A sign of things to come?

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

I don't think we can rely on those gray dealer prices to fall anytime soon as most of them paid high dollar and they will all now try hard not to sell them bellow that. Remember that most of the grays were buying the BLRO for $14K just months ago. Now they are full and stucked. Just remember those showy Instagram photos with 20 BLROs on both hands ..

What we can expect by the Autumn of 2020 when general population starts to feel the full effects of C19 and a lot of folks start selling Rolex watches to cover the mortgage/rent/car payments, is to acquire that BLRO via local AD within couple of months of waiting at most - instead of quoted time of couple of years most of us were told..

I think the down driver on prices will not be distressed sellers, but availability at ADs at MSRP when buyers disappear and waitlists dry up. May take a few months, but who would pay above MSRP then?

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

I think the down driver on prices will not be distressed sellers, but availability at ADs at MSRP when buyers disappear and waitlists dry up. May take a few months, but who would pay above MSRP then?

True. It seems like there were a lot of incoming threads from forum members from their ADs prior to covid shut down...

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

I think the down driver on prices will not be distressed sellers, but availability at ADs at MSRP when buyers disappear and waitlists dry up. May take a few months, but who would pay above MSRP then?

Yes, that's exactly my thought. We are more likely to acquire the desired watch at the AD in near future rather than seeing it drop at the gray dealer.

Someone asked who will buy at the gray in that case - the answer might be that those gray will have to take the hit, or try to break even with those watches they overpaid before the market started sinking ..

In the meantime, I suggest that we follow up on this BLNR eBay auction in the UK so that we have a better sense of the current market situation in Europe.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Rolex-GMT...cAAOSwZ-RelEU3

[MAINEZX10]

Sold, $14,700

[RoscoPico]

I kinda get the feeling OP was trying to see if this was a real deal or fake.
Title sure was misleading in that case though.
Sorry my eye is not worthy of identifying authenticity.
I know I've learned some painful lessons though.

[Podmornica]

I believe we might have somewhat unrealistic view on the market situation, since the forum members are probably representing a 0,05% of general Rolex buyers in the World.

We can obviously tell that outside of the forum there are a bunch of people willing to bid high on these watches which are still unaware of the situation.

Those that are bidding high are probably still facing with high rejection rate by the local AD and they are lurking the web for the deals. They then end up on Chrono24 or eBay and are assured these pieces are hard to get just by seeing how inflated they are. Some of those buyers than accepts to pay the high dollar. That could be one of the additioanl reasons why the gray dealers are not lowering their prices. There seems to be a lot of suckers out there.

[Bosscheto]

Or maybe it is too early, the ADs are closed, and the grays are still having some control of the market because they mainly trade among themselves in a B2B situation so they source rare pieces instead of hoarding them. It is clear though that they have decreased buying from flippers, and the prices have gone down there as well, which shows you how the grays really value the pieces compared to what we see.

TBH the discussion is quite empty because most people have some contact over the phone with their ADs. The prices are unrealistic and everyone is hoping that this is a temporary freeze and not a global economic depression. I for one, genuinely hope it is just a deep hole we fill in with cash and move on, I hope the prices go high as quickly as possible because it means we are back to work. What I hope for and what is the reality though - 2 different things.

[Podmornica]

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Rolex-GMT...N/174249487289

Sold for £11.300 ~13.000 EUR = $14.100

That's a lot for BLNR, especially compared to US prices. Might be some shill bidding there since the auction is private and nobody knows who bid what ..

If real, than the market still not soft in Europe ..

[3sheets86]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Rolex-GMT...N/174249487289

Sold for £11.300 ~13.000 EUR = $14.100

That's a lot for BLNR, especially compared to US prices. Might be some shill bidding there since the auction is private and nobody knows who bid what ..

If real, than the market still not soft in Europe ..

Yes, I've been watching a few UK auctions as there are some models that I have been hoping to buy for a while but they're either discontinued or there's no chance of an AD supplying me due to my meagre spend history. The watches I have seen on the whole went for what I deem to be pre-Covid prices.

This for example, https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Rolex-GMT...MAAOSwh3xejLKa

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by 3sheets86

Yes, I've been watching a few UK auctions as there are some models that I have been hoping to buy for a while but they're either discontinued or there's no chance of an AD supplying me due to my meagre spend history. The watches I have seen on the whole went for what I deem to be pre-Covid prices.

This for example, https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Rolex-GMT...MAAOSwh3xejLKa

That's an awful lot of money, indeed.

Seems like the auction prices are reaching higher prices than those regular sales. Wondering how far (or more than planned) are some people willing to go once they see they have been overbid? Must be something psychological ..

[Lucifer]

lets make it 100k

:)