ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
26 September 2022, 09:32 PM | #31 |
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Just like dollar cost averaging on a stock, you continue to buy as it drops but there comes to a point where you just run out of bullets.
Same with most greys (generally newer ones who think watch prices only go up), they have been constantly buying as market drops and most are over stretched now. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk |
26 September 2022, 09:51 PM | #32 |
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Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers
Interesting story. I realize this is the AP section so excuse me if my opinion sings a bit.
Oftentimes we have had convo’s about this brand vs that brand. Also, what’s the real value of Rolex. Well, for those few dealers, the AP wasn’t wanted in trade. Would have been interesting to ask “how about my Pt. DD as a trade-in?” That could’ve separated the twain twixt brand trade choice vs financial straights with those dealers… Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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26 September 2022, 10:02 PM | #33 |
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Hang on my friend. It gets much worse there before it gets better.
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27 September 2022, 06:43 AM | #34 |
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I've spoken with 2 greys in the past week regarding high demand Rolex pieces (GMTs, Green subs, etc) and they're barely willing to pay a premium on those watches. So I can only imagine this is going to reverberate across the market and hit more expensive pieces that are typically harder to move.
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27 September 2022, 06:47 AM | #35 |
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Not that I care but anything above $30k goes directly to consignment or is quoted at offensive prices, even vs. recently discounted C24 prices.
The grey market is broken as you can't sell anything really. I personally think it's good news. But it might come to bite some of the brands eventually. As always there is a lag effect. |
27 September 2022, 09:31 AM | #36 |
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There was a long stall for most of July/august into September but I believe prices have begun to continue their March lower and quite honestly there is no demand. We all know that speculators were buying at these levels not end users.
I suspect run of the mill royal oaks (153/4/500) will be in the 20s by new years. There is no watch I want to own over msrp plus tax right now and I’m a deeply disturbed watch addict if that wasn’t already clear.
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27 September 2022, 09:44 AM | #37 | |
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27 September 2022, 10:28 AM | #38 |
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At least it will get better, eventually
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27 September 2022, 10:43 AM | #39 |
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The thing with AP is that unlike Rolex they have been agressively hiking prices twice a year since 2020 (Last increase in May) so with the MSRP going up quickly and now grey market price going down, the spread is getting lower and it's becoming less profitable for flippers (with the exception of some rare models) which is a good thing. In addition to the fact that dealers are flooded with sell requests so they will either pass or give a low ball offer.
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27 September 2022, 11:03 AM | #40 |
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27 September 2022, 11:26 AM | #41 |
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It is already getting better, no? At least if you are a collector who has been sidelined by all these so called investors and flippers. Prices continuing to fall is a good thing for collectors. I have not a single ounce of sympathy for flippers and investors who are losing their shirt on 15500s they purchased for $75k a few months ago. They have ruined the hobby the last couple of years. Good riddance.
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27 September 2022, 01:12 PM | #42 | |
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I agree about the hobby being a bit ruined. If it were just Rolex it would be one thing, but it really irks me that this happened to the haute horology brands. They're already so limited in production and have minimal physical stores to begin, makes it a seemingly impossible task to get certain allocations now. |
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27 September 2022, 03:42 PM | #43 | |
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-R&D -retail space -marketing -staff salaries -sponsorships |
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27 September 2022, 03:58 PM | #44 | |
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27 September 2022, 04:46 PM | #45 |
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Agreed but if you push that too much, you'll enter again this world where greys sell at a discount to MSRP (apparently already happening on some ROOs and Codes). And that might alter the virtuous circle some brands have enjoyed since 2018.
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28 September 2022, 02:01 AM | #46 |
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First time in a long time, an SA reached out to me about coming in and seeing some of their new collection pieces. Cautiously optimistic.
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28 September 2022, 04:46 PM | #47 |
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I think it is because this particular model is too volatile. The drops on this model has been pretty dramatic. It used to be 130k usd and now it’s 85k usd 2022 brand new. The demand of this watch is just not there to support the premium. Personally, I predict them to trade around $70-$75k usd by the end of this year. 15510 rubber strap 50th anniversary trades around low 60s usd and it is a limited production.
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28 September 2022, 09:17 PM | #48 | |
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Which reference is that please? Not familiar with a new for 2022 RO 15510 on a Rubber strap that is a 50th Anniversary piece. |
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29 September 2022, 03:13 AM | #49 | |
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29 September 2022, 03:37 AM | #50 |
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29 September 2022, 04:31 AM | #51 |
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and will go even lower by new years...
IMO I think we eventually grind our way back to 2019-early 2020 market dynamics. non-blue 41mm ROs on the grey market did not command any premium, and regularly sold below retail. It's just gonna take time to wash out the existing inventory before we get there. and how long can greys who have revolving debt which has gone from 0% interest to now 5%, 6%, 7%+ really hang on to inventory that's not selling before they have to cut their losses and drop prices? |
29 September 2022, 04:48 AM | #52 | |
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A luxury timepiece that *maintained* MSRP was historically a fantastic purchase (from a price perspective). Anybody who has actually been into watches for longer than 5 years knows this. I’d be absolutely thrilled if I pickup my ROC and it maintains its value long term. But again, to me, I honestly don’t even care. Anybody buying modern watches for a part of their ‘investment portfolio’ is incredibly ill informed and should speak to a financial advisor. I believe the higher end brands have redeveloped their marketing/production strategy to where we never get back to 2016 discounts, I think everything shakes out around MSRP. But this is 100% the ideal situation every TRUE watch guy/gal should hope for. 1- your purchase doesn’t fall off a cliff (like Lange of old) and 2- there’s no grey market premium so every single flipper has zero incentive to ever be on a list. |
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29 September 2022, 05:17 AM | #53 |
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I personally believe that AP will start reaching out to new customers to build those relationships. Selling multiple watches to the same clients every year without many changes isn't a sustainable long term play. As the spread between retail and grey market closes it'll create more reassurance for the brand to allocate to new customers without the hesitation of flippers. FWIW, you're seeing a large uptick in 50th Anniversary watches on the secondary market so the initial allocation strategy hasn't paid off or they're producing a lot more than we all expected.
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29 September 2022, 06:12 AM | #54 | |
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I’m not convinced that will ever happen. The illusion of ultra luxury, is exclusivity. If everyone gets what they want, the magic disappears. At least half (to 75%) of new customers will wait for a long time for a call, even if AP can satisfy everyone in a recession. 40 grands will NOT get you an RO. 40 grand plus LUCK might. LUCK, is the magical ingredient for ultra lux brands. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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29 September 2022, 08:40 AM | #55 | |
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29 September 2022, 09:17 AM | #56 | |
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It’s totally expected with the price hikes, it doesn’t really make any difference if 15500 were going for double or triple their retail price, it only lines the pockets of the greys and flippers |
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29 September 2022, 10:00 AM | #57 | |
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People should be careful believing with *certainty* this a downturned watch market could never be the reality again. I like to buy watches assuming they’ll be worth half what I paid. I’m happier that way. |
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29 September 2022, 11:38 AM | #58 | |
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A strong dollar is good for those who is looking to buy new watches now. Grey market dealers get the hardest hit given their past and large inventory especially in the US. Dollar surges almost 20% against most currencies and watch price has dropped like 40-50% since March meaning your selling price is in turn down more than half unavoidably. You are affected both directions. |
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29 September 2022, 07:52 PM | #59 |
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Every asset on Planet Earth is adjusting in value vs. the U.S. $ which, for some unknown reason, seems to be the only thing people are willing to hold on to. Not equities, debt, other currencies, precious metals, crypto, real estate. Less liquid things like art and luxury items will take time to mark-to-market. Watches are leveraged and illiquid but will, eventually, sell around retail unless they are out of production like the 15300, perhaps. The rest of this stuff?
Just look at some of the SOTC posts, particularly in the Rolex area. All new watches, looking pretty much the same, from a company that produces over one million per year. Once these begin to look like Not-so-Sure-Things, hard core collectors will begin to bail, taking advantage of the fact that the Swiss Franc is tied to the U.S. $. And then prices will break below retail reflecting the collapse in currencies like the Pound and Euro. |
29 September 2022, 08:35 PM | #60 |
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