Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[APWhale]

Originally Posted by Mini2

No ones reaching out to me

Good luck... I sense your time is coming soon...

[dmash]

Originally Posted by APWhale

Good luck... I sense your time is coming soon...

I find it funny how in the AP Section the ‘Whale’ always has positive notes to say while the ‘Tuna’ is always negative

[GW44]

Originally Posted by dmash

the ‘Tuna’ is always negative

Or just outright obtuse in his case

[APWhale]

Originally Posted by dmash

the ‘Tuna’ is always negative

Who?

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by APWhale

Good luck... I sense your time is coming soon...

The tide is turning

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

Oh so very true. The next 12 months will be interesting. I’m curious how the watch market will change/adapt. Are we close to the days where an AD Calls and offers someone a watch only to be told they can buy it cheaper on the gray market? I think we are close. I’m happy to continue to support my AD’s as they’ve always taken care of me. But for us true watch enthusiasts I think we’d all agree that it’s frustrating to not be able to buy certain pieces because of the false demand due to arbitrage. All it takes are gray prices breaking under MSRP and all that arbitrage goes away… and so does the false demand. But who knows….


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[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by dmash

I find it funny how in the AP Section the ‘Whale’ always has positive notes to say while the ‘Tuna’ is always negative

Oh man, this has to be the best post of the thread!

No offense Tuna!

[youthagainsttt]

Another phenomenon in HK which I won’t miss seeing - some of the grey dealer areas where there are a whole bunch of them. Crowds of people, sometimes seemingly entire families talking to each other. And you can hear them - they’re not talking about the watches per se but talking about the watches and their corresponding price moves up or down. Pretty much just like watching the stock market. And you can’t even get a look in the shop windows because of these crowds

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by jrs146

Oh so very true. The next 12 months will be interesting. I’m curious how the watch market will change/adapt. Are we close to the days where an AD Calls and offers someone a watch only to be told they can buy it cheaper on the gray market? I think we are close. I’m happy to continue to support my AD’s as they’ve always taken care of me. But for us true watch enthusiasts I think we’d all agree that it’s frustrating to not be able to buy certain pieces because of the false demand due to arbitrage. All it takes are gray prices breaking under MSRP and all that arbitrage goes away… and so does the false demand. But who knows….


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I think you might be right.
Don't want to judge but you can see how long a few of us have been around for a while before any crazy times. This should hold some weight.
The fun is literally just round the corner, patience is a virtue

[psm11]

Originally Posted by jrs146

Oh so very true. The next 12 months will be interesting. I’m curious how the watch market will change/adapt. Are we close to the days where an AD Calls and offers someone a watch only to be told they can buy it cheaper on the gray market? I think we are close. I’m happy to continue to support my AD’s as they’ve always taken care of me. But for us true watch enthusiasts I think we’d all agree that it’s frustrating to not be able to buy certain pieces because of the false demand due to arbitrage. All it takes are gray prices breaking under MSRP and all that arbitrage goes away… and so does the false demand. But who knows….


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It is kind of a bummer however that MSRP for these pieces has gone through the roof in the last 1.5 years. I do OK, but I am by no means a whale or extremely wealthy. A Royal Oak is something I have saved for for years to mark a career milestone. With the price increases I have had to continue to top off my Royal Oak fund a couple thousand every year (which is significant to me). With the price increases an "entry level" RO is now almost $30k after taxes. I want to support my boutique and build the relationship but if the RO I want ends up going under retail it will be really tough not to take advantage. The new 43 MM ROO I like is now selling significantly under retail and it would be really hard to stomach forking over an extra 8-10k at the boutique just to build the relationship.

[gesus]

Originally Posted by jrs146

Oh so very true. The next 12 months will be interesting. I’m curious how the watch market will change/adapt. Are we close to the days where an AD Calls and offers someone a watch only to be told they can buy it cheaper on the gray market? I think we are close. I’m happy to continue to support my AD’s as they’ve always taken care of me. But for us true watch enthusiasts I think we’d all agree that it’s frustrating to not be able to buy certain pieces because of the false demand due to arbitrage. All it takes are gray prices breaking under MSRP and all that arbitrage goes away… and so does the false demand. But who knows….

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Nicely said. I do want to mention, and it's not specific to AP, but continuing to be loyal to AD's after the shenanigan's they've been pulling the last number of years will be tough.

[Xerxes77]

I am sure that AP will keep the price and some pieces will sell above MRSP like 15407, 15510 blue and khaki….
Things are change a lot now compared with what we know about AP. In 2018 you can buy any RO new on grey market with 10% under the list price. But to not forget that now AP have 90% Boutiques AP not retailers and they control very good the market and almost every piece’s sales are need to be approved before they are allocated. So, it is hard with discount..
Also in my humble opinion now people who have money but the last months make people to take care because they don’t know what’s coming. In many aspects people have change think about luxury watches and here talk about PP, AP and Rolex.
Will see…. Many people when Covid starts sold his watches because they believe that nobody wants this watches. Reality shows us that was a bad ideea.
I read about 15510 on around 40k here but this price it’s around 50% above MRSP.
Nobody knows what and how it will be but I an sure that we will not have this luck to return on pre Covid situation.
Last week I on Barcelona at AP house.
They don’t have only 2-3 models for women but watches are sold waiting for customers.
I think it’s pretty sooner to can predict.
Also in Europe the grey market buy watches with no problem.
Just my 2 cents

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Xerxes77

I am sure that AP will keep the price and some pieces will sell above MRSP like 15407, 15510 blue and khaki….
Things are change a lot now compared with what we know about AP. In 2018 you can buy any RO new on grey market with 10% under the list price. But to not forget that now AP have 90% Boutiques AP not retailers and they control very good the market and almost every piece’s sales are need to be approved before they are allocated. So, it is hard with discount..
Also in my humble opinion now people who have money but the last months make people to take care because they don’t know what’s coming. In many aspects people have change think about luxury watches and here talk about PP, AP and Rolex.
Will see…. Many people when Covid starts sold his watches because they believe that nobody wants this watches. Reality shows us that was a bad ideea.
I read about 15510 on around 40k here but this price it’s around 50% above MRSP.
Nobody knows what and how it will be but I an sure that we will not have this luck to return on pre Covid situation.
Last week I on Barcelona at AP house.
They don’t have only 2-3 models for women but watches are sold waiting for customers.
I think it’s pretty sooner to can predict.
Also in Europe the grey market buy watches with no problem.
Just my 2 cents

really? There have been a ton of videos on YouTube the last couple of weeks by European dealers where they state they aren’t buying and instead only taking consignments.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by gesus

Nicely said. I do want to mention, and it's not specific to AP, but continuing to be loyal to AD's after the shenanigan's they've been pulling the last number of years will be tough.

THIS! Curious to see how much they change if demand continues to slide. My AP experience has been hit or miss but I have written off Rolex. I bought my Batgirl for a very slight premium on the grey market after the horrible treatment by ADs here in LA.

Premature eye roll at the folks who will inevitably come on here and defend their boutique/AD/SA and try to excuse the horrible behavior and drone on about how important it is we all support the ADs and boutiques and to not buy grey.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by psm11

THIS! Curious to see how much they change if demand continues to slide. My AP experience has been hit or miss but I have written off Rolex. I bought my Batgirl for a very slight premium on the grey market after the horrible treatment by ADs here in LA.

Premature eye roll at the folks who will inevitably come on here and defend their boutique/AD/SA and try to excuse the horrible behavior and drone on about how important it is we all support the ADs and boutiques and to not buy grey.

What's there to "eye roll"? Many here have received excellent service from their boutiques, without being athletes, celebrities or super-rich. Why is that less worthy of a mention than bad experiences (often by those who were just too late to the party, for whatever reason).

[psm11]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

What's there to "eye roll"? Many here have received excellent service from their boutiques, without being athletes, celebrities or super-rich. Why is that less worthy of a mention than bad experiences (often by those who were just too late to the party, for whatever reason).

I get it. Everyone’s experience is different. I am also not downplaying or insinuating those positive experiences shouldn’t be mentioned and recognized. But let’s pause for a second and recognize that is how it should be. Buying a 30k plus watch should be an enjoyable experience and its SAs jobs to treat all customers with respect. A lot of times the good experiences seem to be the exception rather than the rule. There have been plenty of threads across this forum where folks have shared a negative experience only to be attacked by other members and accused of sexism, harassment, etc simply for sharing their negative experience. It’s almost as if some people think their SA is seeing their posts and it will somehow buy favor for them. The eye roll is meant more for those who think AP, Rolex, etc can do no wrong.

[thecrownprince]

Originally Posted by psm11

I get it. Everyone’s experience is different. I am also not downplaying or insinuating those positive experiences shouldn’t be mentioned and recognized. But let’s pause for a second and recognize that is how it should be. Buying a 30k plus watch should be an enjoyable experience and its SAs jobs to treat all customers with respect. A lot of times the good experiences seem to be the exception rather than the rule. There have been plenty of threads across this forum where folks have shared a negative experience only to be attacked by other members and accused of sexism, harassment, etc simply for sharing their negative experience. It’s almost as if some people think their SA is seeing their posts and it will somehow buy favor for them. The eye roll is meant more for those who think AP, Rolex, etc can do no wrong.

I have nothing against people who have had bad experiences. I had my own bad experiences for 5 years before I walked into the right boutique. I’m not shy about telling that story because it speaks volume to how amazing my SA is. There are a lot of politics and personalities and timing in this watch world.

That being said I’m grateful for my SA and how I’ve been introduced into the brand after years of trying to forge a path.

[sathwik]

Production of watches will drop due to energy crisis

[GW44]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

What's there to "eye roll"? Many here have received excellent service from their boutiques, without being athletes, celebrities or super-rich. Why is that less worthy of a mention than bad experiences (often by those who were just too late to the party, for whatever reason).

Well said.

Finding both the time and right approach to forge a productive relationship with a watch brand/AD or Boutique (or AP House) is a) well worth it in my (and friends too) experience and b) will pay dividends tangibly with the right outlook and that positive approach.

It's not for everyone of course so I get why some might walk away and go grey as a result. Neither is wrong, but just a case of doing what works for you.

[youthagainsttt]

I think the service is fine, they aren't almost overly nice like Cartier, Roger Dubuis or Hublot but are a bit more cool. You can understand this as their watches are in such demand they don't need to try as hard, if you know what I mean

[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by sathwik

Production of watches will drop due to energy crisis

Agree
This will affect more production.
Now it’s a fall in demand of watches in general not AP, Rolex or Patek. In the end all are fall in demand because many people prefer to stay with money and to see what comes next.
I think who really are to be disappointed are who are buying Rolex on extra exploded prices.
AP or Patek have enough requests that no need to be stressed about customers. Of course numbers of buyers fall because flippers disappear. This is a good thing because shows really watch lover so rise the chance to achieve a 50’anniversary

[dchang81]

Originally Posted by Xerxes77

Agree
This will affect more production.
Now it’s a fall in demand of watches in general not AP, Rolex or Patek. In the end all are fall in demand because many people prefer to stay with money and to see what comes next.
I think who really are to be disappointed are who are buying Rolex on extra exploded prices.
AP or Patek have enough requests that no need to be stressed about customers. Of course numbers of buyers fall because flippers disappear. This is a good thing because shows really watch lover so rise the chance to achieve a 50’anniversary

Will say that before the explosion there were a lot of worries in the market. I mean I keep referencing it, but for them to have a 30% price drop for PM pieces was insane. Not sure if it'll get that bad but people have a short memory about how things were just 5 years ago.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by dchang81

Will say that before the explosion there were a lot of worries in the market. I mean I keep referencing it, but for them to have a 30% price drop for PM pieces was insane. Not sure if it'll get that bad but people have a short memory about how things were just 5 years ago.

I've reiterated this countless times. and it's not just new members, it's old time guys also, who have become so disillusioned by current market antics, that they seemingly forgot just a few years prior to COVID where practically *ALL* Swiss watchmakers were incredibly uneasy about the entire hobby going belly up in the near future. It's really something seeing people make claims with certainty that 'prices will NEVER' fall back down, or 'this is the NEW new'.

People really should tread carefully treating this other than exactly what it is, a hobby. Almost spit out my coffee the other morning reading some about some guy who was telling others to 'buy the dip' and put their entire savings into watches. What are some of these people smoking?

[911AP]

I feel everyone here just has confirmation bias. The AP market has pretty much stabilized from a month or so ago. In fact some royal oaks have started to move back up.

Everything for right now has taken a hit. It's only temporary. It will go back up. May take longer to get back to how it was, but it will eventually get there. People forget this trend has happened before. They end up going higher. The supply situation has not changed at all. It's not any better. Did everyone forget Econ 101? Demand may have taken a hit but not enough for these to go back to MSRP or anywhere close to it when they were selling 2-3x across the board.

Don't compare AP to Rolex......

[thekman]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I feel everyone here just has confirmation bias. The AP market has pretty much stabilized from a month or so ago. In fact some royal oaks have started to move back up.

Everything for right now has taken a hit. It's only temporary. It will go back up. May take longer to get back to how it was, but it will eventually get there. People forget this trend has happened before. They end up going higher. The supply situation has not changed at all. It's not any better. Did everyone forget Econ 101? Demand may have taken a hit but not enough for these to go back to MSRP or anywhere close to it when they were selling 2-3x across the board.

Don't compare AP to Rolex......

Actually this has never happened before. Sure the watch market has dipped before and then went back up again but it was never ever in it's entire history as crazy as it was until Feb 2022. I have no clue if it will go down or up but I think to say that THIS has happened before is a little misleading. We have never seen a market like this where whole catalogues of brands will selling over retail, some 6-7x MSRP.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I feel everyone here just has confirmation bias. The AP market has pretty much stabilized from a month or so ago. In fact some royal oaks have started to move back up.

Everything for right now has taken a hit. It's only temporary. It will go back up. May take longer to get back to how it was, but it will eventually get there. People forget this trend has happened before. They end up going higher. The supply situation has not changed at all. It's not any better. Did everyone forget Econ 101? Demand may have taken a hit but not enough for these to go back to MSRP or anywhere close to it when they were selling 2-3x across the board.

Don't compare AP to Rolex......

No. A 15400 full set sold for 32.5k a couple days ago. Countless offshores are at recent lows. Prices continue to trend downward.

History may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme… exceptional circumstances fueled the crazy watch market, and without them, it is extremely likely that prices will revert to the mean.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I feel everyone here just has confirmation bias. The AP market has pretty much stabilized from a month or so ago. In fact some royal oaks have started to move back up.

Everything for right now has taken a hit. It's only temporary. It will go back up. May take longer to get back to how it was, but it will eventually get there. People forget this trend has happened before. They end up going higher. The supply situation has not changed at all. It's not any better. Did everyone forget Econ 101? Demand may have taken a hit but not enough for these to go back to MSRP or anywhere close to it when they were selling 2-3x across the board.

Don't compare AP to Rolex......

Again, with certainties, that a non-essential luxury good 'will' trade at 2-3x MSRP, not even just stabilizing as a used good for what you paid new (which in itself is unusual).

I really fail to understand how you quote Econ 101 but then make that statement as well.

Originally Posted by Vince_76

No. A 15400 full set sold for 32.5k a couple days ago. Countless offshores are at recent lows. Prices continue to trend downward.

History may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme… exceptional circumstances fueled the crazy watch market, and without them, it is extremely likely that prices will revert to the mean.

Agree. Anybody claiming the AP market has stabilized is misinformed or simply not wanting to face reality. Quite frankly, NOTHING is selling secondhand for AP right now.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by thekman

Actually this has never happened before. Sure the watch market has dipped before and then went back up again but it was never ever in it's entire history as crazy as it was until Feb 2022. I have no clue if it will go down or up but I think to say that THIS has happened before is a little misleading. We have never seen a market like this where whole catalogues of brands will selling over retail, some 6-7x MSRP.

Don't look at things as whole numbers. Look at percentages. The market shot up really fast and then corrected really fast. We got a huge surge last winter to February of this year. Now we got a correction. We are basically back to before that surge.

Originally Posted by Vince_76

No. A 15400 full set sold for 32.5k a couple days ago. Countless offshores are at recent lows. Prices continue to trend downward.

History may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme… exceptional circumstances fueled the crazy watch market, and without them, it is extremely likely that prices will revert to the mean.

Where is this information coming from? I sold an offshore recently for a high price. Plus you cannot use offshores as they never really benefited from this craze. They barely even hit retail except for a few models second hand. Follow the ROs and ROCs.

Originally Posted by dmash

Again, with certainties, that a non-essential luxury good 'will' trade at 2-3x MSRP, not even just stabilizing as a used good for what you paid new (which in itself is unusual).

I really fail to understand how you quote Econ 101 but then make that statement as well.



Agree. Anybody claiming the AP market has stabilized is misinformed or simply not wanting to face reality. Quite frankly, NOTHING is selling secondhand for AP right now.

That's not true. A lot of things are selling if they are priced correctly. You have views into chrono24 and other random people listing things for stupid numbers. If you talk to the reputable greys that are in the business of selling and not holding, they are still selling. I'm still getting offers for my watches that I turn down.

Supply and demand as I said before. Supply hasn't changed. Demand has a bit. It's still extremely hard to get some of these watches at retail. It's practically impossible for most. Mostly because the supply is so low.

A jumbo for instance may not be selling for 180-200k like the high. But it's still going for 2-3x MSRP. A 15500 is still going for almost 2x MSRP. It's not going back to MSRP. The only reason these watches ever sold at MSRP was because of authorized dealers selling them for 30% off, and the demand was not there. AP because of social media has gotten insane exposure. It's not going to be undone. So now you have more demand than before, with the same supply.

Wait till inflation gets under control, and the fed stops raising rates. You are going to see a pop every where. Everybody better take advantage of this while they can.....

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Where is this information coming from? I sold an offshore recently for a high price. Plus you cannot use offshores as they never really benefited from this craze. They barely even hit retail except for a few models second hand. Follow the ROs and ROCs.

Your points were already refuted by numerous members here. If you have to ask where I’m getting this information, then you’re likely uninformed and shouldn’t speak on the subject (MODA).

I can use offshores because they did in fact significantly benefit from the market conditions of the past 2 years.

Your numbers are all wrong which invalidates much of what you’re saying - 15500s are going for 1.5x MSRP (and sitting).

The ROs and ROCs are all dropping. There’s modern 3-handers all over the place from 33k to the 39k. 15500s have dropped over 30% and continue to fall, for example. For the aforementioned reasons that I and other posters made, it’s more likely that prices revert to the mean than stabilize at their covid-bubble levels.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

No. A 15400 full set sold for 32.5k a couple days ago. Countless offshores are at recent lows. Prices continue to trend downward.

History may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme… exceptional circumstances fueled the crazy watch market, and without them, it is extremely likely that prices will revert to the mean.

Originally Posted by 911AP

Don't look at things as whole numbers. Look at percentages. The market shot up really fast and then corrected really fast. We got a huge surge last winter to February of this year. Now we got a correction. We are basically back to before that surge.



Where is this information coming from? I sold an offshore recently for a high price. Plus you cannot use offshores as they never really benefited from this craze. They barely even hit retail except for a few models second hand. Follow the ROs and ROCs.



That's not true. A lot of things are selling if they are priced correctly. You have views into chrono24 and other random people listing things for stupid numbers. If you talk to the reputable greys that are in the business of selling and not holding, they are still selling. I'm still getting offers for my watches that I turn down.

Supply and demand as I said before. Supply hasn't changed. Demand has a bit. It's still extremely hard to get some of these watches at retail. It's practically impossible for most. Mostly because the supply is so low.

A jumbo for instance may not be selling for 180-200k like the high. But it's still going for 2-3x MSRP. A 15500 is still going for almost 2x MSRP. It's not going back to MSRP. The only reason these watches ever sold at MSRP was because of authorized dealers selling them for 30% off, and the demand was not there. AP because of social media has gotten insane exposure. It's not going to be undone. So now you have more demand than before, with the same supply.

Wait till inflation gets under control, and the fed stops raising rates. You are going to see a pop every where. Everybody better take advantage of this while they can.....

The *only* people I've heard talk like this are grey dealers who are underwater Like come on, 'it's not going back to MSRP', 'its not going to be undone', 'take advantage of this while they can'. You're also mistaken and can verify easily that supply has actually increased across the board, it hasn't remained stagnant. Therefore more watches & a higher MSRP can turn things around much quicker than you seem to anticipate or even think is a possibility.

Secondly, it's a bit funny how you mention you're getting offers (what kind of grey dealer randomly hits up a client to make offers on watches?), yet there's MANY dealers who flat out tell you they're not buying anything, you can call these mainstream dealers and they'll directly tell you no, and you also have members here who can also verify this...... and this entire thread was created to elaborate on such.....yet you have some secretive off the radar grey dealer network who is prevailing above all others and winning in current market environment.

Not trying to call a spade a spade but....