Are Rolex sport model prices set to come down?

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by JSolution

What do you mean by “what you’re getting into”?

Routine service cost and durability of the watch in a active environment. One of the reason Rolex is picked (regardless of price) is it’s durability and the way it can take abuse.

[RyanJ]

Let's not kid ourselves here.

Sure people on this forum who know watches may pick a Rolex because it is durable, reliable, and overall a great watch.

However, the vast majority of people buy Rolex because of marketing, hype, value retention, etc. Random people don't walk into a Rolex boutique thinking about horological significance and reliability. They just want something with the Rolex name on the watch so they can impress their friends.

Not saying this is a bad thing as it's great to have a strong brand. We, on this forum, realize these watches are much more than marketing but to most they aren't.

[barters]

Follow the stock market. If that doesn’t crash again I suspect that the Rolex SS situation won’t change a lot.

If it does crash then I’d expect the same to happen to grey market. Who feels like buying a watch for excessively over RRP if your portfolio is down 50% despite the FED being all in.


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[JSolution]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Routine service cost and durability of the watch in a active environment. One of the reason Rolex is picked (regardless of price) is it’s durability and the way it can take abuse.

I’ve been thinking about adding one lately but I’m not overly familiar with the brand. Do they have to be serviced more often than Rolex. And is the average service cost a lot higher Then?

[socalwatchcollector]

Originally Posted by JSolution

I’ve been thinking about adding one lately but I’m not overly familiar with the brand. Do they have to be serviced more often than Rolex. And is the average service cost a lot higher Then?

Depends on what needs done or damage the watch has taken but generally yes, it costs more. I certainly wouldn't golf in one but Rolex I would. Some people may disagree with that but from experience Rolex holds up through a variety of activities while my Patek's and AP's have sustained damage.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

This must be your dealer




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Looks like something Private Walker would carry around

[Rolex_Bob]

I reluctantly pulled the trigger on an SD43 just as the pandemic hit. I was on the waiting list for nearly 12 months but got the call from my AD and purchased the watch. I have been very carefully monitoring the quantities available on Chrono24 for quite some time. The least amount that was available since my interest was back on November 18 last year with 280 pieces. This figure peaked on April 8 with 360 available. Today's number is back at 290. The values are difficult for me to compare because all my settings are in Australian dollars which have fluctuated considerably during this time. It seems as though the pricing peaked in February but have come back 2-3% from their highs. I'll be curious to keep watching the pieces available.
https://www.chrono24.com.au/search/i...&dosearch=true

[milgauss2007]

Impossible than all the future exactly but when I look at the past and that to me informs the future I say prices will go down at some point. first time I was in a Rolex dealer was in 2017 cases were absolutely full they had everything but the Daytona and they were offering me a discount without even asking and that was just a slight downturn in the economy.

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[Robf52]

All in good time.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Looks like something Private Walker would carry around

Probably Asian knock offs

[kaiserphoenix]

Ive actually just received a call for a white ceramic daytona....maybe its true?

[Johnpierpontmorgan]

Buy Datejust then

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by barters

Follow the stock market. If that doesn’t crash again I suspect that the Rolex SS situation won’t change a lot.

If it does crash then I’d expect the same to happen to grey market. Who feels like buying a watch for excessively over RRP if your portfolio is down 50% despite the FED being all in.


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I’m intrigued. Why should there be such a direct corelation?

Rolex is a mass-market aspirational watch, do potential Rolex owners really base their wealth from the stock market, and not salaries?

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

I’m intrigued. Why should there be such a direct corelation?

Rolex is a mass-market aspirational watch, do potential Rolex owners really base their wealth from the stock market, and not salaries?

lol basing any financial decision on your salary alone is a terrible idea. What if you make $100k a month but have $101k in monthly expenses...

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

I’m intrigued. Why should there be such a direct corelation?

Rolex is a mass-market aspirational watch, do potential Rolex owners really base their wealth from the stock market, and not salaries?

The correlation between stock market performance and consumer sentiment has been much studied.

[barters]

Perhaps I’m just considering my personal situation. For me when I have excess funds the first priority are investments. I don’t consider watches investments. Granted certain brands like Rolex do much better than others however even Rolex has a few models that haven’t done so great.

I can tell you on March 23rd I didn’t feel like going out and buying a Rolex. Perhaps a Daytona at list but I wouldn’t have been so bullish to give a grey reseller $25k!


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[VegasMilgauss]

Originally Posted by Mystro

X2. There is a lot of great brands outside of Rolex.

I’d argue in the watch world this is a false statement, there may be a few but not a lot.

To clarify I don’t mean others don’t make a great watch just their branding, name recognition etc ie the BRAND is awful compared to Rolex.. eg Omega, Grand Seiko etc etc

[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by RyanJ

Let's not kid ourselves here.

Sure people on this forum who know watches may pick a Rolex because it is durable, reliable, and overall a great watch.

However, the vast majority of people buy Rolex because of marketing, hype, value retention, etc. Random people don't walk into a Rolex boutique thinking about horological significance and reliability. They just want something with the Rolex name on the watch so they can impress their friends.

Not saying this is a bad thing as it's great to have a strong brand. We, on this forum, realize these watches are much more than marketing but to most they aren't.

hmm I don't understand this kind of crowd in terms of behavior.

if impressing your friends with your watch is your only objective out of a watch purchase, why shell out $15-20k on a watch (grey prices). That's a hefty price to pay to impress people for the wrong reasons.

Just get a cheap Chinese fake Rolex for $500 and it will do the job. Most people on a street won't be able to tell the difference between a real Rolex vs a decent fake one anyways.

[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by barters

Perhaps I’m just considering my personal situation. For me when I have excess funds the first priority are investments. I don’t consider watches investments. Granted certain brands like Rolex do much better than others however even Rolex has a few models that haven’t done so great.

I can tell you on March 23rd I didn’t feel like going out and buying a Rolex. Perhaps a Daytona at list but I wouldn’t have been so bullish to give a grey reseller $25k!


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watches are not investments. I think of desirable Rolex watches (Daytona, GMT) as something I can enjoy, like a jewelry, without having to take a bath if I decide to sell in future.

I never understood people that chase certain Rolex, Patek, etc watches as "investments". Unless you are a grey dealer with proven network / reputation, all this watch trading / flipping ain't worth the hassle and headache.

There is a much less painful way to make a buck. just buy some shares of AMZN on a dip...

[Onikage]

Originally Posted by Posh Gentleman

hmm I don't understand this kind of crowd in terms of behavior.

if impressing your friends with your watch is your only objective out of a watch purchase, why shell out $15-20k on a watch (grey prices). That's a hefty price to pay to impress people for the wrong reasons.

Just get a cheap Chinese fake Rolex for $500 and it will do the job. Most people on a street won't be able to tell the difference between a real Rolex vs a decent fake one anyways.

Friends on TRF will know instantly, tell you so and judge you accordingly.

[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by Onikage

Friends on TRF will know instantly, tell you so and judge you accordingly.

well, most people are not watch enthusiasts, and most won't bother to inspect your watch closely to verify if it is a fake or real Rolex.

If impressing random Joe's or some girls at a bar is your priority, you shouldn't be buying a SS Rolex. You should be buying a Yellow / Rose Gold Hublot or something.

[dkast85]

only if people suddenly stop wanting them.

[opaline460]

As long as ppl willing to pay over retail then No!

[barters]

We are seeing bubbles forming in all kinds of asset classes, including alternative ones such as collectibles e.g watches, vintage cars etc.

This all has been driven by low interest rates of central banks, which are lower in real terms due to added money supply. This has disproportionally benefitted the 1% who buy a certain class of things.

The Fed says there has been little inflation. I’m not sure they would say the same if they changed the basket of goods and services to include things that the richest in society are competing for. Auction prices for in fashion things are not decreasing.

Due to Covid lockdown the Fed & other CBs have massively increased M2. That money will flow somewhere. In my opinion this will continue to inflate asset prices.

It will not continue indefinitely. There will either be an ugly deleveraging or “Robin Hood” tax regime changes to force redistribution.

In other words I wouldn’t want to be a grey dealer holding a lot of stock of production watches they paid MSRP for. At this stage I would start destocking before the fire sale starts.


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[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by barters

We are seeing bubbles forming in all kinds of asset classes, including alternative ones such as collectibles e.g watches, vintage cars etc.

This all has been driven by low interest rates of central banks, which are lower in real terms due to added money supply. This has disproportionally benefitted the 1% who buy a certain class of things.

The Fed says there has been little inflation. I’m not sure they would say the same if they changed the basket of goods and services to include things that the richest in society are competing for. Auction prices for in fashion things are not decreasing.

Due to Covid lockdown the Fed & other CBs have massively increased M2. That money will flow somewhere. In my opinion this will continue to inflate asset prices.

It will not continue indefinitely. There will either be an ugly deleveraging or “Robin Hood” tax regime changes to force redistribution.

In other words I wouldn’t want to be a grey dealer holding a lot of stock of production watches they paid MSRP for. At this stage I would start destocking before the fire sale starts.


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Fed QE means asset inflation in stocks, bonds, and real estate. especially so for growth / quality stocks.

The rich get richer with QE since top 5% of wealthy own the vast majority of stocks.

I increased my exposure to growth stocks, as soon as QE was announced. I already owned large positions in AMZN, MSFT, etc but bought a lot more with my cash reserve. These will keep ripping for years.

As for Rolex grey prices - Fed action or stock market for that matter won't have much impact. You are over thinking it. The vast majority of Rolex owners or prospective owners are not wealthy by any means. You think a $10-15k purchase is a symbol of wealth? That's cheaper than a Honda Civic, and any Joe on street can get a Rolex, if he truly wishes. (going into debt, or blowing your savings, etc)

Rolex secondary pricing is influenced by demand (social media, rappers, etc) and supply. That's all there is to it.

[Etschell]

Idk but if i could sell out of ss and into pm i would.

[barters]

Look at the market since 2008 & tell me there’s no correlation. Rolex as well as a few other brands are being looked at as an alternative asset class. It’s a bubble.


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[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by barters

Look at the market since 2008 & tell me there’s no correlation. Rolex as well as a few other brands are being looked at as an alternative asset class. It’s a bubble.


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There is bubble in select Rolex models, due to increase in demand. This is not a result of FED QE or stock market.

This is result of social media, rappers, social influencers, etc pumping on these select models.

Rolex day date, date just, etc haven't gone up in value in grey market. yet these are rolex. how do you explain that?

Rolex SS watches are NOT alternative asset class investments. You think rich people buy up these $10k watches as store of value, as a hedge against inflation? LOL.

Rich people buy real estate, tons of stocks, high end art pieces, etc.

[barters]

People think that SS Rolex watches are a store of wealth. They think it’s effectively free to own these watches ( vs cash in a bank).


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[DG123]

Originally Posted by barters

People think that SS Rolex watches are a store of wealth. They think it’s effectively free to own these watches ( vs cash in a bank).


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That mindset is from those who want to buy from an AD at MSRP.