed the beanie babies was the internet.

In the olden days if you were a model train, toy or coin collector you had local shows, maybe a quarterly newsletter and maybe an annual price guide based on sketchy information. You had to guess at overall rarity, demand and reasonable prices.

Today you can instantly know how many of a given type are on the market, what they are selling for, see pictures of condition and much more. I am not a big toy train guy but have a pre-WWII Lionel that I inherited. In the 1980's a price guide would have called it $10,000. Then one showed up on Antiques Road Show, they started coming out of attics, and then Ebay came along and it becomes clear they aren't all that rare and suddenly it's $3500.

The recent Rolex spike is all well after those technology developments. Yes, Instagram fuels it but it hasn't been the technology revolution that spanned the beanie craze.


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[TswaneNguni]

Flattening of the curve,for sure
Waiting for the dip ? Going to wait a looong time .

[FrequentTrain]

Originally Posted by zengineer

Let's forget for a moment that it is a massively flawed comparison given that one is a high priced luxury item and one is a toy affordable by anyone with a job or welfare check...

What killed the beanie babies was the internet.

In the olden days if you were a model train, toy or coin collector you had local shows, maybe a quarterly newsletter and maybe an annual price guide based on sketchy information. You had to guess at overall rarity, demand and reasonable prices.

Today you can instantly know how many of a given type are on the market, what they are selling for, see pictures of condition and much more. I am not a big toy train guy but have a pre-WWII Lionel that I inherited. In the 1980's a price guide would have called it $10,000. Then one showed up on Antiques Road Show, they started coming out of attics, and then Ebay came along and it becomes clear they aren't all that rare and suddenly it's $3500.

The recent Rolex spike is all well after those technology developments. Yes, Instagram fuels it but it hasn't been the technology revolution that spanned the beanie craze.


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I understand that the type of goods are very different. I also agree that the internet today provides better feedback than 20 plus years ago.

But do we think that a watch will be the “it” item that it is today indefinitely? It seems this trend comes and goes — years where watches are all the rage followed by years of being more niche. I’m sure 2022 will be another year of the watch but do not think that current prices paid in 2022 will look so great in a decade.

[thenewrick]

Anytime there's a new craze where people read articles/social media about how you can actually gain money buying at retail prices and flipping you'll see the same trends. Happening with GPUs, sneakers, Rolex, PS5 etc. All of these goods are collectible and easily flippable and you can store them easily etc. It's not like a car or a house.

What will change things is when the Grey price to flippers is equal or lower than retail price. Then the incentive for the new comers/flippers/investors will go away and it'll return to 2015 type situation where half the references will be still hard to get and slowly appreciate and half will be easy to get and slowly depreciate.

Ppl all panicking about this stuff is lame. Chill out. I feel like I'm watching people trample each other for black friday sales or something. Everyone wants a lifehack on how to get these things at retail more easily without spending any money.

Gotta pay to play. Or wait.

Market will return to normal soon. Just remember those OP's and DJ's are the same quality or better than the Daytona or other hype pieces. Rolex doesn't make the easier to get ones any worse and they're often newer designs/movements with more comfortable cases and bracelets.

A black dial OP36 is 100% as good or better than a Platona or a Meteorite Dial GMT or a Cermit etc. In Rolexes case price =/ quality. The "flex" is the price. It's just a money flex. Money flexes are not cool and never will be. Just relax folks.

They're still making these things in massive quantities. Many of the buyers are just flippers. It's not a sustainable model.

Also remember there are a lot of flippers/investors/greys on this forum. Take everything with a grain of salt.

[EEpro]

You had me at chrono24 screenshot post 7. Subscribed.

[zengineer]

Originally Posted by FrequentTrain

I understand that the type of goods are very different. I also agree that the internet today provides better feedback than 20 plus years ago.



But do we think that a watch will be the “it” item that it is today indefinitely? It seems this trend comes and goes — years where watches are all the rage followed by years of being more niche. I’m sure 2022 will be another year of the watch but do not think that current prices paid in 2022 will look so great in a decade.

The point is that if we want to look for clues and parallels we can do better than bean bag toys and tulips. We could look to classic cars but that only works for long discontinued and popular models. An Olds 442 Convertible is selling in the stratosphere but not every 50 year old Oldsmobile is.

Every new Corvette model sells at a premium when first release. Ignore the latest C8 due to covid and they all settle down and annual sales drop 15%/year until a new one comes out.

I'll just say what I've said in other threads. Long term I think rare and popular discontinued models will go nowhere but up. I believe current production SS models have overshot sustainable prices. I don't see a Daytona, while it is in short supply it is also still being made, going up much beyond today's price...and I'll go so far as predicting it back in the low 30's later this year. No need to tell me you think otherwise or try to change my mind. I don't want one so I kinda don't care.



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[EEpro]

I hope so. I'd snag a black dial 500 this time at $29,999.

[zengineer]

Originally Posted by EEpro

I hope so. I'd snag a black dial 500 this time at $29,999.

You shouldn't quote me so fast, I need at least 3 tries to correct my typos...
I'm sure you are not alone and as long as Rolex "regulates" supply that's probably the short term floor price. It's also $20k more than the AD will have paid for it the week before.

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[EEpro]

Originally Posted by zengineer

You shouldn't quote me so fast, I need at least 3 tries to correct my typos...
I'm sure you are not alone and as long as Rolex "regulates" supply that's probably the short term floor price. It's also $20k more than the AD will have paid for it the week before.

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Unquoted. Lol. Except for this most recent quote.


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[gccmd]

Originally Posted by Wee-Willie

I do sleep wearing it.only take it off for a morning shower!

You take long showers!!!

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

Anytime there's a new craze where people read articles/social media about how you can actually gain money buying at retail prices and flipping you'll see the same trends. Happening with GPUs, sneakers, Rolex, PS5 etc. All of these goods are collectible and easily flippable and you can store them easily etc. It's not like a car or a house.

What will change things is when the Grey price to flippers is equal or lower than retail price. Then the incentive for the new comers/flippers/investors will go away and it'll return to 2015 type situation where half the references will be still hard to get and slowly appreciate and half will be easy to get and slowly depreciate.

Ppl all panicking about this stuff is lame. Chill out. I feel like I'm watching people trample each other for black friday sales or something. Everyone wants a lifehack on how to get these things at retail more easily without spending any money.

Gotta pay to play. Or wait.

Market will return to normal soon. Just remember those OP's and DJ's are the same quality or better than the Daytona or other hype pieces. Rolex doesn't make the easier to get ones any worse and they're often newer designs/movements with more comfortable cases and bracelets.

A black dial OP36 is 100% as good or better than a Platona or a Meteorite Dial GMT or a Cermit etc. In Rolexes case price =/ quality. The "flex" is the price. It's just a money flex. Money flexes are not cool and never will be. Just relax folks.

They're still making these things in massive quantities. Many of the buyers are just flippers. It's not a sustainable model.

Also remember there are a lot of flippers/investors/greys on this forum. Take everything with a grain of salt.

Great post.

I will add, as a buyer/collector the wait to get what I desire actually makes me appreciate the watch that much more. I generally always try to find the silver lining in things though.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Time Out

Great post.

I will add, as a buyer/collector the wait to get what I desire actually makes me appreciate the watch that much more. I generally always try to find the silver lining in things though.

So true. My AD actually told me he loves that I tell him I have plenty of watches and don't mind waiting/dreaming about the next one. We've agreed that 9-12 months is a good pace for us both.

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by EEpro

So true. My AD actually told me he loves that I tell him I have plenty of watches and don't mind waiting/dreaming about the next one. We've agreed that 9-12 months is a good pace for us both.

Thats great. I have three already and while I would love another, if for some reason that doesn't happen I am very happy with my current collection and am very happy to own what I have.