Am I the only one who actually kind of likes this market?

[LA_LEC]

Rolex should increase MSRP to a more realistic amount - I say double it.

[Mystro]

Rolex is moving in a different direction with the brand and could be accelerating this move by taking advantage of the current market of the last few years. Too much is changing with Rolex besides simple “supply and demand” explanations. I don’t think it’s a matter of enjoying the market but adapting and modifying how you move in it. These are “Luxury Goods” and money makes the industry go round so bring money if you want to play the game.

[992Guy]

Originally Posted by Bladeshot

I feel for the Rolex collectors just starting or for someone only wanting a single piece…. I was able to get started when prices were $3k for an explorer or a sub. I always liked watches. As I aged and had the means to purchase, I did. Availability was never an issue.

Do I like the situation? Not particularly. But it does not impact my collection or trades. I recognize how fortunate I am, to be able to enjoy some nice watches.
As it does, hopefully in the future some newly minted enthusiasts and collectors will get what they want.

Cheers.

There was also a time in the 80’s when you could buy a Ferrari for $35k…not any more. Times change and people need to adapt or accept the fact time has passed them by.

[douglasf13]

No. It’s killed the brand for me.

[Glenmorangie77]

Originally Posted by LA_LEC

Rolex should increase MSRP to a more realistic amount - I say double it.

Rolex isn't interested in guessing what the retail price should change to on a year-to-year basis. There certainly may come a day when their current MSRP is actually higher than people want to pay, and the last thing a high-end retailer wants to do is have to discount their merchandise to move it out of the store.

[2001jesper]

Don't see anything positive about waiting for a watch you have never seen or tired. Equally, people buying watches they don't want, with the expectation that they might be allowed to spend 10k on something else

There is a certain experience in being able to try, feel and take your time in ensuring that you get the piece that is just right for you - Thats how it should be imo

If there is anything the current marked has done for me, then its nudging me towards Omega instead ... and I am exciting to experience the brand

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

But the watch I've been trying to get for my brother's 40th (in 10 days) probably isn't going to happen despite me working with 4 different ADs in 4 different cities.

It brings me great joy you can't get the watch you want.

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

It brings me great joy you can't get the watch you want.

Spoken like a true watch enthusiast!

[garyk]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

I'm sure that sounds a bit crazy, but as I read the dozen daily "where are all the watches?" / "is it possible to bribe an AD?" / "will the hype ever subside?" posts on here, reddit, and pretty much any place which discusses Rolex, I have tried to imagine the world becoming what all these people seem to be wishing for. One where you walk into any AD and you walk out with whatever watch you want. That doesn't actually sound that great to me. It feels like it would take away some of the fun of the game.

This of course presumes you can, eventually, get some watches, with some patience. Which has been my experience over the last year. The AD came through for me for an anniversary and pulled off 2 special orders. But the watch I've been trying to get for my brother's 40th (in 10 days) probably isn't going to happen despite me working with 4 different ADs in 4 different cities. On the one hand, that sucks. On the other hand, I'll get it eventually, and when I do, I think it'll have more meaning to both me and to him given the effort it took to acquire.

Do any of you see this silver lining as well or am I just losing it? ;)

Haha, I think you are a little crazy! I worked for 3 years for my latest birthday present for myself and failed. I do think part of the fix for Rolex is higher pricing and I’m sure they are working on it. Thanks for yet another interesting post pal!!

[HiBoost]

I've never been accused of being an optimist, so we can probably rule out "looking for the bright side" as an explanation for my feelings. I think a combination of these two comments probably best explains the real situation

Originally Posted by kpeco

Frankly, the fact that you can't actually buy most of these watches is probably a good thing. It's a bit of a "save me from myself" type of situation.

Originally Posted by garyk

Haha, I think you are a little crazy!

[Bladeshot]

Originally Posted by 992Guy

There was also a time in the 80’s when you could buy a Ferrari for $35k…not any more. Times change and people need to adapt or accept the fact time has passed them by.

Agreed.

And the 338 is one I hope to have someday.

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by 992Guy

There was also a time in the 80’s when you could buy a Ferrari for $35k…not any more. Times change and people need to adapt or accept the fact time has passed them by.

It was more like $45,000 for a 308 in 1980, which, adjusting for inflation, isn't all that much cheaper than the current low end model, the Portofino.

The problem is that Rolex isn't the "Ferrari." It's more of the "Porsche" to AP/Patek's "Ferrari:" durable and tool'ish, but not nearly as romantic or exclusive.

[inadeje]

I largely have all of the watches I wish to have in my collection at this time. I recently traded numerous pieces to consolidate back in feb 2020 for one watch. I’m happy that my predominantly Rolex collection is becoming more desirable and upmarket.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

It was more like $45,000 for a 308 in 1980, which, adjusting for inflation, isn't all that much cheaper than the current low end model, the Portofino.

The problem is that Rolex isn't the "Ferrari." It's more of the "Porsche" to AP/Patek's "Ferrari:" durable and tool'ish, but not nearly as romantic or exclusive.

I’d even go as far as saying rolex is more like the Lexus/Mercedes lol


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[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

I like that username, you a dev?

But yes, you have it straight :) He's turning 40, not 4. If the gift isn't available on his exact birthday he's not going to go to his room and pout, or tear the head off his sister's doll. If (when) this takes 6 months to pull off and requires me driving around to every dealer in the region then, yes, I would say that adds an extra element of it being special that he will reflect on forever. If I bought him a ___ brand, which can be bought at every AD in the world, he may still love the watch. But for sure it would lack the additional dimension of the giver putting in far more effort than simply pulling a CC out of the wallet and swiping.

You have a lot of free time on your hands hunting down a basic sub …


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[Tavli3]

I have no problem with this market if Rolex would make equally hard for the Greys to get watches as it is for us.


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[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

You have a lot of free time on your hands hunting down a basic sub …


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I appreciate a good non-sequitur as much as the next guy, but I never mentioned the reference I was looking for, nor is it a Sub, nor does it matter.

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[Jack T]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

I don't think that is the case. To me, it is analogous to a new Playstation coming out. There is a finite quantity produced, and way more people who want them, so every store is sold out. Yet at any moment you can get on ebay and find them at greatly inflated prices. When people see 25 Playstation listings, or 25 Daytonas on gray sites, they equate this with there being "plenty of supply" but I completely disagree. Those prices are driven so high as to reduce the sale of the very limited quantity to a trickle. They do sell still, but 99.9% of the potential market is out of the game price-wise.

I don't see how it is any different with Rolex. The idea that there are enough Subs/GMTs/Daytonas produced for everybody who wants one, but they are simply sitting at grays, seems completely wrong. When Sony ramps up production and initial demand dies down, every Walmart once again has them and nobody is wasting their time trying to flip on ebay. The "problem" with the Rolex game is that Rolex won't up production, and the internet keeps the demand from dying down so we're locked in the "Playstation release day" phase indefinitely.

Ok, I buy your analogy, I should have been more clear. If the numbers cited here are to be believed, Rolex production in 2020 went down 20% or so from 2019, roughly 140,000 watches. By now they should be close to 2019 levels, say they’re down 40,000 watches from 2019; still up 100,000 over 2020.

The only explanation for the soaring prices in the grey market is the surging, skyrocketing demand, far above 2019 levels. And the AD’s are parceling out the few they supposedly have, the grey’s are flush with product at 60% to 150% over MSRP. That shift in available product can not, in my opinion be the result only of individual flippers.

Personally, I’m not out of sorts; I have what I want and a great relationship with my AD. The only real obstacle for me isn’t availability, it affordability!

[992Guy]

Originally Posted by LA_LEC

Rolex should increase MSRP to a more realistic amount - I say double it.

What, isn’t this what has already happened with the gray market.

If this idea is implemented by Rolex people will then wish for the gray market where at least they don’t pay tax on twice the current MSRP.

[Ichiran]

I don't care about secondary price and hence I prefer the previous market where I can walk into my AD to get most Nautilus, Royal Oak and Rolex from their store either immediately or with limited wait times.

I don't mind if their values drop 30% upon leaving the store. I just want my watches.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I don't care about secondary price and hence I prefer the previous market where I can walk into my AD to get most Nautilus, Royal Oak and Rolex from their store either immediately or with limited wait times.

I don't mind if their values drop 30% upon leaving the store. I just want my watches.

Since you only want your watches with no regard for their value after, you would have no problems with the current market at all since anything and everything you want is available on the grey market.


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[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by Jack T

The only explanation for the soaring prices in the grey market is the surging, skyrocketing demand, far above 2019 levels. And the AD’s are parceling out the few they supposedly have, the grey’s are flush with product at 60% to 150% over MSRP. That shift in available product can not, in my opinion be the result only of individual flippers.

I think you are right, no disagreement there. It does "feel" like the flow is steady enough that it has to be more of a coordinated operation. That said, I've seen posts even on here about people who have "a friend" that gets one watch after another from an AD and flips them all. So there is likely a level in between the "AD selling large quantities to gray" and the "individual selling one watch to gray" scenarios.


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[kilyung]

I find it hard to get overly excited about availability or lack thereof. I’ll get it when I get it.

[Dr.Smellody]

It is all funny to me.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by teck21

Since you only want your watches with no regard for their value after, you would have no problems with the current market at all since anything and everything you want is available on the grey market.

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I want my name on the paper. I like my watches brand new without anyone's DNA on them. And it doesn't make sense for me to pay 2x to 4x for a Nautilus whereas in an alternate universe I can get it for MSRP less discount from AD. I don't buy to sell at profit and my cost is just MSRP less discount in that preferred universe of mine.

[Snerks]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I want my name on the paper. I like my watches brand new without anyone's DNA on them.

so buy BNIB - lots still have stickers on them even

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Snerks

so buy BNIB - lots still have stickers on them even

Very much prefer to deal directly with AD for piece of mind. Also doesn't make sense for me to pay 2x to 4x for a Nautilus whereas in an alternate universe I can get it for MSRP less discount from AD. I don't buy to sell at profit and my cost is just MSRP less discount in that universe the way I prefer it to be.

[pepe01]

It seem everybody here. Don't care about buying experience at AD.
Everybody care about "Watch" or "Investment"


I say this because i never buy expensive watch.
Next year is my 20th anniversary, i want to buy Explorer 2021 to for her because she would like to replace her 20years Tag Heuer Link which use everyday.

When buying a gift for anniversay, I imagine that we have a good dress walk into the beautiful AD, select and try watch and choose "Explorer I". She wear it at the AD and we come back home with a good memory with a good brand watch Rolex.

But in fact with this Rolex situation, i have 3 choices:
1. Buy from gray market at somewhere (Yes, we can get "Watch" but not buying experience with a watch to remember)
2. Play game of AD to buy no need watch (I don't use watch for around 10 years, i see time from my mobile phone)
3. Forget about Rolex and buy her other gifts.

Thank you.

[Nav01L]

We’ve been stuck in this end of bull run state for a while and given the crippling amount of public debt most major western markets are burdened by, it’s not like interest is going to put a halt to it until little by little, inflation will eat away at it. We’re not going to see a correction all at once, but this awkward state will not stay the way it is either. Until then, I actually don’t mind it too much.

[AK797]

The market is what it is, there will always be watches you can't or don't want to afford or can't find easily, Rolexes at retail are beyond the reach of the vast majority of the gen pop, gold Rolexes are beyond most SS buyers, and gold Pateks beyond those guys, and on and on it goes. It just so happens the market for SS Rolexes has changed hugely in the last few years but this is the new normal for those entering the market now, just as all the other barrier price points of various watches and brands have been all this time.