Huge % increase in 116500 availability on Chrono

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by chet

Less than 10 years ago, you could get a discount to MSRP on Rolex and today many models are trading for multiples of MSRP. That is not sustainable IMO.

I agree but not the SS Daytona and that is the X factor no one really knows how high it still might go. It’s never been a common display case model for decades even before this madness. A $20k Black SS Sub seems to be here so extrapolate that and you kinda see all the other price points are in their own inflated placement. You will see other models price points fall way before the SS Daytona does because other advantages keeping it separate marching to a different drummer when/if a market correct happens. In the end it doesn’t matter. They are just watches and no one “needs” or is forcing anyone to buy them. After a lot of my own kicking and screaming a few years back, I have come to the conclusion that the old days we were use to are long gone. Life is too short and I can’t buy anymore time on this earth.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl whose AD said
the ceramic Daytona is being discontinued..

I guess it's pretty serious.

Hahaha

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl whose AD said
the ceramic Daytona is being discontinued..

I guess it's pretty serious.

No that was Mrs Potato head and my dealer said so. If that happens the grey market will dump Mr Clean and Mrs Butterworth in a fire sale leaving Dr Pepper and Mr PiBB to battle it out.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I agree but not the SS Daytona and that is the X factor no one really knows how high it still might go. It’s never been a common display case model for decades even before this madness. A $20k Black SS Sub seems to be here so extrapolate that and you kinda see all the other price points are in their own inflated placement. You will see other models price points fall way before the SS Daytona does because other advantages keeping it separate marching to a different drummer when/if a market correct happens. In the end it doesn’t matter. They are just watches and no one “needs” or is forcing anyone to buy them. After a lot of my own kicking and screaming a few years back, I have come to the conclusion that the old days we were use to are long gone. Life is too short and I can’t buy anymore time on this earth.

I think you are absolutely correct. No matter what happens, those old days are never coming back. Very happy to have what I have!

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by garyk

I think you are absolutely correct. No matter what happens, those old days are never coming back. Very happy to have what I have!

Todays market really makes you focus a lot more if you are thinking of adding a model. The old days were less stressful buying a Rolex. You got to try on multiple models and go home and think about it only to have the AD call you the next few days and offer a discount over the phone to make the sale.
I feel sorry for the newbies trying to make sense of the market let alone knowing little about the watches and not able to even touch one.

[DaveTheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Is this fake news, wishful thinking, or another anti-Daytona thread??

There are 71 white SS Daytonas on C24 in the USA right now. Those numbers are about spot on as they were in Dec 2021. There is no change I have seen other than they are higher $$$ and I have been following white SS Daytona’s the last 12 months. There was 102 in the USA in October of 2021.

Pretty clear in the USA. Notice the basic filtering including all models even ones without a full set. That’s 71 total.

I was going to respond with the same note


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[Starhutch]

Originally Posted by garyk

Hahaha

Gary, think it’s time to que the panda on this thread if you know what I mean

[Maxy]

Originally Posted by dommasters

I have been following the 116500 availability on Chrono24. In the last six weeks the number is up by around 50%. Why might this be? As of tonight there are 554 available compared to 378 six weeks ago.

Right before new watches announcement, they want to cash out hot models incase there's new models to buy!

[chet]

Originally Posted by garyk

I think you are absolutely correct. No matter what happens, those old days are never coming back. Very happy to have what I have!

So a watch/vacation home/car market heavily affected by a once in a lifetime pandemic combined with easy money and handouts will change each of those markets forever? I respectfully disagree.

[Cauhauna]

Originally Posted by chet

So a watch/vacation home/car market heavily affected by a once in a lifetime pandemic combined with easy money and handouts will change each of those markets forever? I respectfully disagree.

you've failed to consider social media influencer culture, crypto, NFTs, and swiss sports watches being considered as a store of value. These are the real drivers behind the price increases, imo.


Food for thought with regards to that store of value comment:
$1M in 100s weighs 22 pounds, and is rather physically large
$1M in 116500 white dials weighs ~7 pounds, and with watch/card only, they could all (easily) fit in a shoe box

If I was in organized crime, i'd most certainly be buying watches en masse as a store of value. a single patek 5711 is what... 150k? 200k?

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by dommasters

Total shown is 554 on website here in UK.

37 in the UK on Chrono24

[garyk]

Originally Posted by chet

So a watch/vacation home/car market heavily affected by a once in a lifetime pandemic combined with easy money and handouts will change each of those markets forever? I respectfully disagree.

Whatever happens, possibly things could change but the old days of 40+ years ago where you could walk into an AD, browse through dozens and dozens of models and variations and negotiate a discount, ain’t coming back anytime soon. Too many things would have to change for that to happen. People on here predicted a huge change when the pandemic hit but didn’t count on other situations like the Swiss watch industry shutting down and furloughing workers for many months on end or supply chain problems. Just my opinion watching what’s happened to Rolex and other brands over many years regardless of global situations.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Starhutch

Gary, think it’s time to que the panda on this thread if you know what I mean

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[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Is this fake news, wishful thinking, or another anti-Daytona thread??

Where are the black ones?

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

These things are RARE $100k+ to the m00n. Rolex only makes 7 each year!

Fools and their money


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[rolexpure]

Ppl cashing out.

I know 3 members of my watch club that have cashed out in the last week.

2 sold for cash and 1 of them traded it for a DD40 and he added some cash on top. The cash offer from the grays wont be anywhere near $50k though.

[Langnam]

Weird. I just wear my Daytona.


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[rmwill]

Only 330 are listed as "available now", and half of the remainder are listed with stock photography are also source to order ghost listings. If anyone thinks C24 searches are an accurate way to determine market value, they are a fool. I can put up a ghost listing at no cost and if a fool bites, I can source the watch also.

[zengineer]

I'm not sure I would characterize having $15k watches priced at $45k as improved "availability".

If someone with money wants one, there only needs to be one for sale.

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[zengineer]

Originally Posted by franklee168

133 available now in the USA
382 available now worldwide

133 listings, some number less than that actual watches.

As others have stated, if a dealer knows he can get one from another dealer for $43k, they simply create a listing at $47k and hope. No different than the thousands of Ebay sellers who seek out things on sale at Amazon or Gilt or other places, list on Ebay for 20% more and hope to catch people who don't comparison shop. I have bought small $20-30 items on Ebay on a whim only to have them show up from Amazon. Some dude in his basement with a computer and a Prime account makes $3 x 100 times week makes beer & pizza money.

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[travisb]

Originally Posted by boogiebot

IMO it’s due to the pricing. I think people want to cash out where they can.


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This would be my guess.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by dommasters

I have been following the 116500 availability on Chrono24. In the last six weeks the number is up by around 50%. Why might this be? As of tonight there are 554 available compared to 378 six weeks ago.

Because sellers can ask anything they want, does not mean they will get it.

[bombardior]

Originally Posted by Mystro

It’s not just Rolex but AP and PP. When has Rolex ever taken a serious depreciation dump over the last 40 years?? Worst case scenario is you might see a slight market correction.
There are lots of luxury items mass produced that trade way above their msrp. It’s a new luxury playing field in this economy that seems to be touching even more common items besides luxury watches.

The internet sure has a short memory? when has it ever occurred in history where a mass produced item sells for that much over MSRP continuously? even for rolex, this is a phenomenon that has only occurred in the past ~5 years...... sure there were no price dumps in the past 40 years, but a price hike like this is also unprecedented

[edisonstar23]

Originally Posted by chet

Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

We have all heard that quote and somehow people ignore it. I do believe that the watch market as it used to be its long gone. However, all these speculators, watch investors and Instagram Flexers will realize that they way over paid for their timepiece. I personally think there will be a major correction, not just a little dip.

This current watch market is primarily driven by speculation and driven by the same factors (inflation) that are moving prices of everything to the moon. There was a recent poster that was getting charged $80K+ for a 46K KIA!!! Like come on, these prices can't be sustained.

WE ARE MOST LIKELY HEADING TO A RECESSION - UNLESS THE GOV DECIDES TO KEEP PRINTING MONEY TO ARTIFICALLY SUSTAIN THE ECONOMY.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by chet

So a watch/vacation home/car market heavily affected by a once in a lifetime pandemic combined with easy money and handouts will change each of those markets forever? I respectfully disagree.

Covid didnt change anything for people that were financially comfortable. If anything they made even more money.
The Rolex fever/shortage upward projectory started years before Covid. Covid just fanned the flames even hotter. Even if demand went back to pre Covid days it would not look much different in the prices today.

Spring and summer is always an uptick in the watch market but I suspect now that people are going out on vacation without Covid restrictions will splurge even more on the watch they want for summer. It’s the perfect storm. We will see.

On a similar theme: I am spending big money on a family vacation we haven’t taken in 2 years. I could care less on the cost and may even stop in to DavidSW Orlando store tempting another watch purchase.

[desertwanderer]

Originally Posted by Mystro

It’s not just Rolex but AP and PP. When has Rolex ever taken a serious depreciation dump over the last 40 years?? Worst case scenario is you might see a slight market correction.
There are lots of luxury items mass produced that trade way above their msrp. It’s a new luxury playing field in this economy that seems to be touching even more common items besides luxury watches.

Vacheron also! A little over two years ago i was being offered the Overseas blue face with a discount.... now its at least 3X Retail in the Gray market. Who are all these people who suddenly decided this was a hot watch yet didnt really want it 3 years ago!?

[chet]

Originally Posted by Cauhauna

you've failed to consider social media influencer culture, crypto, NFTs, and swiss sports watches being considered as a store of value. These are the real drivers behind the price increases, imo.


Food for thought with regards to that store of value comment:
$1M in 100s weighs 22 pounds, and is rather physically large
$1M in 116500 white dials weighs ~7 pounds, and with watch/card only, they could all (easily) fit in a shoe box

If I was in organized crime, i'd most certainly be buying watches en masse as a store of value. a single patek 5711 is what... 150k? 200k?

Anyone using watches as a store of value is both foolish and idiotic and, IMO, will be in for a rude awakening if and when they try to liquidate. The watch "market" isn't a market--for one, there aren't any published bids to hit. If you want to sell, you can list your watches and hope someone takes the offer or you can sell for a discount to retail price to an AD or grey dealer. The above obviously doesn't apply to a collector selling a Daytona or 5711.

Prices have gone up quickly and can go down a lot faster than they went up. Volatility isn't a one way street and correlations increase in a down market.

The fact that someone is applying "store of value" to watches indicates there is rampant speculation and as I said elsewhere, be fearful when others are greedy.

[trout_thumper21]

People taking profits and people who could not afford these types of luxury goods in the first place seeing the writing on the wall…feeble “leadership” and United States recession incoming

[rum77]

The price increase is just crazy!

[2loaded]

90% of C24 web traffic must be price checkers?