Has the Rolex Secondary Market Stabilized?

[Mathematoxic]

I believe it’s in the tanking stage. Couple of people started buying but the volume is very low and slow. Considering the demand of Rolex, signs of market stabilising would be watches being sold off fairly quick. This happens when the asking prices are at the right point.

[Mrngrz46]

About the market certainly not touched the minimum.

Few reason: China still in covid mode, the FED still rising interest with inflation growing and Russia..we know. Last but not least this time of the year summer is always slow.

All of those points concur to each other and affect the market in negative way.

August could be last call since then October the fever will restart for Christmas…but this year is special.

In general for Watch in production I would buy when I see the ceramic daytona (I consider it a market indicator) at 20-25k. For the 14060m I would probably wait 2 months more from now.

[taitun4life]

Originally Posted by moondoggy

stabilised.....not a chance, it is currently sitting in unknown territory, the greys are holding and hoping, the buyers are holding and hoping.

Buying now is utter madness, unless your ash tray is over flowing.

100%

[DonLee]

options here are way too limited.

Most likely is that No, it's still volatile, moving up and down. And will be some time before stability comes in.

[Fleetlord]

Dealers are definitely lowering their "Bid" offers to try to get ahead of what they think might happen...

But it seems peeps are still buying, which means a slow decrease in prices to match the slow decrease in buying.

That being said, on those references, no shame in waiting to acquire via retail.

The 14060M 4L might not go down as much as the hyped modern watches, so if you see one you really like, then you might be ok getting one now.

[shammad10]

If you were after a really hyped model that had tens of thousands to go down then I would definitely wait. But on a 14060 at it’s potential minimum it’ll go down a further 1-2k?
You could probably go for one if you found one in good condition without losing much sleep. And if you want to keep and wear it then I suppose the market value doesn’t really matter much.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Nico81

If you are waiting for 14060M to go down to $6k, its not going to happen
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Definitely agree with you on that my friend.

[ninjin]

Discontinued and vintage will have a minor downward adjustment.

Current model (which you can buy at AD) prices will fall substantially. The higher the overs, the bigger the fall.

[brandrea]

The 5 digit I’m considering hasn’t budged

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by brandrea

The 5 digit I’m considering hasn’t budged

It won’t…… discontinued full sets are here to stay and very collectible

[1William]

Not being an informed buyer of five digit Rolex watches I can only say from my observations that models, especially Submariners, may dip slightly but the price seem to stay consistent or move up. For a newer model Submariner, my favorite to date, I would shop the major Trusted Sellers and see what the prices are when you actually talk to them not just look on the website. When you get that number you can see the difference between MSRP with Tax and the Trusted Seller number. I have a tendency to move on watches that are within a few thousand, 2-5k, of the MSRP number. I am not made of money nor do I like paying more than necessary but I also do not like AD games and waiting without a firm date of arrival. I also tend to just go on with it once I buy a watch and do not really think about the price I paid. Good luck and let us know what you decide.

[AF_Rob]

I have a GMT function with my ExII and find the Sub more functional as a daily, IMO.

You’re eyeing both the current and previous model Subs, so, it seems you are secure in what you like.

If you like it, get it now. Years from now, a few thousand here or there will not matter. The indecision and passing opportunities will matter.


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[enjoythemusic]

Since the Federal Reserve's US Dollar product, EU Central Bank's Euro scheme, Yen, etc lose ~50% of value every decade or so is to these bankers considered stable, then a Rolex of intrinsic value gaining about ~50% during the same time period means timepiece prices are stable.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by brandrea

The 5 digit I’m considering hasn’t budged

Same. I feel your pain.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by 1William

Not being an informed buyer of five digit Rolex watches I can only say from my observations that models, especially Submariners, may dip slightly but the price seem to stay consistent or move up. For a newer model Submariner, my favorite to date, I would shop the major Trusted Sellers and see what the prices are when you actually talk to them not just look on the website. When you get that number you can see the difference between MSRP with Tax and the Trusted Seller number. I have a tendency to move on watches that are within a few thousand, 2-5k, of the MSRP number. I am not made of money nor do I like paying more than necessary but I also do not like AD games and waiting without a firm date of arrival. I also tend to just go on with it once I buy a watch and do not really think about the price I paid. Good luck and let us know what you decide.

Will do William.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Since the Federal Reserve's US Dollar product, EU Central Bank's Euro scheme, Yen, etc lose ~50% of value every decade or so is to these bankers considered stable, then a Rolex of intrinsic value gaining about ~50% during the same time period means timepiece prices are stable.

You have a point.

[HogwldFLTR]

[Sandpit]

Buy the 5 digit. Good pieces are getting increasingly harder to find.

I bought a 2010 16610 2 years ago. I haven’t looked back once.

[malba2366]

Originally Posted by Njkdog

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think one point at this gentleman might be making, is he doesn’t want prices to rise sky high, while he’s waiting for them to drop, and have missed a good opportunity. Nobody wants to spend more money than they have to. And we all know prices are going to go up, it’s just a matter of when? A month, year, 10 years? I guarantee in 30 years from now the prices will be higher than they are now. But it’s just when within that time will it happen? He doesn’t want to miss the boat, I don’t blame him. I’d say, if the watch is worth the current price to you, buy it. You might get lucky at an authorized dealer, you might not. But if you have the money, and it’s worth it to you, do it. That way a price drop will sting less bad if you truly though it was worth it at the price you paid

The Grey market is not a normal market for current mass produced goods, nor a gauge of what one should pay for such goods. If you are talking about vintage models, obviously a different story.

The Rolex shortage started in 2015 or 2016...for over a hundred years before that Rolex watches were largely available at retail. Read up about the tulip mania. This is no different, mechanical watches in 2022 are devices of marginal utility and they are not too far off from tulip bulbs in the 1600s.

Once things normalize, the value of the watches will increase over time as the MSRP increases, but if you pay current grey prices for some of the more desirable pieces this may not happen for a very long time.

[rolex16]

If you buy a 5 digit sub now and it still goes down a bit, I believe you stand to have "overpaid" by a couple of thousand $ max. Not a big deal and a far cry from the tens of thousands folks will have overpaid on the current production hype models. If I were looking for that watch and I found a nice example, I'd buy it now.

[RoscoPico]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Trying to decide whether to wait for the call or go grey. Not buying for an investment, but not not averse to saving some money.

Seems to me like the tales of falling prices have gone mute.

Your view?

I voted going down, although I don't think the bottom will entirely fall out. I just went gray on a SkyD because it was within "reason" from msrp. I just couldn't wait any longer to scratch my itch

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by Njkdog

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think one point at this gentleman might be making, is he doesn’t want prices to rise sky high, while he’s waiting for them to drop, and have missed a good opportunity. Nobody wants to spend more money than they have to. And we all know prices are going to go up, it’s just a matter of when? A month, year, 10 years? I guarantee in 30 years from now the prices will be higher than they are now. But it’s just when within that time will it happen? He doesn’t want to miss the boat, I don’t blame him. I’d say, if the watch is worth the current price to you, buy it. You might get lucky at an authorized dealer, you might not. But if you have the money, and it’s worth it to you, do it. That way a price drop will sting less bad if you truly though it was worth it at the price you paid

Don't think economics is your strong point.

[fskywalker]

Well if you are OK paying over retail then go ahead! For me either used (price under retail) or if new retail plus tax or nothing


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[beshannon]

I am to busy enjoying seeking out other brands with better technology and designs to even notice.

[csaltphoto]

I've kept an eye on 14060M 4-liners since I bought mine 3 and a half years ago. Price has about doubled with less and less really nice ones available. Current pricing seems to be less than 10% off its peak which might reflect the market or might be something else entirely. There seems to be a continuous demand for "Classic" subs though. And while this is just conjecture I would guess that people wanting one are more educated about Rolexes in general since it takes a little digging to unlock the nuances. These people are going to want the whole box and papers experience since they are fans. I did.

You could also buy a completely thrashed one, sent if off to RSC and get a nearly new watch back with a warranty which makes it's own kind of sense but for some reason seems to appeal less to discerning buyers.

[G3Z]

Five digits are a solid bet. Discontinued and are the classic style but useable era.

[ltmgeller]

If we could predict the future, we'd all be billionaires.

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Since the Federal Reserve's US Dollar product, EU Central Bank's Euro scheme, Yen, etc lose ~50% of value every decade or so is to these bankers considered stable, then a Rolex of intrinsic value gaining about ~50% during the same time period means timepiece prices are stable.

If only there were more than two options for use of funds beyond either sitting in cash or buying a Rolex.

For fun I earmarked some cash after selling a second hand Rolex in an global value fund in jan 2020 and it’s a good bit behind the second hand price for the watch now still, but way ahead of Rolex MSRP and of course very likely by 2030 to outperform. My little earmark is aligned with the masters of the universe whereas “investing” in Rolex largely aligns your interest with a small niche of aspirational middle class buyers and speculators. (Also surely the ultra wealthy pay MSRP for Rolex?)

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by inadeje

I think we are currently in the “disbelief phase” for many of these grey dealers.

That's their PR message to avoid a panic effect.

But they all buy low and keep a safer margin because they expect the market to continue going down.
Also they favor consignment so the risk is on the seller and they can have a "free stock" to display.

[alphadweller]

I think there's room for further corrections among popular models. If I was in the market for a Rolex, I'd probably wait a bit or at least haggle hard.