Hawaii Wildfires

[RolexPD]

Originally Posted by Blansky

Often these type of tragedies are “perfect storm” scenarios and there will tons of finger pointing in the weeks to come.

A city/town like downtown Lahaina is mainly made up of very old structures and tarted up with nice facades and pretty stores. There is essential one main road in and out with a split farther up the hill called the Lahaina bypass that connects back to the highway a couple of miles out of town.

There is also a road around the mountain if you continue past Lahaina and Kaanapali/ Napili/Kapalua etc but it’s essentially a one lane mountain road in areas and a nightmare if you were to meet traffic coming the other way.

Once the initial fire early that morning that was pretty much extinguished started back up again and the Lahaina bypass was closed, there was one way in and out and it soon was blocked by downed power poles, traffic and emergency vehicles.

So a place like Lahaina was not like a mainland city with evacuation points. Basically everyone was trapped. And once the winds started…..literally all hell broke loose.

Fires were unfortunately farther down the line on suspected/expected disasters that could affect Maui and less resources were directed to it. Probably the economy after closing the island for Covid affected money allocations as well. Bottom line they were literally overwhelmed, which once the winds started was much like the Tubbs Fire in Santa Rosa California in 2017.

I’m guessing obviously money will now be thrown at the kindling/brush that started this and other Hawai’i fires, but things move slowly in Hawai’i.

And imagine, yay …..we’re going to Maui for a week and you get there and that’s one of the weeks that they decided to do preventative burns to take down the brush. And your vacation is filled with smoke and ash everywhere. Think of the complaining then.

An excellent summary in my opinion. Maui’s had several brush fires over the past 5+ years that could have been truly tragic had they started in or spread to more heavily populated areas. Seems like now our state’s luck just ran out when everything that could go wrong, went wrong.

I can only expect that the climate changes we are seeing will continue to make these events more frequent and destructive. We’re all trying to figure out what happened, what could have been done differently, and where we go in the future.

I’m also confident that aloha will help everyone get through this terrible tragedy.

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Pretty much the entire scientific community disagrees with you. And nothing fails quite like prayers do.

Did you read that from an autistic academic, curious.

[Rico_Brasole]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

And nothing fails quite like prayers do.

Yikes


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[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by rico_brasole

yikes


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+1

[TRS1]

n

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Moondoggy

Did you read that from an autistic academic, curious.

From NASA & Scientific American.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

From NASA & Scientific American.

We talked about this before. If you think scientists are right about everything, then you know nothing about science.

There are so many examples. But String Theory is one of the best. For more than 40 years, the smartest people on the planet (physicists with PhDs) kept telling everyone that String Theory will emerge as the theory of everything. Now we know it’s all BS.

That’s just one example.


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[Blansky]

Lets have some respect for the people of Hawaii and not turn this thread into a left/right climate change debate.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Blansky

Lets have some respect for the people of Hawaii and not turn this thread into a left/right climate change debate.

You’re 100% right.


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[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Krash

We talked about this before. If you think scientists are right about everything, then you know nothing about science.

There are so many examples. But String Theory is one of the best. For more than 40 years, the smartest people on the planet (physicists with PhDs) kept telling everyone that String Theory will emerge as the theory of everything. Now we know it’s all BS.

That’s just one example.

I find this blithe indifference to an existential threat to our children baffling. This isn't a left-right thing, it's all of our survival.

One group of scientists being wrong about String Theory doesn't mean that another group of scientists are wrong about Climate Change. It's a logical non-sequitur.

Climate scientists have been making accurate predictions since the 1970s. And 97-99% of climate scientists are in a consensus. There's very few fringe cranks, but you get those in any profession.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...20the%20future

https://www.opr.ca.gov/facts/list-of...nizations.html

What will it take for climate-deniers to accept the evidence? We've already had record temperatures, droughts, floods, landslides, and mega-wildfires all around the world this year. Is it going to be crop failures, or what?

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...ication-expert

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Blansky

Lets have some respect for the people of Hawaii and not turn this thread into a left/right climate change debate.

I'm very sorry for the people of Hawaii, and I hope they will get some relief.

But surely practical action needs to be taken to try to prevent further future disasters like this one. We can't just sleepwalk into oblivion. Reducing it to a left-right thing is ridiculous. What do people in the centre think?

[rolexpatek363]

Further, the left-right thing completely breaks down when you look at what Margaret Thatcher had to say in 1989.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fys5...hatcheritescot

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I find this blithe indifference to an existential threat to our children baffling. This isn't a left-right thing, it's all of our survival.

One group of scientists being wrong about String Theory doesn't mean that another group of scientists are wrong about Climate Change. It's a logical non-sequitur.

Climate scientists have been making accurate predictions since the 1970s. And 97-99% of climate scientists are in a consensus. There's very few fringe cranks, but you get those in any profession.

Your tendency to cherry pick data that supports your beliefs and ignore any data that challenges your beliefs is quite telling. That’s not how “science” works, that’s how politics works.

“In a new paper published in the International Journal of Global Warming, Carnegie Mellon University’s David Rode and Paul Fischbeck argue that making such forecasts can be counterproductive. “Truly apocalyptic forecasts can only ever be observed in their failure—that is the world did not end as predicted,” says Rode, adjunct research faculty with the Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center, “and observing a string of repeated apocalyptic forecast failures can undermine the public’s trust in the underlying science.”

Rode and Fischbeck, professor of Social & Decision Sciences and Engineering & Public Policy, collected 79 predictions of climate-caused apocalypse going back to the first Earth Day in 1970. With the passage of time, many of these forecasts have since expired; the dates have come and gone uneventfully. In fact, 48 (61%) of the predictions have already expired as of the end of 2020.

Fischbeck noted, “from a forecasting perspective, the ‘problem’ is not only that all of the expired forecasts were wrong, but also that so many of them never admitted to any uncertainty about the date. About 43% of the forecasts in our dataset made no mention of uncertainty.””

https://www.cmu.edu/epp/news/2021/th...forecasts.html

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/18-sp...more-this-year

https://www.agweb.com/opinion/doomsd...te-predictions

https://www.netzerowatch.com/earth-d...ave-come-true/

[Rico_Brasole]

Originally Posted by HHIslander

Your tendency to cherry pick data that supports your beliefs and ignore any data that challenges your beliefs is quite telling. That’s not how “science” works, that’s how politics works.

Nothing to add other than this is well said


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[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by HHIslander

Your tendency to cherry pick data that supports your beliefs and ignore any data that challenges your beliefs is quite telling. That’s not how “science” works, that’s how politics works.

I know very well how science works, but thank you for your kind rebuke, and also for your patronising remarks, which are always welcome. Neither of us is a climate scientist, but I am a physician, so I have a passing interest in the natural sciences.

However....

There is near-unanimity among climate scientists. Maybe Rode and Fischbeck (neither of whom are climate scientists) should raise their concerns with them?

[rolexpatek363]

Oh, and BTW, a lot of the early predictions which didn't come true were based on nothing being done to avert disaster.

Global action was taken in 1987 when CFCs were banned, and this did avert immediate disaster.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58248725

[77T]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I'm very sorry for the people of Hawaii, and I hope they will get some relief.

But surely practical action needs to be taken to try to prevent further future disasters like this one. We can't just sleepwalk into oblivion. Reducing it to a left-right thing is ridiculous. What do people in the centre think?

Either way, please take your off-topic comments onto a thread of your own.

This topic began with an honest wish that our TRF members and others were OK. You have a right to an opinion, but tripling down when others have asked nicely shows very poor consideration.

You are able to start your own “climate change and the wildfires” topic if you wish.


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[TNT009]

Lets not get this thread locked....

[77T]

Agreed


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[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by 77T

Either way, please take your off-topic comments onto a thread of your own.

Climate change isn't off-topic wrt wild fires in Hawaii. It's very much on-topic.

While it's very tempting to say "screw 'em, why should I care, I want a Ferrari and a Range Rover", which seems to be the prevailing opinion here whenever there's a climate-related problem, there are some people here who care about their children's future.

[Rico_Brasole]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

but I am a physician

Oh gosh. so am I. And so are the graduates of St. George’s University.


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[Carguy87]

Ibtl

[77T]

Originally Posted by Carguy87

Ibtl

Hopefully not.

I also hope our Maui-based members can come to tell us they made it through the disaster.


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[Blansky]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Climate change isn't off-topic wrt wild fires in Hawaii. It's very much on-topic.

While it's very tempting to say "screw 'em, why should I care, I want a Ferrari and a Range Rover", which seems to be the prevailing opinion here whenever there's a climate-related problem, there are some people here who care about their children's future.

The problem is not whether you’re right or you’re wrong, the problem is that it seems inappropriate to be continually arguing this when the thread is about the tragedy to the people in Hawai’i, and the dead and still missing people involved, and the need for help from those of us on the mainland.

Thanks.

[Carguy87]

Originally Posted by 77T

Hopefully not.

I also hope our Maui-based members can come to tell us they made it through the disaster.


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I hope not as well; this thread started with the intention of showing care and respect for all the people facing tragedy in Hawaii. Clearly the conversation has steered away from that, and it seems a “course correction” isn’t likely.

[austinp]

The images coming from Hawaii are horrible. I’ve seen the challenges to rebuild after hurricanes here in Florida. I can’t imagine how difficult it will be on a small island. Getting enough tradespeople and materials to the area will be quite challenging. Prayers go out to all involved.


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[BLACKHORSE 6]

It’s a terrible situation.

I have no idea if this is going on, but I know that the US Army has the 25th ID not far away in Schofield Barracks. The Navy also has assets in the area out of Pearl Harbor. I can’t think of anyone else that has the assets and people in that area necessary to coordinate a large relief effort. Hopefully the people impacted are getting the support that they need.

[Maleg]

Originally Posted by Blansky

The problem is not whether you’re right or you’re wrong, the problem is that it seems inappropriate to be continually arguing this when the thread is about the tragedy to the people in Hawai’i, and the dead and still missing people involved, and the need for help from those of us on the mainland.

Thanks.

Originally Posted by Carguy87

I hope not as well; this thread started with the intention of showing care and respect for all the people facing tragedy in Hawaii. Clearly the conversation has steered away from that, and it seems a “course correction” isn’t likely.

A course correction is made when we ignore the one poster whose zealotry incapacitates his compassion.

The news today is more horrible than yesterday.

[rolexpatek363]

"A course correction is made when we ignore the one poster whose zealotry incapacitates his compassion"

I have nothing but compassion for the poor people in Hawaii, I am simply pointing out a very important driver for this catastrophe. We can hold more than one thought or idea in our heads simultaneously, I would hope: compassion AND a desire to prevent future disasters.

[Wcdhtwn]

I have a niece living there. She had 4 minutes to grab what she could and flee. What she didn't take is gone, fortunately she's fine, and one of the few things she grabbed was her dog, both are fine.

She is a boat captain and works for a whale watch company. I think they lost all their boats, that business is dead... like so many others.