Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[dmash]

Originally Posted by sigma089

Honestly if I were to buy a watch at inflated grey prices, I'd register it straight away. Couldn't care less if the guy who bought it in the first place gets blacklisted, actually I would welcome that.

huge +1, not my problem and I'm the rightful owner.

[dmash]

another blue 26420TI posted, mint with box and papers, 37k.

[dawalsh]

We all know AP is down like most other watches.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by dmash

another blue 26420TI posted, mint with box and papers, 37k.

I am pretty sure the one listed a few days ago for around the same price still hasn't sold.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by psm11

I am pretty sure the one listed a few days ago for around the same price still hasn't sold.

I missed that one!

I hadn't seen a blue TI posted lately, only the typical black SO and every now and then the taupe.

[Vince_76]

Clean 26470 full set for 24.5 and sitting

15710 full set 23.9 and sitting

Path is clear for ROOs to be well under retail for BNIB, and run of the mill ROs +/- MSRP

[thekman]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Clean 26470 full set for 24.5 and sitting

15710 full set 23.9 and sitting

Path is clear for ROOs to be well under retail for BNIB, and run of the mill ROs +/- MSRP

Cleary all ROOs are now way below retail. I just wonder when I will walk into my boutique and find pieces for sale.


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by thekman

Cleary all ROOs are now way below retail. I just wonder when I will walk into my boutique and find pieces for sale.


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When RO simmers down. People are still utilizing the ROO as a stepping stone to RO. If they'd stop doing that as well it would benefit everyone.

[thekman]

Originally Posted by dmash

When RO simmers down. People are still utilizing the ROO as a stepping stone to RO. If they'd stop doing that as well it would benefit everyone.

Makes sense.

[AshAP]

Originally Posted by dmash

When RO simmers down. People are still utilizing the ROO as a stepping stone to RO. If they'd stop doing that as well it would benefit everyone.

This might be true for people who are relatively new to AP but when I started buying Offshores 15 years ago it was the Royal Oaks that were the slow movers. The Offshore was the one to own back then but I’m talking about a time when no one new what a Jumbo was and 5980’s and 5711’s used to sit unsold in ADs windows.


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by AshAP

This might be true for people who are relatively new to AP but when I started buying Offshores 15 years ago it was the Royal Oaks that were the slow movers. The Offshore was the one to own back then but I’m talking about a time when no one new what a Jumbo was and 5980’s and 5711’s used to sit unsold in ADs windows.


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Yes I'm solely talking about if you're new to AP or a certain boutique, they utilize a ROO or CODE as a 'stepping stone' product. Not that people's preference's work in that order. Hope that clarifies

[dbfagan]

Originally Posted by AshAP

This might be true for people who are relatively new to AP but when I started buying Offshores 15 years ago it was the Royal Oaks that were the slow movers. The Offshore was the one to own back then but I’m talking about a time when no one new what a Jumbo was and 5980’s and 5711’s used to sit unsold in ADs windows.


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The good ol’ days

[Vince_76]

AP 15500st mint fullset -3 links for 34k. Anyone who thinks these ain’t go below retail in due time is on some juice

[aa909]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

AP 15500st mint fullset -3 links for 34k. Anyone who thinks these ain’t go below retail in due time is on some juice

$34K is only 15% above retail+tax. To be honest that’s the threshold at which most people will just say “F it not worth waiting another year for an allocation” and going grey. But if it doesn’t hold these levels I agree with you that it’s gonna go lower next year.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by aa909

$34K is only 15% above retail+tax. To be honest that’s the threshold at which most people will just say “F it not worth waiting another year for an allocation” and going grey. But if it doesn’t hold these levels I agree with you that it’s gonna go lower next year.

There’s no evidence it will hold or the bottom has been adequately tested.

Exactly why this is a snowball effect. Not only does the drop in secondary prices, dampen flippers’ demand, but even some enthusiasts who value hype to varying degrees.

[mykii]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

AP 15500st mint fullset -3 links for 34k. Anyone who thinks these ain’t go below retail in due time is on some juice

Well the other part of this is that I am sure these are coming from private sellers, which the far majority of people would be unwilling to purchase from fullstop.

Private sellers have to price more attractively to the "real" dealers.

Either way, ofc prices are softening, and I couldn't care less. I hope these speculators are gone for good from the hobby.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by mykii

Well the other part of this is that I am sure these are coming from private sellers, which the far majority of people would be unwilling to purchase from fullstop.

Private sellers have to price more attractively to the "real" dealers.

Either way, ofc prices are softening, and I couldn't care less. I hope these speculators are gone for good from the hobby.

Majority of those active on MODA are dealers not private sellers. So, no.

Agree that speculators leaving the hobby is exactly what we want and need.

[Vince_76]

ROs really tanking:

15400 full set mint for $31.99k

Another full set -3 links 33k

[aa909]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

ROs really tanking:

15400 full set mint for $31.99k

Another full set -3 links 33k

everything tanking. Look at the Rolex Hulks which were priced at $25K-$30K (if you can believe that, they made a million of these LOL) now listed at $16K-$17K and going lower. The Sprite was in the $28K range all year and now it's down to $21K and going lower. Pepsi's were $25K and now $16K-$17K and going lower. Batmans listing now almost at retail+tax. IMO Greys have to sell their inventory by Christmas, and I expect better prices in the new year as the demand dries up even more.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by aa909

everything tanking. Look at the Rolex Hulks which were priced at $25K-$30K (if you can believe that, they made a million of these LOL) now listed at $16K-$17K and going lower. The Sprite was in the $28K range all year and now it's down to $21K and going lower. Pepsi's were $25K and now $16K-$17K and going lower. Batmans listing now almost at retail+tax. IMO Greys have to sell their inventory by Christmas, and I expect better prices in the new year as the demand dries up even more.

and normal business have inventory again without backlogs
and houses are down
and car prices are plummeting
and huge companies making massive layoffs

What happened to all the guys over the last months saying 'no, the demand is still there, this is temporary, buy the dip!'.

[Vivalas]

Originally Posted by dmash

and normal business have inventory again without backlogs
and houses are down
and car prices are plummeting
and huge companies making massive layoffs

What happened to all the guys over the last months saying 'no, the demand is still there, this is temporary, buy the dip!'.

Yep house prices, car prices, the stock market and yes watch prices are all down in value recently.

Whilst people are free to post about what they want, it’s just such a shame that the most active thread on this AP page recently is all about prices dropping and not about the reason that we’re all here - our love of AP watches.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vivalas

Yep house prices, car prices, the stock market and yes watch prices are all down in value recently.

Whilst people are free to post about what they want, it’s just such a shame that the most active thread on this AP page recently is all about prices dropping and not about the reason that we’re all here - our love of AP watches.

Correct, and obviously those two things are intermingled in present day. Supply restraints due to flippers have made our love of watches in general completely tarnished. So while it's unfortunate a drop in the watch market coincides with other markets being down, the silver lining is that is does allow some sense of normalcy to return and us to enjoy said timepieces once again. and fwiw could honestly be better for all markets overall, as a lot of stuff has been feeling like a casino accompanied by a sense of uneasiness.

I still don't get this point some of you guys bring up. It's two faceted, prices going down AND us being able to get allocations/find used deals (below retail like any normal market) once again is a good thing. It's in no way similar to the posts of 2021 speaking about valuations booming and ignoring the horological aspects.

You know why it's hard to discuss intricate details of recent AP releases and have a clamored thread? Because no ADs have stock. because (as evidenced by MODA/Chrono24/eBay) theyre getting flipped by proclaimed 'VIPs who deserve the allocations'. It's honestly a bit of a drag to just discuss what you can't even see/touch in person, but only view in front of a computer screen. That's the reality why you don't even more active threads elsewhere.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by aa909

everything tanking. Look at the Rolex Hulks which were priced at $25K-$30K (if you can believe that, they made a million of these LOL) now listed at $16K-$17K and going lower. The Sprite was in the $28K range all year and now it's down to $21K and going lower. Pepsi's were $25K and now $16K-$17K and going lower. Batmans listing now almost at retail+tax. IMO Greys have to sell their inventory by Christmas, and I expect better prices in the new year as the demand dries up even more.

100% agree

Originally Posted by Vivalas

Yep house prices, car prices, the stock market and yes watch prices are all down in value recently.

Whilst people are free to post about what they want, it’s just such a shame that the most active thread on this AP page recently is all about prices dropping and not about the reason that we’re all here - our love of AP watches.

My ability to get a royal oak is directly tied to secondary market pricing. It’s not a shame at all. What is a shame is those who pump up pricing, and cheered this absurd bubble. Dmash is right.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by dmash

Correct, and obviously those two things are intermingled in present day. Supply restraints due to flippers have made our love of watches in general completely tarnished. So while it's unfortunate a drop in the watch market coincides with other markets being down, the silver lining is that is does allow some sense of normalcy to return and us to enjoy said timepieces once again. and fwiw could honestly be better for all markets overall, as a lot of stuff has been feeling like a casino accompanied by a sense of uneasiness.

I still don't get this point some of you guys bring up. It's two faceted, prices going down AND us being able to get allocations/find used deals (below retail like any normal market) once again is a good thing. It's in no way similar to the posts of 2021 speaking about valuations booming and ignoring the horological aspects.

You know why it's hard to discuss intricate details of recent AP releases and have a clamored thread? Because no ADs have stock. because (as evidenced by MODA/Chrono24/eBay) theyre getting flipped by proclaimed 'VIPs who deserve the allocations'. It's honestly a bit of a drag to just discuss what you can't even see/touch in person, but only view in front of a computer screen. That's the reality why you don't even more active threads elsewhere.

Exactly, what are we supposed to discuss frankly? First off, the fact that this has so much traffic (in a section of the site that isnt super highly frequented) shows where interest is...

Second, I'd love to comment / review / congratulate people on incoming. But there aren't any (or people who do get them aren't on this site)! Outside of a random 15500 white or the lucky bastard (in a nice way) to get a ROC CE, activity has been slow to nonexistent. So I must assume either watches go to VIPs only that don't bother to post or greys who don't bother to post.

I'd love to congratulate folks on a LE, a tourbillon, a CE model, a 16202 etc. But regular folks don't seem to get them

[messikens]

Last comment : same with going to the boutique. There's no point!? My SA great and I'd love to pop by, chat and try on some models but they don't have any...

AP house is slightly better, but only slightly. So I can't even discuss models that I won't ever be offered anyway since there aren't even basic models to try on in the boutique (let alone rare ones)

YMMV of course

[aa909]

Originally Posted by dmash

Correct, and obviously those two things are intermingled in present day. Supply restraints due to flippers have made our love of watches in general completely tarnished. So while it's unfortunate a drop in the watch market coincides with other markets being down, the silver lining is that is does allow some sense of normalcy to return and us to enjoy said timepieces once again. and fwiw could honestly be better for all markets overall, as a lot of stuff has been feeling like a casino accompanied by a sense of uneasiness.

I still don't get this point some of you guys bring up. It's two faceted, prices going down AND us being able to get allocations/find used deals (below retail like any normal market) once again is a good thing. It's in no way similar to the posts of 2021 speaking about valuations booming and ignoring the horological aspects.

You know why it's hard to discuss intricate details of recent AP releases and have a clamored thread? Because no ADs have stock. because (as evidenced by MODA/Chrono24/eBay) theyre getting flipped by proclaimed 'VIPs who deserve the allocations'. It's honestly a bit of a drag to just discuss what you can't even see/touch in person, but only view in front of a computer screen. That's the reality why you don't even more active threads elsewhere.

nailed it

[aa909]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

100% agree



My ability to get a royal oak is directly tied to secondary market pricing. It’s not a shame at all. What is a shame is those who pump up pricing, and cheered this absurd bubble. Dmash is right.

Double nailed it LOL!

[Vivalas]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

My ability to get a royal oak is directly tied to secondary market pricing. It’s not a shame at all. What is a shame is those who pump up pricing, and cheered this absurd bubble. Dmash is right.

You don’t think it’s a shame that all the talk seems to be about prices falling instead of the actually watches? We’ll just have to agree to disagree then.

This forum and the help from some fantastic members helped me to get a RO two years ago from scratch.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vivalas

You don’t think it’s a shame that all the talk seems to be about prices falling instead of the actually watches? We’ll just have to agree to disagree then.

Originally Posted by dmash

You know why it's hard to discuss intricate details of recent AP releases and have a clamored thread? Because no ADs have stock. because (as evidenced by MODA/Chrono24/eBay) theyre getting flipped by proclaimed 'VIPs who deserve the allocations'. It's honestly a bit of a drag to just discuss what you can't even see/touch in person, but only view in front of a computer screen. That's the reality why you don't even more active threads elsewhere.

.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by Vivalas

You don’t think it’s a shame that all the talk seems to be about prices falling instead of the actually watches? We’ll just have to agree to disagree then.

This forum and the help from some fantastic members helped me to get a RO two years ago from scratch.

the operative phrase being "2 years ago", as in 2020 before the insanity set in. Believe me we all want to get back there, and this thread is helpful to many of us as we gauge the trajectory of the secondary market as a lead indicator of how soon we may return to the days of normalcy.