Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[dmash]

Originally Posted by 911AP

No one in that thread asked your opinion but ok....delusions are fine

speechless

[dmash]

Originally Posted by 911AP

delusions are real...must be the Cookie Monster picture

hahaha he ninja edits his post after he falsely claimed nobody asked me opinion

you need a break from the internet

[911AP]

Originally Posted by dmash

hahaha he ninja edits his post after he falsely claimed nobody asked me opinion

you need a break from the internet

It's not false. Still no one asked your opinion on price. I just decided to be nice and make a joke instead. Wasted effort though.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Hmmmm???? No panic selling? Watches dropped by more than 50% since March-April.

It took 2 years for it to gradually go up little by little. It fell like an elevator crashing to the floor.

Just to pick on the 15202st as an example. March-April I remember seeing like 5 of them on chrono24. Then 1-2 months later there were like 40. Whether they were real watches or not doesn't really matter. The amount of listing went up like 10x. That's panic selling. There was similar behavior across all the hype brands and hype watches.

To me for a market that is very lagged.....that is panic selling.

I'm wondering at this point are we looking at the same market . Assets go up like an escalator down like an elevator. Watches did exactly that.....

Don’t forget many of these pieces went up 400%. A 50% drop is still not back to pre-Covid level for some of these pieces. So no, there hasn’t been panic selling yet. When people start dumping below msrp to “just get out” then you’ll know… we’re not there yet

[Al1969]

Thanks for keeping this informative thread going dmash.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by 911AP

It's not false. Still no one asked your opinion on price. I just decided to be nice and make a joke instead. Wasted effort though.

dude just stop. seriously. do everyone a favor

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Al1969

Thanks for keeping this informative thread going dmash.

happy to help! just have to constantly deal with 911's complaining as he's lost so much on his 'investments' and it's getting tiresome

[dmash]

Originally Posted by aa909

Don’t forget many of these pieces went up 400%. A 50% drop is still not back to pre-Covid level for some of these pieces. So no, there hasn’t been panic selling yet. When people start dumping below msrp to “just get out” then you’ll know… we’re not there yet

for sure not there yet. for any market. wishful thinking for anybody to say otherwise

[Watchwoody]

Originally Posted by dmash

from non-sensical/non-explainable highs.

1 + 1 =/ 3 no matter how badly you want to be right on this topic

This.

Can’t wait to come back to this thread in a year lol

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Watchwoody

This.

Can’t wait to come back to this thread in a year lol

it's already hilarious in 2 months

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by dmash

hahaha he ninja edits his post after he falsely claimed nobody asked me opinion

you need a break from the internet

Whats your opinion on where prices are going from this point on ?

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Vince M.

Whats your opinion on where prices are going from this point on ?

If you want me to be honest (as that's all I've done in regards to this for the past couple months)........I think prices are going to stop dropping a bit to finish off the year.

but let me elaborate.

They'll hold around here +/-5or10% in one last hoorah for things to pick back up for this holidays season uptick (which is non existent and fabricated by the internet/forums). Nothing is actually going to sell, but sellers are going to stop dropping prices temporarily, unless they're desperate for cash flow. Which some (almost all backpack flippers) already are.

The real downfall will start '23. We haven't even remotely seen a return to normalcy as most SS models from Rolex/AP/PP are still above MSRP. So what if a Patek has dropped 40% in the last 2 months, it's still 100% above MSRP and absolutely absurd. So I find it amusing when people try to claim we've already seen a huge drop and it's going to stabilize.

That's my 2c. Absolutely zero reason to pull trigger on any grey timepiece right now (unless it's actually vintage/rare and you've been eyeing for a while). As EVEN IF I'm wrong and a floor is created here, prices aren't going to shoot back up. One will have plenty of time to see the action unfold. Government/crypto money is gone, it's been repeated countless times but it's just the honest truth. People aren't going to pour money into this hobby like before.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by dmash

If you want me to be honest (as that's all I've done in regards to this for the past couple months)........I think prices are going to stop dropping a bit to finish off the year.

but let me elaborate.

They'll hold around here +/-5or10% in one last hoorah for things to pick back up for this holidays season uptick (which is non existent and fabricated by the internet/forums). Nothing is actually going to sell, but sellers are going to stop dropping prices temporarily, unless they're desperate for cash flow. Which some (almost all backpack flippers) already are.

The real downfall will start '23. We haven't even remotely seen a return to normalcy as most SS models from Rolex/AP/PP are still above MSRP. So what if a Patek has dropped 40% in the last 2 months, it's still 100% above MSRP and absolutely absurd. So I find it amusing when people try to claim we've already seen a huge drop and it's going to stabilize.

That's my 2c. Absolutely zero reason to pull trigger on any grey timepiece right now (unless it's actually vintage/rare and you've been eyeing for a while). As EVEN IF I'm wrong and a floor is created here, prices aren't going to shoot back up. One will have plenty of time to see the action unfold. Government/crypto money is gone, it's been repeated countless times but it's just the honest truth. People aren't going to pour money into this hobby like before.

100% agree. We won’t see a crazy drop end of year, but think that we’ll see a slow and steady decline. 2023 prices will resume their precipitous downfall to revert to their historic mean.

The holidays and China are a red herring. Can’t wait to comment in December. Wonder what excuse the naysayers Will bring up then.

[dmash]

I honestly just want everyone who *truly* wants them to get watches. It’s all I’ve wanted since the beginning.

[Uhtred59]

Originally Posted by 911AP

delusions are real...must be the Cookie Monster picture

Not sure why you keep arguing. If you are correct the evidence will bear you out in the coming months.

[psm11]

2020 new 15202 on Moda right now for $57k.

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by dmash

If you want me to be honest (as that's all I've done in regards to this for the past couple months)........I think prices are going to stop dropping a bit to finish off the year.

but let me elaborate.

They'll hold around here +/-5or10% in one last hoorah for things to pick back up for this holidays season uptick (which is non existent and fabricated by the internet/forums). Nothing is actually going to sell, but sellers are going to stop dropping prices temporarily, unless they're desperate for cash flow. Which some (almost all backpack flippers) already are.

The real downfall will start '23. We haven't even remotely seen a return to normalcy as most SS models from Rolex/AP/PP are still above MSRP. So what if a Patek has dropped 40% in the last 2 months, it's still 100% above MSRP and absolutely absurd. So I find it amusing when people try to claim we've already seen a huge drop and it's going to stabilize.

That's my 2c. Absolutely zero reason to pull trigger on any grey timepiece right now (unless it's actually vintage/rare and you've been eyeing for a while). As EVEN IF I'm wrong and a floor is created here, prices aren't going to shoot back up. One will have plenty of time to see the action unfold. Government/crypto money is gone, it's been repeated countless times but it's just the honest truth. People aren't going to pour money into this hobby like before.

Great synopsis. I think a lot of speculators tapped out seeing the writing on the wall (especially those who play in the crypto world) plus a few backpackers dumping everything. They was I would characterize panic selling is if we don’t get the soft landing. Then, watch out!

What I am wondering about is how things will fair next year when the cumulative effects of interest rate hikes make their way into the general economy, if layoffs bleed over from the tech world into the general economy, etc. my concern is that these things will lead to a significant recession and everything will be on sale. The question is, will there be an appetite for these watches or other things?

[911AP]

Originally Posted by dmash

happy to help! just have to constantly deal with 911's complaining as he's lost so much on his 'investments' and it's getting tiresome

Actually since I bought at retail or below on them I'm up still 2-3x if I ever chose to sell....soooo haven't lost anything actually.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Actually since I bought at retail or below on them I'm up still 2-3x if I ever chose to sell....soooo haven't lost anything actually.

Not sure why you continue to egg folks on. You've made your stance clear on this thread / dmashs contributions etc.

So don't reply / read this thread and you're good and the rest of us can get back to discussing their updates (which I find more helpful).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[APWhale]

Originally Posted by dmash

I honestly just want everyone who *truly* wants them to get watches. It’s all I’ve wanted since the beginning.

Have you pulled the trigger on a black 26420SO?

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by APWhale

Have you pulled the trigger on a black 26420SO?

Of course not
That may retard his compulsion for the next 300 posts on busted MODA offerings.



@dmash @911AP

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by Turbo Racer

The question is, will there be an appetite for these watches or other things?

My opinion:

No.

The interesting thing about the last run up is a lot of regular people who never cared about watches suddenly seen that these assets can spike enormously in price during good economic times. I am not a flipper but It makes me think that in years time when the economy rebounds there is going to be a whole new group of people willing to support a nasty run up on pricing again.

I plan to hunt some very exclusive pieces that I like when things bottom out but I do think about what they will pump to on the next run up because there will be another run up.

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

100% agree. We won’t see a crazy drop end of year, but think that we’ll see a slow and steady decline. 2023 prices will resume their precipitous downfall to revert to their historic mean.

The holidays and China are a red herring. Can’t wait to comment in December. Wonder what excuse the naysayers Will bring up then.

Agree. Talked to an indie brand owner and he said they've seen a significant drop in orders over the last couple months with no real uptick for holiday. They have 2 years worth of orders already booked so nbd but he's worried next year will be really bad. I imagine AD's are basically seeing the same, not a lot of new walk-ins but they are okay for now to work down their lists but going into 2023 things sitting in AD cases should be negotiable again imho.

[Mathematoxic]

Christmas is not going to save the watch market. Investors gone at the initial crash. Now flippers have evaporated. No more hype, no more bitcoin free cash, lesser buyers, too many watches(1m from Rolex alone per year). All these only point to 1 direction.

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

Christmas is not going to save the watch market. Investors gone at the initial crash. Now flippers have evaporated. No more hype, no more bitcoin free cash, lesser buyers, too many watches(1m from Rolex alone per year). All these only point to 1 direction.

White gold subs 10k under retail, new in box, is the canary in the coal mine.

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by Vince M.

White gold subs 10k under retail, new in box, is the canary in the coal mine.

Yeah they have been selling below retail as far as 3 weeks ago. More to follow suit. 126715CHNR and 126719BLRO are the next 2 to go below(or maybe they already have gone below)

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

Yeah they have been selling below retail as far as 3 weeks ago. More to follow suit. 126715CHNR and 126719BLRO are the next 2 to go below(or maybe they already have gone below)

Except 126719BLRO with the Meteorite dial will stay at 100k. As I have one.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

100% agree. We won’t see a crazy drop end of year, but think that we’ll see a slow and steady decline. 2023 prices will resume their precipitous downfall to revert to their historic mean.

The holidays and China are a red herring. Can’t wait to comment in December. Wonder what excuse the naysayers Will bring up then.

Agree on both counts. (1) greys may hold prices firm through holidays but they will be stuck with the inventory heading into 2023. (2) Consensus from financial analysts is China reopening won’t begin in earnest until April 2023, and even then it will be slooooooow. So China coming back on line in a meaningful way is probably a late 2023 or 2024 story at best.

Add the evisceration of the crypto bros, flippers and hype buyers and 2023 will be a better year for collectors.

[Benzsiam]

Originally Posted by Vince M.

Except 126719BLRO with the Meteorite dial will stay at 100k. As I have one.

WG GMT 126719BLRO Meteorite dial already down to $52K.

I think only YG Daytona green dial, all other PMs with Meteorite dial will maintain above MSRP.

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by Vince M.

My opinion:

No.

The interesting thing about the last run up is a lot of regular people who never cared about watches suddenly seen that these assets can spike enormously in price during good economic times. I am not a flipper but It makes me think that in years time when the economy rebounds there is going to be a whole new group of people willing to support a nasty run up on pricing again.

I plan to hunt some very exclusive pieces that I like when things bottom out but I do think about what they will pump to on the next run up because there will be another run up.

Makes sense. I am also patiently waiting on some pieces as well. Every week prices seem to drop a bit more and then boom someone lists a watch much lower than ever and then that becomes the new price point.

I actually sold a nautilus in February and couldn’t be happier with that deal. And in retrospect, glad I didn’t dither about that decision.