AD today: "They're coming"

[Oystersteel]

Originally Posted by Edb5020

I call BS on that.

Me too.

[watchwatcher]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

I think it's more nuanced than the two extremes we always throw out (either all ADs are empty or all ADs have a white dial Daytona). If Rolex fully embraces the tulipization of their brand, they are at risk of being left with a real disaster post bubble pop (and thus far, no bubble in the history of civilization has ever not popped). We're living in the day of $20k OPs, but someday the world will wake up and say "you know, paying $20k for a $5k watch is not a symbol of status, it's a symbol of cognitive disability." If you want to show the world you are such a baller that you can afford to wear a $20k watch, how about wearing one that's actually worth $20k? Rolex was always a brand that wanted to be your aspirational/milestone goal. But if you can't get a Daytona for your 50th bday, even with 2 years of pre-planning, maybe you'll just buy a new Vette instead. Or an AP.

Again, Ariel does not work for Rolex. He does not sell them nor profit off of their sales. I see no angle where it makes sense for him to tow the company line if he doesn't believe it. And I think having those behind the scenes relationships, and the late night dinner and drinks conversations, gives a far better view into what the thinking is inside the crown than any of us have. So when he makes the statement that "it took them a while, but they have finally recognized the problem" I do not immediately dismiss that as a nonsense fluff comment. You and everyone else are, of course, free to do so. I'm just passing along the info.

Please understand, I meant no offense and I do appreciate you passing the info along.

I don't dismiss the comment as fluff, or nonsense, but I also think it doesn't match up to reality, speaking of a cognitive dissonance. And, speaking of nuanced responses, maybe this all means we'll see a few more DJ's in the cases by Christmas. Who knows.

But, if I was a betting man, my money would be on Rolex NOT going back to the days when we tried on watches in the store and bought them for discounts from the trusted sellers. That's their real issue, one that I would hazard a guess eclipses any worries about a "bubble"...and certainly not one they're going to be addressing in their PR campaigns either.

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by watchwatcher

Please understand, I meant no offense and I do appreciate you passing the info along.



I don't dismiss the comment as fluff, or nonsense, but I also think it doesn't match up to reality, speaking of a cognitive dissonance. And, speaking of nuanced responses, maybe this all means we'll see a few more DJ's in the cases by Christmas. Who knows.



But, if I was a betting man, my money would be on Rolex NOT going back to the days when we tried on watches in the store and bought them for discounts from the trusted sellers. That's their real issue, one that I would hazard a guess eclipses any worries about a "bubble"...and certainly not one they're going to be addressing in their PR campaigns either.

No offense taken, we're all friends here! I too don't expect to return to an overstock scenario any time soon, but it would be nice to graduate from "impossible to get" to "can be acquired with some patience". I think a 6-12 month wait for an AD sourced piece would surf the balance nicely. Not having a case full of steel Subs would keep the impression of exclusivity high. The impatient can still run to the grays and get theirs tomorrow at a premium. And the true enthusiasts should be willing to wait <= 1 year to get a meaningful piece. I don't see the need to impulse buy a watch like this. And you almost certainly should have 6-12 months heads up for getting married, graduating, turning 50, etc. I believe there is an ideal balance to be had between supply and demand, but we currently have swung a bit past it.

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[Fencer28]

Bottom line - I don’t think we will ever go back to the days before 2017. However the current state of the Rolex market is definitely a bubble. I think going forward in 2022 it will be somewhere between pre-2017 and now in terms of demand. People won’t have to wait years to buy a watch anymore. Steel watches won’t cost almost as much as solid PM pieces. It’s just a really bad time to buy a Rolex right now.

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by Fencer28

It’s just a really bad time to buy a Rolex right now.

Unless you can buy from an AD at MSRP


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[David001]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

Unless you can buy from an AD at MSRP

If you make that possibility very low then dopamine will flood into peoples brains and they'll work even harder to try and get one, in fact they'll start threads on here, bang on doors, beg, buy things they don't want, etc.

Rolex perhaps took a trip to Vegas and watched all the idiots throwing their money down the drain trying to be that one guy in the crowd that wins. The rest just settle for the dopamine buzz and then try again next month.

Rolex aint changing anything

[goliat]

Just saying what you want to hear.

[SLWoodster]

I can feel it, it's Daytona 2021!!!

[Madman37]

Do we really think that more watches will be available now though because of no travel. In London now no international travellers, tourists.

[glamorama]

Originally Posted by Gerry.GEG

I believe this is similar to the ammo shortage in the U.S.and price spike. The more they make, the more people with the means will buy. I know more production will help supply but demand from those who "need" multiple Rolex' in their safes will always win this game. Just like those who will pay the increased prices for ammo which in-turn keeps the price up and supply low no matter how much they manufacture right now.

Precisely. Seem to be the same situationwith computer components such as GPUs.

[Anthony808]

Why bother having ADs and boutiques if you aren't going to stock the product? Are they simply a front in order to provide legitimacy for the brand while secretly dumping their products on the grays who then mark up the prices and create an illusion of scarcity in order to entice those with a fear of missing out? This is Rolex's grand strategy?

[Abre]

Originally Posted by Anthony808

Why bother having ADs and boutiques if you aren't going to stock the product? Are they simply a front in order to provide legitimacy for the brand while secretly dumping their products on the grays who then mark up the prices and create an illusion of scarcity in order to entice those with a fear of missing out? This is Rolex's grand strategy?

And I really think that the prices will continue to rise as long as there is demand, and demand is through the roof for rolex, AP and Patek.



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[teck21]

Originally Posted by Anthony808

Why bother having ADs and boutiques if you aren't going to stock the product? Are they simply a front in order to provide legitimacy for the brand while secretly dumping their products on the grays who then mark up the prices and create an illusion of scarcity in order to entice those with a fear of missing out? This is Rolex's grand strategy?

That’s why Rolex is really streamlining it’s AD network.

It only wants to produce so many watches a year and they can’t keep all ADs adequately supplied in the face of demand today.

The demand is real, FOMO cannot be created without the active participation of consumers.

If you’re unsure, try creating FOMO with your shit, see if the consumer bites.


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[Onequik135i]

For what it’s worth I did receive the unexpected call from my local AD 2 weeks back saying he received a new 126610LN after I had asked to be placed on the list for the LV or even the LN when they were first released last September. I asked him about the LV model but his reply was it’s a needle in a haystack.

[Daveclock]

Originally Posted by teck21

That’s why Rolex is really streamlining it’s AD network.

It only wants to produce so many watches a year and they can’t keep all ADs adequately supplied in the face of demand today.

The demand is real, FOMO cannot be created without the active participation of consumers.

If you’re unsure, try creating FOMO with your shit, see if the consumer bites.


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Thats some funny scatological option but it made me spit some coffee out thanks!

[kearez]

Don’t see this happening, I think your AD is just trying to create hope. So you stick with them. Rolex to ramp up production would need more highly skilled and trained workers, which take years to add their work force. If it takes a AP 10 years to qualify a watch maker, I’m sure Rolex is 2-3 minimum.

[mattonthewater]

You gather all of this from your AD saying “they’re coming”? lmao.

[Jpccarguy]

With all due respect to the OP and all who responded, it’s all conjecture.
The Proof is in the Pudding.

[Oxfordian]

How many watches does Rolex make a year, 850,000 - 900,000?

Is this enough to satisfy demand, I think not.

I see no change in what exists currently, sorry but I just don’t see the situation changing.

[SaintMickey]

They sell every single watch they make… They do not care.

And I’d rather a desirable watch than one that’s “flooded” the market.


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[garyk]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

No, we don’t- I MEAN. No.. they don’t.

Hahaha....Ok then, what’s the secret hand shake?

[tmilnthorp]

Originally Posted by SaintMickey

They sell every single watch they make… They do not care.

And I’d rather a desirable watch than one that’s “flooded” the market.


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One of my favorite brands is part of a giant publicly-owned company that must sell as many watches as possible to satiate the share holders. Lemme tell you what it does for resale...

*Cries in Omega

[Rado63]

Unfortunately you will not see the hyped pieces in the display case. The AD gets a limited number of hyped items and a certain number of not so hyped items. Clients who buy the most will continue to get the most. There are other brands equal or greater to Rolex in quality or horology, but you don't want those watches.

[Rexplorer214270]

Originally Posted by tmilnthorp

One of my favorite brands is part of a giant publicly-owned company that must sell as many watches as possible to satiate the share holders. Lemme tell you what it does for resale...

*Cries in Omega

Are you talking about ALS, Vacheron, JLC? Being part of the Richemont group and publicly traded has not seem to hurt their resale value....

[Petersafc]

My local AD had stacks of watches in. Even a couple of sports watches which I happened to snap up one of them.

[Rmoor]

One of my ADs has said their allocation has been cut in half for 2021. Who knows ! Lol

[Francist]

Just checked with my AD last weekend, still nothing except cellinis & 28mm dj & some ugly 31mm dj. There are people on wait list for mere ss dj41.

[franktehtank]

Originally Posted by Kostas

Customer walks in to an AD " do you have any Steel Daytonas?"

AD - " yeah we have dozens, Rolex opened the flood gates, white / black dials you name it! how many would you like?"

Customer- "Ahhh hmmm , can you discount them?"

AD - " Sure, we have an oversupply now , we can give 15% off, which one would you like?

Customer - " ahhh ok, on second thoughts i might leave it "

"Grey dealers have brand new ones for 30% off list. I'll just go with those".

I can confidently say in the above situation, I would 1000% still be buying Rolex, but probably wouldn't be from an AD anymore.

[SubMillennial]

Does China get watches in proportion to their population or the same allotment as always? Is this known? I wonder if it's like a five year wait over there just to get a Milgauss

[Omarion07]

Originally Posted by Annan

Well, since she seems to be forthcoming with (factual?) information, ask her if Rolex has fixed the problem with the 32XX movements.

Absolutely with you here