Rolex prices won’t decrease with a global crisis

[Hkspwrsche]

Originally Posted by Mystro

^^Bingo^^. My 30 years in Rolex ownership agrees with this. Only the new fringe buyers worry or even care if they lose a few $K on a watch. It’s a “Luxury good” and normally purchased in that proper context.

People that buy a Steinway doesn’t sweat over the current value of appreciation or depreciation of their $85,000 piano. It’s a lifestyle and quality of life you either can afford or not.

Agree 100%

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

I seriously don't get all these posts about "China returning to normal".

First off, China returning to normal would mean another wave of cases. The same is happening in Hong Kong as we speak.

Also, the world economy has pretty much halted, so please define normal in the context of the Chinese economy.

Finally, trusting the numbers and images coming from the Chinese government/its mouthpieces is one of the many reasons the world got in this mess.

Lol I stopped responding because it’s ridiculous. My wife and I do massive import/export with China, people are smoking something good saying it’s ‘back to normal’. Need to stop blindly believing whatever phony source they’re quoting.

[Pam673]

Those dudes just trying to talk up the market, a futile attempt!

[Nikrnic]

Now that ADs are pretty much closed I say we'll see a temporary spike in asking prices being fueled by private sellers looking to get out but once the reality sets in prices will continually fall due to the sudden less demand.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Nikrnic

Now that ADs are pretty much closed I say we'll see a temporary spike in asking prices being fueled by private sellers looking to get out but once the reality sets in prices will continually fall due to the sudden less demand.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Less demand which will be worsened by panic sellers needing to cash in. I think you're right that greys will look to capitalise on the ADs closing. I can't think who in the right mind would be looking to drop double retail on a SS watch at the moment though.

[2JHead]

I sense some butthurtness here from guys that haven't been able to pick up their dream piece at MSRP and refused to go grey. They want prices to fall so that they can get their grail and at the same time stick it to the world. I seen no reason to listen to them, Rolexes are going to hold their value reasonably well, although volume may go down intermittently.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by 2JHead

I sense some butthurtness here from guys that haven't been able to pick up their dream piece at MSRP and refused to go grey. They want prices to fall so that they can get their grail and at the same time stick it to the world. I seen no reason to listen to them, Rolexes are going to hold their value reasonably well, although volume may go down intermittently.

Totally

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by 2JHead

I sense some butthurtness here from guys that haven't been able to pick up their dream piece at MSRP and refused to go grey. They want prices to fall so that they can get their grail and at the same time stick it to the world. I seen no reason to listen to them, Rolexes are going to hold their value reasonably well, although volume may go down intermittently.

Conversely, I'm sensing a little butthurt from some that are having a hard time coming to terms that maybe they grossly overpaid for their second hand steel Rolex in the last few years and that their watch isn't as valuable as they would like to project...

[JimBianchi]

I've been tracking a Rolex OP39 Blue or Black since Christmas.

I wanted NIB or lNIB with box and papers for the best deal possible.

Found a blue one for $5,590, 2019 warranty card unworn, with stickers. They discounted it finally around March 10th, not much, but I also had a $250 discount code from a youtuber I watch.

Delivered, $5,200 and it truly is unworn with stickers and full set/box.

The guy emailed me and said unfortunately he could not size it for me, because of the lock-down, he was at home. He drop shipped it to me overnight. I knew I had to source a couple of links because of my 8+ inch wrist. I can wear it as is, but it's tight. Links will be here soon, but I still wear it, because I can.

Very glad I did my research and was patient. I am sure it's not the best deal out there, but it's a good one.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

Conversely, I'm sensing a little butthurt from some that are having a hard time coming to terms that maybe they grossly overpaid for their second hand steel Rolex in the last few years and that their watch isn't as valuable as they would like to project...

Totally

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by dmash

Totally

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

[Neurogeek]

Hyperinflation is coming. Anyone still recon rolex bubble will burst? Just curious.

[johnnydrama]

Maybe I haven't been watching prices close enough but our good friend DavidSW has a Batgirl with partial stickers on his site for under $13k! I feel like that is a pretty big move down and definitely sets the stage for private sales to be in the $11-12k range.

If I could get a SS Pepsi for that, I'd buy it today.

Drama

[enginerd]

Originally Posted by Rori

Wait and see.
PS: this crisis is not a normal one, this is unprecedented and so the graph will be.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Exactly! How many of you speculating have been through a global pandemic of this scale? Not a one.

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk

[Aztro]

There are vanishingly few reasons why prices on the grey market would stay level or go up right now. ADs selling at MSRP? - sure that probably will not change (for the few still open). But double MSRP for a used good? That does not look like a safe investment right now (and I have some skin in this game, but none over MSRP luckily). In my home city (Perth, Oz) I haven't been able to buy toilet paper, flour, pasta and meat for two weeks (three in some cases)- fair to say I won't starve, but I still have other priorities than buying another watch that tells the time moderately badly (as much as love such watches). Maybe some greys can ride out the next six months without budging on their target price, but I'd guess plenty won't. We will all see in a few months time.

[Highlatitude]

A lot of greys are online dealers with minimal overheads and a lot to loose by selling below their break even pricepoint. Some will panic sell but most will hold their nerve and their prices to try and wait out the storm. The hype bubble was already gradually deflating and will continue to do so but there will be no crazy fire-sales. Anyone who thinks there will is suffering from wishful thinking.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by Highlatitude

A lot of greys are online dealers with minimal overheads and a lot to loose by selling below their break even pricepoint. Some will panic sell but most will hold their nerve and their prices to try and wait out the storm.

How much will they lose if they don't sell any product at all? You can't eat a Rolex. You can (and probably will be forced to) offload your stock to pay outstanding debt and running costs.

[mmaggi]

Certain models selling at grays that are way overpriced to begin with will see a 10%-20% price drop in a couple of months assuming this will be a recession that will last 6-12 months. This is my guess and the models will be GMTs & Daytonas and maybe Subs, YMs.

Other models that are fairly priced to begin with (OPs, AKs, MGs, EX, EXII) will see very little to no adjustment. This is my humble opinion.

[Highlatitude]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

How much will they lose if they don't sell any product at all? You can't eat a Rolex. You can (and probably will be forced to) offload your stock to pay outstanding debt and running costs.

Well, if their overheads are low, not much. That is the point, they are online retailers so their fixed operating costs are low. Of course they will loose income but they will choose that over financial ruin by liquidating stocks, just like most people who own stocks and shares will not sell during this economic downturn and will try to sit on their shares until they come back up again. Also the greys know Rolex output will not catch up with the demand because Rolex has shut down manufacturing for the time being. Even if many people drop out of waitlists there will still be many willing to buy when they finally get the call from the AD. I don’t think we are going to see popular steel models filling window displays at ADs for a while.

[Eva123]

I did not read the whole thread, however my thoughts are the following:

1) Some people are making comparisons with 2008 financial crisis and trying to make predictions on that. Wrong. This coronovirus crisis is very unique as it affects all countries, all markets, all industries.
2) Before this virus crisis there were quite a lot rich people who could afford Rolex, Patek, RM watches, however after this crisis a lot of business will go bankrupt. Even if you were very rich, had a lot of businesses, investments, your assets can be wiped out very easily.
3) There is a general very bad mood everywhere, many people d not think about purchasing anything which is associated with luxury items. E.g. my financial position is quite ok, I still have a job and can work remotely but buying food only and pay for utilities. Do not intend to buy anything elese.
4) The above factors might cause a very big shrinkage in demand for luxury items. Evan if PM Daytona will cost USD 10k you might not find any buyers.
5) Another factor is that governments are printing money and giving to people in order for them not to starve. This will drive inflation or maybe even hyperinflation as mass of money will be much gigher and that will drive all prices up. This could easily result in situation that e.g. PM Daytona will cost $100,000 :)

Everything will depend how long this crisis lasts and what will happen with businesses around the world. Now nobody cares what games Rolex AD or grey market dealers are playing.

[2JHead]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

Conversely, I'm sensing a little butthurt from some that are having a hard time coming to terms that maybe they grossly overpaid for their second hand steel Rolex in the last few years and that their watch isn't as valuable as they would like to project...

Totally

[NorcalBlue]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

Conversely, I'm sensing a little butthurt from some that are having a hard time coming to terms that maybe they grossly overpaid for their second hand steel Rolex in the last few years and that their watch isn't as valuable as they would like to project...

Yes sir. Delusion is setting in. Wait until the mass white-collar corporate America jobs start going bu-bye. Rolex isn't immune to a deep global recession. They will fall and fall hard. June/July timeframe will be good buying. All that said, sure hope I'm wrong and this economy holds together somehow, but I'm not feeling it.

[Anestheticsaregood]

Originally Posted by Eva123

I did not read the whole thread, however my thoughts are the following:

1) Some people are making comparisons with 2008 financial crisis and trying to make predictions on that. Wrong. This coronovirus crisis is very unique as it affects all countries, all markets, all industries.
2) Before this virus crisis there were quite a lot rich people who could afford Rolex, Patek, RM watches, however after this crisis a lot of business will go bankrupt. Even if you were very rich, had a lot of businesses, investments, your assets can be wiped out very easily.
3) There is a general very bad mood everywhere, many people d not think about purchasing anything which is associated with luxury items. E.g. my financial position is quite ok, I still have a job and can work remotely but buying food only and pay for utilities. Do not intend to buy anything elese.
4) The above factors might cause a very big shrinkage in demand for luxury items. Evan if PM Daytona will cost USD 10k you might not find any buyers.
5) Another factor is that governments are printing money and giving to people in order for them not to starve. This will drive inflation or maybe even hyperinflation as mass of money will be much gigher and that will drive all prices up. This could easily result in situation that e.g. PM Daytona will cost $100,000 :)

Everything will depend how long this crisis lasts and what will happen with businesses around the world. Now nobody cares what games Rolex AD or grey market dealers are playing.

Agree. It’s a scary situation the whole world
Is in. Stay safe people

[Snoop_]

Originally Posted by Anestheticsaregood

Agree. It’s a scary situation the whole world
Is in. Stay safe people

I agree. I am more concerned about lack of ventilators during global pandemic instead getting a good deal on Rolex.

[LigerBelair]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

Conversely, I'm sensing a little butthurt from some that are having a hard time coming to terms that maybe they grossly overpaid for their second hand steel Rolex in the last few years and that their watch isn't as valuable as they would like to project...

Well said.

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by 2JHead

Totally

[VegasMilgauss]

What goes up..

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

Conversely, I'm sensing a little butthurt from some that are having a hard time coming to terms that maybe they grossly overpaid for their second hand steel Rolex in the last few years and that their watch isn't as valuable as they would like to project...

Proof that the whole SS Rolex pandemonium was/is an artificial "bubble".
Does anyone really thing a Hulk is worth 16K, SS Daytona is worth 25K, SS BLRO is worth 16K, SS SkyD worth 24K ???? Hilarious. Some are saying the bubble won't burst because Rolex is closed therefore supply is still small. I have a good feeling demand is dropping like a rock the longer this pandemic continues to close world economies. Last thing on anyone's mind out there in the real world is a new SS sport model Rolex. This forum is hardly an accurate representation of the real world.

[VacherObsessive]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

How much will they lose if they don't sell any product at all? You can't eat a Rolex. You can (and probably will be forced to) offload your stock to pay outstanding debt and running costs.

And if there is literally no one to buy any of it?