15500 Blue listed for $123k

[eplsoccer7]

15500 was a 3 year production run correct? Some of the dials weren’t even launched in 2019. White dial for example had only been produced for 2 years. If AP makes 40k watches a year, safe to assume max 10k of those are 15500 and for 3 years you’re looking at 30k watches of all 4 dial variations. So maybe the white dial has a production run of 7-8k pieces tops? 8k pieces during a pandemic seems really high. These are all estimates and who knows what the pandemic truly did to production. But if you look at the supply, there aren’t a ton made. Not saying that justifies the price, but just worth a thought.


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[GreenLantern]

You're talking as if the market actually makes sense these days.

The watch market operates like the NFT market right now.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

You're talking as if the market actually makes sense these days.

The watch market operates like the NFT market right now.

I bet AP wished it did! Imagine AP getting a cut everything the watch transacted again on the secondary market!

[DonLee]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

You're talking as if the market actually makes sense these days.

The watch market operates like the NFT market right now.

Funny how today i saw a Sotheby's auction for Gerald Genta watch design sketch NFTs...

[whiterabbit66]

Originally Posted by eplsoccer7

15500 was a 3 year production run correct? Some of the dials weren’t even launched in 2019. White dial for example had only been produced for 2 years. If AP makes 40k watches a year, safe to assume max 10k of those are 15500 and for 3 years you’re looking at 30k watches of all 4 dial variations. So maybe the white dial has a production run of 7-8k pieces tops? 8k pieces during a pandemic seems really high. These are all estimates and who knows what the pandemic truly did to production. But if you look at the supply, there aren’t a ton made. Not saying that justifies the price, but just worth a thought.

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I would think 15500 production is more like 4k-5k a year of all base stainless models. More like 3k-4k total white dial 15500 in its two year run.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

I bet AP wished it did! Imagine AP getting a cut everything the watch transacted again on the secondary market!

I was referring to the absurdity and idiocy in the NFT market.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by DonLee

Funny how today i saw a Sotheby's auction for Gerald Genta watch design sketch NFTs...

[xjeeunitx]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

You're talking as if the market actually makes sense these days.

The watch market operates like the NFT market right now.

Except watches are actual tangible goods that can be easily bought and sold. Real estate? Cars? Try selling those within a few minutes time. This is the new norm. Just because you don't understand the concept of current secondary watch industry... doesn't mean it is nonsense. Quit hatin bro. To reiterate one more time, folks are buying these watches at the noted prices. If you won't then don't. No one cares. To each, their own.

[gregouille]

Originally Posted by xjeeunitx

Except watches are actual tangible goods that can be easily bought and sold. Real estate? Cars? Try selling those within a few minutes time. This is the new norm. Just because you don't understand the concept of current secondary watch industry... doesn't mean it is nonsense. Quit hatin bro. To reiterate one more time, folks are buying these watches at the noted prices. If you won't then don't. No one cares. To each, their own.

Loving this

[RoscoPico]

It's nuckin futs to think people pay so much over retail, but they do. Not sure how much the list prices actually relate to the sales prices, but you know they can't be that far off.

I really do wonder just how many watches are being bought by hedgers/investors vs actual collectors. And if the prices ever come back down to earth; sad in the meantime

[DonLee]

Originally Posted by RoscoPico

It's nuckin futs to think people pay so much over retail, but they do. Not sure how much the list prices actually relate to the sales prices, but you know they can't be that far off.

I really do wonder just how many watches are being bought by hedgers/investors vs actual collectors. And if the prices ever come back down to earth; sad in the meantime

Quite happy to have one of these. Definitely not selling mine. But I do want to be more careful with it now.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by RoscoPico

It's nuckin futs to think people pay so much over retail, but they do. Not sure how much the list prices actually relate to the sales prices, but you know they can't be that far off.

I really do wonder just how many watches are being bought by hedgers/investors vs actual collectors. And if the prices ever come back down to earth; sad in the meantime

There are dumb impatient people out there. I have a friend who is one of them . He wanted me to help him get a watch and I could get it at retail but he had to wait 3 months. He was so impatient he paid 50% over at a boutique to get it now in one week instead. This wasn't a brand that sells for over list.

So imagine if someone who is willing to pay double he had to for an undesirable watch, imagine these people who pay 2-3x for super desirable watches.

Impatience just makes people do dumb stuff. But hell, if they can afford it......

[GreenLantern]

There are so many better watches to buy in the 125,000 range.

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

There are so many better watches to buy in the 125,000 range.

Agree but we started saying that at 25k, 50k, 75k, 100k and now 125k. At what point is it just not?

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Agree but we started saying that at 25k, 50k, 75k, 100k and now 125k. At what point is it just not?

When people treat watches like NFTs then obviously pricing is no longer correlated to reality and reason.

[RoscoPico]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

When people treat watches like NFTs then obviously pricing is no longer correlated to reality and reason.

Yep nothing remotely correlated to reality and reason. I am continually baffled that prices keep rising. I was looking at gray prices on white dial RO's a few months back and they were starting at 30k. Now it's closer to 50k. That is a nonsensical rise.
I very much regret selling my 15400 white dial years back. I now want to replace that but don't see it happening.
That's the hobby though, some of us do a little bit of vacillating and, at times, rue our decisions.

[GreenLantern]

I remember when I didn't have to stress out if a watch got damaged/lost/stolen (thankfully never happened to me) because my insurance would cover and I could eventually (in a short to medium timeframe) replace it with an identical piece.

Now? Now it's impossible. Sure, I'll have the cash from the insurance, but I can't do anything with it.

Time to start wearing Longines.

[dh1]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

There are so many better watches to buy in the 125,000 range.

But watches aren't fungible. There is something about having a specific brand or model that doesn't come down to specifications or complications or even the original MSRP.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by dh1

But watches aren't fungible. There is something about having a specific brand or model that doesn't come down to specifications or complications or even the original MSRP.

So they're... Non-Fungible Tokens then?

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by dh1

But watches aren't fungible. There is something about having a specific brand or model that doesn't come down to specifications or complications or even the original MSRP.

Also, let's be clear here... With the major uptick in social media posts about watches as "great investments", a lot of people are buying them simply as investments, not as watches to wear and enjoy like the rest of us, here, have been doing for decades.

So, if AP is the over-hyped brand, then obviously that'll be what people flock to.

[xjeeunitx]

We have a new type of watch enthusiasts.... the one that loves horology for what it is as well as love making money. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Don't hate brooooo. It's gonna be okay. =)

[xjeeunitx]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Also, let's be clear here... With the major uptick in social media posts about watches as "great investments", a lot of people are buying them simply as investments, not as watches to wear and enjoy like the rest of us, here, have been doing for decades.

So, if AP is the over-hyped brand, then obviously that'll be what people flock to.

Not just Rolex but other luxury goods and brands. Do you know how much a Hermes Birkin bag is on the secondary market? Do you know how much a PS5 is? It's simple supply an demand bud. This concept of supply and demand didn't start because of IG. It was always like this. Of course, IG didn't help with the situation though. =)

[J.T.]

What blows my mind more than AP prices is Nike, $300-5000 for Nike shoes made in a sweat shop that aren't anything special

[Champagnepapi]

Perhaps this is all a big conspiracy…. Apple and Samsung buying up all the high end watches, so everyone else has to buy their smart watches


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[911AP]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Also, let's be clear here... With the major uptick in social media posts about watches as "great investments", a lot of people are buying them simply as investments, not as watches to wear and enjoy like the rest of us, here, have been doing for decades.

So, if AP is the over-hyped brand, then obviously that'll be what people flock to.

Now all the dealers are calling 2022 the year of AP. Which you know is going to make everyone's watches now go even higher.....

https://www.watchuseek.com/threads/f...ealed.5377813/ check out what Takuya is asking for the 15202 brand new 2021. Damn...I got offered a bad deal at 150k for my 2020 . This will only push the 15500 blue even higher.

[infinity0001]

Ap!

[redrasky]

Originally Posted by gregouille

I just sold (last week) also a 15400st white dial for 55kusd in 48h…

I had a 15400st with black dial that I sold in 2017 for 12k usd. I stopped paying attention to watches shortly thereafter; and was shocked to see the demand when I recently began poking around various listings.

When did things get so crazy? I loved the watch and am kicking myself for what could have been a big windfall instead of a small loss, but I’m intrigued as to when and why things got to the point that they’re at.

[karasus]

Originally Posted by redrasky

I had a 15400st with black dial that I sold in 2017 for 12k usd. I stopped paying attention to watches shortly thereafter; and was shocked to see the demand when I recently began poking around various listings.

When did things get so crazy? I loved the watch and am kicking myself for what could have been a big windfall instead of a small loss, but I’m intrigued as to when and why things got to the point that they’re at.

I remember buying my 15400ST(grey) and 15300ST(blue) early 2018.

I paid 17k for the 15400st and 16k for the 15300ST blue.

Things started going a bit crazy end 2019, the 15400st was going up to 20k+ and the 15300ST went 30k+.

2 years later I think the 15400st is 60k and 15300st is 70k.

Yes the theoretical value gain is great, but I also know that if I sell today I'm never going to be able to buy them back at that price.

I've made more money since 2017 and had some decent income increases since then but no way has it kept up with watch prices. Today a rolex steel sub goes for as much as a Patek annual calendar in 2017.

Prices aren't coming down with watch companies cutting supply, social media pushing visibility of the brands, and the general culture trends favouring the growth of hard asset status symbols.

Watches used to be a relatively esoteric hobby for a few enthusiast who like doing research on pretty obscure things like military timekeeping, micro mechanics, design etc.. and just now its going mainstream. If things keep going like this, I wouldn't be surprised if we see steel ROs at 300k, PP 5711 steel at 500k, and 100k steel rolex hulks in a few years time.

The more I think about it the more it makes some sense. Nobody needed a massive house in the 2000s but prized status mansions were a thing in the 90s-2000s. Super/hyper cars, wine, whiskey, rum, trading cards and art also followed this trend. In the 2010s it was the ownership of superyachts that was in vogue. Now it is watches.

Houses, cars and yachts total cost of ownership is pretty high and have high recurring costs. Only trading cards, whiskey/rum, art and watches have relatively low to 0 maintenance costs. Out of these four only watches can be used and retain 90%+ of its resale market value. Watches also have the most liquid market out of these relatively illiquid assets. Watches end up being the smart "flex" asset from a financial point of view.

[mquarter]

Originally Posted by karasus

I remember buying my 15400ST(grey) and 15300ST(blue) early 2018.

I paid 17k for the 15400st and 16k for the 15300ST blue.

Things started going a bit crazy end 2019, the 15400st was going up to 20k+ and the 15300ST went 30k+.

2 years later I think the 15400st is 60k and 15300st is 70k.

Yes the theoretical value gain is great, but I also know that if I sell today I'm never going to be able to buy them back at that price.

I've made more money since 2017 and had some decent income increases since then but no way has it kept up with watch prices. Today a rolex steel sub goes for as much as a Patek annual calendar in 2017.

Prices aren't coming down with watch companies cutting supply, social media pushing visibility of the brands, and the general culture trends favouring the growth of hard asset status symbols.

Watches used to be a relatively esoteric hobby for a few enthusiast who like doing research on pretty obscure things like military timekeeping, micro mechanics, design etc.. and just now its going mainstream. If things keep going like this, I wouldn't be surprised if we see steel ROs at 300k, PP 5711 steel at 500k, and 100k steel rolex hulks in a few years time.

The more I think about it the more it makes some sense. Nobody needed a massive house in the 2000s but prized status mansions were a thing in the 90s-2000s. Super/hyper cars, wine, whiskey, rum, trading cards and art also followed this trend. In the 2010s it was the ownership of superyachts that was in vogue. Now it is watches.

Houses, cars and yachts total cost of ownership is pretty high and have high recurring costs. Only trading cards, whiskey/rum, art and watches have relatively low to 0 maintenance costs. Out of these four only watches can be used and retain 90%+ of its resale market value. Watches also have the most liquid market out of these relatively illiquid assets. Watches end up being the smart "flex" asset from a financial point of view.

The reality in your post hits hard, man.

[GreenLantern]

Doesn't change the fact that the whole thing is one big joke these days.