Funny how quick Rolex market imploded in just a year !

[GGGMT]

Any imploding still happening?


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[psm11]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Any imploding still happening?


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Yeah the panda Daytonas that were supposed to go “to the moon” since they were discontinued are back to around 30k.

[rolex_pl85]

Rolex market is still very very very soft.

Nothing moves quickly these days and even all that discontinuation hype this year everyone's had enough. That discontinued rubbish is gone out the window.

Long gone are those days with hyperinflated prices. We'll never see those days again.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by rolex_pl85

Rolex market is still very very very soft.

Nothing moves quickly these days and even all that discontinuation hype this year everyone's had enough. That discontinued rubbish is gone out the window.

Long gone are those days with hyperinflated prices. We'll never see those days again.

Yeah the whole discontinued angle didn’t really take hold and prices are back on the decline.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by rolex_pl85

Rolex market is still very very very soft.

Nothing moves quickly these days and even all that discontinuation hype this year everyone's had enough. That discontinued rubbish is gone out the window.

Long gone are those days with hyperinflated prices. We'll never see those days again.

Never? I'm guessing if QE starts again and interest rates drop to pump the market you probably will. Inflation alone will drive many steel watch prices over $100,000 in time. Never is a LONG time.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Never? I'm guessing if QE starts again and interest rates drop to pump the market you probably will. Inflation alone will drive many steel watch prices over $100,000 in time. Never is a LONG time.

The reason it will not happen again is because that level of demand was never there and was just dealers inflating the market. 50k pandas weren’t being sold to an end user. It was all smoke and mirrors.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by psm11

The reason it will not happen again is because that level of demand was never there and was just dealers inflating the market. 50k pandas weren’t being sold to an end user. It was all smoke and mirrors.

People here bought them and wore them at $50k as dumb as that seems. One guy came on here and confessed to being the buyer at the peak of the peak from DavidSW before we knew it was the peak. Many others here bought to wear at $40k to avoid it going higher.

I'm not going to name names but they are here and still own their 116500s and post pics.

It's not just a giant musical chairs grey dealer to grey dealer conspiracy. People bought to flip and flipped again for sure before trying to get top dollar from people with FOMO.

The issue is you're dealing in absolutes and even though part of what you're saying is true you're making your argument factually and provably incorrect by using those certain terms.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by EEpro

People here bought them and wore them at $50k as dumb as that seems. One guy came on here and confessed to being the buyer at the peak of the peak from DavidSW before we knew it was the peak. Many others here bought to wear at $40k to avoid it going higher.

I'm not going to name names but they are here and still own their 116500s and post pics.

It's not just a giant musical chairs grey dealer to grey dealer conspiracy. People bought to flip and flipped again for sure before trying to get top dollar from people with FOMO.

The issue is you're dealing in absolutes and even though part of what you're saying is true you're making your argument factually and provably incorrect by using those certain terms.

Yes theoretically anything is possible. Likely however…no. The cat is out of the bag at this point. Everyone knows the 2021 prices were unsustainable and many people got burned badly.

This is why all run ups on Moda lately have failed.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by psm11

Yeah the panda Daytonas that were supposed to go “to the moon” since they were discontinued are back to around 30k.

So, 2x retail. In any industry, that’s quite a premium


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[psm11]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

So, 2x retail. In any industry, that’s quite a premium


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No doubt it’s still a hefty premium but a far cry from what grey dealers have been saying was going to happen with Daytona prices.

Also, MSRP is not a real thing. No one pays MSRP for a panda Daytona even from the AD.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by psm11

Also, MSRP is not a real thing. No one pays MSRP for a panda Daytona even from the AD.

You mean because of all the other BS, jewelry, purchases, etc.? This is totally true.


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[psm11]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

You mean because of all the other BS, jewelry, purchases, etc.? This is totally true.


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Precisely.

[Rico_Brasole]

Originally Posted by EEpro

People here bought them and wore them at $50k as dumb as that seems. One guy came on here and confessed to being the buyer at the peak of the peak from DavidSW before we knew it was the peak. Many others here bought to wear at $40k to avoid it going higher.

I'm not going to name names but they are here and still own their 116500s and post pics.

It's not just a giant musical chairs grey dealer to grey dealer conspiracy. People bought to flip and flipped again for sure before trying to get top dollar from people with FOMO.

The issue is you're dealing in absolutes and even though part of what you're saying is true you're making your argument factually and provably incorrect by using those certain terms.

I think we hit a saturation point. The only people buying like that are those who have been waiting for years and years and literally cannot go another day without a watch. Those are the people paying 2x msrp which is probably (not factual) a very small group

The dominant group would be the grey to grey sales kind of highlighted by YouTube shows like Roman sharf. They NEED to keep the market falsely elevated

Just for fun I went to check out DavidSWs site, he’s still stuck in early to mid 2022 pricing


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[Swiftneck]

Originally Posted by psm11

The reason it will not happen again is because that level of demand was never there and was just dealers inflating the market. 50k pandas weren’t being sold to an end user. It was all smoke and mirrors.

Even though I agree that it won't happen again. And 50k pandas moving where few. I think there was more to it than only greys pumping up the prices.

I think the demand increased for Rolex with new customers coming into the market with free money.

They didn't buy pandas a 40k+. They bought subs at 15 from people who bought it at 7k, which made it easier for them to accept buying a gmt at 25k. The guy who was selling the gmt, then bought a panda at 40k, and so on.

I don't think many jumped right at buying 116500, 15202, and 5711 at 50-150-200k

I think more or less everybody was part of it to some degree. This is also the reason we see the prices falling slowly. Most people have to accept they bought some pieces too high. Either because they sold something at a high price or had unrealised earning at their collection.

If only a few were part of the inflated prices, the fall would have been both bigger and faster.





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[rolex_pl85]

Originally Posted by Swiftneck

I think the demand increased for Rolex with new customers coming into the market with free money.
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Not just free money - ALOT of the watch game was very closely linked to Crypto.

There was a documentary I was watching somewhere a while back that showed there were literally millions and millions being laundered through purchases of watches using crypto.

It triggered my memory as I saw a very large gray dealer in Dubai also mention this just today. It was a good way to get money out without ever being traced back and without no tax implications.

Now crypto is pretty dead and there is no 2000% profit margins happening within a 24hr period with any coins now. Its still happening but much smaller scale now.

[Swiftneck]

Originally Posted by rolex_pl85

Not just free money - ALOT of the watch game was very closely linked to Crypto.

There was a documentary I was watching somewhere a while back that showed there were literally millions and millions being laundered through purchases of watches using crypto.

It triggered my memory as I saw a very large gray dealer in Dubai also mention this just today. It was a good way to get money out without ever being traced back and without no tax implications.

Now crypto is pretty dead and there is no 2000% profit margins happening within a 24hr period with any coins now. Its still happening but much smaller scale now.

Yes, I think they played their part as well. Especially on PM and high-end pieces. Might also be a reason why these pieces took the fastest and biggest fall. Easy come easy go..

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[gmtmister]

Originally Posted by psm11

Also, MSRP is not a real thing. No one pays MSRP for a panda Daytona even from the AD.

This is not true.

I bought all at retail (panda included). I live in a small town and have known the AD for years. My father bought his watch there too, when I was young.
There are some of us who have a personal relationship and don’t have to jump through hoops to buy a watch at retail….I know I am not the only one.

I’m not saying we walk in anywhere and buy what we want, but yes. Panda at retail is a possibility.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by gmtmister

This is not true.

I bought all at retail (panda included). I live in a small town and have known the AD for years. My father bought his watch there too, when I was young.
There are some of us who have a personal relationship and don’t have to jump through hoops to buy a watch at retail….I know I am not the only one.

I’m not saying we walk in anywhere and buy what we want, but yes. Panda at retail is a possibility.

Ok, so it’s not a reality for 99 percent of us. There of course are outliers like you and your dad.