Why are people obsessing over getting the hard to obtain models?

[jsausley]

Why are people obsessing over getting the hard to obtain models?

Because they're hard to get.

These threads answer themselves sometimes.

It's like there are a bunch of Rolex owners that *don't* want Rolex watches to be popular. I don't get it.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by directioneng

Welcome to my ignore list.

You have a strange way of showing

[904VT]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Outside of extremely rare rare watches the price of used watches have shown to decrease in value (yup even the pepsi gmt).

The wait is ridiculous, you have to spend at an AD, buying in the secondary market (grey) is at a premium.

If this was art and you had to do this to a dealer (invest in the gallery, show up to gallery openings. prove you are not a flipper, etc) I would understand since the painting is unique and most likely to increase in value for hard to attain paintings. I personally bought a painting for 30k and if I sold in the secondary market (auction) it would fetch 200k net in less than a year. The wait for this artists piece is insane. People are on a long wait list. But the ROLEX market is on the same level so just curious as to why.

But why ROLEX? Do people here think about this? The amount of time it takes?

I get because we enjoy as a hobby but some here look at it as investment.

To be quite honest, I think the reason so many are attracted to Rolex are that they are uniform, consistent, and steady pieces. So in other words, the exact opposite of the art market.

[007timer]

Originally Posted by Kliminator

It's human nature... the fact that people can't obtain those specific pieces makes them want it even more. It's crazy how many threads a day we have on the same 3 topics!

Agreed


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[Dsmith1974]

Originally Posted by peterpl

^ I actually mined bitcoin and even bought dedicated rigs to mine bitcoin before the hype started and it got crazy. I started when BTC was still profitable when you could mine it.

Dont get me wrong I took advantage of the hype whilst it lasted. I sold completely out of BTC and most cryptos when BTC was around the $18,000 mark and yes I rode the few slight ups and downs as well.

What I did know already back then and I told all my fellow guys that it was a bubble and a big one at that. It wasn't until the masses started to play that it went crazy and went up and above $22k AUD then I knew this was hype mania and nothing more.

Sold everything and never bought back in. (Well thats a little lie I still hold some IOTA, XRP, STR, TRX and some others now).

Anyway this is exactly what its looking like to me. The masses are in this watch game now not for the love but purely for the speculation and trying to make a quick buck.

Man I still remember asking these so called BTC investors or any crypto investor what exactly was crypto in their view and how it could be used in real world examples. Some of the answers were mind blowing to say the least not in a good way. I would say more than 75% of ppl couldnt even explain the basic function of a block chain.

We are in this exact predicament now with Rolex/AP and Patek. Rolex moreso as its mass produced and the masses are into this brand the most. Ask most guys buying these watches about the heritage, what model has what movement or what is the difference between a 16610LV and a 116610LV or anything like that and most wont know.

Watch it all fall apart one day. I love watches but I know a bubble when I see one.

My guess is a Kermit will hit 30 to 35K GBP and will decline and plateau between 8 to 10.


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[garbanzo]

In collection building, I am leaning on own experience. Purchased Tudor sub in 1994 (when received my first bonus), sold it 2010 at 50 % profit. Given the rate of inflation we are not talking anout huge profits, rather value retention, but that’s good enough for me. I totally agree that art, when chosen well, is a better investment but so what. I enjoy beautiful objects on my wrist much more than on the wall.

[blankapdx]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

Have you ever tried to pickup a beautiful woman with a painting strapped to your wrist?

good one brother!!!

[d4v3]

All the investment videos on YouTube featuring SS Rolex don't help, the hype is hyper atm.

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Dont agree on the SkyD,love the proportions,I have large wrists as well.

Obviously always in the eye of the beholder, but to me, much like the Milgauss, it’s too chubby a watch for its diameter and - out of technical necessity obviously - one with a very wide bezel, which accentuates the problem. Has never really worked for me personally as someone who loves the flat case shape and big open dial of the EXII 42mm on my also very Panerai friendly wrist size, but obviously we’re each different and I’m happy you like it, wear it in good health my friend!

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

Begin rant:
Meet the elephant in the room....people want to be cool, date the hot chick, drive the fast car and own the hot new Rollie. No one wants to admit they buy the brand but they do. I've been suckered into this world as well, I used to know how many jewels and what type of balance bridge a 3135 used, today I know little about the new 3235 as I'm too involved discussing values, canceled watches not in catalogs, or should people buy xyz. Sad.
The fact that many people now including a large percentage of our members who claim to not care about brand name and public perception indeed do care, a whole lot about wearing and being seen with the latest and hot Rolex.
And these same folks who are in denial also love it when the "value" of their cool watch goes up. Every LVC owner right now is dying for it to be cancelled and every SD43 owner is dying to see this elusive and magical MK1 dial sky rocket and every.....the list goes on.

It took the red Submariners and Sea-Dwellers the better part of 30 years to become appreciated and another 10 years on top of that for it to become amazing.
Well today people can't afford to go and spend $80-150k on a Comex Sea-Dweller but it's so easy to generate artificial "social media & street cred" by dreaming about values on your BLNR or LVC.
When these folks talk in their circles do you believe they say, oh this watch costs about $9k.... they are the first to say and proclaim loud how impossible to get it is and how it's actually worth $15k and in a few more years, just wait and see how much my MK1 will be worth.

When I joined the forum people actually bought watches they liked. LVCs sat in cases- too green, GMT2 LN- too boring, Submariners- too common and when the BLNR arrived it was a breath of fresh air but it had many detractors and could easily be bought in most markets.
Fast forward today, people will walk into an AD and outright buy any Rolex available in the professional line even if they didn't want it.
People looking for an 114060 find a GMT2LN buy that, someone looking for a Submariner finds an Explorer 1, buys that...looking for a SD43 finds a D-Blue buys that...not because they actually now discovered they like it, but mostly just need to brag and FOMO. And let's not forget, on a weekly basis it seems there is a rumor from some social media twit that everyone follows that a certain reference will be cancelled.

There is a spike in demand surely, but there is also a bigger spike in global connectivity and the ability to easily profit from secondary sales on merchandise. Instagram and twitter are basically advertising engines by "influencers"(that's a job in 2019).
But I don't really believe in the shortage nor that there is a huge monstrous spike in demand, the huge spike and huge growth can be attributed to none other than that middle grey layer- secondary sales or grey dealers/markets. Every Rolex watch you could ever want is easily available through one of these sources with the odd real exception like the Blue Skydweller. Why should Rolex increase production, the watches are largely available, they are just bought up by resellers before the average person can buy them, that's why there are dozens available on the sales page and other outlets...your mind will explode shopping watch stores in China, with displays listing 10 BLNRs 12 LVCs and even 5-6 16610 LVs or 16710 GMT2s.

It's the new norm and Rolex with it's AD sales needs to find a solution, although I don't know what that is. Unfortunately this is now a norm and the craze is on for resellers and social media but there is only one thing keeping the flood gates at bay and that is the hundreds and hundreds of people out there not willing to actually pay double for artificially hyped watches.
A 1680 Red Submariner has an official price of $30-50k, a price and valuation built on a solid foundation of time (45 plus years) and scarcity. Yet today people want to value a 16610LV or GMT2 3186 in the same region? Ridiculous.
A BLRO has half to 3/4 of the value as a Daytona Patrizzi dial?
Ludicrous....

Same happens with Yeezy sneakers everyone says are dead...yet sell out in hours and then available for resale at markups everywhere. There are still new in box Yeezys from 4-5 years ago selling online among other sneakers. Greys and resellers which benefit from free advertising from social media are riding the gravy train.

Today I see the beauty in vintage watches which are a much better value and prices still haven't inflated. A nice vintage will start at a considerable but well established $20k while an LVC or BLNR only costs $9k and then you can bandwagon on the speculation.

Today, I will patiently wait for the watch I want. All Rolex watches are beautiful, I've had many and loved everyone but not enough to own them all. My policy is "I" ME personally have to like it, love it in fact before I buy and once I do, that's it, for life, barring some unforeseen family health crisis, I just won't sell. I look forward to the long lasting relationship I can build with my watch.
Did you know Tom Selleck still has and wears the GMT he wore on Magnum PI....that is value and worth.

End rant.

Very eloquently put sir

[R!$]

clout chasers

[BNA/LION]

People Want what they Can't Have!

[broham84]

Originally Posted by peterpl

This is 100000% accurate. It WILL eventually come down 40% increase in 1 year? LMFAO - nothing and I mean nothing is sustainable at that growth.

Heck I thought housing was a bubble increasing 50% in 2-3 years.

This is insanity just like Bitcoin was when every single person was hooked on that. How many ppl got burned on that now? Millions of people. LOL

What's the winning numbers for the powerball?

Housing bubbles in HK, Tokyo, Singapore, Taipei gonna burst in the foreseeable future?

Comparing watches to bitcoin is about the stupidest thing i've seen on the internet today.

[haven_seeker]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

Begin rant
(Snip)
End rant.

I admittedly was going to just skip this post, but I’m glad I went back and read it. Well said my friend.

[liu_watch]

I do not obsess over the hot Rolex models, nor do I understand why anyone is willing to pay a 50%-100% premium for one. But I have a question: did you buy the artwork because you love it, or because you thought it will increase in value, or both?

[liu_watch]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

Begin rant:

Meet the elephant in the room....people want to be cool, date the hot chick, drive the fast car and own the hot new Rollie. No one wants to admit they buy the brand but they do. I've been suckered into this world as well, I used to know how many jewels and what type of balance bridge a 3135 used, today I know little about the new 3235 as I'm too involved discussing values, canceled watches not in catalogs, or should people buy xyz. Sad.

The fact that many people now including a large percentage of our members who claim to not care about brand name and public perception indeed do care, a whole lot about wearing and being seen with the latest and hot Rolex.

And these same folks who are in denial also love it when the "value" of their cool watch goes up. Every LVC owner right now is dying for it to be cancelled and every SD43 owner is dying to see this elusive and magical MK1 dial sky rocket and every.....the list goes on.



It took the red Submariners and Sea-Dwellers the better part of 30 years to become appreciated and another 10 years on top of that for it to become amazing.

Well today people can't afford to go and spend $80-150k on a Comex Sea-Dweller but it's so easy to generate artificial "social media & street cred" by dreaming about values on your BLNR or LVC.

When these folks talk in their circles do you believe they say, oh this watch costs about $9k.... they are the first to say and proclaim loud how impossible to get it is and how it's actually worth $15k and in a few more years, just wait and see how much my MK1 will be worth.



When I joined the forum people actually bought watches they liked. LVCs sat in cases- too green, GMT2 LN- too boring, Submariners- too common and when the BLNR arrived it was a breath of fresh air but it had many detractors and could easily be bought in most markets.

Fast forward today, people will walk into an AD and outright buy any Rolex available in the professional line even if they didn't want it.

People looking for an 114060 find a GMT2LN buy that, someone looking for a Submariner finds an Explorer 1, buys that...looking for a SD43 finds a D-Blue buys that...not because they actually now discovered they like it, but mostly just need to brag and FOMO. And let's not forget, on a weekly basis it seems there is a rumor from some social media twit that everyone follows that a certain reference will be cancelled.



There is a spike in demand surely, but there is also a bigger spike in global connectivity and the ability to easily profit from secondary sales on merchandise. Instagram and twitter are basically advertising engines by "influencers"(that's a job in 2019).

But I don't really believe in the shortage nor that there is a huge monstrous spike in demand, the huge spike and huge growth can be attributed to none other than that middle grey layer- secondary sales or grey dealers/markets. Every Rolex watch you could ever want is easily available through one of these sources with the odd real exception like the Blue Skydweller. Why should Rolex increase production, the watches are largely available, they are just bought up by resellers before the average person can buy them, that's why there are dozens available on the sales page and other outlets...your mind will explode shopping watch stores in China, with displays listing 10 BLNRs 12 LVCs and even 5-6 16610 LVs or 16710 GMT2s.



It's the new norm and Rolex with it's AD sales needs to find a solution, although I don't know what that is. Unfortunately this is now a norm and the craze is on for resellers and social media but there is only one thing keeping the flood gates at bay and that is the hundreds and hundreds of people out there not willing to actually pay double for artificially hyped watches.

A 1680 Red Submariner has an official price of $30-50k, a price and valuation built on a solid foundation of time (45 plus years) and scarcity. Yet today people want to value a 16610LV or GMT2 3186 in the same region? Ridiculous.

A BLRO has half to 3/4 of the value as a Daytona Patrizzi dial?

Ludicrous....



Same happens with Yeezy sneakers everyone says are dead...yet sell out in hours and then available for resale at markups everywhere. There are still new in box Yeezys from 4-5 years ago selling online among other sneakers. Greys and resellers which benefit from free advertising from social media are riding the gravy train.



Today I see the beauty in vintage watches which are a much better value and prices still haven't inflated. A nice vintage will start at a considerable but well established $20k while an LVC or BLNR only costs $9k and then you can bandwagon on the speculation.



Today, I will patiently wait for the watch I want. All Rolex watches are beautiful, I've had many and loved everyone but not enough to own them all. My policy is "I" ME personally have to like it, love it in fact before I buy and once I do, that's it, for life, barring some unforeseen family health crisis, I just won't sell. I look forward to the long lasting relationship I can build with my watch.

Did you know Tom Selleck still has and wears the GMT he wore on Magnum PI....that is value and worth.



End rant.

Words of a true seasoned collector. I’m afraid it will take some time for most newcomers to the hobby to come to that mentality.

Just like in other social phenomenons, we tend to herd and follow trends - it’s safer to do so. The watch world is no different. The leaders create trends/hype, the followers follow...

Only the experienced ones have the confidence in their own judgment and make independent purchasing decisions.

[CEITS]

Originally Posted by liu_watch

I do not obsess over the hot Rolex models, nor do I understand why anyone is willing to pay a 50%-100% premium for one. But I have a question: did you buy the artwork because you love it, or because you thought it will increase in value, or both?

Both.

[CEITS]

Originally Posted by Seibei

This setup sounds improbable to me. If this artist has an insane wait list, why does he not wait "less than a year", sell his work at auction and put the 170k into his own pocket? Is he stupid or is he running some kind of charity? I don't get it.

What does an art dealer care whether you are a flipper or not? Most likely he does not and what he does care about is instant cash and investment in the gallery.

Art dealers care because they don't want the secondary market controlling the prices of artists. Take a look. Spend a weekend visiting galleries and you will learn.

The real art dealers disdain the secondary market outside of the deceased artists such as Warhol, Basquiat, etc. They cannot make any art. The living artists, well that is a different story.

[brandog]

As soon as you mentioned all past SS models have depreciated heavily your argument lost steam.

[CEITS]

Originally Posted by brandog

As soon as you mentioned all past SS models have depreciated heavily your argument lost steam.

Who said heavily? Let me know asap.

[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

Very eloquently put sir

Originally Posted by haven_seeker

I admittedly was going to just skip this post, but I’m glad I went back and read it. Well said my friend.

Originally Posted by liu_watch

Words of a true seasoned collector. I’m afraid it will take some time for most newcomers to the hobby to come to that mentality.

Just like in other social phenomenons, we tend to herd and follow trends - it’s safer to do so. The watch world is no different. The leaders create trends/hype, the followers follow...

Only the experienced ones have the confidence in their own judgment and make independent purchasing decisions.

Thank you gents.
It's a weird time in the watch world. By a large percentage we all loved the same thing about watches in the past, but today it's apparent that people are into watches for new reasons, we are going to just have to accept it.

[broham84]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Yes but the value of used watches do not go up minus the super rare rare models. The SS SUBS, GMT's etc if used will not be valuable 10, 20, 30 years from now. That is why I am curious as to why there is such an obsession?

Originally Posted by CEITS

Who said heavily? Let me know asap.

Your own words. Do you have an idea what a normal 5513 cost brand new and how much they are going for right now?

[rootbeer7]

the answer's in the question!!

[yellowsubmarin]

Everybody wants to be the coolest, funniest part is when it stops being cool. The modern steel sport will fall hard.

[tenerific]

Personally I think the hard to acquire modern Rolexes are the only good models.

If you look at the rest of the Rolex line, it's pretty clear that whoever does product design has really screwed it up over the years. And, instead of fixing that problem, Rolex has constrained supply to move the dogs in the lineup.

I also think it's quite possible that, if you're screwing up on one front in a business that you're screwing up in another. I.e. someone in the business unit messed up their production spreadsheets a few years ago, over anticipated the probability of a recession, etc etc so now we're faced with a two-fold problem - constrained supply exacerbated by the fact that people want the few models that are any good.

[sillo]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Who said heavily? Let me know asap.

Originally Posted by CEITS

3. not wearing it since a used watch decreases in value exponentially.

.

[zengineer]

Participation is optional. I like Rolex but I'm not going to compete for one. There are too many other good brands and watches out there to play the current games. If I was dying for one of the got SS models, I'd get on a list or two and wait. In the meantime I'd be buying Grand Seiko, JLC, Omega and others.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[ALF61]

I notice an ever increasing number of threads like these, and to me it is a good indicator that people are just going doggone nuts over Rolex. The more whining, the more questions for the inexplicable, the more desire, the higher the prices. Crazy.

[Tha Baron]

Seeking validation and trying to impress people you don’t know...

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by Likestheshiny

People who can afford Rolexes want what they want.

Exactly, and the number of people who can keeps increasing fast