Huge % increase in 116500 availability on Chrono

[Dougiebaby]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Is this fake news, wishful thinking, or another anti-Daytona thread??

There are 71 white SS Daytonas on C24 in the USA right now. Those numbers are about spot on as they were in Dec 2021. There is no change I have seen other than they are higher $$$ and I have been following white SS Daytona’s the last 12 months. There was 102 in the USA in October of 2021.

Pretty clear in the USA. Notice the basic filtering including all models even ones without a full set. That’s 71 total.

SUBTRACT FROM THIS...

There are many "ghost listings" in there. What is a "ghost listing?" Watch dealers will list a watch even though they do not possess it waiting for a client to bite. Then they will go out and try to source one for the sale.

[dommasters]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Is this fake news, wishful thinking, or another anti-Daytona thread??

None of those. I have an old Daytona and have been following the recent rapid increase in the 116500. However my figure of 500+ was without filters so I will certainly turn them on. Tempted to sell my vintage one as I prefer the look of the ceramic and it looks sturdier.

[ronricks]

Half of those listings don't even have the watch in their possession they are ghost listings who will source the watch after the fact.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Langnam

Weird. I just wear my Daytona.


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I know right

[espanol]

Originally Posted by dommasters

I guess it has to be either that or an increase in supply from Rolex (unlikely?).
Would be wonderful to see prices cool off a little.

The two aren’t mutually exclusive. Probably a mix of both.

[boogiebot]

Originally Posted by Cauhauna

you've failed to consider social media influencer culture, crypto, NFTs, and swiss sports watches being considered as a store of value. These are the real drivers behind the price increases, imo.


Food for thought with regards to that store of value comment:
$1M in 100s weighs 22 pounds, and is rather physically large
$1M in 116500 white dials weighs ~7 pounds, and with watch/card only, they could all (easily) fit in a shoe box

If I was in organized crime, i'd most certainly be buying watches en masse as a store of value. a single patek 5711 is what... 150k? 200k?

Crazy times we live in right?


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[nachopc]

Originally Posted by chet

Anyone using watches as a store of value is both foolish and idiotic and, IMO, will be in for a rude awakening if and when they try to liquidate. The watch "market" isn't a market--for one, there aren't any published bids to hit. If you want to sell, you can list your watches and hope someone takes the offer or you can sell for a discount to retail price to an AD or grey dealer. The above obviously doesn't apply to a collector selling a Daytona or 5711.

Prices have gone up quickly and can go down a lot faster than they went up. Volatility isn't a one way street and correlations increase in a down market.

The fact that someone is applying "store of value" to watches indicates there is rampant speculation and as I said elsewhere, be fearful when others are greedy.

No if you buy retail, do you ?


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[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by boogiebot

Crazy times we live in right?


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No kidding.

Further to this, if I were literally trapped in Thailand right now without access to credit cards or hard currency, I'd want a Rolex on the wrist to be able to pawn off to get quick access to hard currency.

[Time Out]

All I know is I reallllllyyyyyy hope my grand kids look on chrono 24 before they take my Rolex collection to the pawn shop long after I'm gone.

[espanol]

Originally Posted by Cauhauna

you've failed to consider social media influencer culture, crypto, NFTs, and swiss sports watches being considered as a store of value. These are the real drivers behind the price increases, imo.


Food for thought with regards to that store of value comment:
$1M in 100s weighs 22 pounds, and is rather physically large
$1M in 116500 white dials weighs ~7 pounds, and with watch/card only, they could all (easily) fit in a shoe box

If I was in organized crime, i'd most certainly be buying watches en masse as a store of value. a single patek 5711 is what... 150k? 200k?

Not much into the $$ talk, but to take this a step further, watches could be seen as a great store of value to move $€£¥ around.

If I go to the airport with $11k of gold bars, I get stopped.

If I go to the airport with a 5711, nothing happens. Now that 150-200k can move across the waters with absolute ease. Illegal absolutely, but I’m sure people are doing it.

[chet]

Originally Posted by nachopc

No if you buy retail, do you ?


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To answer your question, I have only purchased at MSRP. You're missing the point, however. I am referring to speculators and short term purchasers who are trying to justify watches as an asset class and are purchasing in the grey market. For me, I own a couple of Daytonas and consider them jewelry. I find those who are speculating in the watch market naive and fear they will be stuck holding beautiful watches which are selling for far less than they paid.

[boogiebot]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

No kidding.

Further to this, if I were literally trapped in Thailand right now without access to credit cards or hard currency, I'd want a Rolex on the wrist to be able to pawn off to get quick access to hard currency.

Forgive my ignorance, what’s going on in Thailand ?


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[Fedpete]

The value of these watches is unlikely to go down in my opinion. The US is headed toward recession, Fed hiking rates, and inflation is certainly not transitory and instead here to stay.

The Fed basically has no way out—it either destroys the equities market or it lets inflation run rampant.

Rolex will be leveraged as a hedge against inflation and the loss of value in the US dollar. Expect PM Rolex to fly off the shelves as smart money hides cash into various asset classes.

Buckle up for Weimar 2.0.


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[Driver8]

I'm not going to predict what prices are going to do, but all I will say is that once again a few people seem to struggle with the concept that things change over time, and that nothing stays the same forever.

Just because we're in this stratospheric price-increase phase now, doesn't remotely mean that it will be like this forever. The fact it wasn't like this 10, or even 5, years ago shows that things changed from that state to the one we're in now. So it's somewhat naive to believe that things are now fixed and won't change again (up or down!).

Would anyone 10 years ago have predicted the state of things now? No, of course not. Did the Swiss mechanical watch industry predict the quartz crisis that sent hundreds of brands to the wall? Apparently not. Likewise no-one, economist or otherwise, would sensibly predict how things will be in another 5 or 10 years time. All I think we can safely say is that the situation will be "different"... because there are too many external factors and history tells us that nothing stays the same forever.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by boogiebot

Forgive my ignorance, what’s going on in Thailand ?


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Not unique to Thailand, but Thailand is a popular destination of a certain country that country is getting sanctioned out the wazoo. So mastercard/visa/ATM to get local current or USD is a problem. Plus no one wants to exchange any home currency you have to local currency, so beyond the geopolitical issues, I mean wow, sure would be handy to give a Daytona to a dealer to list on C24 to get some immediate liquidity!!!

[dtwer]

Well one or two people forking over $60K for a Daytona, maybe. Hundreds of people buying them at that price? I just don't buy that narrative.

At that price we are not talking 20%, 30% markup; it's > 300% markup. People who can throw that kind of money on a watch are mostly connected well enough to get it from the AD.

After being on Chrono24 a while, I come to realize it's a place for some sellers to project their wishful thinking. People posting brands that are readily available like IWC or Omega above MSRP, for example. Total nonsense.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

The value of these watches is unlikely to go down in my opinion. The US is headed toward recession, Fed hiking rates, and inflation is certainly not transitory and instead here to stay.

The Fed basically has no way out—it either destroys the equities market or it lets inflation run rampant.

Rolex will be leveraged as a hedge against inflation and the loss of value in the US dollar. Expect PM Rolex to fly off the shelves as smart money hides cash into various asset classes.

Buckle up for Weimar 2.0.


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So I've gone through a bit of a mental excerise with myself. If let's say I think far market for a Daytona is only 40k (below current market) but inflation is 20%, do I sell or hold? I think actually I hold even though I think the market is bonkers nonsense, but inflation will catch up to the market today. If I wanted to replace the watch in 5 years, even MSRP will catch up on inflation alone. So instead I'd need an even more bonkers price of say 100 or 150k to not regret selling it from a rapid inflation situation.

To a stretch, I think you could say this is what happened to AP RO between 30k-60k. The price today was just so negligible pre-inflation that anyone not in a home currency of USD or CHF was better just to buy it today - not even as a store of value, but just because it would be so much more expensive in home currency terms post inflation in a year.

Like Milton Friedman said in his late years, the best move by a consumer against high inflation is to spend it all today.

[DoricSpiker]

Hey OP, I can tell you are an intelligent guy so I have an idea. You say there is 554 available. So why don’t you use this insider information, offer about 10-15k less than the dealer wants, buy it because he agrees with you there is 553 others available to you, and then you have completed the sale of the century?
Let me now how you get on and btw over here in the UK, MI6 are recruiting. Just a career idea for you.


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[Mrngrz46]

Always same story fox and grapes.

We are so complex machine but we average respond in the same way…

Fox and grapes
Fox and grapes

[Mrngrz46]

Fox and grapes

[JRell]

Tides are turning, many new first time incomings and the greys are over-flooded with watches. 2022 just might be the year of buying Rolexes at retail.

[Xerxes77]

On Rolex maybe will be a correction but not too significant but on AP and PP it’s very hard to see this….. AP don’t have only his Boutiques where all the piece are sold after many approves …. 10 years ago AP have many AD who give discount and also sell how they want….AP now it’s hard to get even for old customer…..
PP hard to impossible to get…
Rolex maybe a correction but not to hot pieces like Daytona, Pepsi, blue SkyDweller….
Btw in Germany last week one grey dealer told me that he pays 80-85k for a blue AP 15500 and also he told me the demand are more then ever specially for Rolex follow by PP and AP

[smallcollector]

People on here make me laugh.

You guys who say times can't go back to how they used to be.....these are really ignorant statements. Watches are a store of value, and prices / demand will stay this high indefinitely? LOL.

Wars can get (much) worse, recessions can get ugly, unknown risks can come and go - - Read some market / economic history books - the future is a great unknown - and times can definitely get much harder than you've ever seen. Risk happens fast.

[smallcollector]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Worst case scenario is you might see a slight market correction.

This sentence is absolutely incorrect.

[smallcollector]

Would encourage reading "chet" posts here. These are well written and logical.

[Giangos]

Fascinating stuff!

But the best value I get from mine is this ….

Wearing it. When I look down I don’t see 50k, I see a beautiful timepiece.




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[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Is this fake news, wishful thinking, or another anti-Daytona thread??

There are 71 white SS Daytonas on C24 in the USA right now. Those numbers are about spot on as they were in Dec 2021. There is no change I have seen other than they are higher $$$ and I have been following white SS Daytona’s the last 12 months. There was 102 in the USA in October of 2021.

Pretty clear in the USA. Notice the basic filtering including all models even ones without a full set. That’s 71 total.

Funny how you never responded. Where are the black ones?

[enjoythemusic]

This what they all been waitin' for
I guess so
They been waitin' for this Rolex for a long time didn't they, hey
I guess so
Been waitin' for this Rolex for a long time didn't they, hey

Time to share my vibe right now
I'm feelin' myself

Panda, Panda
Panda, Panda, Panda, Panda, Panda...

[nr1416]

Originally Posted by 2loaded

90% of C24 web traffic must be price checkers?

I'd guess 99%. LOL

[dommasters]

I've decided to swap my NOS 16520 for one. Whoop! Hopefully this way a trader will come to me, rather than me chasing nonexistent ones on Chrono.