Prices not dropping?

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Nico81

Dont look at listing prices.

Try selling same watches to your trusted seller/dealer

For example… one Ts has 116515 daytona for $75k ( peak market price(, i offered same watch but 2 months old to him for $50k
It was “pass” reply


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Uh oh guess I’m in trouble because I have one just like it Know the seller and model you’re speaking of

However it’s quickly becoming one of my favorites and most worn. Bought it for the love of the model and had no other option. None. Zilch. Tried, waited, did everything and got nowhere.

Have zero intentions of ever selling it so who cares. I bought it for the right reasons.

[Cogno]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I've never seen anything like this before on TRF.

Some people on this forum seem to think it's great news that some other people are losing large amounts of money, because it means the forumites here might be able to buy cheaper jewellery for themselves in the future. They are actively hoping for a big recession in at least one post I saw on the PP subforum.

What hope is there for humanity?

The same people won’t buy a single watch even at retail if a crash happens. and While the ones who could afford grey prices will be the one to buy :)

[eijiboy]

Blnr finally reached below 19k. Mint




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[TswaneNguni]

It's two worlds :

The AD world and the vocal secondary market world .

The AD world smiles ,always .Short term ,long term.
They dont say much,they dont need to .

[Mattt]

I see almost all models at the same price. Prices are dropping but not that much, mainly on the watches that went up way too much these last months.
I don't see the market crashing at all. There has been an overall 5% correction in the last month on average. That's nada.
A couple of guys getting shocked by being lowballed by grey dealers... Did you really think they made a 10% margin? This has always been the norm...
Several people cherry-picking watches in this thread. Several from non-reputable vendors. If I purchase a BLNR at the AD I'll try to stretch the profit as much as I can. Grey dealers have always offered 25-35% off market unless it's an EXTREMELY liquid watch.

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by Mattt

I see almost all models at the same price. Prices are dropping but not that much, mainly on the watches that went up way too much these last months.
I don't see the market crashing at all. There has been an overall 5% correction in the last month on average. That's nada.
A couple of guys getting shocked by being lowballed by grey dealers... Did you really think they made a 10% margin? This has always been the norm...
Several people cherry-picking watches in this thread. Several from non-reputable vendors. If I purchase a BLNR at the AD I'll try to stretch the profit as much as I can. Grey dealers have always offered 25-35% off market unless it's an EXTREMELY liquid watch.

Which non reputable seller are you talking about?
Actually the one that went up too much are the one drop the most like daytona, pepsi, batman and lv


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[David001]

If you can't see it then you can't see it, it doesn't mean it's not happening, it just means you can't see it.

Statistically it's not surprising. It's like all these people complaining about losing their shirt in crypto or the markets. That's how the 10% make their money, because the 90% don't see it coming or it doesn't suit their bias so they ignore it.

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I've never seen anything like this before on TRF.

Some people on this forum seem to think it's great news that some other people are losing large amounts of money, because it means the forumites here might be able to buy cheaper jewellery for themselves in the future. They are actively hoping for a big recession in at least one post I saw on the PP subforum.

What hope is there for humanity?

Part and parcel of investments is risk involved. Naturally it also includes profit and loss.
Will definitely not be happy to see any people suffer financial hardships. But some really need to learn to adjust their risk appetite according to their means.

[David001]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I've never seen anything like this before on TRF.

Some people on this forum seem to think it's great news that some other people are losing large amounts of money, because it means the forumites here might be able to buy cheaper jewellery for themselves in the future. They are actively hoping for a big recession in at least one post I saw on the PP subforum.

What hope is there for humanity?

Even though I own six figures worth of watches I want inflation to fall significantly.

I want watch prices to fall off a cliff, so that enthusiasts can buy them. I want food to be a lot cheaper so that people can eat well. I want energy prices to be lower so people can heat their water and homes.
I want this crazy inflation bubble to fall.

You just want your 5712 to be worth as much as possible and you're on here day after day doggedly trying to convince everyone that watch prices aren't going down.

Before you go making unpleasant accusations at humanity you should reflect on your own motivations.

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by Patton250

The entire spectrum of the middle class will suffer. Of course the lower middle class as usual will be hit the hardest but the stock market collapse will hurt the upper middle class also. I hate it when the economy does this type of crap especially when it’s so avoidable. Oh well at least we can get whatever Watches we want at retail in the very near future. Remember the grays are used to have these watches at a discount when that’s what the market dictated. Maybe they will again one day. We used to get some great deals from David SW.

The stock market seems to be doing fine from my perspective. If you go back to pre-pandemic levels, current market levels give it about a 10% annual return over the past several years. It up way too fast due in part to all the money laying around. And now we are back down closer to where we should have been.

[BT1985]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

The stock market seems to be doing fine from my perspective. If you go back to pre-pandemic levels, current market levels give it about a 10% annual return over the past several years. It up way too fast due in part to all the money laying around. And now we are back down closer to where we should have been.

Yep. This is a healthy correction in my opinion. For all risk asset classes, including watches. Rolex watches are only a risk asset class for those that bought with an intent to sell at some point in the short term. Rolex watches are a good store of value history suggests and certain models can absolutely be a great investment but a lot of people just view them as their watch that they will bang around and one day pass on to their kids (which is a better way to look at it I think).


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[ninjin]

Originally Posted by David001

Even though I own six figures worth of watches I want inflation to fall significantly.

I want watch prices to fall off a cliff, so that enthusiasts can buy them. I want food to be a lot cheaper so that people can eat well. I want energy prices to be lower so people can heat their water and homes.
I want this crazy inflation bubble to fall.

You just want your 5712 to be worth as much as possible and you're on here day after day doggedly trying to convince everyone that watch prices aren't going down.

Before you go making unpleasant accusations at humanity you should reflect on your own motivations.

You took my words out of my mouth. I'm 101% with you on this.

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by ninjin

You took my words out of my mouth. I'm 101% with you on this.

me in too.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

The stock market seems to be doing fine from my perspective. If you go back to pre-pandemic levels, current market levels give it about a 10% annual return over the past several years. It up way too fast due in part to all the money laying around. And now we are back down closer to where we should have been.

You can spin that however you want but my 401(k) is down 16% for the year. That’s reality no matter how many flowers you try to put next to it. It probably is is just a correction but we shall see. All the other indicators look terrible also. Interest rates and energy. Look what happened back in the 70s when those two things skyrocketed. You’re going to need more flowers.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Adam84

It was the same in the last financial crisis in the U.K. when landlords who owned multiple properties lost big time…..the same people ramping up house prices so people couldn’t even get one.

That's interesting. Lenders and speculators pumped it to bursting point. How were landlords ramping up property prices?

[RanHong]

Originally Posted by David001

Even though I own six figures worth of watches I want inflation to fall significantly.

I want watch prices to fall off a cliff, so that enthusiasts can buy them. I want food to be a lot cheaper so that people can eat well. I want energy prices to be lower so people can heat their water and homes.
I want this crazy inflation bubble to fall.

You just want your 5712 to be worth as much as possible and you're on here day after day doggedly trying to convince everyone that watch prices aren't going down.

Before you go making unpleasant accusations at humanity you should reflect on your own motivations.

Amen brother

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by David001

Even though I own six figures worth of watches I want inflation to fall significantly.

I want watch prices to fall off a cliff, so that enthusiasts can buy them. I want food to be a lot cheaper so that people can eat well. I want energy prices to be lower so people can heat their water and homes.
I want this crazy inflation bubble to fall.

You just want your 5712 to be worth as much as possible and you're on here day after day doggedly trying to convince everyone that watch prices aren't going down.

Before you go making unpleasant accusations at humanity you should reflect on your own motivations.

This is the Rolex section old chum, where Rolex watches are discussed. When/if I sell my Nautilus is frankly none of your business, but it'll be during 2023 or 2024 in all likelihood, so today's prices on Rolex watches are doubly irrelevant to me.

IIRC, you were the person actively hoping for a big recession on the PP section, were you not? You want other people to lose their livelihoods just so you can buy jewellery (watches) for yourself more cheaply.

There's a lot of people here claiming that it's a wholesale collapse in pricing across all models, and AFAICT, that isn't true. It may happen in the future, but it isn't happening right now.

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

You want other people to lose their livelihoods just so you can buy jewellery (watches) for yourself more cheaply.

If people lose their livelihood because they over extended buying A WATCH for way more than it is currently worth and now they can't put food on their table because the watch market has completely crashed, well then you can't fix stupid. Sorry but these are as you say luxury jewelry items. Me or anyone for that matter wanting the prices of a watch in particular a Rolex to drop like a rock so we can walk in and buy whatever we want does not and should not have ANYTHING to do with wishing someone is on the street and they lost their livelihood. Maybe you should not have bought a luxury item.

For example I could care less if the value of my WG Sub plummets. I have no intent on selling it and if the value became ZERO tomorrow I will still be just fine. I buy watches with disposable income. If people extended themselves on buying themselves a piece of jewelry for their Instagram feed, I have zero concerns for them and their livelihood.

[Adam84]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

If people lose their livelihood because they over extended buying A WATCH for way more than it is currently worth and now they can't put food on their table because the watch market has completely crashed, well then you can't fix stupid. Sorry but these are as you say luxury jewelry items. Me or anyone for that matter wanting the prices of a watch in particular a Rolex to drop like a rock so we can walk in and buy whatever we want does not and should not have ANYTHING to do with wishing someone is on the street and they lost their livelihood. Maybe you should not have bought a luxury item.

For example I could care less if the value of my WG Sub plummets. I have no intent on selling it and if the value became ZERO tomorrow I will still be just fine. I buy watches with disposable income. If people extended themselves on buying themselves a piece of jewelry for their Instagram feed, I have zero concerns for them and their livelihood.

There’s a lot of truth in this.

Unfortunately it’s human nature to try and keep up, have the latest fashion, technology, hype piece.

Life is about needs and wants. No one needs a Rolex, people want them then

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

You want other people to lose their livelihoods just so you can buy jewellery (watches) for yourself more cheaply.

The people who will go bust are people who overextended themselves, they took too many risks. Why should you have sympathy for them? That's the game you play. They are adults. If you can't afford to lose it all, do not play. They could have cashed out, put a little less back in and would be fine. But they didn't because all they wanted is to become rich(er) and make it big.

And as mentioned before (it's becoming repetitive now), a lot of those crypto boys and others have pushed this market up and created this frenzy. I can do without.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

The people who will go bust are people who overextended themselves, they took too many risks. Why should you have sympathy for them? That's the game you play. They are adults. If you can't afford to lose it all, do not play. They could have cashed out, put a little less back in and would be fine. But they didn't because all they wanted is to become rich(er) and make it big.

And as mentioned before (it's becoming repetitive now), a lot of those crypto boys and others have pushed this market up and created this frenzy. I can do without.

David001 was talking specifically and with great glee about a generalised economic recession, where people get put out of business.

And there is a massive pretence going on in this thread that buying Rolex watches "as an investment" is a new thing over the past 5 years. Here's a film about watches from 12 years ago, have a look from 11:21......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrO1fx7l0Yc&t=681s

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by Adam84

There’s a lot of truth in this.

Unfortunately it’s human nature to try and keep up, have the latest fashion, technology, hype piece.

Life is about needs and wants. No one needs a Rolex, people want them then

Agreed except it isn't "human nature" but it is SOME "human nature". If you feel like you have to keep up with the Jones' yet can't afford to when the market goes south, sorry about ya. You rode the wave up, bought the hype, as @wahlberg said over extended yourself and had a fun time while it lasted and now you deal with your decisions. Maybe a great life lesson.

I saw this coming from a mile away. Watches, Porsches (any exotic cars for that matter) real estate. People saw their 401k's climbing, saw the cost of borrowing money so low that they went hog wild. They thought they were now all of sudden rich. Paying 2X MSRP for a GT3 so they could be the cool kid at cars and coffee. BTW sold our 991.1 at the top. Drove it for 30K miles and sold it for more than we paid for it. Rolled that money right into the market (didn't go buy the next best hype car at inflated prices) I have zero problem and give zero sh&ts about the luxury items come tumbling down. The only problem with there stupid spending is we pay for that in some way. When banks take a beating and have to repo things and lose their a$$ then we pay with higher costs etc etc.

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

David001 was talking specifically and with great glee about a generalised economic recession, where people get put out of business.

And there is a massive pretence going on in this thread that buying Rolex watches "as an investment" is a new thing over the past 5 years. Here's a film about watches from 12 years ago, have a look from 11:21......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrO1fx7l0Yc&t=681s

If people are buying ANY watch as an investment then again I go back to can't fix stupid. I have ZERO cares about someone that loses their a$$ because they are investing in WATCHES. No and I mean NO decent academic school or theory would suggest investing in watches is a good investment. Have people made money doing it sure, have people made a livelihood of it, sure. Also can be said about a professional gambler or a drug dealer. You want to "invest" in something that risky, then you pay the price good and bad.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

If people are buying ANY watch as an investment then again I go back to can't fix stupid. I have ZERO cares about someone that loses their a$$ because they are investing in WATCHES. No and I mean NO decent academic school or theory would suggest investing in watches is a good investment. Have people made money doing it sure, have people made a livelihood of it, sure. Also can be said about a professional gambler or a drug dealer. You want to "invest" in something that risky, then you pay the price good and bad.

I am with you, almost. Do not wish anyone ill who purchased watches as an "investment." And do not equate this pratice with drug dealing or gambling. And for that matter I do not equate a professional gambler with a drug dealer (assume you are talking about illicit drugs).

But, I do agree that for the majority, "investing" in watches is a fools errand. There are exceptions of course, but those who make money at it usually spend a lot of time and resources in the process, just like any other endeavor. The weekend warrior watch investor is filled with risk.

[amh]

Originally Posted by Adam84

While I think it’s distasteful to wish ill on anyone….especially when people COULD lose their entire life savings or homes over this, I can understand some peoples ‘satisfaction’ about the situation, given that possibly the same people now losing big time have driven prices sky high so that the normal watch enthusiast can’t compete…

It was the same in the last financial crisis in the U.K. when landlords who owned multiple properties lost big time…..the same people ramping up house prices so people couldn’t even get one.

Speculation is driven by the "Greater Fool" paradigm, applies to both Crypto and Rolex.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

When the markets are roaring those of us sitting on the sidelines were called boomers and fossils. However the behavior we've seen is closer to gambling than investment. People are losing their homes? Then they've spent money they never had in the first place.

I've lost the same paper value in my portfolio as the rest of you, not pleased about my 401k. However I'm pleased to see the correction in the jewelry market and I can separate the two matters. Hopefully you can, too.

[minute_man]

Originally Posted by minute_man

Only 1 photo and not of a 126610. Just saying...

Called him out on a private message and asked more pictures as well. Next thing you know, the bidding ended right away (had 5+ days left and no "best offer" or "buy now")...

Fake listing, fake bidding (started at 4k and "sold" at 13+K )

"Seller" seems to have been at it for quite a few months with fake reviews, too...

Take it for what it's worth...

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by Mattt

I see almost all models at the same price. Prices are dropping but not that much, mainly on the watches that went up way too much these last months.
I don't see the market crashing at all. There has been an overall 5% correction in the last month on average. That's nada.
A couple of guys getting shocked by being lowballed by grey dealers... Did you really think they made a 10% margin? This has always been the norm...
Several people cherry-picking watches in this thread. Several from non-reputable vendors. If I purchase a BLNR at the AD I'll try to stretch the profit as much as I can. Grey dealers have always offered 25-35% off market unless it's an EXTREMELY liquid watch.

This is just simply not true. You realize the big Grey Dealers buy a lot of their stock from the Moda and WhatsApp watch groups? Those are the prices right now not what you see posted by the Greys on here. They are down far more than 5%. A lot of watches are still being sold dealer to dealer if you pay attention close enough you can see the exact same watch go from dealer to dealer.

[GB-man]

The go to sports icons are down 20%. It’s either a buying opportunity or a falling knife. As a result buyers are very very thin as so many of these watches were being purchased by other dealers rather than end users.

[temporarychicken]

Sellers are holding out for their money. Reducing their prices will be resisted for as long as possible.

However, at some point the 'ask price' will eventually have to drop if the 'bid prices' go down further.

The old adage of 'it's worth what somebody is prepared to pay' will win out eventually.

[ajw45]

Watchbox is doing an ebay sale on their entire assortment, over 1700 watches. Watchfinder and CC both running sales. The big grey's aren't holding the line on pricing, everything is getting discounted, just the beginning.