Presumably prices should start to move

[batmanwatch]

i dunno, feels like theyre being a bit optimistic here. The economy is still shaky and lux watches arent exactly a necessity. Could see prices staying flat or dipping more before any real recovery.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Vetracer

Personally, I don't think we'll ever get back to the crazy prices we saw during global lockdowns...

Give it 10 years. :)

Look at home prices, food prices, cars, etc. over time. An SS white face Daytona went for $40k / €35k / £32k in March 2022 could simply mean a decade from today's global currency valuations... it is not a mathematical stretch to think it'll once again be priced at $40k / €35k / £32k in about 10 years.

i do agree we might not see as massive a bubble during the next decade... but hyperinflation tends to happen '''''''slowly''''' at first, then very suddenly. Some mismanaged currencies in 2024 are at ''''the slowly part'''', and so.......


The sum of an imbalanced debt / re-payment / solution equation... is mathematically impossible to solve given the current formula / regime / system. Simply said, inevitability.

[inadeje]

The mood surrounding watches and luxury items in general has changed. The once in (our) lifetime events that caused the aberration we saw was fueled by social media and mass hype. Hype moves on. It won’t be rekindled around watches because the hype train gets bored too. Watches will rise when the economy rises but the mass hysteria hype we saw won’t return, nor will the 5x, 10x retail we saw won’t be back during our lifetime.

Inflation will do its thing, mind. So the price comparisons from decades ago also look artificially higher for those unable to comprehend the concept of inflation’s effect on the price of goods and services.

[Little machines]

Watches are a hobby that most of us enjoy collecting. When world wide economies are hurting and we have unemployment rising and inflation growing we have a larger problem. Rolex time pieces are not important when people are trying to pay bills and have food on the table .The downward trend of prices in Rolex will continue and we eventually will have an uptick but not in the near future.I'm enjoying the current downward trend and a realistic price point for Rolex watches.

[Talon84]

Originally Posted by BillA

Nope. People feeling better about economy.

In America...maybe?

Germanys Manufacturing base is pretty horrible right now
Frances economy is shakey
China hasnt opened back up or bounced back like people expected
Japans economy is a dumpster fire
Here in the UK we have massive debt both in the publics purse and on the government side which will lead to tax rises and public spending cuts, all while around 2 million people are coming off fixed term mortgages which will see their rates jump from 2% to 5% this year

The shock has gone from high inflation and interest rates, but i suspect the aftershocks are going through us right now. I for one am trying to stay liquid and not spending £££ on wrist trinkets at the moment.

[Barbara_C]

Baby boomers like myself are getting old,ok are old...I think when im in an AD "what do i need another Rolex for ? I was thinking of trading for a used Blancpain because I'm growing tired of Rolex .....there every where plus the getting jugged factor....
I own 4 Rolexes I'm 68, single, have way more money than I need to live out how many years I have left...when I think in 12 years I will be 80! if I'm still around. Im wasting money and should be giving it to animal charity.....cats of course.
I don't care who wins or whatever I'm sick of it all....lots of old folks where I live feel the same way. Speaking as a nurse anybody who is pushing 80 or over is way too old to be president of anything. Then I see Mick dancing around at 81 and think sex, drugs and rock n roll are the key to long life.

[Talon84]

Originally Posted by Barbara_C

I own 4 Rolexes I'm 68, single, have way more money than I need to live out how many years I have left...when I think in 12 years I will be 80! if I'm still around. Im wasting money and should be giving it to animal charity.....cats of course.

Im single and have no money.....id have suggested we hook up and you could be my sugar daddy until you mentioned cats....

....dogs are way less evil

[Barbara_C]

Originally Posted by Talon84

Im single and have no money.....id have suggested we hook up and you could be my sugar daddy until you mentioned cats....

....dogs are way less evil

if you swing that way, most women are named Barbara.....ive had cats for over 40 years
I have zero chance of ever saying I do again.... was once for 5 years, huge mistake
My guy is a retired geologist from Exxon who was let go at 61 ....we live apart and like it that way....

[Talon84]

Originally Posted by Barbara_C

if you swing that way, most women are named Barbara.....ive had cats for over 40 years
I have zero chance of ever saying I do again.... was once for 5 years, huge mistake
My guy is a retired geologist from Exxon who was let go at 61 ....we live apart and like it that way....

Lmao…..didnt even look at your name, whoops

And haha yeh i fell ya, was with my ex for 11 years, parted on good terms but never again!

[subtona]

This thread made a left

[jfmiii]

This thread is worthless without pictures lol

[WS9D]

Can I have the website where I can submit my "cub" application please?

LOL this thread def took a turn!

Originally Posted by Barbara_C

Baby boomers like myself are getting old,ok are old...I think when im in an AD "what do i need another Rolex for ? I was thinking of trading for a used Blancpain because I'm growing tired of Rolex .....there every where plus the getting jugged factor....
I own 4 Rolexes I'm 68, single, have way more money than I need to live out how many years I have left...when I think in 12 years I will be 80! if I'm still around. Im wasting money and should be giving it to animal charity.....cats of course.
I don't care who wins or whatever I'm sick of it all....lots of old folks where I live feel the same way. Speaking as a nurse anybody who is pushing 80 or over is way too old to be president of anything. Then I see Mick dancing around at 81 and think sex, drugs and rock n roll are the key to long life.

[GMT Aviator]

Originally Posted by Talon84

In America...maybe?

Germanys Manufacturing base is pretty horrible right now
Frances economy is shakey
China hasnt opened back up or bounced back like people expected
Japans economy is a dumpster fire
Here in the UK we have massive debt both in the publics purse and on the government side which will lead to tax rises and public spending cuts, all while around 2 million people are coming off fixed term mortgages which will see their rates jump from 2% to 5% this year

The shock has gone from high inflation and interest rates, but i suspect the aftershocks are going through us right now. I for one am trying to stay liquid and not spending £££ on wrist trinkets at the moment.

This about sums it up this side of the pond.

[alphadweller]

Watch market indexes are still down according to Watchcharts.

I'm seeing some Rolex models still falling, while others are slightly creeping up, from my personal non-representative data points. My SD43 is still tanking for example. Bluesy's recovering, YM is steady.

I read somewhere that the World Health Organisation expects more pandemics to occur in the future. Would that create the same kind of crazy bubble we've seen, not sure. So many parameters. Rolex are building new facilities, so they must expect demand to pick up in a few years from now.

I'm financially sound, but my job is at risk. I'm not buying unnecessarily luxuries right now. Not renewing my 1st car, not renewing my 2nd car which got stolen, not getting a second residence for vacations. Despite a fixed mortgage at 1.1% till maturity, I'd rather be cautious. I make 3% risk free on my savings.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Talon84

Im single and have no money.....id have suggested we hook up and you could be my sugar daddy until you mentioned cats....

....dogs are way less evil

UK ??? Drizzle drizzle.

Smart Passport Bro knows Thailand. Go where you're treated the best

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Talon84

Im single and have no money.....id have suggested we hook up and you could be my sugar daddy until you mentioned cats....

....dogs are way less evil

What in the Tinder is going on here


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ColoradoTime]

Originally Posted by pepemaui

Hello….

Finance is cyclical…..

It took years for this watch market to peak. It will take years to get to the true bottom. In my estimation we’re just not there, maybe not even close to the bottom yet.

I agree with this 100%. I think we are still on a steady, slow decline.


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[belutak]

Originally Posted by Vetracer

Personally, I don't think we'll ever get back to the crazy prices we saw during global lockdowns when people were trapped in their houses with nothing but food, mortgage/ rent and household bills to spend their salaries or stimulus checks on.

Eventually with time, inflation will cause prices to go back to those dizzy heights, but by then a loaf of bread will cost £4 or $4.

LoL! in Australia it already costs twice that!


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[belutak]

Originally Posted by WS9D

Can I have the website where I can submit my "cub" application please?

LOL this thread def took a turn!

Love it! Give us more!


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[Oystersteel92]

I totally muffed predicting what would happen during Covid, so I largely refrain now, but I will say that I'm locked and loaded funds wise and ready to scoop up some bargains if we can get the hard landing that I crave.

Large scale white collar layoffs can force watches out of safes and off wrists to raise capital.

[Barbara_C]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

I totally muffed predicting what would happen during Covid, so I largely refrain now, but I will say that I'm locked and loaded funds wise and ready to scoop up some bargains if we can get the hard landing that I crave.

Large scale white collar layoffs can force watches out of safes and off wrists to raise capital.

In this dump/swamp called greater Houston area it already has......passed SLB as its called now .... the west Houston r and d dept ....maybe 12 cars on lot built for 400
newpark drilling.....had 5/6 cars in the lot on a Monday......I hear of people selling off boats,cars, motorcycles and yes their gold rolex just to make the house payment....which they keep raising the prop tax every year... sure not road improvements......

[gamingdoctor]

Luxury watch prices aren't tied tightly to the economy. Economy wasn't doing great with COVID and look at what happened with luxury watch prices at the time.

Having said that, I think watch prices will continue to go down.

[Barbara_C]

Originally Posted by gamingdoctor

Luxury watch prices aren't tied tightly to the economy. Economy wasn't doing great with COVID and look at what happened with luxury watch prices at the time.

Having said that, I think watch prices will continue to go down.

Yes.....slowly, but nothing to stop it.....the only way it would stop if Rolex cut production in half....even then 600k is a bunch of watches.

[Kingcobb]

Originally Posted by gamingdoctor

Luxury watch prices aren't tied tightly to the economy. Economy wasn't doing great with COVID and look at what happened with luxury watch prices at the time.

Having said that, I think watch prices will continue to go down.

Yes but everyone had an extra check from uncle Sam to splurge with or 2. Here in the states anyway.

[Kingcobb]

Originally Posted by Barbara_C

In this dump/swamp called greater Houston area it already has......passed SLB as its called now .... the west Houston r and d dept ....maybe 12 cars on lot built for 400
newpark drilling.....had 5/6 cars in the lot on a Monday......I hear of people selling off boats,cars, motorcycles and yes their gold rolex just to make the house payment....which they keep raising the prop tax every year... sure not road improvements......

And this is why class, when you get an unexpected windfall from uncle Sam or some other event, you wither invest it or you pay off debt. You don't use it to go out and buy a new toy to keep up with the Jones.

[enjoythemusic]

+1 Kingcobb

Originally Posted by gamingdoctor

Luxury watch prices aren't tied tightly to the economy. Economy wasn't doing great with COVID and look at what happened with luxury watch prices at the time.

Yes-ish...

Since people were not traveling as much, not going out for dinner... historic norm spending of currency was 'diverted' into other items such as swimming pools / home improvement, RV, luxury timepieces, etc. Things that brought joy and were 'allowed'.

Once travel, going out in public was declared 'safe', etc so norms were reinstated, then items like timepieces gave way as spending went back into historic norms.

We now return you to your life, already in progress.

jmho

But, since the bubble did benefit the awareness and value of horology, the customer base has grown (and dare i add, became on average a bit younger ). Big win-win for timepiece manufacturers who understood / understands the market flow.

[Barbara_C]

Originally Posted by Kingcobb

And this is why class, when you get an unexpected windfall from uncle Sam or some other event, you wither invest it or you pay off debt. You don't use it to go out and buy a new toy to keep up with the Jones.

I got zip......only SS at 65 years 3 months and had just started getting state of MN pension checks .....same as i get now.

[jmgorman]

Originally Posted by Barbara_C

Baby boomers like myself are getting old,ok are old...I think when im in an AD "what do i need another Rolex for ? I was thinking of trading for a used Blancpain because I'm growing tired of Rolex .....there every where plus the getting jugged factor....

Well let me know if you're looking - I have a handsome BP on an impossible-to-find bracelet that I'm starting to tire of....

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by gamingdoctor

Luxury watch prices aren't tied tightly to the economy. Economy wasn't doing great with COVID and look at what happened with luxury watch prices at the time.

Having said that, I think watch prices will continue to go down.

It was a very unique circumstance in which the white collar upper middle class kept their jobs and worked from home (my wife and I among them) and couldn't spend money on the activities they enjoy (lavish meals, lavish vacations, outings of all kinds) and so being bored at home they ordered anything they could have delivered, including luxury watches. I remember an article by a journalist in NYC during the pandemic talking about how lonely she was and how nobody would speak to each other in the halls or elevators and the lobby of her building was nearly impassable due to hundreds of Amazon boxes being delivered each day.

If you go back to 2008-2009, the watch market is very correlated to the economy in terms of employement. You get an 8-10% unemployment rate, especially if it hits white collar work hard, you'll see the take rate at AD's drop severely and the secondary market prices plunge as people try and sell pieces to raise capital. I've said it before, but in 2009 I knew it was getting bad when one of my favorite grey dealers suddenly had eight SS Daytonas on offer for list price or less. I visited my current AD for the first time in 2010 and while it wasn't out in the case, they offered me a SS Daytona out of the vault as soon as I said "I like Rolex."

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by Kingcobb

Yes but everyone had an extra check from uncle Sam to splurge with or 2. Here in the states anyway.

Not quite everybody. I was working too hard to qualify for the gravy train.