Starving the market to put greys under

[tamiya]

Originally Posted by Shaky

It’s all a very strange state of affairs and i would like to think there is some sort of master plan but I am not sure there is.

Weird thing is... similar thing is happening to a few of my other hobbies too

New product is announced at various trade shows and of course news spreads instantly nowadays. Come time that the item is shipped... I can't buy what I want because the local shops haven't got stock or only a measly handful.

Previously used to mailorder from overseas (often arrives cheaper & faster than local shops) but then HQ supposedly cracks down on grey exporters. Mailorder sellers either lose supply or don't get enough to cover preorders.

Sigh... now I can't get my toys both local nor mailorder...

[Shaky]

Originally Posted by tamiya

Weird thing is... similar thing is happening to a few of my other hobbies too

New product is announced at various trade shows and of course news spreads instantly nowadays. Come time that the item is shipped... I can't buy what I want because the local shops haven't got stock or only a measly handful.

Previously used to mailorder from overseas (often arrives cheaper & faster than local shops) but then HQ supposedly cracks down on grey exporters. Mailorder sellers either lose supply or don't get enough to cover preorders.

Sigh... now I can't get my toys both local nor mailorder...

Nothing surprises me anymore. Think the whole worlds going crazy !

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by AK797

Except that they haven't managed inventory carefully at all, rather Rolex are claiming they have sold out a few months early for the year due to overwhelming demand. So if you believe this, that they have no allocation control and distribution discipline, they just love to feed us fat kids cake, and yet the D500 and new Basel's are released at a very careful snail's pace. It just does not add up, these are not efficient market practices, and in the UK it has led to a lot of customer resentment and hostile AD atmospheres which even Rolex have acknowledged is hurting the AD experience not enhancing it and so fuelling the grey market even with their higher prices.

I've always said on one model you can manipulate the market to create hype and exclusivity as we have on the D500, that helps the brand overall and creates minimum frustration, but when that spreads to the top seven selling SS watches which are never in windows, as has been the case for over a year in the UK, then something has gone wrong somewhere with the company. I suspect when this is the case for a few long months in the US all those thinking Rolex are marketing geniuses will change their tune.

Great points Neil and got me thinking.

Is it Rolex themselves that are saying they have sold out early, or is it certain AD's either making that assumption (or using that line to cover for something else?)

Maybe Rolex have said to their AD network to stop selling certain references to just anyone off the street to try and prevent immediate flips to the GM. My local GM bricks and mortar dealer is really well stocked just now with hard to get models at over MRSP but sensible prices. They get a lot of their BNIB inventory from flippers or speculators and some via the watch trade, not directly from ADs out the back door as is often (incorrectly I believe) stated on here.

There is however some inventory out there. We've had incommings of very hard to get references from UK members on here over the past few months (myself included) with the exception of the Daytona. And this forum's membership probably represents only a very small minority of Rolex buyers, so extrapolate those numbers and maybe its not quite as bad as we think it is?

I got my SD43 in September after just 12 weeks. Stickered, tags, card, unsized, coffin the lot. Could have walked down the street and made £2,500 in 5 minutes if i'd wanted. Others have had similar. And yet some can't get them at all. Nairn just picked up a D - Blue from a different but still "local" AD (albeit destickered and sized). I've seen LVC and BLNR UK incommings here and on other forums.

Maybe we were just lucky. Or maybe we were whitelisted customers (if indeed such a thing exists?) When I picked up my SD I cheekily enquired if D500's were still impossible to get, and rather than the usual dismissive response we often hear it was more along the lines of "if you are serious let me know and I'll see what we can do" This was the same response I've had in the past when he's been able to come good for me.

There's no doubt that AD relationships count for a lot (one of the other city centre ADs I pop into wouldn't even add me to a list for the SD43)

Sadly, I suspect we'll never know and all we can do is speculate.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Devildog

Great points Neil and got me thinking.

Is it Rolex themselves that are saying they have sold out early, or is it certain AD's either making that assumption (or using that line to cover for something else?)

Maybe Rolex have said to their AD network to stop selling certain references to just anyone off the street to try and prevent immediate flips to the GM. My local GM bricks and mortar dealer is really well stocked just now with hard to get models at over MRSP but sensible prices. They get a lot of their BNIB inventory from flippers or speculators and some via the watch trade, not directly from ADs out the back door as is often (incorrectly I believe) stated on here.

There is however some inventory out there. We've had incommings of very hard to get references from UK members on here over the past few months (myself included) with the exception of the Daytona. And this forum's membership probably represents only a very small minority of Rolex buyers, so extrapolate those numbers and maybe its not quite as bad as we think it is?

I got my SD43 in September after just 12 weeks. Stickered, tags, card, unsized, coffin the lot. Could have walked down the street and made £2,500 in 5 minutes if i'd wanted. Others have had similar. And yet some can't get them at all. Nairn just picked up a D - Blue from a different but still "local" AD (albeit destickered and sized). I've seen LVC and BLNR UK incommings here and on other forums.

Maybe we were just lucky. Or maybe we were whitelisted customers (if indeed such a thing exists?) When I picked up my SD I cheekily enquired if D500's were still impossible to get, and rather than the usual dismissive response we often hear it was more along the lines of "if you are serious let me know and I'll see what we can do" This was the same response I've had in the past when he's been able to come good for me.

There's no doubt that AD relationships count for a lot (one of the other city centre ADs I pop into wouldn't even add me to a list for the SD43)

Sadly, I suspect we'll never know and all we can do is speculate.

I believe it is Rolex who have dictated this line to ADs as we have had a number of different ADs repeat this same sold out spiel to customers who are also members here. I don't think ADs do that much independently other than the usual BS sales pitches, and certainly not in the UK any more, which includes ADs selling directly to Greys, they did happily at first in a nice profit sharing scheme, but now they are scared to death of Rolex, so most of Watchfinder's watches and the others will be flipper's selling.

[haberdashery]

Originally Posted by AK797

Except that they haven't managed inventory carefully at all, rather Rolex are claiming they have sold out a few months early for the year due to overwhelming demand. So if you believe this, that they have no allocation control and distribution discipline, they just love to feed us fat kids cake, and yet the D500 and new Basel's are released at a very careful snail's pace. It just does not add up, these are not efficient market practices, and in the UK it has led to a lot of customer resentment and hostile AD atmospheres which even Rolex have acknowledged is hurting the AD experience not enhancing it and so fuelling the grey market even with their higher prices.

I've always said on one model you can manipulate the market to create hype and exclusivity as we have on the D500, that helps the brand overall and creates minimum frustration, but when that spreads to the top seven selling SS watches which are never in windows, as has been the case for over a year in the UK, then something has gone wrong somewhere with the company. I suspect when this is the case for a few long months in the US all those thinking Rolex are marketing geniuses will change their tune.

Rolex UK would beg to differ: http://www.watchpro.com/research-pin...-retailers-uk/

"Rolex Watch Company Limited, the UK subsidiary of the Swiss watchmaker, reported sales of £268 million in 2016, a 41% rise over 2015, as the post-Brexit crash in the value of the pound created the massive differential in prices."

Sports models just don't make up the bulk of Rolex's sales. So while we all get hung up about it and miffed, the average Rolex buyer doesn't care, or even know that anything beyond a Datejust is actually 'a thing'.

FWIW, I picked up two hard to find SS models in October from an AD I've done some business with. I was surprised I was able to buy them both at the same time. One of them was a 116500.

I had a good chat with the guy, who's also the manager at that store, and he said supply isn't any different than it was before - and they still receive a full restock of the range every X period (he told me what it was, but in case it's store specific, I'll omit that bit from my post).

He said two main factors have created the illusion of further, constrained supply:

- huge demand from overseas customers, looking to buy while the pound is in the doldrums
- a big drive from Rolex to get ADs to ensure they're selling to established customers, to try and ensure watches don't end up on Watchfinder or <insert the name of grey dealer of your choice>

He said it's very much as they were before in terms of supply - but they're now trying to satisfy demand of a pool of customers that doubled/tripled/quadrupled overnight when the Brexit vote results were announced, and GBP tanked.

This particular store has a list for practically every SS model - even black Submariners and the black GMT, they never make it to the window.

Whether we like it or not, a Rolex isn't just a watch. For some people, right or wrongly, it's an investment - for others, it's a quick flip for a few thousand pounds of profit. A large section of the range is hot, hot, hot right now - and that's why as enthusiasts we're finding it hard to source the models we want, when we want them.

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by haberdashery

Rolex UK would beg to differ: http://www.watchpro.com/research-pin...-retailers-uk/

"Rolex Watch Company Limited, the UK subsidiary of the Swiss watchmaker, reported sales of £268 million in 2016, a 41% rise over 2015, as the post-Brexit crash in the value of the pound created the massive differential in prices."

Sports models just don't make up the bulk of Rolex's sales. So while we all get hung up about it and miffed, the average Rolex buyer doesn't care, or even know that anything beyond a Datejust is actually 'a thing'.

FWIW, I picked up two hard to find SS models in October from an AD I've done some business with. I was surprised I was able to buy them both at the same time. One of them was a 116500.

I had a good chat with the guy, who's also the manager at that store, and he said supply isn't any different than it was before - and they still receive a full restock of the range every X period (he told me what it was, but in case it's store specific, I'll omit that bit from my post).

He said two main factors have created the illusion of further, constrained supply:

- huge demand from overseas customers, looking to buy while the pound is in the doldrums
- a big drive from Rolex to get ADs to ensure they're selling to established customers, to try and ensure watches don't end up on Watchfinder or <insert the name of grey dealer of your choice>

He said it's very much as they were before in terms of supply - but they're now trying to satisfy demand of a pool of customers that doubled/tripled/quadrupled overnight when the Brexit vote results were announced, and GBP tanked.

This particular store has a list for practically every SS model - even black Submariners and the black GMT, they never make it to the window.

Whether we like it or not, a Rolex isn't just a watch. For some people, right or wrongly, it's an investment - for others, it's a quick flip for a few thousand pounds of profit. A large section of the range is hot, hot, hot right now - and that's why as enthusiasts we're finding it hard to source the models we want, when we want them.

The raw figures alone quoted are far from the whole picture.

Sales may well have been up in the 12 months to December 2016 from the previous year but so were the cost of sales. A 41% increase in sales only resulted in a 6$ increase in gros sprofit. Rolex UK's purchase costs from Rolex SA increased by roughly 50% over the prior year. That was probably casued to a fair extent by GBP dropping like a stone against CHF throughout 2016.

There's no question that foriegn buyers have been buying more of the UK stock allocation as its been cost effective to vist the UK to do so.

But more imporatantly, Rolex sales may have been up for 2016, but its in the current year, 2017, that we've seen what we perceive to be the real shortages of SS sports stock, not 2016.

2017's figures, being the relevent ones, will be really interesting to see.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by haberdashery

Rolex UK would beg to differ: http://www.watchpro.com/research-pin...-retailers-uk/

"Rolex Watch Company Limited, the UK subsidiary of the Swiss watchmaker, reported sales of £268 million in 2016, a 41% rise over 2015, as the post-Brexit crash in the value of the pound created the massive differential in prices."

Sports models just don't make up the bulk of Rolex's sales. So while we all get hung up about it and miffed, the average Rolex buyer doesn't care, or even know that anything beyond a Datejust is actually 'a thing'.

FWIW, I picked up two hard to find SS models in October from an AD I've done some business with. I was surprised I was able to buy them both at the same time. One of them was a 116500.

I had a good chat with the guy, who's also the manager at that store, and he said supply isn't any different than it was before - and they still receive a full restock of the range every X period (he told me what it was, but in case it's store specific, I'll omit that bit from my post).

He said two main factors have created the illusion of further, constrained supply:

- huge demand from overseas customers, looking to buy while the pound is in the doldrums
- a big drive from Rolex to get ADs to ensure they're selling to established customers, to try and ensure watches don't end up on Watchfinder or <insert the name of grey dealer of your choice>

He said it's very much as they were before in terms of supply - but they're now trying to satisfy demand of a pool of customers that doubled/tripled/quadrupled overnight when the Brexit vote results were announced, and GBP tanked.

This particular store has a list for practically every SS model - even black Submariners and the black GMT, they never make it to the window.

Whether we like it or not, a Rolex isn't just a watch. For some people, right or wrongly, it's an investment - for others, it's a quick flip for a few thousand pounds of profit. A large section of the range is hot, hot, hot right now - and that's why as enthusiasts we're finding it hard to source the models we want, when we want them.

My friend, you are a year out of date, this was the argument why Rolex had low stock LAST YEAR. The fact is that they have not adequately replenished stock in 11 months now, and I and many members here have talked to many ADs who have all said their Rolex supply is far lower than last year pre-Brexit. I was recently at the new Fraser Hart grand boutique that opened to great fanfare and even they have no popular SS and they even told me they get 2/3 D500s a year.

Yes they are trying to sell to locals only but that is a more recent policy. And for the last few months we have been hearing how supply is low in many countries, even the USA is feeling it now and in the run up to Xmas their busiest time! and they all have no Brexit currency issues so that is all a cover story. Most likely they have had some major production issues or are preparing for a significant Basel showing.

[Spartacus]

Rolex would need to remove ADs/AD model to really hurt the grey market.

Rolex is far to big to do this, I think AP however is working on it.

[SpeedyTuomas]

To mee it looks that like only gray dealers have watches on stock! Rolex needs to pull their heads out of their ****s imo, I got tired of not getting any of the watches I ordered and canceled my orders. Fun fact: only a very small fragment of Rolex models are hard to get / hyped / remotely interesting.

[Beowulf]

Originally Posted by SpeedyTuomas

I got tired of not getting any of the watches I ordered and canceled my orders. Fun fact: only a very small fragment of Rolex models are hard to get / hyped / remotely interesting.

I'm an inch away from doing that. Emailed the grey seller where I have my order this morning and they replied "Trying to find out if we can have it this week, I'll update you soon". Almost 3 months for a SubC Date, nonsense.

I'm waiting another 4 days and after that I'm going to cancel and just throw the Rolex cash at something wilder. Maybe add some crypto currency to the portfolio. Just like the watches, it seems made of vapor.

[marv_lopez12]

It just depends, but they depend on the consumer more than anything.

[HogwldFLTR]

How about this possibility? Rolex is trying to eliminate sales of stainless watches that are in competition with their precious metal watches. Using them only as loss leaders to get their consumers to buy the PM watches. No lack in availability of PM pieces afaik. Rolex has chosen to focus their manufacturing efforts where they can get the most bang for the buck going after the higher market tier. They don't care if there are people dying to buy their bargain stainless watches. That's not their problem. They could take the attitude that if the consumer wants Rolex watches let them pay for PM. The brand might have enough clout to pull that off.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by HogwldFLTR

How about this possibility? Rolex is trying to eliminate sales of stainless watches that are in competition with their precious metal watches. Using them only as loss leaders to get their consumers to buy the PM watches. No lack in availability of PM pieces afaik. Rolex has chosen to focus their manufacturing efforts where they can get the most bang for the buck going after the higher market tier. They don't care if there are people dying to buy their bargain stainless watches. That's not their problem. They could take the attitude that if the consumer wants Rolex watches let them pay for PM. The brand might have enough clout to pull that off.

I'm pretty certain that SS watches, esp the more popular ones, are more profitable than the popular PM ones. The turnover rate of SS is greater than the extra margin the PMs bring in, I think actually by a considerable amount, from observing AD stock, and I believe the PMs are there principally to give wealthier customers more choice and Rolex that extra touch of glitz and glamour without having to actually do the hard watch-crafting yards of Haute Horology.

[asiparks]

Rolex may have "sold out" of their steel models for this year, so those who won't accept anything other than a Rolex will wait months, (or pay over to get it from a grey), but some customers will soon start looking at what they can get instead of a Rolex...the AD's I've been in, keen to make a sale, have no hesitation steering me towards some very attractive alternatives from Omega, IWC, Blancpain, AP VC etc.

So while this supply clusterfudge might be an effort to bolster the brand value, it will also piss a lot of potential customers off and make them look a little more closely at other options.

[stevedssd]

Originally Posted by asiparks

Rolex may have "sold out" of their steel models for this year, so those who won't accept anything other than a Rolex will wait months, (or pay over to get it from a grey), but some customers will soon start looking at what they can get instead of a Rolex...the AD's I've been in, keen to make a sale, have no hesitation steering me towards some very attractive alternatives from Omega, IWC, Blancpain, AP VC etc.

So while this supply clusterfudge might be an effort to bolster the brand value, it will also piss a lot of potential customers off and make them look a little more closely at other options.

Yep, thanks to the UK SS Sports farce I bought my first Omega, love it and it won't be my last

[Smarties]

You can't force people to buy what they don't want. People will eventually tired of the waiting game and look for something else. If they play this game long enough, end up nobody wins.

[Andad]

Spoke to an AD recently.

Quite a character and he takes no prisoners.

He will only sell the hard to get models to customers who have done long term business with him but he has not received much in the way of 'wanted' models.

He showed me a D blue but that was all he had in 'those' models.

He only sells at Rolex retail.

He would not entertain allowing grey dealers to make money on his stock.

For him the issues simply came down to lack of supply.

[Andad]

Read you watch pro link?

Rolex does not allow its authorised retailers to sell online. If it did, customers in France would immediately be able to save €692 when buying a Rolex Submariner ref. 114060 from a UK retailer at today’s exchange rate of 1.13 euros to the pound.

Can you explain how a potential buyer in France can buy a Rolex 114060 non stock item in the UK?

[haberdashery]

Originally Posted by directioneng

Read you watch pro link?

Rolex does not allow its authorised retailers to sell online. If it did, customers in France would immediately be able to save €692 when buying a Rolex Submariner ref. 114060 from a UK retailer at today’s exchange rate of 1.13 euros to the pound.

Can you explain how a potential buyer in France can buy a Rolex 114060 non stock item in the UK?

Read the line below? Where I wrote:

"Sports models just don't make up the bulk of Rolex's sales. So while we all get hung up about it and miffed, the average Rolex buyer doesn't care, or even know that anything beyond a Datejust is actually 'a thing'."

If they ran out of Datejusts, then I think the statement below would hold water:

"Except that they haven't managed inventory carefully at all, rather Rolex are claiming they have sold out a few months early for the year due to overwhelming demand. So if you believe this, that they have no allocation control and distribution discipline"

But as the majority of the watches we covet aren't their top sellers, or likely designed to be top sellers, I don't think we can really say anything about their allocation control and distribution discipline.

Personally, I don't think Rolex have run out of SS watches at all. They're so tight lipped as a company, wild rumours and Chinese whispers are taken as gospel and blown out of all proportion.

[Devildog]

PS - if anyone is intersted, the 2016 accounts are freely and publicly available here

https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/d...2FoolZWV0AU%3D