SUBMARINER DATE 1973-2010 = 8.3% increase/YR

[RBR76]

A pre-owned Sub Date matt dial i saw at a dealer costs twice the price of the 16610.

The next vintage star will be the Pepsi (blue/red) bezel GMT Master with matt dial. I saw this watch (2 in fact) at a dealer and he wasn't even willing to sell it. Probably waiting for the price to raise further. "Not for sale at the moment" was his reply.

[moby33]

Originally Posted by paddy_crow

For me, the time to buy a SubC is...

Never.

Brilliant post! (yep...spoken w/ extreme sarcasm )

[BQueenan]

Originally Posted by Darlinboy

Compared to average US earnings:
Year Index Sub Price % of income
1973 $7,580 $385 5.08%
1975 $8,631 $470 5.45%
1977 $9,779 $585 5.98%
1978 $10,556 $875 8.29%
1980 $12,513 $950 7.59%
1982 $14,531 $1,175 8.09%
1984 $16,135 $1,325 8.21%
1986 $17,322 $1,575 9.09%
1988 $19,334 $1,975 10.22%
1989 $20,100 $2,500 12.44%
1992 $22,935 $2,850 12.43%
1996 $25,914 $3,350 12.93%
2003 $34,065 $4,250 12.48%
2005 $36,953 $4,525 12.25%
2006 $38,651 $5,175 13.39%
2008 $41,335 $5,850 14.15%
2009 $40,712 $6,000 14.74%

Costs around 3X as much based on average earnings... and rising.

I think this says it all. Rolex is trying to price itself out of the hands of the ordinary person. They seem to have lost sight of the reason they became so popular in the first place. It will of course be at there own expense, because I can't see them selling one million watches a year if this trend continues.

[sond86]

Good info. Has anyone calculated the 2010,11,12 increases ?

[jorgemussi]

i wish i had a time machine man...

[sond86]

Ill try adding them in:


STAINLESS SUBMARINER DATE

retail price



1973 $385

1975 $470

1977 $585

1978 $875

1980 $950

1982 $1175

1984 $1325

1986 $1575

1988 $1975

1989 $2500

1992 $2850

1996 $3350

2004 $4250

2005 $4525

2006 $5175

2008 $5850

2009 $6000

2010 $7250

2010 $7375


*******************

*Was there an increase between $7375 to $8000?

2011 $8000

2012 $8550

*************************


8.3% AVG INCREASE PER YEAR

(since 1973)





PROJECTIONS

(based upon 8.3% historical average annual increase)



2015 $10987 [in 5 years]

2020 $16369 [in 10 years]

2025 $24388 [in 15 years]

2030 $36335 [in 20 years]

[sea-dweller]

Interesting post!

[ronbo710]

... I remember seeing a Paul Newman vintage Daytona for around $12000 in 1990 and thinking that was crazy. OY -Ron

[Tudor66]

I was gettIng ready to post one of my submariners for sale- my decision has been delayed because if this post...!

Thanks

[Eulogy]

The percentage of my salary it would take to buy a new sub is the same now as it was when I started work 27 years ago.

So maybe it is all relative?

[mlotus95]

great post

[Brian J]

Originally Posted by Darlinboy

Compared to average US earnings:
Year Index Sub Price % of income
1973 $7,580 $385 5.08%
1975 $8,631 $470 5.45%
1977 $9,779 $585 5.98%
1978 $10,556 $875 8.29%
1980 $12,513 $950 7.59%
1982 $14,531 $1,175 8.09%
1984 $16,135 $1,325 8.21%
1986 $17,322 $1,575 9.09%
1988 $19,334 $1,975 10.22%
1989 $20,100 $2,500 12.44%
1992 $22,935 $2,850 12.43%
1996 $25,914 $3,350 12.93%
2003 $34,065 $4,250 12.48%
2005 $36,953 $4,525 12.25%
2006 $38,651 $5,175 13.39%
2008 $41,335 $5,850 14.15%
2009 $40,712 $6,000 14.74%

Costs around 3X as much based on average earnings... and rising.

wow. Thanks for posting

[Gary Busey]

Originally Posted by bayerische

Well the inflation of the pricing must stop IMHO....

Rolex is indeed getting into the price range of the ultra-high-end. Not much more $$ anymore for a Blancpain, Patek, Lange etc...

Of course I love Rolex, but it's getting kinda expensive if this continues. Can't think Rolex can keep up the sales volume either if the price of a sub moves from $4250 in 2004 to $7375 in 2010! That's an increase of over 70% in the last 6! years.

This continuing would make the sub $12.500 in 2016. IMHO it's too much. It's darn expensive already. The economy isn't growing at the same rate as Rolex's pricing. Atleast not mine!

too much?? that means nothing. everything is relative to inflation. google weimar.
if its 12500 and inflation is -5%, then yes. if its 12500 and inflation is 100$ p/a, then no

[Brushpup]

Originally Posted by Gary Busey

too much?? that means nothing. everything is relative to inflation. google weimar.
if its 12500 and inflation is -5%, then yes. if its 12500 and inflation is 100$ p/a, then no

Maybe for a big movie star such as yourself!

All kidding aside, I see your quote and we are talking Rolex money...what is your goal with the "Rolex Fund" ?

[Mephist]

Originally Posted by Maxtor

Based on your data I think the time to buy a Sub was 1973.

Time-travel!!! Be back in a sec

If this is correct then buying pre-owned Rolex's will be a great investment. Wean I think about it I still have never lost money on any of the Rolex's I have sold. That is including shipping and everything.

[Darmapow]

Speaking as someone who has chased the price rises for 20 or so years and finally achieved my goal this year. The key to Rolex/sub is that it's an aspirational piece. Those people like me who have wanted one for years will always pull the trigger as soon as they are able regardless of price.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[drockadam]

Those prices make me sick.

I really wish I could afford a Submariner!

[tfduff723]

Interesting statistics - thanks for posting.

[karmatp]

And all those years they were selling the same exact watch. Rip off

[zion_rasta]

Originally Posted by bayerische

Well the inflation of the pricing must stop IMHO....

Rolex is indeed getting into the price range of the ultra-high-end. Not much more $$ anymore for a Blancpain, Patek, Lange etc...

Of course I love Rolex, but it's getting kinda expensive if this continues. Can't think Rolex can keep up the sales volume either if the price of a sub moves from $4250 in 2004 to $7375 in 2010! That's an increase of over 70% in the last 6! years.

This continuing would make the sub $12.500 in 2016. IMHO it's too much. It's darn expensive already. The economy isn't growing at the same rate as Rolex's pricing. Atleast not mine!

Supply / Demand, that determines whether the price increase levels... Rolexes are fine machines, and as far as I know they do not depreciate.

That is why it is all about the watch, not your car....

[Gary Busey]

Originally Posted by Brushpup

Maybe for a big movie star such as yourself!

All kidding aside, I see your quote and we are talking Rolex money...what is your goal with the "Rolex Fund" ?

i squandered that money on a road bike and cocaine. So the updated amount is 0$. But my goal is a sub nd, of course.

GB

[Bulldurham08]

Awesome post and terribly depressing all at the same time...ouch.

[Hairdude1]

Thanks for sharing!!!

[herbalt]

Originally Posted by Darmapow

Speaking as someone who has chased the price rises for 20 or so years and finally achieved my goal this year. The key to Rolex/sub is that it's an aspirational piece. Those people like me who have wanted one for years will always pull the trigger as soon as they are able regardless of price.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think this is very well put.

[mmmk604]

Originally Posted by bayerische

Well the inflation of the pricing must stop IMHO....

Rolex is indeed getting into the price range of the ultra-high-end. Not much more $$ anymore for a Blancpain, Patek, Lange etc...

Of course I love Rolex, but it's getting kinda expensive if this continues. Can't think Rolex can keep up the sales volume either if the price of a sub moves from $4250 in 2004 to $7375 in 2010! That's an increase of over 70% in the last 6! years.

This continuing would make the sub $12.500 in 2016. IMHO it's too much. It's darn expensive already. The economy isn't growing at the same rate as Rolex's pricing. Atleast not mine!

You have to remember inflation affects everything else in this world as well.
We'll be spending more money on food, clothing, gas, etc.
Hopefully our salaries will keep up

[wokafu]

this is a horror show !!

[flyinbrian]

I think there should also be demand figured into these numbers. I mean numbers sold and what people perceive as a value to them is very important.

[Robbie68]

Originally Posted by Maxtor

Based on your data I think the time to buy a Sub was 1973.

Yeah but you could also buy three wives, six mules, eight barrels of molasses and two tickets to the opera for ten dollars.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Eulogy

The percentage of my salary it would take to buy a new sub is the same now as it was when I started work 27 years ago.

So maybe it is all relative?

Not a bad analogy. The Rolex marketing machine knows where to put their emphasis - it is a luxury item and "mark to market" would indicate the target audience can afford to pay their prices.

Originally Posted by drockadam

Those prices make me sick.

I really wish I could afford a Submariner!

It's just the MSRP rising - the best thing is to outpace the price ramp of getting one BNIB from an AD, or buy pre-owned and get a better deal.

BTW - the OP and several others noted an 8%+ CAGR for the Sub Date MSRP...care to guess the CAGR of a cup of coffee over the same period? It's 11.12%

And if you like Starbucks latte's instead, then the CAGR is 13.34%

[firstOwatch]

Rolex family owners are laughing at Rolex wearers