The real reason for the SS shortage: No real competition in the SS market

[ct.matt]

Breitling drove me to Omega, Omega drove me to Rolex, Rolex drove me to Patek. It's a rite of passage.
I'd hope that the ridiculous unavailability and the defeating and often humiliating experience at Rolex boutiques will have people look more closely at other brands. For a while every other person at watch meetups was either wearing the BLNR or new Daytona. "What are you wearing today? *flashes wrist* "Same, bro" *flashes wrist*
"Other mothers have beautiful daughters, too"

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by ct.matt

Breitling drove me to Omega, Omega drove me to Rolex, Rolex drove me to Patek. It's a rite of passage.
I'd hope that the ridiculous unavailability and the defeating and often humiliating experience at Rolex boutiques will have people look more closely at other brands. For a while every other person at watch meetups was either wearing the BLNR or new Daytona. "What are you wearing today? *flashes wrist* "Same, bro" *flashes wrist*
"Other mothers have beautiful daughters, too"

its a circle not a line.

My last purchases are as follows: Panerai, Omega, Tudor.... the five purchases before that Patek, Rolex, Rolex, Patek, Rolex.

[ct.matt]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

its a circle not a line.

My last purchases are as follows: Panerai, Omega, Tudor.... the three purchases before that Patek, Patek, Rolex.

I'll definitely add another Rolex in the near future. Just can't seem to get one at a reasonable rate
That said, I'm more interested in talking to people that are wearing something entirely different from everyone else at meetups. If we're all wearing the same three watches because "they're the best investment"/"are the hottest watches right now" it gets old very quickly. I'll talk to the guy or girl that wears more exotic pieces, especially ones that I rarely if ever see in the wild!

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by ct.matt

I'll definitely add another Rolex in the near future. Just can't seem to get one at a reasonable rate

TBH for me it took getting some really expensive watches to then appreciate the more modestly priced ones. They all have their place, but its not like the Tudor is a 15X less nice of a watch than a Patek. There is a lot of value there. Same goes for Tudor vs Rolex. Rolex is nicer, but not 3X nicer.

Thats why i think collections eventually go in a circle and then its not just going up and up and up

[Brny11]

What has changed in regards to competition to shift the landscape in the past 2 years? Same competition has been out there for past 40 years. I believe your theory is inaccurate. It is shipping to other markets or cut in supply or increase in Rolex demand and increased disposable income, or something else. But the consumer didn’t just decide that Omega, Tag, Hublot l, etc. are sub par to Rolex this year.


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[richard371]

I agree omega makes so many iterations of their watches now. I’ve had POCs DSOTMs etc and just got bored with them. Now the only 2 that appel to me are original moon watch and the seamaster 300s. I hear they are releasing a speedmaster with the original 321. I will definitely want one of those if they keep it original and obtainable and don’t pull the Rolex Daytona crap with low numbers and long waits.

[Dlong]

Joma shop has a Zenith El Primiro with blue face for $5700. It lists for $8600. thats a 33% discount. Whats up with that. Are the Zeniths discounted that much. Sure is a pretty watch.

[Dlong]

Originally Posted by richard371

I agree omega makes so many iterations of their watches now. I’ve had POCs DSOTMs etc and just got bored with them. Now the only 2 that appel to me are original moon watch and the seamaster 300s. I hear they are releasing a speedmaster with the original 321. I will definitely want one of those if they keep it original and obtainable and don’t pull the Rolex Daytona crap with low numbers and long waits.

You have to remember, Omega is owned by Swatch Group. Look at how many Swatch Watch designs there are. For them is all about the stockholder and numbers.

[AK797]

Nothing has changed in the last 5 years, only thing that has is Brexit, and that has made all the difference in the world, literally.

Rolex and Patek have always been by far the most desired brands in their fields, and Brexit just amplified and multiplied that a thousand fold.

[101031-28]

Originally Posted by AK797

Nothing has changed in the last 5 years, only thing that has is Brexit, and that has made all the difference in the world, literally.

Rolex and Patek have always been by far the most desired brands in their fields, and Brexit just amplified and multiplied that a thousand fold.

100%

[thewheel82]

LOL at some of these posts. Expand your horizons people. Lots of nice watches out there other than Rolex. Also, Rolex is probably over priced by about 50%. Look at the prices of Omega and GS which are both 100% in house and offer equal or better finishing and technology. You are paying for marketing and name recognition. Nothing wrong with that but take the blinders off and realize there is more out there. I would be so bored with this hobby if I only liked one brand.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by thewheel82

LOL at some of these posts. Expand your horizons people. Lots of nice watches out there other than Rolex. Also, Rolex is probably over priced by about 50%. Look at the prices of Omega and GS which are both 100% in house and offer equal or better finishing and technology. You are paying for marketing and name recognition. Nothing wrong with that but take the blinders off and realize there is more out there. I would be so bored with this hobby if I only liked one brand.

Correct...great other brands as well,but I completely disagree on Rolex being 50% over priced.The MRSP on the sporties are rediculously low,increase the MRSP and we are back to stable market conditions,with stock in store and bye bye flippers and mr grey dealer.

[MTBer]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Correct...great other brands as well,but I completely disagree on Rolex being 50% over priced.The MRSP on the sporties are rediculously low,increase the MRSP and we are back to stable market conditions,with stock in store and bye bye flippers and mr grey dealer.

The MSRPs on the sports models are only perceived to be low because supply isn't keeping up with demand. If Rolex produced enough to satisfy this demand, there wouldn't be the opportunity to resell the watches at such an inflated markup.

Then again, if exclusivity and Veblen mentality is the goal, restricting supply to boost market value is the name of the game.

*For the beer geeks out there, take Founders CBS for example- when it was first bottled in 2011, allocation was extremely limited, prompting actual fist fights in parking lots over bottles. Single bottles were selling online for over $100. The last release was a few months ago, and now it sits on shelves for $25/bottle. It's the same beer, nothing's changed. Was it underpriced at $25 back in 2011? Based on demand, yes. But it's not underpriced now, and that's strictly due to widespread availability and by no means reflective on the quality of the product. Founders could have gouged the hell out of people when they first bottled it by increasing prices, but they weren't playing that game. Sure, availability was awful, but at least the company was selling it for a fair price.

[thewheel82]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Correct...great other brands as well,but I completely disagree on Rolex being 50% over priced.The MRSP on the sporties are rediculously low,increase the MRSP and we are back to stable market conditions,with stock in store and bye bye flippers and mr grey dealer.

What people are willing to pay and an acceptable profit margin are two different things. Show me how Rolex is better than Omega or GS to justify roughly double the price. The movements are not better, the case finishing is not better, the dial finishing is not better other than using white gold. The amount of white gold is not worth $4,000 more IMO. Better is subjective obviously.

To be clear I like Rolex. Generally folks cannot substantiate why Rolex charges more other than “it is a Rolex” which is a weak arguement at best.

Luxury products do not follow logic though...

[MTBer]

Originally Posted by thewheel82

What people are willing to pay and an acceptable profit margin are two different things. Show me how Rolex is better than Omega or GS to justify roughly double the price. The movements are not better, the case finishing is not better, the dial finishing is not better other than using white gold. The amount of white gold is not worth $4,000 more IMO. Better is subjective obviously.

To be clear I like Rolex. Generally folks cannot substantiate why Rolex charges more other than “it is a Rolex” which is a weak arguement at best.

Luxury products do not follow logic though...

There’s a reason this place is “The Rolex Forum” and not some other brand. Marketing is king, and Rolex is enjoying that crown

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by thewheel82

Show me how Rolex is better than Omega or GS to justify roughly double the price.

Not sure how you figure it's double. The closest like-for-like matchup in terms of model similarity and comparable pricing tiers between the two brands is the Seamaster 300, which lists for $6600, versus the ND Sub, which lists for $7500. The Sub is only 13% more expensive than the Seamaster at list.

[MTBer]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

Not sure how you figure it's double. The closest like-for-like matchup in terms of model similarity and comparable pricing tiers between the two brands is the Seamaster 300, which lists for $6600, versus the ND Sub, which lists for $7500. The Sub is only 13% more expensive than the Seamaster at list.

In terms of model similarity- features, style, "supposed" intended use, etc., the closest watch Omega has to the Rolex Sub Date is the new Seamaster 300M: 3 handed, 300M dive watch with date and rotating bezel.

Seamaster: $4850
Rolex: $8550

[oldman2005]

Originally Posted by thewheel82

LOL at some of these posts. Expand your horizons people. Lots of nice watches out there other than Rolex. Also, Rolex is probably over priced by about 50%. Look at the prices of Omega and GS which are both 100% in house and offer equal or better finishing and technology. You are paying for marketing and name recognition. Nothing wrong with that but take the blinders off and realize there is more out there. I would be so bored with this hobby if I only liked one brand.

, tons of other watch manufactures out there, there're other flavour of icecream out there beside vanilla. Beside are you going just sit around waiting for the AD to call you for the watches that are usually reserved for VIP?

[ROLEXster]

If you ask a non WIS what a luxury brand watch is ?
99% will say Rolex.

I think it is due to superb marketing.
And info passed down from parents / family.
As I kid, my dad & relatives wore Rolex, and they still do.
That’s all they know, and that’s all I know.

If you have a full time job, you can most likely afford a Rolex.
If you are ever in a bind, you can sell a Rolex quick, not lose much. Or even make money with the right SS model.
Rolex is an international currency.

Very few brands can match the benefits of Rolex.




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[Paul_I]

To clarify and hopefully avoid a lot of back and forth. Georges Kern took the reigns at Breitling in Sep 2018 - anything prior to that was not what we are referring to as the 'current management'.

All of the timepieces will range in retail price from $3,000 to $9,000, and the brand will no longer feature quartz models (not counting the handful of “instruments for professionals,” such as the iconic Emergency). “We don’t want to move upwards because other brands are much more qualified to do annual calendars,” Kern said. “Our field is chronographs—this is credibility. But we don’t want to go below, because this cheapens the brand.”

https://www.luxurysociety.com/en/art...ransformation/

[NavalFlight]

Originally Posted by Paul_I

To clarify and hopefully avoid a lot of back and forth. Georges Kern took the reigns at Breitling in Sep 2018 - anything prior to that was not what we are referring to as the 'current management'.

All of the timepieces will range in retail price from $3,000 to $9,000, and the brand will no longer feature quartz models (not counting the handful of “instruments for professionals,” such as the iconic Emergency). “We don’t want to move upwards because other brands are much more qualified to do annual calendars,” Kern said. “Our field is chronographs—this is credibility. But we don’t want to go below, because this cheapens the brand.”

https://www.luxurysociety.com/en/art...ransformation/

One note on this... the Navitimer 8 was released after Kern took over but was in development well before, so the 8 also isn’t a Kern era design.

[mangoseed]

Originally Posted by Paul_I

To clarify and hopefully avoid a lot of back and forth. Georges Kern took the reigns at Breitling in Sep 2018 - anything prior to that was not what we are referring to as the 'current management'.

All of the timepieces will range in retail price from $3,000 to $9,000, and the brand will no longer feature quartz models (not counting the handful of “instruments for professionals,” such as the iconic Emergency). “We don’t want to move upwards because other brands are much more qualified to do annual calendars,” Kern said. “Our field is chronographs—this is credibility. But we don’t want to go below, because this cheapens the brand.”

https://www.luxurysociety.com/en/art...ransformation/

He took over in 2017: https://www.robbreport.com.sg/interv...ure-sky-racer/

So I guess he was responsible for they Navitimer 8, but as you said he did discontinue the Skyracer.

[Paul_I]

Originally Posted by mangoseed

He took over in 2017: https://www.robbreport.com.sg/interv...ure-sky-racer/

So I guess he was responsible for they Navitimer 8, but as you said he did discontinue the Skyracer.

Yes, that sounds correct, I recalled when they were purchased but was relying on the previous source for when Kern was specifically announced.

[NavalFlight]

Originally Posted by Paul_I

Yes, that sounds correct, I recalled when they were purchased but was relying on the previous source for when Kern was specifically announced.

Incorrect. As I stated above, while the Navitimer 8 came out after Kern took over, its development predates Kern.

[Paul_I]

Originally Posted by NavalFlight

Incorrect. As I stated above, while the Navitimer 8 came out after Kern took over, its development predates Kern.

Wasn't referring to that at all in my post, also I believe you are splitting hairs. I've also just read several articles that attribute the Navitimer 8 design to the vision of Georges Kern.

[Wristwatcherboy]

Originally Posted by mangoseed

He took over in 2017: https://www.robbreport.com.sg/interv...ure-sky-racer/

So I guess he was responsible for they Navitimer 8, but as you said he did discontinue the Skyracer.

Mr Mangoseed, as has been pointed out by myself and others, the “piece of turd” you were referring to was introduced before Georges Kern’s tenure began, and one of his first acts of CEO was to discontinue and remove many references, the skyracer included. Yes, it is still on both the UK and US website but they are discontinued, not in production and not available to buy from a Breitling Boutique (other AD’s may be selling through remaining inventory...). So like I said originally, the new management discontinued this watch along with many others, despite it being a relatively “new” model.

The Navitimer 8 was the first big release under Kerns direction employing Breitlings new simplified vintage design language. Whether it had started to be designed before he took over or not is anyone’s guess, regardless it is the first watch which points at Breitlings new design language and ethos and vintage inspired references under the new management.

[mangoseed]

Originally Posted by Wristwatcherboy

Mr Mangoseed, as has been pointed out by myself and others, the “piece of turd” you were referring to was introduced before Georges Kern’s tenure began, and one of his first acts of CEO was to discontinue and remove many references, the skyracer included. Yes, it is still on both the UK and US website but they are discontinued, not in production and not available to buy from a Breitling Boutique (other AD’s may be selling through remaining inventory...). So like I said originally, the new management discontinued this watch along with many others, despite it being a relatively “new” model.

The Navitimer 8 was the first big release under Kerns direction employing Breitlings new simplified vintage design language. Whether it had started to be designed before he took over or not is anyone’s guess, regardless it is the first watch which points at Breitlings new design language and ethos and vintage inspired references under the new management.

If he did discontinue the Skyracer then it was a good decision, but I cannot defend the Navitimer 8 or the removal of the Beautiful gold winged logo on the real Navitimer

[gchee]

I think they got the name right. Imagine they named it something else other than Rolex (ie Rolly, Bolex, Colex) Would it still be what it is today?

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[Paul_I]

Originally Posted by gchee

I think they got the name right. Imagine they named it something else other than Rolex (ie Rolly, Bolex, Colex) Would it still be what it is today?

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[Fleetlord]

I'm afraid I have to agree with the OP post about the current state of the watch industry...other than Rolex, AP and Patek.

Brands are just lost...adrift in a murky mix of marketing confusion, design indecision, and overproduction..

It is so bad in fact that I think the success of Rolex will cull weaker brands similar to the quartz crisis of the 1970's. The gap in the brands is that great that the dominance of Rolex, combined with emergence "smart" watches and the overall softening of the watch industry will put them under.

Omega is probably the best adjusted at the moment as they keep their Speedy Pro consistent and issue some relevant LE versions now that people actually want.

The rest of the Speedy lineup is unneeded. DSOTM and the rest. Just waiting to be blown out at 40% off.

The Seamaster lineup is a mess. Too many models..and they keep changing the design every year. Some are vintage looking , some are modern. Some are this, some are that...Too many!

The other Omega references nobody cares about at all, so they aren't worth mentioning.

And folks....Omega is the BEST of the sad lot pumping out watches right now.

IWC? They put out a few LE watches that people liked and some of the SIHH pilots look ok, but again...too many models. Plus they are making bronze pilot watches? Bronze? That's so 2010 and should be for dive watches. That is just being totally out of touch with the market.

Panerai? Oh boy...where to start. The Due? All the crazy material for Submersibles that have huge retails? Not what the market wants guys (unless you are RM)....They claim the Due is, but that is just alienating Paneristis as it is basically a Michael Kors edition of a Luminor. Just nasty stuff.

Breitling. Wow they are in rough shape. When you go to the boutique and they admit that business stinks because they don't have a model that anybody wants, that is really bad. They must make 2000 versions of the Navitimer, which is just poison. Who can even figure out what they want? Forget it, I'll just get a Rolex.

Hublot? Not even worth discussing. I think they going to wind up going out of business. Just my opinion, but whatever mojo they had, that is long gone.

So, this a broken record. i could list other brands and it's the same tune. Poor design and overproduction combined with lazy marketing leaves them out on the street for Rolex to steamroll...