What happened to all those guys wishing for an AP price crash?

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vince M.

Everyone was surprised Rolex didn't do a massive msrp increase this year.

I was not.

Yup, Rolex played their cards way better than AP.

Flat out, AP with the number of price increases and the amount itself, was a total money grab. And as I’ve stated before, I think may be a prelude to a buy out. Pump the numbers, look amazing, get an even better off, ship sails.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yup, Rolex played their cards way better than AP.

Flat out, AP with the number of price increases and the amount itself, was a total money grab. And as I’ve stated before, I think may be a prelude to a buy out. Pump the numbers, look amazing, get an even better off, ship sails.

Wonder if FHB knew this is where the market was heading and jumped ship because of it (i.e., go out on top and let someone else deal with this).

[psm11]

Originally Posted by aa909

They've already screwed up by pricing the new 43MM ROOs >$41K. Those are already going brand new in the mid $30K and probably low $30Ks soon. Not a good look for AP. They got greedy when they saw 42 ROOs going for $40K+ on secondary market last year and over shot IMO

This 100%. I love the new ROO but not at almost $50k. They are (brand new) a $30k watch tops.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Trailboss516

I was referring to post #10 on this thread :)

Ah got ya! Makes sense now lol.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by yachty 1

If the boutique doesn't discount how will the roos go lower?I personally think that move will hurt AP esp in a recession.

Eventually AP will exhaust the clients willing to pay almost $50k for them and will have no other choice to keep the pieces moving.

[JettyOne]

I’m not entirely convinced the lux watch market is in the toilet going into 2023. I’d need to see how China moves when it’s opening up. Tech and crypto are f’ed. New money is wiped out.

But, global Tech will picked back up + China is lux hungry. We could see an oversell going to Jan, but soon as Tech + China turned itself, lux will too.

All signs are pointing down, until they don’t. For now 15202ST just sold for $60k. That’s is a one-and-done piece.

[Trailboss516]

Originally Posted by psm11

Ah got ya! Makes sense now lol.

All good my friend

[dmash]

Originally Posted by JettyOne

I’m not entirely convinced the lux watch market is in the toilet going into 2023. I’d need to see how China moves when it’s opening up. Tech and crypto are f’ed. New money is wiped out.

But, global Tech will picked back up + China is lux hungry. We could see an oversell going to Jan, but soon as Tech + China turned itself, lux will too.

All signs are pointing down, until they don’t. For now 15202ST just sold for $60k. That’s is a one-and-done piece.

No offense but I see this chirped by a lot of people who don’t actually travel to China, have business in China and really have a feel for China currently. This isn’t near as true as it was 2 or even 1 year ago. People banking on this China bail out need to wake up. It’s not happening, stuff is looking very, very bad there for a lot of people.

[Knappo 1307]

Did the OP ever sell his 30k watch for 57k ?

[Trailboss516]

Not sure, it is still listed here:

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=879033

[awu]

This is now my favorite section on TRF. I love price threads and entertaining threads like this one. Thanks to the contributors like dmash and Vince.

[JettyOne]

Originally Posted by dmash

chirped by a lot of people who don’t actually travel to China, have business in China

You seem to immediately take an exchange down to personal level real quick. This is the second time you hurled “you don’t travel” at me. It seems like your go-to, to discredit a point. Let’s not go there. It’s childish.

The #1 lux/ultra lux market is closed. The sell off is a reflection of that + economy downturn. Until China is open back up, prediction of ultra lux demise is not accurate. Your sample size is inaccurate because you left out the largest market. MODA is a good glimpse of the bottom end, sure. You can extract talking points from Vadim’s posts., but don’t mistaken it for the ultra lux global market. On a global scale, they don’t exist.

Just because you can find a pair of used Jordan for $10 from a guy in Miami, doesn’t mean Jordan’s sell for 10 bucks.

AP and PP give zero fuk about the working class. Millionaire globally are still buying $20k bubbles at the clubs. The term “investment” is hated by watch collectors yet, doesn’t make it disappear. Wealthy buy watches as investments. These facts aren’t up for debate.

The ultimate question is this: even with the absurd price increase of ROO, pushing them over $40k. Will AP client base support the 50,000 watches they produce annually? I think so.

Will MODA sell an ROO for under $20k. I think so.

Will China take a huge bite out of ultra lux when she’s back in business? I think so.

let’s keep this civil.


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[agsstructures]

I was waiting and scooped up a 5402!

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yup, Rolex played their cards way better than AP.

Flat out, AP with the number of price increases and the amount itself, was a total money grab. And as I’ve stated before, I think may be a prelude to a buy out. Pump the numbers, look amazing, get an even better off, ship sails.

Well, as you know from your observations on Moda, PM models like the OF Yachtmasters or WG Sub are now also selling well under MSRP, with e.g. WG Daytona close to MSRP, even though Rolex was quite conservative with price increases. So it's not clear to me that Rolex' approach was more or less astute than AP's (and I say this as someone who wishes AP would take it easy, as I'm planning to continue to buy my watches from the boutiques).

[dmash]

Originally Posted by JettyOne

You seem to immediately take an exchange down to personal level real quick. This is the second time you hurled “you don’t travel” at me. It seems like your go-to, to discredit a point. Let’s not go there. It’s childish.

The #1 lux/ultra lux market is closed. The sell off is a reflection of that + economy downturn. Until China is open back up, prediction of ultra lux demise is not accurate. Your sample size is inaccurate because you left out the largest market. MODA is a good glimpse of the bottom end, sure. You can extract talking points from Vadim’s posts., but don’t mistaken it for the ultra lux global market. On a global scale, they don’t exist.

Just because you can find a pair of used Jordan for $10 from a guy in Miami, doesn’t mean Jordan’s sell for 10 bucks.

AP and PP give zero fuk about the working class. Millionaire globally are still buying $20k bubbles at the clubs. The term “investment” is hated by watch collectors yet, doesn’t make it disappear. Wealthy buy watches as investments. These facts aren’t up for debate.

The ultimate question is this: even with the absurd price increase of ROO, pushing them over $40k. Will AP client base support the 50,000 watches they produce annually? I think so.

Will MODA sell an ROO for under $20k. I think so.

Will China take a huge bite out of ultra lux when she’s back in business? I think so.

let’s keep this civil.


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You seem hypersensitive to not traveling. That’s not the point of my post and it wasn’t a shot at you, I literally, word for word, clearly said that it was chirped by a lot of people. I never said anything about MODA. You’re completely going off topic and being defensive for no reason as you think it’s some personal attack when I simply point out that you’re misinformed. If you deem that ‘childish’ that somebody points out a factual thing about your logic, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Back to what I actually said. The fact still remains, you don’t seem to really have a grasp on Chinese markets and you’re just reiterating what you’ve read about from others and have no firsthand experience with in any capacity. Which multiple people are doing. or please explain otherwise if you do have some firsthand knowledge/are interimingled to where you can offer some input based on something other than an opinion. I *am* in tune with Chinese businesses/buyers and the economy is doing very, VERY poorly.

Again, this chirping of China ‘saving’ multiple markets it’s completely unrealistic and not what is coming. Just like before people were stating Christmas/holidays will see a resurgence for certain goods, it’s already playing out opposite.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Well, as you know from your observations on Moda, PM models like the OF Yachtmasters or WG Sub are now also selling well under MSRP, with e.g. WG Daytona close to MSRP, even though Rolex was quite conservative with price increases. So it's not clear to me that Rolex' approach was more or less astute than AP's (and I say this as someone who wishes AP would take it easy, as I'm planning to continue to buy my watches from the boutiques).

That's a different can of worms bringing PM into the mix (and solely focusing on that) as those individuals are a mere smidge of the SS buying population. When it comes to Rolex anyways.

SS ROC are wholly below MSRP as of now. Not *at* MSRP, below. Show me a current model SS Rolex trending at or under MSRP as of today. I'd say that reaffirms my point that Rolex didn't get greedy, aside from the fact in itself, that they factually did not increase prices the amount of times that AP did.

[JettyOne]

Originally Posted by dmash

You seem hypersensitive to not traveling. That’s not the point of my post and it wasn’t a shot at you, I literally, word for word, clearly said that it was chirped by a lot of people. I never said anything about MODA. You’re completely going off topic and being defensive for no reason as you think it’s some personal attack when I simply point out that you’re misinformed. If you deem that ‘childish’ that somebody points out a factual thing about your logic, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Back to what I actually said. The fact still remains, you don’t seem to really have a grasp on Chinese markets and you’re just reiterating what you’ve read about from others and have no firsthand experience with in any capacity. Which multiple people are doing. or please explain otherwise if you do have some firsthand knowledge/are interimingled to where you can offer some input based on something other than an opinion. I *am* in tune with Chinese businesses/buyers and the economy is doing very, VERY poorly.

Again, this chirping of China ‘saving’ multiple markets it’s completely unrealistic and not what is coming. Just like before people were stating Christmas/holidays will see a resurgence for certain goods, it’s already playing out opposite.

I work and live thruout China over the last 10years. We setup manufacturing facilities in six largest Chinese markets, 2 in Taiwan and 3 in Vietnam. I understand the Chinese market. It’s a minimum requirement.

You aren’t wrong, the Chinese market is bleeding from every sector, badly. I won’t comment anymore on this. However, the upper middle (and climbing up) is consuming lux at an alarming rate, STILL. I see Rolex producing 1.2M pieces having a tougher sell than AP and PP.

Here is the upper class Asian mentality, you might or might not be aware. “We don’t want stuff, we want treasure!” Another word, someone will get rid of 4 Rolex for an AP they deem treasure. Put it in context, it should be easier to sell a $40k ROO than to sell 4 DJs, in China, during a melt down.

I don’t think AP will encounter headwinds selling 50,000 pieces annually. The rarity isn’t *just* in the watch. The rarity/treasure is getting an allocation from AP.

Again, it’s too early to predict doom when the best player is still sitting on the bench.

Cheers.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by JettyOne

I work and live thruout China over the last 10years. We setup manufacturing facilities in six largest Chinese markets, 2 in Taiwan and 3 in Vietnam. I understand the Chinese market. It’s a minimum requirement.

You aren’t wrong, the Chinese market is bleeding from every sector, badly. I won’t comment anymore on this. However, the upper middle (and climbing up) is consuming lux at an alarming rate, STILL. I see Rolex producing 1.2M pieces having a tougher sell than AP and PP.

Here is the upper class Asian mentality, you might or might not be aware. “We don’t want stuff, we want treasure!” Another word, someone will get rid of 4 Rolex for an AP they deem treasure. Put it in context, it should be easier to sell a $40k ROO than to sell 4 DJs, in China, during a melt down.

I don’t think AP will encounter headwinds selling 50,000 pieces annually. The rarity isn’t *just* in the watch. The rarity/treasure is getting an allocation from AP.

Again, it’s too early to predict doom when the best player is still sitting on the bench.

Cheers.

Nice to see you do have some biz/experience there. I stand corrected then on you just reiterating others opinions (however, 100% there are tons others doing this).

We just have to agree to disagree though on what’s to come with their market. At the risk of stereotyping, I’m well aware with a majority of Asian individuals mentality towards luxury goods (my wife is Asian, ha), but I just see the last few years as a blip. Was China minting more millionaires yearly than before, yes, but the last few years have been an anomaly worldwide which we won’t see again for decades to come. China is in a really, really bad spot and stuff will get worse before it gets better

[JettyOne]

Originally Posted by dmash

Nice to see you do have some biz/experience there. I stand corrected then on you just reiterating others opinions (however, 100% there are tons others doing this).

We just have to agree to disagree though on what’s to come with their market. At the risk of stereotyping, I’m well aware with a majority of Asian individuals mentality towards luxury goods (my wife is Asian, ha), but I just see the last few years as a blip. Was China minting more millionaires yearly than before, yes, but the last few years have been an anomaly worldwide which we won’t see again for decades to come. China is in a really, really bad spot and stuff will get worse before it gets better

Here’s the crazy part.
The Chinese market can heal a lot sooner with its gov involvement. The struggle for power between gov and private sector is the single largest contributor for its bleeding.

This continual bleeding in tech, finance and housing in China can be stopped in a single switch, soon as gov throw in its support. This literally could be overnight! (Or will never happen)

So, you see why I’m not calling the market until China makes a move.

(At our firm. We blame Jack Ma for all this.)

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by dmash

That's a different can of worms bringing PM into the mix (and solely focusing on that) as those individuals are a mere smidge of the SS buying population. When it comes to Rolex anyways.

SS ROC are wholly below MSRP as of now. Not *at* MSRP, below. Show me a current model SS Rolex trending at or under MSRP as of today. I'd say that reaffirms my point that Rolex didn't get greedy, aside from the fact in itself, that they factually did not increase prices the amount of times that AP did.

I assume you mean "SS ROO", not ROC.

Current model SS Rolex: Yachmaster II is far below MSRP, SkyD non-blue are barely (<10%) over MSRP + tax.

I argue that PM Rolex is a better comparison relative to AP simply b/c of relative price vs AP's offerings, irrespective of material. Except for the hottest models, nothing in the $30k+ range is holding above MSRP, and everything including the hottest models is far below early 2022. So I'm not sure if there are any AP-specfic lessons to be drawn.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by JettyOne

You seem to immediately take an exchange down to personal level real quick. This is the second time you hurled “you don’t travel” at me. It seems like your go-to, to discredit a point. Let’s not go there. It’s childish.

The #1 lux/ultra lux market is closed. The sell off is a reflection of that + economy downturn. Until China is open back up, prediction of ultra lux demise is not accurate. Your sample size is inaccurate because you left out the largest market. MODA is a good glimpse of the bottom end, sure. You can extract talking points from Vadim’s posts., but don’t mistaken it for the ultra lux global market. On a global scale, they don’t exist.

Just because you can find a pair of used Jordan for $10 from a guy in Miami, doesn’t mean Jordan’s sell for 10 bucks.

AP and PP give zero fuk about the working class. Millionaire globally are still buying $20k bubbles at the clubs. The term “investment” is hated by watch collectors yet, doesn’t make it disappear. Wealthy buy watches as investments. These facts aren’t up for debate.

The ultimate question is this: even with the absurd price increase of ROO, pushing them over $40k. Will AP client base support the 50,000 watches they produce annually? I think so.

Will MODA sell an ROO for under $20k. I think so.

Will China take a huge bite out of ultra lux when she’s back in business? I think so.

let’s keep this civil.


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Ahh the old China argument. Heard that one before.

I haven’t seen any convincing evidence that China will recover anytime soon. The housing market is particularly of concern (I’m in the space). And though the culture there is geared more towards luxury consumption, there is no question that the appetite has diminished. Sure, there will always be the guy that’s dropping 20 K on a bottle (trust me, this would be the case, even if the world is burning).

I don’t think a reversion to the mean is predicated on China not opening. Just look at pre-2019, when many models were selling below retail. China was fully open then, and I’d argue that they were doing significantly better than now (and likely in the near future, given their trajectory).

[dmash]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

I assume you mean "SS ROO", not ROC.

Current model SS Rolex: Yachmaster II is far below MSRP, SkyD non-blue are barely (<10%) over MSRP + tax.

I argue that PM Rolex is a better comparison relative to AP simply b/c of relative price vs AP's offerings, irrespective of material. Except for the hottest models, nothing in the $30k+ range is holding above MSRP, and everything including the hottest models is far below early 2022. So I'm not sure if there are any AP-specfic lessons to be drawn.

lol you're pigeonholing your argument to fit your narrative. and it still doesn't equate.

you want to solely compare a gold upgraded $10-$15k watch (the most expensive iteration of said model) to a $40k stainless watch (the cheapest model). and even then it doesn't align, because the ROO is still under MSRP and the Rolex's are ALL still AT MSRP or higher.

Except for the Yachtmaster, I'll give you that one. Which has always been the notorious underseller of the entire catalog.

There is no lesson to be learned, it's just factual data points to be acknowledged.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

I don’t think a reversion to the mean is predicated on China not opening. Just look at pre-2019, when many models were selling below retail. I Chyna was fully open then, and I’d argue that they were doing significantly better than now (and likely in the near future, given their trajectory).

I haven't heard of this place? Is this the otherworldly country where watch prices are stabilized, the market will run forever and RO are selling for 3x MSRP? As it seems some guys are stuck there.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by dmash

I haven't heard of this place? Is this the otherworldly country where watch prices are stabilized, the market will run forever and RO are selling for 3x MSRP? As it seems some guys are stuck there.

Ha! The gift and the curse of dictating text! Would love to see these guys point it out on a map.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by JettyOne

AP and PP give zero fuk about the working class. Millionaire globally are still buying $20k bubbles at the clubs. The term “investment” is hated by watch collectors yet, doesn’t make it disappear. Wealthy buy watches as investments. These facts aren’t up for debate.




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Really? I am not an ultra wealthy person (I do ok) but the the wealthy folks I know, work for, work with, etc (some in the three comma club) absolutely do not buy watches as investments (many laugh when I bring it up to them). A mass produced luxury item is not an investment. There are very few rare watches that could qualify as an investment. Most APs, Rolexes, Patek, etc are not rare (just check Chrono24, Moda, etc).

[JettyOne]

Gentlemen, I’d rather not hope to see a crash of any kind. Vince, I hope you recover from the housing market you are in. Tough spot.

Psm, many many people collect watches as investments. Certainly, not everyone.

Honestly, I hope China opens its doors and pull another miracle, for the sake of the global community.

And iChina is a newly opened, upscaled restaurant in Silicon Valley. Food is so-so. If the wife dragged me to the mall, you’ll probly find me here. Bonus, Patek is right next door.



https://sf.eater.com/2022/2/16/22936...an-jose-ichina

[agsstructures]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

How many times did we hear last year guys saying they were hoping for a crash so they can buy?

Where are they now? Still scared to buy

No way, picked this up.

[Bill11783]

$51k, $57k… I’ll give ya $20k pal. Bbbbbbbaaahhhhh hhhaaaa haaaa

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Did the OP ever sell his 30k watch for 57k ?

[BrunoMalik]

Originally Posted by psm11

This 100%. I love the new ROO but not at almost $50k. They are (brand new) a $30k watch tops.

As the owner of a 43mm Taupe ROO bought at retail, i agree with this. Its overpriced at 40k. Its especially bad value when you compare it to the 41mm ROC on full bracelet at 33k retail.

Yes it does have a ceramic bezel and a lot of metal, but the 7k price is unjustified. I think retail is 10k too much. Still love it though.

On the other hand, its exceptional value when you compare it to a PP Calatrava 5226 or any Patek at retail for that matter.

If we criticize AP for hiking retail prices too fast, we have to do the same with PP. 40k for a time only calatrava? 60k for an annual calendar? 75k for a manual chrono? PP is the real money grab.


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