Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by Vince M.

Except 126719BLRO with the Meteorite dial will stay at 100k. As I have one.

Hey mate these are still rising. On the way to 200k now!
Cheers!

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by Benzsiam

WG GMT 126719BLRO Meteorite dial already down to $52K.

I think only YG Daytona green dial, all other PMs with Meteorite dial will maintain above MSRP.

I totally agree.

Originally Posted by Turbo Racer

Makes sense. I am also patiently waiting on some pieces as well. Every week prices seem to drop a bit more and then boom someone lists a watch much lower than ever and then that becomes the new price point.

I actually sold a nautilus in February and couldn’t be happier with that deal. And in retrospect, glad I didn’t dither about that decision.

Smart move selling in February.

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

Hey mate these are still rising. On the way to 200k now!
Cheers!

200k or bust !!

[RichardBartlett]

Most will maintain above retail except the usual unloved suspects which traditionally stayed in the display window unwanted They will go below retail as they normally were. IMHO.

I don't think the recession will last long enough to completely get back to the 'good old days'

[GGGMT]

Watches remain a great investment and asset class!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[psm11]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

Watches remain a great investment and asset class!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

How? Sure you may get a piece at retail that is worth 5x retail but how much other things did you have to buy that lose their value to get it? If you had to spend 100k on things that depreciate to 25k but you got a watch at retail that is worth 50k above MSRP on the open market you are still at a loss.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Participated (online) at the HK Antiquorum auction today. So many lots passed. I have finally not bought what I expected because, it shows that there will be more pressure on prices even for more collectible/vintage pieces.
Keeping my money to find better watches next auction round in 2023. :)

[Incroyable12]

The recent chaos in China isn't helping.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

The recent chaos in China isn't helping.

It looks like people are seriously limiting discretionary expenses even if christmas is close.

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

It looks like people are seriously limiting discretionary expenses even if christmas is close.

There's also tons of online dissent and protest which is highly unusual for China.

[Crown & Shield]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

Participated (online) at the HK Antiquorum auction today. So many lots passed. I have finally not bought what I expected because, it shows that there will be more pressure on prices even for more collectible/vintage pieces.
Keeping my money to find better watches next auction round in 2023. :)

That auction was a disaster. I notice that even models like the 6234 or the 6238 that have been relatively spared by the recent boom/hype did poorly.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Crown & Shield

That auction was a disaster. I notice that even models like the 6234 or the 6238 that have been relatively spared by the recent boom/hype did poorly.

It has to be noted that buyers from Japan had a falling purchasing power due to the yen.

Also, now the rumors which is floating is a de-peging of the HKD.

https://twitter.com/BillAckman/statu...69030798139395

This would shake even more the watch market for sure...

[Crown & Shield]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

It has to be noted that buyers from Japan had a falling purchasing power due to the yen.

Also, now the rumors which is floating is a de-peging of the HKD.

https://twitter.com/BillAckman/statu...69030798139395

This would shake even more the watch market for sure...

Indeed, not the best of times for Hong Kong -or China-.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

It has to be noted that buyers from Japan had a falling purchasing power due to the yen.

Also, now the rumors which is floating is a de-peging of the HKD.

https://twitter.com/BillAckman/statu...69030798139395

This would shake even more the watch market for sure...

Ackman is a clown. any billionaire hedge fund owner who publicly discusses their positions and strategies on twitter is never up to any good

could end up happening, but the fact that he started this rumor by tweeting an opinion piece feels sus. this is the same guy who bought 3 million shares of netflix at ~400 and sold for a 40% loss

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by huncho

Ackman is a clown. any billionaire hedge fund owner who publicly discusses their positions and strategies on twitter is never up to any good

could end up happening, but the fact that he started this rumor by tweeting an opinion piece feels sus. this is the same guy who bought 3 million shares of netflix at ~400 and sold for a 40% loss

100% he is the epitome of a pump'n'dump guy. For me, he is not a clown but a danger (as he is actively censoring the web).

My poor English skills make my message confusing, sorry. I was of course not promoting a trade. :)

I only wanted to highlight that when such a fresh news is floating in the HK air, with all the layers of issues (threats) already known, it does not encourage locals on discretionary expenses.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by huncho

Ackman is a clown. any billionaire hedge fund owner who publicly discusses their positions and strategies on twitter is never up to any good

could end up happening, but the fact that he started this rumor by tweeting an opinion piece feels sus. this is the same guy who bought 3 million shares of netflix at ~400 and sold for a 40% loss

I wouldn’t call him a clown, but rather a deceitful, manipulative fraud. If he’s out pumping a “story” then you know he’s already taken a position and doing his damn best to scare folks.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

100% he is the epitome of a pump'n'dump guy. For me, he is not a clown but a danger (as he is actively censoring the web).

Actually it was not promoting a trade. :)

I only wanted to highlight that when such a fresh news is floating in the HK air, with all the layers of issues (threats) already known, it does not encourage locals on discretionary expenses.

yeah i know you weren't promoting the tweet or his trade. to your point though, i think by now the whole "just wait for china to open" thing is a meme. clearly whatever's going on there is not temporary and looking like it's only gonna get worse

Originally Posted by aa909

I wouldn’t call him a clown, but rather a deceitful, manipulative fraud. If he’s out pumping a “story” then you know he’s already taken a position and doing his damn best to scare folks.

it's unfortunate that he can be so blatant about it and nothing will be done lol

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by huncho

clearly whatever's going on there is not temporary and looking like it's only gonna get worse

There is one element that "fascinates" me (because it is not understood of its consequences) is the return of "Common Prosperity" during the 20th Congress of the CCP.

I think this will impact massively the watch (luxury) market... in the long term (like when they hardened the anti-corruption laws). Because even if the economy gets better, owning luxury/status pieces will be an issue. But also, the family, kids or mistress will not be allowed to flex anymore.

There were too many scandals (mainland, HK, abroad), so the CCDI (Central Commission for Discipline Inspection) wants to get ride of them and now they have full endorsement.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Today's auctions (Christie's) were ok on really nice pieces.

https://www.christies.com/en/auction...-part-i-29710/
https://www.christies.com/en/auction...hmaking-29888/

Being Rolex, AP or PP is not enough. Real rarity and real quality are back. :)

The times of lots sold at x2.5 the max estimates whatever the watch are over.

[aa909]

seeing watches that have been posted on TRF (and gone unsold) now posted on MODA for less...

[fatcows7]

https://www.watchcollecting.com/for-...uet-code-11-59

11:59 went for £15k. Retail is £30k...

[Crown & Shield]

Originally Posted by fatcows7

https://www.watchcollecting.com/for-...uet-code-11-59

11:59 went for £15k. Retail is £30k...

Still way overpriced for such an ugly watch.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Crown & Shield

Still way overpriced for such an ugly watch.

At that price the Code definitely appeals to me. I sometimes think that it didn't get a fair shake due to it being shoved down a lot of prospective buyers throats (when they had no interest in it) by ADs as a gateway to a RO.

[RichardBartlett]

Originally Posted by Crown & Shield

Still way overpriced for such an ugly watch.

that's obviously subjective. personally I think it's ok .

[youthagainsttt]

Almost 6 months after the last post, it seems not much has changed with AP. Certainly in HK Rolex prices are very resilient and recently with China opening up, prices on the rise again particularly for Rollies

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by youthagainsttt

Almost 6 months after the last post, it seems not much has changed with AP. Certainly in HK Rolex prices are very resilient and recently with China opening up, prices on the rise again particularly for Rollies

What are you seeing with AP exactly?

[taitun4life]

Originally Posted by Watchwoody

This is spot on.

100% spot on

[youthagainsttt]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

What are you seeing with AP exactly?

Prices are still quite low and not rising steadily like other brands (Rolex, Cartier, Patek etc)