Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[dmash]

Originally Posted by 911AP

God bless you But you are about to get virtually jumped now as anyone who posts in this thread and disagrees or has an opposing view to the main man.

Jackson’s #2 man has arrived

911 are you here to reiterate how prices will recover and this is only temporary? That was only a couple months ago you were saying this

Hahaha

[mikel]

Best to stick to prices and availability. Thread is too interesting to lose.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by mikel

Best to stick to prices and availability. Thread is too interesting to lose.

If you want me to be honest, it’s getting difficult to post updates……..






……..because in the minutes it takes for me to make an update, there’s a likely possibility it’s already dropped further in value


In all seriousness though I enjoy watching some of these guys phases and blatantly squirming behind their computer screens. As not a chance they’d post objection unless they had lost money buying top grey as investments or are flipping and underwater. It’s so obvious and they don’t even realize it, despite their cries otherwise.

Back into the hands of real horologists we go!

[psm11]

Originally Posted by dmash

if you want me to be honest, it’s getting difficult to post updates……..






……..because in the minutes it takes for me to make an update, there’s a likely possibility it’s already dropped further in value


In all seriousness though i enjoy watching some of these guys phases and blatantly squirming behind their computer screens. As not a chance they’d post objection unless they had lost money buying top grey as investments or are flipping and underwater. It’s so obvious and they don’t even realize it, despite their cries otherwise.

Back into the hands of real horologists we go!

this!

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by dmash

In all seriousness though I enjoy watching some of these guys phases and blatantly squirming behind their computer screens. As not a chance they’d post objection unless they had lost money buying top grey as investments or are flipping and underwater. It’s so obvious and they don’t even realize it, despite their cries otherwise.

Back into the hands of real horologists we go!

It is a classic. Stubborn investors kept their precious believing the trend would reverse in their favor.

"Christmas is coming" was their hope (narrative pushed by some unprofessional greys). It turned out to be a mirage.

Now they realize that they have to act and lose more than anticipated.

They come to TRF to search for advice and comfort and... they read our posts...

Bottom has not been reached as more investors will unload to "trade up"...

[psm11]

There was just a 15400 listed in moda for like $31k that has since disappeared. Anyone know why they would be? Same thing happened the other day for a low priced 15500. Are mods removing?

[dmash]

26240st BNIB nov22 with papers $54500 and sitting, not even a peep of interest. These have been on the cusp of moving into 40’s should do so in the next couple weeks in my opinion, before settling into the 30’s

[messikens]

Originally Posted by dmash

26240st BNIB nov22 with papers $54500 and sitting, not even a peep of interest. These have been on the cusp of moving into 40’s should do so in the next couple weeks in my opinion, before settling into the 30’s

White dial I assume?

Still -> from 6 months ago. These were in the 90s - 110s...

Any other 26420s? I've stopped looking at C24, the market has completely frozen / not updated at all... It's almost as if people have given up and are either just on Moda or trying to wait it out

[911AP]

Originally Posted by dmash

If you want me to be honest, it’s getting difficult to post updates……..






……..because in the minutes it takes for me to make an update, there’s a likely possibility it’s already dropped further in value


In all seriousness though I enjoy watching some of these guys phases and blatantly squirming behind their computer screens. As not a chance they’d post objection unless they had lost money buying top grey as investments or are flipping and underwater. It’s so obvious and they don’t even realize it, despite their cries otherwise.

Back into the hands of real horologists we go!

Idk about that.....All my APs were either bought well below retail before the hype or at retail during/after the hype.....

You love making assumptions about other people though...

Just to be clear on my stance I actually would welcome the market very much to go back to pre covid. As I said before, I could then get watches such as the ceramic perpetual or ceramic openworked at retail or maybe slightly above.

But as I keep saying you keep posting busted watches from Moda as how you price the market. My prediction wasn't months ago. I clearly said as long as inflation and the market is doing what it is, all asset classes will continue to go down. When inflation is controlled the markets will go up again. All markets. Stocks, real estate, crypto, watches,...whatever. So yes....it's temporary. Enjoy it while it last. As I said before....it probably won't go back to the insane levels but it'll be somewhere in the middle of that and where it is now.

You like to pick and choose snippets from what I say though to attempt to suit your arguments I've noticed.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by dmash

26240st BNIB nov22 with papers $54500 and sitting, not even a peep of interest. These have been on the cusp of moving into 40’s should do so in the next couple weeks in my opinion, before settling into the 30’s

Originally Posted by 911AP

But as I keep saying you keep posting busted watches from Moda as how you price the market.

You like to pick and choose snippets from what I say though to attempt to suit your arguments I've noticed.

^

Nothing you say makes sense. Ever. Prime example above lol.

Additionally, how many times do you need to read that people here like this content and our posts. You’re essentially alone (with max 1-2 others) who don’t like these threads (and laughably try to claim I’m the one people don’t want posting). Why is it so hard for you to just cease to respond here? Watch though, you’ll have something else I’m sure

Just call it a day and move on. Unless you had some type of agenda why would you even exert energy here.

[jingerman]

is the market still so bad right now? although it seriously got to ridiculous levels during Covid, glad it came down

[Bstewart]

Originally Posted by jingerman

is the market still so bad right now? although it seriously got to ridiculous levels during Covid, glad it came down

Yes

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by dmash

Why is it so hard for you to just cease to respond here? Watch though, you’ll have something else (compelling non related) to say.

Just call it a day and move on. Unless you had some type of agenda why would you even exert energy here. thumbsup:

Warren Buffett explained why: https://youtu.be/NBVDqAHQ4-M?t=137

TLDW: He thinks he "invested" his money into watches, but he actually put his money into watched to gamble/speculate.

[Watchwoody]

It’s funny to me that people really thought prices would go up forever. They speculated on mass produced watches. I love the idea of prices coming back to reality so that I can add the discontinued watches I want at a reasonable price. Do I care if my collection has lost “value” on paper? No. So what if my Skydweller isn’t worth 30k anymore. Do I still love it as much as the day I picked it up from the AD? Yes.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Watchwoody

It’s funny to me that people really thought prices would go up forever. They speculated on mass produced watches. I love the idea of prices coming back to reality so that I can add the discontinued watches I want at a reasonable price. Do I care if my collection has lost “value” on paper? No. So what if my Skydweller isn’t worth 30k anymore. Do I still love it as much as the day I picked it up from the AD? Yes.

even at the PEAK you had IG self proclaimed gurus forecasting higher prices, offering classes on 'how to flip watches', an entire debacle. Lots bought into it as well.

The worst thing though is that due to valuations, people were/still are, bamboozled into thinking watches are their 'grail' pieces when they really weren't. The amount of people claiming to love a Pepsi GMT or Hulk is ridiculous. When those are back below MSRP they will sell those off in a heartbeat. Not to mention the Daytona which SO many people think is actually too small and illegible.

Of course there are individuals who love those pieces, but I'd venture to say well over half the current owners don't really even love them. They just loved the IDEA of them.

[dmash]

77350st 34mm RO for your wife, 22.75k. 2021 model w/ box, card, links, mint condition.

that's under retail. 37's next, then 41's.

[Michigan_State]

Originally Posted by 911AP

When inflation is controlled the markets will go up again…As I said before....it probably won't go back to the insane levels but it'll be somewhere in the middle of that and where it is now.

I’m not sure. That’s linear thinking in terms of watches even being a thing then. This potential recession might take some time and I can literally see a bunch of young guys being completely uninterested in submariners, gmts and skydwellers, ie watches in general. to them it’s like facebook, old ppl stuff.

[Vince_76]

@911AP - watch prices can just revert to the mean (e.g., pre-2018) even when the economy picks up steam. These are mass produced watches - and it’s only a phenomenon of the past 24 months that these things have been covered. It has an investment among speculators. There have been plenty points in history, where we’ve had a hot economy, all-time highs in various public market, indexes, and in real estate, yet had watches trading at or below retail.

Some pricing updates:

- 15400 complete set 31.5k (no takers)
- 15500 blue dial full set 45.5k (no takers)
- RO dual time box and papers 29.5k (no takers)
- 15300 with papers 29.9k (no takers)
- 15300 blue dial watch only 33k (no takers)
- 15400 blue dial with papers 39.9k (no takers)
- RO dual time watch only 30k (no takers)

I of course am quite bearish, but even I am taken aback by the fact that there really is no tested bottom here. Anyone who thinks prices have stabilized or will bounce back anytime soon is disconnected from reality.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

@911AP - watch prices can just revert to the mean (e.g., pre-2018) even when the economy picks up steam. These are mass produced watches - and it’s only a phenomenon of the past 24 months that these things have been covered. It has an investment among speculators. There have been plenty points in history, where we’ve had a hot economy, all-time highs in various public market, indexes, and in real estate, yet had watches trading at or below retail.

Some pricing updates:

- 15400 complete set 31.5k (no takers)
- 15500 blue dial full set 45.5k (no takers)
- RO dual time box and papers 29.5k (no takers)
- 15300 with papers 29.9k (no takers)
- 15300 blue dial watch only 33k (no takers)
- 15400 blue dial with papers 39.9k (no takers)
- RO dual time watch only 30k (no takers)

I of course am quite bearish, but even I am taken aback by the fact that there really is no tested bottom here. Anyone who thinks prices have stabilized or will bounce back anytime soon is disconnected from reality.

In my opinion the reason it's different today than the past is because people's views of watches have fundamentally changed. As a result demand has gone up. Supply is still low compared to demand. I won't speak on Rolex because it's mass produced. But AP, Patek, and RM are not.

Hypothetical example. Let's say a RO before covid was below retail. After the demand shift by what I described and the demand boost from speculators it was 5x retail.

Now you eliminate the demand boost by the speculators you still have the other demand boost. That's why I say it'll revert somewhere in-between pre covid and post covid mania. Right now it's artificially low. Supply was dumped all at once because of the decline and panic selling. But once that supply is absorbed, prices will go up again. It won't go back to 5x but something in-between. That supply is taking longer to get absorbed because also crypto, stocks, and everything else that makes people waste money on trinkets they don't need is also going down.

Which is why my money is on if inflation gets under control and these assets go up, watch prices will go up as well. This is my speculation. It could be wrong, could be right who knows...

Originally Posted by Michigan_State

I’m not sure. That’s linear thinking in terms of watches even being a thing then. This potential recession might take some time and I can literally see a bunch of young guys being completely uninterested in submariners, gmts and skydwellers, ie watches in general. to them it’s like facebook, old ppl stuff.

The recession is already here. It just doesn't feel like it because right before people at record levels of savings and money. Right now we had a below expectation inflation number. We gotta see if maybe now inflation is under control. But it could not be. Typically it comes in waves. Having stagflation right now is killing us.

[dmash]

@Vince at least now he's not droning on about all your examples being 'busted up'. We've made progress

[911AP]

Originally Posted by dmash

@Vince at least now he's not droning on about all your examples being 'busted up'. We've made progress

Only 3 were complete......I haven't seen the non complete ones to claim if they are busted or not.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

In my opinion the reason it's different today than the past is because people's views of watches have fundamentally changed. As a result demand has gone up.

Well, we just have to respectfully disagree here. I understand your argument, but it is predicated on several assumptions that I don’t agree with.

COVID didn’t magically change people’s’ sentiments on watches (e.g., I don’t believe all the interest is coming from those who are intrinsically interested in the hobby). Rather, it was the helicopter money, crypto craze, and idiots on Instagram posing as investment advisors that drove the bulk of this new demand. Anecdotally, from people I know and have talked to, that has been the case.

If I could bet, I’d take reversion of the mean over an absurd bubble in perpetuity

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Well, we just have to respectfully disagree here. I understand your argument, but it is predicated on several assumptions that I don’t agree with.

COVID didn’t magically change people’s’ sentiments on watches (e.g., I don’t believe all the interest is coming from those who are intrinsically interested in the hobby). Rather, it was the helicopter money, crypto craze, and idiots on Instagram posing as investment advisors that drove the bulk of this new demand. Anecdotally, from people I know and have talked to, that has been the case.

If I could bet, I’d take reversion of the mean over an absurd bubble in perpetuity

I'm not saying covid itself changed it. All the people who were brought attention to watches as investments, I'm betting some as a result genuinely got into watches.

I personally know some people like this who now have gotten into the hobby. Not just for the "safe purchase" or "investment" because it brought attention to something they weren't focused on before.

But yes, definitely the helicopter money, crypto craze, and the idiots on instagram contributed to the hype values. This is fact. I just don't agree that it'll go back to where it was pre covid.

Also back then you had ADs giving 30% off. That isn't going to happen going forward. That is another fundamental shift. I think we are saying the same thing. I'm just saying "reversion to the mean" is not pre covid levels. There is a new "mean" so to speak. That is somewhere between retail and 5x over. As a result of the investment angle, AP, Patek, and RM had more free marketing than they could ever dream of. I see these watches posted by people on instagram like never before. No one knew barely what a royal oak was before covid. Now far more people know the brand AP and the royal oak exist now. This is what has created a fundamental increase in demand beyond the pre covid level.

[Watchwoody]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Now you eliminate the demand boost by the speculators you still have the other demand boost. That's why I say it'll revert somewhere in-between pre covid and post covid mania. Right now it's artificially low. Supply was dumped all at once because of the decline and panic selling. But once that supply is absorbed, prices will go up again. It won't go back to 5x but something in-between. That supply is taking longer to get absorbed because also crypto, stocks, and everything else that makes people waste money on trinkets they don't need is also going down.
.

You think they are artificially low right now? I don’t think we’ve seen any panic selling yet. Dealers are still praying for a holiday pop before they are forced to fire sale.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by Watchwoody

You think they are artificially low right now? I don’t think we’ve seen any panic selling yet. Dealers are still praying for a holiday pop before they are forced to fire sale.

100% spot on. In fact the decline in prices has been quite orderly so far. The only panic the market has exhibited the past 2+ years was panic-buying (FOMO), which ended about 6 months ago. IMO panic selling probably starts in late Q1 / early Q2.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Watchwoody

You think they are artificially low right now? I don’t think we’ve seen any panic selling yet. Dealers are still praying for a holiday pop before they are forced to fire sale.

Originally Posted by aa909

100% spot on. In fact the decline in prices has been quite orderly so far. The only panic the market has exhibited the past 2+ years was panic-buying (FOMO), which ended about 6 months ago. IMO panic selling probably starts in late Q1 / early Q2.

Hmmmm???? No panic selling? Watches dropped by more than 50% since March-April.

It took 2 years for it to gradually go up little by little. It fell like an elevator crashing to the floor.

Just to pick on the 15202st as an example. March-April I remember seeing like 5 of them on chrono24. Then 1-2 months later there were like 40. Whether they were real watches or not doesn't really matter. The amount of listing went up like 10x. That's panic selling. There was similar behavior across all the hype brands and hype watches.

To me for a market that is very lagged.....that is panic selling.

I'm wondering at this point are we looking at the same market . Assets go up like an escalator down like an elevator. Watches did exactly that.....

[dmash]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Hmmmm???? No panic selling? Watches dropped by more than 50% since March-April.

from non-sensical/non-explainable highs.

1 + 1 =/ 3 no matter how badly you want to be right on this topic


also 911 stop chasing me to other threads, it's starting to become worrisome. https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...1#post12482607

[911AP]

Originally Posted by dmash

from non-sensical/non-explainable highs.

1 + 1 =/ 3 no matter how badly you want to be right on this topic


also 911 stop chasing me to other threads, it's starting to become worrisome. https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...1#post12482607

It's not chasing you. It's that I can't escape you. Any thread on this entire forum I click on to escape, has you there already arguing about prices and the market dropping with people.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by 911AP

It's not chasing you. It's that I can't escape you. Any thread on this entire forum I click on to escape, has you there already arguing about prices and the market dropping with people.

so to get this straight, you just conveniently didn't read where somebody else DIRECTLY asked me for pricing info? actually THREE people. LOL

keep it moving dude, your never-ending love for me is coming off odd.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by dmash

so to get this straight, you just conveniently didn't read where somebody else DIRECTLY asked me for pricing info? actually THREE people. LOL

keep it moving dude, your never-ending love for me is coming off odd.

delusions are real...must be the Cookie Monster picture