Will we get back to normal pricing?

[gerry100]

when it becomes obvious there is no money to be made

[watchamatic]

Nope. Rolex will never be able to meet demand for the foreseeable future.

[francoamerican]

Originally Posted by watchamatic

Nope. Rolex will never be able to meet demand for the foreseeable future.

Meaning Rolex will not shift datejust production to Daytona / day date production. And that they are short on precious green ceramic bezel power

[SS Oyster]

I don’t see a free fall, but the dramatic rise 3-4 months ago was partially due IMO to Rolex fulfilling “exhibit” watches for all ADs, which further restricted available watches for sale.

With that out of the way, watches are back in full production. Increased supply means reduction in prices.

Don’t expect them to drop to MSRP or even close, but I think the craziness is being mitigated with good supply side economic forces.


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[startrolexendrolex]

Originally Posted by Cp827

Where did you see this watch for 59k or 65k? With olive dial?

Please share where I can get one for 59. I been looking for one.

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[Fleetlord]

Not anywhere near enough FEAR in the market for those sort of price drops to occur.

Still plenty of money floating around to be spent without any serious concern.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Time Out

LMAO.

Patek makes about 60k watches a year
AP makes about 40k watches a year

Rolex makes 1 million + watches a year and climbing

AP / Patek = Ferrari

Rolex = Chevrolet

Chevrolet doesn't pinch off production to have inflated secondary numbers and neither will Rolex.

yeah but of that 1 million how many are steel daytonas/pepsis/etc. they could be producing 500k datejusts alone across all the different configurations for all we know

[noshake]

Rolex = Mercedes, but the Z06 waiting lists are just as long as the SS sports models.

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah but of that 1 million how many are steel daytonas/pepsis/etc. they could be producing 500k datejusts alone across all the different configurations for all we know

My AD said they get as many Pepsi's as they do subs or DJ's.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Time Out

My AD said they get as many Pepsi's as they do subs or DJ's.

unlikely, and if somehow not at your AD then at most

[JSCP]

DD rose gold Olive Dial is today at a reputable grey in US at 87$k +
so if you find grey at $59k as OP
mentions go get it!

[Cp827]

Originally Posted by startrolexendrolex

Please share where I can get one for 59. I been looking for one.

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Yeah I’ll get 2 at 59 lol

[Apheaven]

I love all of the extreme positions on pricing

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Not anywhere near enough FEAR in the market for those sort of price drops to occur.

Still plenty of money floating around to be spent without any serious concern.

Exactly.

In addition, Verizon is rasing their minimum wage to $20.00 an hour and Apple store employees are asking for $30.00. Starbucks is unionizing and Amazon is trying. Wages are going up, demand will only go higher with the expansion of the money supply.

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Exactly.

In addition, Verizon is rasing their minimum wage to $20.00 an hour and Apple store employees are asking for $30.00. Starbucks is unionizing and Amazon is trying. Wages are going up, demand will only go higher with the expansion of the money supply.

Not with inflation

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by hondacb1002

beshannon
-Why?

because prices will reach actual market values. instead of the artifical values they are at now from all the bailouts.

-M2 has been growing for the last 25 years. Where are prices going to go back to?

I don't know where prices are going to. However prices are not reaching market clearnace because of the bailouts. Do you disagree with this numerical fact?

-What "bailouts"?

In 2008 there were banking bailouts from the banks giving out so many loans that could never be paid back. Banks were not allowed to fail and the new norm became bailouts. Imagine banks failing at giving out loans, and then being allowed to stay in business. Covid happens and instead of companies being punished for not saving for a rainy day (like an adult) they are propped up by money printing. Prices are not reaching Market Clearance. Instead we have an artificial market that is created with a goverenment handing out money to companies that should not be in business if it were not for the bailout bucks.



very few will be able to afford them. the reason why it is hard to get a rolex for msrp from an ad is because of the easy money, the bailout bucks. that is why there is so much demand, artificial demand from the $

Ah, so 14 years later you are unhappy about what happened and how it affects watch prices now?

Demand is only going higher, wages are increasing, money is too easy all across the world. What is the basis for you to say they demand is artificial?

Try explaining how "bailouts" in the United States are creating demand all across the world?

Good luck to you.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Not with inflation

Irrelevant.

Inflation is worldwide. Demand for luxury goods has never been affected by core CPI inflation.

[Apheaven]

Originally Posted by Madison1

I was looking at a grey market Olive Dial RG DD40 it started at 65 then 62 and now 59 in the space of a week. Catching a falling knife comes to mind.

Hopefully we can get back to a new normal soon and perhaps this correlates to an uptick in new incoming posts on this forum.

As others have said I don't think we will see under retail but may stabalise at a 10-20% premium

Juat my observations.

Please note the OP is referencing pricing that is in £ BRITISH POUNDS (NOT USD).


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[ajw45]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Exactly.

In addition, Verizon is rasing their minimum wage to $20.00 an hour and Apple store employees are asking for $30.00. Starbucks is unionizing and Amazon is trying. Wages are going up, demand will only go higher with the expansion of the money supply.

Love it when people immediately point to hourly wages going up as the big driver of inflation, the sky falling, and Rolex prices going higher. Someone going from $30k/year to $40k/year is not lining up at the Rolex AD to blow their big raise.

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by ajw45

Love it when people immediately point to hourly wages going up as the big driver of inflation, the sky falling, and Rolex prices going higher. Someone going from $30k/year to $40k/year is not lining up at the Rolex AD to blow their big raise.

They will if they think they can flip a watch and make 25% of their yearly salary easy peasy.

[JohnGingerwood]

All assets rise and fall in value. Art, classic cars, antiques, jewelry, etc. Rolex will as well, but no way to tell when. They are in high demand still and low supply, so it does not appear values will drop substantially anytime soon.

[mobster600]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Exactly.

In addition, Verizon is rasing their minimum wage to $20.00 an hour and Apple store employees are asking for $30.00. Starbucks is unionizing and Amazon is trying. Wages are going up, demand will only go higher with the expansion of the money supply.

People are demanding higher wages because they can't afford to pay their rent. Not to go out and spend it.

[Patek_collector]

price correction is good for us as collectors. will things crash, i really dont know but i am not sure. dealers will sell quickly but collectors wont.

i just imagine if a Patek 5711 goes back to $60K (or AP 15202), the there will be tons of collectors will buy and take prices up again. it will be interesting to see what will happen in the next 6 months. 20% drop makes sense. more, i will be surprised, but happily so.

last, brands know the game. Rolex/Patek/AP will quickly restrict supply if prices fall quickly. they cannot afford a loss of value and they can easily play this game... at least in my opinion.

[daveswordfish]

Before things went nuts, you could easily get some models at a discount, many at retail, some at a premium. To think we won’t get back to this model is pure folly. Of course we will. Rolex is a hype beast right now. Can’t tell you how many folks I know from work who’ve had me “help them” pay 2-3x retail for a Rolex through the secondary market. They don’t care, because it’s the hot thing. I try to dissuade them, to no avail. This won’t be forever, of course…that’s just not the way hot things work by definition.

When…no one knows. Next year? 2025?Later? Will it be a rapid decline or a slow crawl? No one knows when or how. But make no mistake, it is coming.


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[TswaneNguni]

For every 25 Dollar millionaires in the USA and China there is how many Rolex available per year ?

ONE !

I am not even including the rest of the world .

There is plenty money around.

Nothing is crashing .

[ThatOtherGuy7]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

For every 25 Dollar millionaires in the USA and China there is how many Rolex available per year ?

ONE !

I am not even including the rest of the world .

There is plenty money around.

Nothing is crashing .

Not all of them want a Rolex though. Some might want AP, PP, VC, RM, etc. Or perhaps they would rather spend the money on art, or cars. When prices drop, if they do drop, lots of people will drop out from buying. More supply for same or less demand means more availability.

[Xtralarg]

Originally Posted by 3sheets86

Me neither. I do like them though.

A bloke that I know through work got twitchy between the first and second UK lockdowns and bailed out of his platinum Daytona for £50,000. He was pleased because he bought it new with discount for under £40,000, he's not pleased now though! haha

Why would he be unhappy at 10k profit?

[3sheets86]

Originally Posted by Xtralarg

Why would he be unhappy at 10k profit?

It's not that he was unhappy at the time, it's just hindsight isn't it. He liked the watch but thought he it was going to crash so he sold and now he wants to buy another to replace it the price is double what he got for his.

[grimps]

If you was lucky enough to buy your Rolex at retail price you'll never have to worry too much about losing money on it if you ever need to sell

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Time Out

My AD said they get as many Pepsi's as they do subs or DJ's.

Highly unlikely. Pepsis would be easier to obtain, not offered for sale at 250% of MSRP and there would be thousands on the used market, dwarfing all the other Rolex models for sale.