Will we get back to normal pricing?

[Henrimontgomery]

Never. Only when nukes start flying you will see a decrease in prices. Although grey will keep pushing for 2x MSRP minimum while offering you 60% below market price.

[Adam84]

Simple really. When supply outstrips demand.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by Time Out

LMAO.

Patek makes about 60k watches a year
AP makes about 40k watches a year

Rolex makes 1 million + watches a year and climbing

AP / Patek = Ferrari

Rolex = Chevrolet

Chevrolet doesn't pinch off production to have inflated secondary numbers and neither will Rolex.

LMAO.

Quantity is totally irrelevant. I could care less if Rolex makes 20 billion watches, if the world wants 21 billion watches.

You’re conflating exclusivity with actual demand.

I seriously have no idea what point you’re trying to make.

LMAO.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[hondacb1002]

Originally Posted by Adam84

Simple really. When supply outstrips demand.

so when the bailouts stop? the bailouts allow for this radically increased demand imo. its not like poor ppl are getting bailed out at the same rate the wealthy are. The demand is being fueled by the money printers imo. Without all that easy money via bailouts there isn't all this extra cash for luxury items.

[Klendo]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

LMAO.

Quantity is totally irrelevant. I could care less if Rolex makes 20 billion watches, if the world wants 21 billion watches.

You’re conflating exclusivity with actual demand.

I seriously have no idea what point you’re trying to make.

LMAO.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Exactly I have no
Idea what point is being made here. There’s one fundamental point that’s being missed here is the other companies mentioned have share holders

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by hondacb1002

so when the bailouts stop? the bailouts allow for this radically increased demand imo. its not like poor ppl are getting bailed out at the same rate the wealthy are. The demand is being fueled by the money printers imo. Without all that easy money via bailouts there isn't all this extra cash for luxury items.

What "bailouts"?

You have not answered my question with respect to the M2

[enjoythemusic]

[Frog7151]

Some real 1st world problems here, lol....

[stockae92]

When Rolex is back to normal pricing, you wouldn't want to buy them any more.

[hondacb1002]

beshannon
-Why?

because prices will reach actual market values. instead of the artifical values they are at now from all the bailouts.

-M2 has been growing for the last 25 years. Where are prices going to go back to?

I don't know where prices are going to. However prices are not reaching market clearnace because of the bailouts. Do you disagree with this numerical fact?

-What "bailouts"?

In 2008 there were banking bailouts from the banks giving out so many loans that could never be paid back. Banks were not allowed to fail and the new norm became bailouts. Imagine banks failing at giving out loans, and then being allowed to stay in business. Covid happens and instead of companies being punished for not saving for a rainy day (like an adult) they are propped up by money printing. Prices are not reaching Market Clearance. Instead we have an artificial market that is created with a goverenment handing out money to companies that should not be in business if it were not for the bailout bucks.

Originally Posted by stockae92

When Rolex is back to normal pricing, you wouldn't want to buy them any more.

very few will be able to afford them. the reason why it is hard to get a rolex for msrp from an ad is because of the easy money, the bailout bucks. that is why there is so much demand, artificial demand from the $

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

LMAO.

Quantity is totally irrelevant. I could care less if Rolex makes 20 billion watches, if the world wants 21 billion watches.

You’re conflating exclusivity with actual demand.

I seriously have no idea what point you’re trying to make.

LMAO.

If the market goes inside out and backwards. If greys are losing their shirts and going bankrupt. If the price of a Panda dial Daytona suddenly drops to 1/2 of retail, Rolex will continue to churn out a million plus watches.

Rolex does not care if a "trusted seller" loses everything.

When demand tapers, Rolex will steam ahead at max capacity. A million plus watches a year, demand will be satisfied at some point.

That's the point.

[JRell]

I honestly think it will get back to normal prices aftermarket. I don’t think this social media craze for Rolex will continue forever.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by Time Out

I have proprietary data from the used car market and housing that I cannot legally show but there has been a decrease north of 5% ( I have the exact percentage ) and a downward trajectory line. Take what I said as opinion if you will but the rocket is out of fuel.

Hilarious

Keep on posting, it’s comedy gold…..and, yes, I have interests in 3 companies in the automotive sector and a partnership in 2 property based companies here in the Uk so we have daily access the real world markets.

[McDusty]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Why?

United States Money Supply M2



M2 has been growing for the last 25 years. Where are prices going to go back to?

Comment on how much of that M2 is getting into the real US economy here: https://twitter.com/DeepThroatIPO/st...97580209922053

Netflix expects to lose 2 million subscribers this quarter. Surely if everyone has bailout bucks, your not worried about cutting back on tv/movies.

[S7gpt]

hopefully we will see pricing similar to around 2009 next year. Can't wait to turn down that Pepsi at the AD after securing a 20% discount..

[GW44]

Originally Posted by S7gpt

hopefully we will see pricing similar to around 2009 next year. Can't wait to turn down that Pepsi at the AD after securing a 20% discount..

Spoken like a true (ever hopeful) Yorkshireman

[Adam84]

Originally Posted by hondacb1002

so when the bailouts stop? the bailouts allow for this radically increased demand imo. its not like poor ppl are getting bailed out at the same rate the wealthy are. The demand is being fueled by the money printers imo. Without all that easy money via bailouts there isn't all this extra cash for luxury items.

As I said, when supply outstrips demand.

Take the U.K. Where I am for example. Demand is high because those who kept a job, spent less through COVID. As inflation increases and so do bills, disposable income and cheap money will decrease, as will demand.

As the easy money ends, demand will decrease

[GW44]

Originally Posted by Adam84

As I said, when supply outstrips demand.

So that’s, basically, never going to happen for Rolex.

[Rrpdc]

Never going going to happen for Rolex!

[WantBlue15202]

Rolex probably enjoys some premium over MSRP as it generates significant spillover interest in Tudor, and they've got unlimited demand on the mainline brand while building a very strong reputation for their other product offering.

Compared to most other watches outside of AP/Patek/VC - Tudor's hold their value from MSRP much better than Omega, Longines, Cartier, etc...

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by LVx2

Day Dates over retail is something I still can’t wrap my head around, lol

Yeah they went from 43k in November to 52-53k by end of January.

[Danny83]

Buy the dip

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by McDusty

Netflix expects to lose 2 million subscribers this quarter. Surely if everyone has bailout bucks, your not worried about cutting back on tv/movies.

The have-nots are getting squeezed, yet many haves have more, much more.

[alphadweller]

Iconic models won't go back to normal pricing, i.e. anywhere close to RRP. However, we might see further corrections in the short term, despite the long term positive trend. Nothing like a crash though.

[WatchGuy1966]

Originally Posted by LVx2

Day Dates over retail is something I still can’t wrap my head around, lol

It seems as if they were going up $2k per week in Jan-Feb-Mar.

[NYG1121]

SS daytona will settle around $22k

[S7gpt]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBlm5llItzk

[rmwill]

Someone else is getting a handout and you can't buy a watch at MSRP... Veruca Salt much?

Originally Posted by hondacb1002

so when the bailouts stop? the bailouts allow for this radically increased demand imo. its not like poor ppl are getting bailed out at the same rate the wealthy are. The demand is being fueled by the money printers imo. Without all that easy money via bailouts there isn't all this extra cash for luxury items.

[amh]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

SS daytona will settle around $22k

[Cp827]

Originally Posted by Madison1

I was looking at a grey market Olive Dial RG DD40 it started at 65 then 62 and now 59 in the space of a week. Catching a falling knife comes to mind.

Hopefully we can get back to a new normal soon and perhaps this correlates to an uptick in new incoming posts on this forum.

As others have said I don't think we will see under retail but may stabalise at a 10-20% premium

Juat my observations.

Where did you see this watch for 59k or 65k? With olive dial?