Will Rolex values drop significantly in the coming years?

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by AK797

Not really. Darwinian survival of the fittest is not only the strongest but also the most adaptive and in the "polluted" car market there is far more need for that, not so much for watches.

Sure, that's my point. Apple is already the world's #1 watch maker in only a few short years. If they get health metrics to the point where these things are indispensable to all of us, Rolex will have to adapt, too. Health insurance companies are already giving Apple Watches away because of the health benefits, despite the technology being in its infancy.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

Sure, that's my point. Apple is already the world's #1 watch maker in only a few short years. If they get health metrics to the point where these things are indispensable to all of us, Rolex will have to adapt, too. Health insurance companies are already giving Apple Watches away because of the health benefits, despite the technology being in its infancy.

Yes, Rolex may have to adapt too, but as to them and indeed Porsche being run out of town, I can't see it.

[marc2828]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

Sure, that's my point. Apple is already the world's #1 watch maker in only a few short years. If they get health metrics to the point where these things are indispensable to all of us, Rolex will have to adapt, too. Health insurance companies are already giving Apple Watches away because of the health benefits, despite the technology being in its infancy.

I do think this concept has merit, but you have 2 wrists. It may be a "watch" for time is on one wrist and a "health meter Fit bit" will be on the other. I look at the time a lot and I look at my large smart phone a lot, but never a little screen (i.e. Apple watch).

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by AK797

Yes, Rolex may have to adapt too, but as to them and indeed Porsche being run out of town, I can't see it.

I certainly can't see it with Porsche. Rolex and Ferrari will both have to change, eventually, so we'll see how they handle it.

p.s. Just to be clear, even though I'm arguing for the potential decline of Rolex as a mechanical watch maker, I'm not rooting for it. I mean, I'm still a "Xenial" guy wearing watches, spinning records and strumming 80 year old acoustic guitars. I'll likely be one of the "niche" guys. What will be really funny is all of the old guys in 40 years making fun of the young "hipsters" wearing mechanical watches, just like we see know with young guys with handlebar mustaches and pocket watches.

[krh7]

Originally Posted by AK797

The overall market for luxury watches will certainly contract and that will lead to a Darwinian survival of the fittest, and with 19 of the top 20 selling watches in the UK over £5K being Rolexes, Rolex will survive this contraction largely unscathed as other similar and lesser luxury brands will capitulate to the irevolution. Prestige, status and emotion will fuel Rolex's growth for years to come.

agree with this. too many people on here are predicting the current trend as a straight line into the future. there will always be price corrections and recessions...and eventually higher interest rates tempting people to unload their rolex vault for better returns. call it a healthy correction in prices.

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by marc2828

I do think this concept has merit, but you have 2 wrists. It may be a "watch" for time is on one wrist and a "health meter Fit bit" will be on the other. I look at the time a lot and I look at my large smart phone a lot, but never a little screen (i.e. Apple watch).

Ugh, "double wristing" it is pretty embarrassing to see in the wild. It's like someone glueing a typewriter to their laptop.

[JUSTIFIED]

I have 4 sons ranging from 22-28. They all have mechanical watches. They wouldn't wear an Apple watch if you gave it them. Why? Because they're growing tired of all of the digital, connected to everything 24x7 life style. Their friends are as well.

[Roll the Lex]

Rolex is and always will be an aspirational item to own.

As long as the trend setters, the wealthy, the Instagram set, etc. keep on buying Rolexes and dictating that it is something to aspire to own, I think that the desire for a Rolex will trickle down to the masses.

Apple tried to force this with the gold Apple watches by given them out to celebrities and having them get out and about. Didn't really work.

I think we'll have a problem when the Instagram set put an Apple Watch rather than a Rolex next to a Goyard wallet, the latest iPhone, and a set of keys to a Ferrari.

[JUSTIFIED]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

Sure, that's my point. Apple is already the world's #1 watch maker in only a few short years. If they get health metrics to the point where these things are indispensable to all of us, Rolex will have to adapt, too. Health insurance companies are already giving Apple Watches away because of the health benefits, despite the technology being in its infancy.

This is true. And... insurance companies want to be able to gather information about their insured's health by gaining access to their Fit Bit and iWatch health data. Um, thanks, but no thanks. Way too much intrusion into our personal lives.

[marc2828]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

Ugh, "double wristing" it is pretty embarrassing to see in the wild. It's like someone glueing a typewriter to their laptop.

I am not saying it will be two large watches....the health meter could be a band or thin bracelet.

[GradyPhilpott]

My smartphone tells time and so does my Fitbit, which I usually wear on my left wrist because I bowl right handed and the Fitbit won't fit over my glove.

I also wear a watch on my left wrist. (Sorry, douglasf13.)

Why?

Because a Fitbit is not a watch, even if it does tell time, among other things.

I once believed that I'd never own another analog watch, because I could wear a watch that cost about $50 that stored my phone numbers and schedule and was also a calculator, a stopwatch, a count-down timer, and an alarm.

Then I bought an analog quartz watch, but I held to the idea that I'd never own another mechanical watch.

Then I bought a mechanical watch and well, guess what. I now have at least a dozen mechanical watches and that's just about all I ever wear.

It's really not a good idea to judge a whole society longitudinally by the behavior of the young, even though a lot of behavioral studies use undergraduate subjects. Even researchers understand the problem with that model, but undergrads are plentiful on college campuses where much of the research is done.

Wristwatches replaced the pocket watch mainly because wristwatches are much more practical than pocket watches and guess where people keep their smartphones most of the time.

We might plausibly presume that as smartwatches become more capable that they might replace wristwatches and they might among a certain demographic for awhile, but frankly, if the digital calculator, phone book, scheduler, timer, stopwatch,and alarm watch couldn't do it, why should anyone think that adding a phone feature would do it?

Anything is possible, but it seems to me that history is ultimately on the side of the mechanical wristwatch.

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by JUSTIFIED

This is true. And... insurance companies want to be able to gather information about their insured's health by gaining access to their Fit Bit and iWatch health data. Um, thanks, but no thanks. Way too much intrusion into our personal lives.

Sure thing. I'm simply saying that the health data is worth it enough to them to give them away, and we're in the infancy of all of this.

Here on the West Coast, I see Apple Watches everywhere, and they've grown by 50% for three straight quarters. I'm just saying, be prepared for the tide. I'm fully prepared for my 5 year old son to be only marginally impressed by any mechanical watches I leave him, just like the pocket watch and ebony cane I've been gifted from deceased relatives in the past.

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by marc2828

I am not saying it will be two large watches....the health meter could be a band or thin bracelet.

Yeah, I guess if it was so thin that it couldn't functionally display the time, I'd get it. I tried out a pretty thin health band once, but it still displayed the time, so there was no reason to wear a mechanical watch simultaneously.

Granted, I still look at Rolex watches as tools. There's something about "double wristing" that's a step too far.

[breitlings]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

Sure thing. I'm simply saying that the health data is worth it enough to them to give them away, and we're in the infancy of all of this.

Here on the West Coast, I see Apple Watches everywhere, and they've grown by 50% for three straight quarters. I'm just saying, be prepared for the tide. I'm fully prepared for my 5 year old son to be only marginally impressed by any mechanical watches I leave him, just like the pocket watch and ebony cane I've been gifted from deceased relatives in the past.

they aren't rapping about apple watches.

[montecarlo77]

Originally Posted by AK797

I suppose you may have a point, altho it seems very unlikely that something could come up to replace a Rolex at this price point when the top three brands signifying wealth and status for men are Rolex, Ferrari and Porsche, and these have taken many careful years to become the internationally respected and revered symbols they are, history and achievement is critical here. Something could possibly emerge to replace Rolex but I can't see it, just as it is hard to see the other two car behemoths being side-lined from history.

AK797: You brought up cars and today on CNBC Bob Lutz the former Vice Chairman of GM said that the end of the car industry is near, and that nobody will own cars in the future. He seems to believe that autonomous vehicles owned by companies like Uber will make serious inroads and then governments will ban human drivers because they will be the only remaining major source of accidents and traffic problems. Things for the auto industry are clearly changing in the coming years as well...

[Mystro]

Is "double wristing" any more acceptable than "double fisting"? (Bar definition)

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by montecarlo77

AK797: You brought up cars and today on CNBC Bob Lutz the former Vice Chairman of GM said that the end of the car industry is near, and that nobody will own cars in the future. He seems to believe that autonomous vehicles owned by companies like Uber will make serious inroads and then governments will ban human drivers because they will be the only remaining major source of accidents and traffic problems. Things for the auto industry are clearly changing in the coming years as well...

As of today, Waymo seems to be getting a jump on everyone:

https://jalopnik.com/waymo-is-launch...-in-1820217901

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Is "double wristing" any more acceptable than "double fisting"? (Bar definition)

It depends on the clientele, I'd imagine.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

It depends on the clientele, I'd imagine.

See, I added the clarification for the questionable interpretations.

[springer]

Originally Posted by montecarlo77

It seems like there might be a massive secular demographic shift in watch buying in that the younger generation is not buying watches and relying mostly on their smartphones. Take a look at the shares of Fossil Group (FOSL) which traded at $120 in 2014 and now trade for about $6...

With the lower end of the watch market caving in, how much longer before it starts to really impact the high end? I know some will say that there will always be a market for a Rolex and that is true but it clearly seems to be shrinking. Remember when pocket watches were a status symbol? When is the last time you saw someone using a pocket watch?

Based on these dramatic trends, I find it hard to believe that there will be enough millenials to buy up all the Submariners, GMT's etc as older generations retire, and have estate sales. That makes me question if a Rolex will be able to hold up in value as it has in the past. Prices paid today in the used market could be much lower in 5 to 10 years. What does everyone else think?

Seems like you already have your mind made up for gloom and doom.

Personally, I don't see it happening. Most people that buy luxury watches aren't buying them for some high-dollar future return/appreciation.

[springer]

Originally Posted by rolexchilla

It's not about time, it's about prestige.

Finally....we have a winner here. Thank you. Someone gets it!

[JUSTIFIED]

Aren't we already a small, niche group when compared to the watch owners as a whole? Meaning, what market share is the iWatch going to steal from Rolex, exactly? Smart cars nor Prius' stole market share from high end luxury cars. Tesla is stealing some, but it's competing in that market. However, I doubt they're taking too much market share from Porsche, Ferrari, etc. More likely from Audi, Lexus, etc.

Also, Rolex understands its (edited to correct grammatical error it's its, not it's customers) customers and is a master at this game... they'll survive and, most likely, continue thriving.

[Godfather111]

Originally Posted by JUSTIFIED

Aren't we already a small, niche group when compared to the watch owners as a whole? Meaning, what market share is the iWatch going to steal from Rolex, exactly?

Also, Rolex understands it's customers and is a master at this game... they'll survive and, most likely, continue thriving.

I agree.

If anything, I think Rolex will remain desirable in the future, while other luxury watches fall by the wayside.

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by JUSTIFIED

Aren't we already a small, niche group when compared to the watch owners as a whole? Meaning, what market share is the iWatch going to steal from Rolex, exactly? Smart cars nor Prius' stole market share from high end luxury cars. Tesla is stealing some, but it's competing in that market. However, I doubt they're taking too much market share from Porsche, Ferrari, etc. More likely from Audi, Lexus, etc.

Also, Rolex understands it's customers and is a master at this game... they'll survive and, most likely, continue thriving.

Rolex is still a mass produced luxury company. Up until this year, Rolex was the biggest selling watch brand in the world, and they sell a lot of watches. This isn’t Patek we’re talking about.

Anecdotally, go over to Mac forums, and you’ll find lots of Rolex owners who bought the Apple Watch. Rolex will be fine for a while, but 10 years down the road? I’d be a little concerned.

I’d call the Apple Watch more Tesla than Prius. They still have Hermès and ceramic models. Spending $1300 (ceramic version) on a watch that will only last a year or two is still relatively extravagant.

[polaris72]

True, however most of us did not purchase Rolex when we were teens or in early 20s either. It's not about age demographics but rather technology shift which may eat some portion of the pie. However, Rolex may just lower the production and keep the prices up for the narrow market.

[JUSTIFIED]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

Rolex is still a mass produced luxury company. Up until this year, Rolex was the biggest selling watch brand in the world, and they sell a lot of watches. This isn’t Patek we’re talking about.

Anecdotally, go over to Mac forums, and you’ll find lots of Rolex owners who bought the Apple Watch. Rolex will be fine for a while, but 10 years down the road? I’d be a little concerned.

I’d call the Apple Watch more Tesla than Prius. They still have Hermès and ceramic models. Spending $1300 (ceramic version) on a watch that will only last a year or two is still relatively extravagant.

Patek or Rolex, it's still rare when compared to majority of other watch brands.... rarely see a Rolex in the wild. However, if they go the way of the Dodo bird, then so be it... may may make them all that much more collectible.

Fun debate.... cheers!

[RolexNorth]

Doubt it.

Was surprised by my 9 year old nephew back in October when at a restaurant at a family gathering he brings up the name Rolex and he hears it's expensive. "More expensive than your watch" he says pointing at my YM2SS.

I chuckle and I ask him, "Do you know what watch brand I'm wearing?" and he answers "Yeah, I can see it. It's a Yachtmaster 2". To which I reply "Dude, look at the dial, what brand name is on the dial????"

He grabs my wrist and looks at it and his jaw drops and he looks at me and asks "How much did it cost???". I tell him, it was expensive, you know how to use google, so google the price!

He won't do it. I won't tell him, because he's gonna blab it to everyone and I don't think it's anyone else's business what I paid.

Anyways, saw him again over Canadian Thanksgiving and he was looking at it again and asking me to spill the beans on the price. LOL

IMO, I believe this brand will be around forever and will only cost more going forward.

[RolexNorth]

Originally Posted by montecarlo77

AK797: You brought up cars and today on CNBC Bob Lutz the former Vice Chairman of GM said that the end of the car industry is near, and that nobody will own cars in the future. He seems to believe that autonomous vehicles owned by companies like Uber will make serious inroads and then governments will ban human drivers because they will be the only remaining major source of accidents and traffic problems. Things for the auto industry are clearly changing in the coming years as well...

Banning human drivers? Won't happen. Weren't we supposed to be in flying cars by now????????

The collateral damage (dead people) that will have to occur in order to make something like this a reality would bankrupt any car company as well as an insurance company.

Add to that people who will intentionally walk in front of these car, even a camera won't help protect against phoney claims and most companies would just make a payoff to settle up.

Then you'll get those who will graffiti the vehicles, scratch them, damage them, because who's going to be there to go after them.

[montecarlo77]

Originally Posted by springer

Finally....we have a winner here. Thank you. Someone gets it!

Springer: Weren't gold pocket watches also about prestige and yet no one uses them today.

[montecarlo77]

Originally Posted by JUSTIFIED

Aren't we already a small, niche group when compared to the watch owners as a whole? Meaning, what market share is the iWatch going to steal from Rolex, exactly? Smart cars nor Prius' stole market share from high end luxury cars. Tesla is stealing some, but it's competing in that market. However, I doubt they're taking too much market share from Porsche, Ferrari, etc. More likely from Audi, Lexus, etc.

Also, Rolex understands its (edited to correct grammatical error it's its, not it's customers) customers and is a master at this game... they'll survive and, most likely, continue thriving.

Justified: I agree Rolex will survive, but I question as to whether Rolex values on the used/secondary market can remain as high since fewer people are wearing mechanical watches.