Prices are not dropping!

[bezler]

Originally Posted by dori

Is this site considered reliable?


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I visited the site, and read all that they had to say about their site. My initial impression would be unreliable.

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[exador]

Originally Posted by LarsFS

take a look at this site (I am not affiliated with it, nor do I have a dog in the fight either):

https://www.watchpricetrend.com/

I took a quick look. Apparently the Rolex GMT Master 2 126711 is an actual model and China represents 5% of the watch market

[Peter Toronto]

It looks like WatchRecon. I hope that helps.


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[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by Peter Toronto

It looks like WatchRecon. I hope that helps.


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Thank you!


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[Etschell]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I've been reading and watching videos of a few experts claiming prices are dropping and some cases dropping hard. I'm not going to dispute the fact that certain models of certain brands might not be dropping but The Rolex market is as strong as it's ever been. And that's not me saying it, it's Mr Market saying it.

Everybody agrees that a watch is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. You can say it another way also, that a watch IS worth what people are paying for it.

Sotheby's online auction that just closed. Strong pricing. No argument from me that its crazy pricing but that's what the market is saying these watches are worth. So the experts can say what they want I'll go by what people are actually paying.

BLNR Jubilee- 22.5K No drop here
BLRO- 25K Looks like an increase to me
116500LN Black Dial- 27.5K no drop here either
04 Kermit Flat 4- 21,250.00 lot of money for this.

I'll go with auction pricing over what is conveyed on C24 any day.

I have a bridge in Brooklyn I can sell you. Real good deal.

[Tavli3]

And your point being?


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[DTap]

Blro for 17k. No clue about the seller...

https://www.chronext.com/rolex/gmt-m...710blro/V10753

[WatchLurv]

They're dropping in Asia, but not Europe or North America. You're merely at the wrong side of the world.

Prices have dropped 10-15% for some models. They aren't seeing the "gold rush" attitude in terms of pricehike anymore.

[jimcameron]

This use to be a really fun place to spend time with interesting people.

[patrickjb]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

This use to be a really fun place to spend time with interesting people.

It sure did.

[Howie]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

This use to be a really fun place to spend time with interesting people.

I remember when I first joined TRF back in 2008 it was known as 'the friendliest watch forum'...

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

This use to be a really fun place to spend time with interesting people.

It was, and TRF reeeeally needs a separate section for pricing, speculation, etc.

Originally Posted by Howie

I remember when I first joined TRF back in 2008 it was known as 'the friendliest watch forum'...

TRF is still is friendly imho, yet the 'noise' level has become higher than the 'signal' within the General section.

The admins and mods need to find a way to migrate the noise level to a new section for price, speculation, etc

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

It was, and TRF reeeeally needs a separate section for pricing, speculation, etc.




It still is imho, yet the 'noise' level has become higher than the 'signal'.

Again, agreed

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

It was, and TRF reeeeally needs a separate section for pricing, speculation, etc.




TRF is still is friendly imho, yet the 'noise' level has become higher than the 'signal' within the General section.

The admins and mods need to find a way to migrate the noise level to a new section for price, speculation, etc

Please. Let’s remove the rotten Apple before it ruins the rest of the bunch....

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jimcameron

This use to be a really fun place to spend time with interesting people.

Agreed

[georgekart]

I don't see price declines on most models from what I see, Hulk is where it was a month ago, same for BLRO, white 500c might have gone down a bit, but not significantly so. The only thing that went down significantly is BLNRj, which makes sense. Novelty is wearing off and Rolex released a truckload of them, so it is only logical it went down, but I don't see it going down much more.

[Brew]

I think there are some interesting people here, and I sure have learned a whole bunch. This thread and its ilk doesn't fit that description. Speculation about speculation makes WISs go blind, fyi.

[BillA]

Nice to see a new thread on the forum, I thought this was going to be about "I inherited a Rolex from my Grandfather", now that is interesting stuff. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

[Harry-57]

I'll take your "Price Speculation" section and raise you an "Is It Safe Section". (I'll keep the "WRUW" section, the "Incoming" section and the "Show Us Your Modified Rolex" section up my sleeve for now).

[SN13]

Originally Posted by peterpl

How many of each you hoarding? See you on the for sale section. Join date 2019 aiy? So be honest how many did you buy at premium and now hoping your not going to get hosed?

LOL, Exactly my thoughts.


Grief Stage 1 (Denial): "Prices aren't going to go down... Look at these Auctions!"
Grief Stage 2 (Anger): (<~~~ You are about to enter this stage.) I await your "F*** the GREYS! Greedy Hoarders!" type posts.
Grief Stage 3 (Bargaining): Next will be the "You know, the extra $12k I paid wasn't so bad, I did get to enjoy the watch for a Year before anyone else who waited and paid MSRP."
Grief Stage 4 (Depression): Followed by "I can't believe I paid so much. I don't even like wearing it. It is a constant reminder of a $12k void."
Grief Stage 5 (Acceptance): Finally "I know I'll never recoup the cost, but I love it anyway and one day, it will be my Son's watch."

[Wiener48]

Strong results, yes

https://www.sothebys.com/buy/25e5416...e-1ba10a9dfc69

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I've been reading and watching videos of a few experts claiming prices are dropping and some cases dropping hard. I'm not going to dispute the fact that certain models of certain brands might not be dropping but The Rolex market is as strong as it's ever been. And that's not me saying it, it's Mr Market saying it.

Everybody agrees that a watch is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. You can say it another way also, that a watch IS worth what people are paying for it.

Sotheby's online auction that just closed. Strong pricing. No argument from me that its crazy pricing but that's what the market is saying these watches are worth. So the experts can say what they want I'll go by what people are actually paying.

BLNR Jubilee- 22.5K No drop here
BLRO- 25K Looks like an increase to me
116500LN Black Dial- 27.5K no drop here either
04 Kermit Flat 4- 21,250.00 lot of money for this.

I'll go with auction pricing over what is conveyed on C24 any day.

[stash21]

I look forward to "investors" and anyone who bought to make a profit taking a bath whilst I collect a BLRO at retail.

[rambo99]

batgirl is now selling at hkd 115,000. really dropping fast!

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by rambo99

batgirl is now selling at hkd 115,000. really dropping fast!

Yep. I said the same above, but some people are clutching onto straws.

I bought my batman and hulk at reasonable prices. Still at premium, but I didn't offload them, simply because I'm keeping them for my personal collection.

Did you go to the watchfare in TST? That's true market price. C24 is not (and never has been)

[Podmornica]

I brought this up on the thread "prices are dropping hard", but I believe the stock of BLRO and BLNR is getting larger by the day and is moving really slow per chrono24. I have added the cheapest listings of these 2 references to my notepad about 10 weeks ago and they are still there - unsold.

Not sure if the prices will drop hard or not, but I believe they will melt considerably in the next 12 months as we see more BLRO and BLNR hitting the AD. People with the money willing to pay 100% premium probably bought it by now.

Also, my local AD quoted me 5 year waiting time for the BLRO and when I have visited him 2 weeks ago he advised it will be around 2 years now ...

[Late]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

I've been reading and watching videos of a few experts claiming prices are dropping and some cases dropping hard. I'm not going to dispute the fact that certain models of certain brands might not be dropping but The Rolex market is as strong as it's ever been.

I posted some market data last month. Rolex and Patek Philippe are the bright spots. Seiko is doing well, but spending a lot to do it. The rest of the luxury (which is defined as starting a lot lower than some here define it) watch market is "contracting."
Part of this is prestige and part is identity. Rolex has a few very distinctive models and a brand name. Patek Philippe watches are not so instantly recognizable, but their name is quite strong. Omega has neither a visual heritage nor, after their quartz units, a historical prestige to match that of Rolex, even though their movements may be as good or better now.
They didn't cover why Brietling or Paneri, e.g., both very distinctive, are suffering.

[Etschell]

Anyone can see the Rolex price trend is upward in any long term period. It isnt rocket science.

[THC]

I think with 4 pages of almost 100 replies, that No Mod has addressed your request Steven, TRF will remain “as is”

[10klakes]

Anti-climatic read here.

Discussion of price(s), bargaining with ADs, sourcing from greys, watch apps, eBay, and other ways of obtaining these things we collect is and always has been a part of the hobby. The only difference is it’s shifted over the past few years.

We don’t need a separate section- the old guard needs to resist from clicking on titles they know are going to give them indigestion and migraines from reading. It’s just too tempting right?

[Tseg]

I’ve been wearing my BLNR since 2014 (need to get it serviced soon as it is now gaining >4spd... started at +1). At the club I belong to I never saw another BLNR. This summer I’ve met 5 other guys wearing a BLNR. They each made a point of telling me “nice watch” so I would look at their wrist. I never asked about the details of their acquisition but several brought up the significant price appreciation. They were all oyster bracelet versions. Not sure what to make of it other than 1) BLNR is a hot watch 2) it is accessible.

But if too many start wearing it people will want to move on. The day I see a cabbie wearing it I’ll know the bubble has burst. When cabbies get into the latest bubble, I know it has burst, every time.