Rolex prices won’t decrease with a global crisis

[NYG1121]

This is no different than anything else right now as I said earlier. Everything is getting cheaper. If you are buyer, this is a great opportunity. If you are a seller (as many flippers are trying right now), you will certainly get less than you would in the past and most likely the future. I would be a buyer at a discounted price just like I am currently with stocks. Opportunities like this only come once in a while in your lifetime.

[powerfunk]

Originally Posted by Uhtred59

Oh bubbleback, were are you now.

Exactly. People were paying $10k for some Bubblebacks at the height of their craze. Eric Ku mentioned on a podcast how he had vintage Daytonas that lost half their value basically overnight during the 2008 crisis. Prices of 1675's crashed from $6k to $3-4k (give or take, as I recall).

I don't entirely agree with the notion that watch markets can't implode.

[hamachikanashiro]

Originally Posted by dmash

I’m not a financial guru by any means, but some friends a lot smarter than me advised me this way. $14k would have us at the same % down as the 2008 crisis, and they were all in agreement that there’s going to be a ton of support there, even with a horrible market.

I’ll invest the rest of my money when it goes down $5k or up $5k either one. I’ll be happy in a few years either way.

be careful of "advice"

[Nikrnic]

Time will tell, oh did i say that...I bought a few used pieces (no rolex) in the last two weeks, good deals, no steals but now is not a good time to sell, watches, stocks or classic cars, I'll sit tight thank you..

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[Spencer]

"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."

-Warren Buffet

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Spencer

"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."

-Warren Buffet

Great quote

[dmash]

Originally Posted by hamachikanashiro

be careful of "advice"

What does that even imply? Quite open ended

[Ny325]

Hopefully our spending won’t either. We need to get this economy rolling again. This CV gave the world a economic blow. I’m confidence our economy will come strong. Maybe AD will have SS sport models in the display cases.

[YYZed]

Originally Posted by hamachikanashiro

be careful of "advice"

That's some good advi.... Wait a second

[glamorama]

Even if you wanted to buy or sell a watch it’s almost impossible in large parts of Europe. If the police stop you and ask what your reason to break the curfew is I doubt they will appreciate anyone going out to send a watch. Don’t think DHL offices etc are even open.

[Homo Sapien X]

I think there are 2 groups of people here. A group who have already purchased a few Rolex watches and hoping to capitalise , and another who are just sitting on the fence.

Whatever it is , please be resilient and stay safe. This pandemic is far worst than people believed, many lives are gone.


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[mmaggi]

Economists are predicting unemployment to be between 20% & 30% by year end in the USA. I don't think many here (including myself) have any idea how bad this will be if it comes to fruition. And if it truly does, then I can't imagine luxury items not losing anywhere from 25%-50% of their current market value. I hope the economists are wrong about the unemployment #s.

[c41006]

Originally Posted by mmaggi

Economists are predicting unemployment to be between 20% & 30% by year end in the USA. I don't think many here (including myself) have any idea how bad this will be if it comes to fruition. And if it truly does, then I can't imagine luxury items not losing anywhere from 25%-50% of their current market value. I hope the economists are wrong about the unemployment #s.

The truth is that nobody really has any idea how all of this is going to play out. I hope things don’t get that bad but I guess all we can do is wait and see.

[mml4]

Originally Posted by omx5o

Two reasons for prices going up.

1. China appears to be back to normal, and that is where a lot of demand has been recently.

2. Rolex have halted production. Will take a while to get supply going again.

Yes to the above. The question is whether or not conspicuous consumption will still be the "in thing" or will the pandemic act as a pivot point for a change in buying behavior. If I were Chanel,Rolex etc. I would at least be concerned in what direction buying habits will take when this is over.
I don't think the last four years' habits will continue. The WIS market will still be there but we were not the driving force behind the 28K Daytona to begin with.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by mml4

Yes to the above. The question is whether or not conspicuous consumption will still be the "in thing" or will the pandemic act as a pivot point for a change in buying behavior. If I were Chanel,Rolex etc. I would at least be concerned in what direction buying habits will take when this is over.
I don't think the last four years' habits will continue. The WIS market will still be there but we were not the driving force behind the 28K Daytona to begin with.

I commented on this previously. Tons of my friends with designer stuff have it stuffed up now and are showcasing a very ‘minimalist’ style. They were legitimately criticized for showing any type of money on IG with so many currently losing jobs, etc. This could be a start of a trend against brand name excessively priced luxury goods, you never know.

[interestedwatcher]

Originally Posted by dmash

I commented on this previously. Tons of my friends with designer stuff have it stuffed up now and are showcasing a very ‘minimalist’ style. They were legitimately criticized for showing any type of money on IG with so many currently losing jobs, etc. This could be a start of a trend against brand name excessively priced luxury goods, you never know.

I'm with you 100 percent - the tide has turned in the last month, and it is just going to get worse. Look at how land lords are portrayed on Reddit and Twitter (sometimes deservedly).

Right now someone would look at a 40000 dollar watch, and just think that's two casual workers annual salary, why should that guy have that?

Not right, but read the room.

[1William]

An interesting thread and one I will be following. We can each state our opinions and look at the many scenarios which may play out depending on the factors that come to fruition. Speaking specifically to Rolex and what happens to them during this crisis is easy and simple, nothing except they are not open. Rolex is a multi billion dollar company and has vast cash reserves and PM reserves. They will take care of the employees that work for them and move right through this crisis. Go back to 08-09 and read the predictions on what would happen and the long term impacts and some of it was right. Most of it was wrong in context and fact as the markets recovered and the housing markets returned. To not think that thing will go up and down and sideways ignores the history of economic times. Will prices on Rolex watches see a down turn, sure, but how much and for how long. The speculative market would be buy everything you could, hold to recovery, and profit in the long run as the prices will bounce back significantly to what the buyers have in them. Wait and see should be our mantra and hope for the best while preparing for the worst. This is not the end of time, it is a change in direction in our course. Enjoy your watches.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by interestedwatcher

I'm with you 100 percent - the tide has turned in the last month, and it is just going to get worse. Look at how land lords are portrayed on Reddit and Twitter (sometimes deservedly).

Right now someone would look at a 40000 dollar watch, and just think that's two casual workers annual salary, why should that guy have that?

Not right, but read the room.

Yup, I live in NYC and have plenty of friends who were decked out with designer goods and it’s all over their IG. They have stories posted now about how they’ve ‘rethought their life and priorities’, all kinds of stuff. These are the EXACT same people who didn’t even wear a watch 5 years ago, but would have on a gold Daytona last year.

It’s incredible how fast trends can change.

[Snoop_]

I think this is a pointless debate because we do not know how long COVID-19 pandemic will last. (3, 6, 9, 12 months or longer). If it takes 12 months for vaccine and drugs to counter the COVID-19 Pandemic then a Rolex is the last thing people will want including myself. I take the the cash.

[Duey]

Prices will fall Fast ..

I think we'll find out soon that the fact is a lot of people HAVE been cashing out part of their 401k, paying the additional tax, to live a life beyond their true means. Just like in the housing crash when people used their houses like ATM machines because the values were going up so fast. The same is happening with stocks and 401k's. So as the the stocks crash so is all of this free money that's been flowing in.

Prices are going to fall fast. At first the Grey dealers, trusted sellers, will pick up the low priced ones fast so it doesn't depreciate their current stock but that won't last long. A lot of people who bought Rolex's thinking they were the next big investment will need money and need it fast and the prices will fall.

[Roli4life]

I have to unfortunately agree. The longer I stay home the more I find myself shopping online for new toys to pass the time.

Also with China returning to normal, and Rolex being shut down the man will go even lower. So I definitely do not see Rolex losing a lot of value.

[Roli4life]

Originally Posted by Roli4life

I have to unfortunately agree. The longer I stay home the more I find myself shopping online for new toys to pass the time.

Also with China returning to normal, and Rolex being shut down the man will go even lower. So I definitely do not see Rolex losing a lot of value.

CorrectedSupply going lower, not men. LOL!

[BaselWorld]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yup, I live in NYC and have plenty of friends who were decked out with designer goods and it’s all over their IG. They have stories posted now about how they’ve ‘rethought their life and priorities’, all kinds of stuff. These are the EXACT same people who didn’t even wear a watch 5 years ago, but would have on a gold Daytona last year.

It’s incredible how fast trends can change.

But these are also the same people who, 3 weeks after C19, will have booked trips to the Bahamas, bought another Porsche and are complaining about waiting times for the 5726...

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by YYZed

That's some good advi.... Wait a second

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by omx5o

Two reasons for prices going up.

1. China appears to be back to normal, and that is where a lot of demand has been recently.

2. Rolex have halted production. Will take a while to get supply going again.

And one reason for prices going down.

1. A global pandemic

[Arcticsub]

I seriously don't get all these posts about "China returning to normal".

First off, China returning to normal would mean another wave of cases. The same is happening in Hong Kong as we speak.

Also, the world economy has pretty much halted, so please define normal in the context of the Chinese economy.

Finally, trusting the numbers and images coming from the Chinese government/its mouthpieces is one of the many reasons the world got in this mess.

[tattooedfagin]

Grey market flippers might have to adjust a little to move bits but it won't be huge & I can't see the Vintage market suffering at all. YouTube is full of the bleak vloggers at the moment

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

I seriously don't get all these posts about "China returning to normal".

First off, China returning to normal would mean another wave of cases. The same is happening in Hong Kong as we speak.

Also, the world economy has pretty much halted, so please define normal in the context of the Chinese economy.

Finally, trusting the numbers and images coming from the Chinese government/its mouthpieces is one of the many reasons the world got in this mess.

I personally think the “China back to normal” stuff is smoke and mirrors. It could easily be the case that they’re rushing back to work because the economy is on its knees.

[Gary Busey]

yes Rolex is immune to supply and demand. Ill tell you what, if you believe this, ill sell you my 14060M for 8K, when S&P is down 50%.

[snoware]

Originally Posted by tattooedfagin

Grey market flippers might have to adjust a little to move bits but it won't be huge & I can't see the Vintage market suffering at all. YouTube is full of the bleak vloggers at the moment

Couldn’t agree more. Solid investments and strong brands won’t suffer. No matter the market situation.


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