Is demand real?

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by Chester01

I’m confused. You say demand has gone up. I partially agree. Demand has shifted from two tone and gold and the DJ/DD models to the SS models and Rolex has kept the ratios the same. So demand for the SS models has gone up. Certain demographics demand has gone up, and in certain demographics gone down. Do you really think having the hundreds of thousands of gray market watches back in the hands of AD would not make it easier for most to access them?

It’s like widgets. Let’s say there are 100k made by company x and sent to 100 sellers. Now 10 other sellers buy up all the widgets and jack the price. Now instead of having 100 sellers, folks have less to go to and have to pay more. Increase demand? Not necessarily, pinched off supply. Like putting you thumb on the nozzle of the hose, same water just being pinched.


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Again though. So many assumptions.

Using your assumption.

There are 100k widgets. But 150k people want a widget.

10 grey market sellers see a new opportunity to cash in, pay over the odds for a bunch of widgets but do so on the basis that in this current must have society people will pay 2x the price to get a widget now.

Of course 100 other (let’s call them chrono 24 sellers) adverse widgets at massively inflated prices they don’t have yet. Bit when they get a bite they hope they can still pay over the odds and make a profit on the sale.

I think you are over thinking this.

It’s probably nothing more than simple economics. Demand outstrips supply so market price goes up.

ADs are tied to MRSP (mostly) so greys take advantage.

If ADs could sell at market price the greys would have no market for sales at a premium and would be back to selling discounted watches like before.


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[Gary.]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

These "cold call" incoming posts are leaving out pertinent details, such as not including the exact reference, not disclosing referrals or other connections to the dealer etc.

It creates the illusion of these references being easy pickings. It's not fair to newer members who don't know better and so they get frustrated when these false expectations can't be met.

Good points. Some of these posts are a little info'-light.

Another point may be that many ADs (mine included) are carrying over wait lists from cancelled models (those waiting for 116610LVs are getting asked if they want Cermits).

[johnjm]

Originally Posted by Gary.

Good points. Some of these posts are a little info'-light.

Another point may be that many ADs (mine included) are carrying over wait lists from cancelled models (those waiting for 116610LVs are getting asked if they want Cermits).

Agree. There is a lot at play at ADs and it’s really naive for people to make assumptions based on a few incoming posts in an online forum.

A good example is the sub I got a year ago. It was from an AD where I purchased nothing in the past. This AD doesn’t do lists, they merely sell to those they choose. I went past to send a watch or two in for a service so I guess you can say he knew I was a watch person and have been around the block.

When I dropped off my wife’s jewelry to get a valuation for insurance I just asked him if he had a sub for me as I was keen for one, and he brought it out. I wasn’t a stranger but he really didn’t have to.

I can imagine the other sorts that walk in and demand and moan. Like everything else in life, you won’t get far with that attitude.

At my usual AD I’ve been on the list for a watch or two for years, and I personally know relatives who skip the queues at the same ADs. What must I do about it? Get angry? What good would that do.

I am over the game, but That doesn’t mean I don’t have the time to play it a little.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Devildog

Again though. So many assumptions.

Using your assumption.

There are 100k widgets. But 150k people want a widget.

10 grey market sellers see a new opportunity to cash in, pay over the odds for a bunch of widgets but do so on the basis that in this current must have society people will pay 2x the price to get a widget now.

Of course 100 other (let’s call them chrono 24 sellers) adverse widgets at massively inflated prices they don’t have yet. Bit when they get a bite they hope they can still pay over the odds and make a profit on the sale.

I think you are over thinking this.

It’s probably nothing more than simple economics. Demand outstrips supply so market price goes up.

ADs are tied to MRSP (mostly) so greys take advantage.

If ADs could sell at market price the greys would have no market for sales at a premium and would be back to selling discounted watches like before.


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Yes. However supply and demand is a valid argument and yes gray market can raise the prices and charge more than MSRP. But the sheer number of them out there daytonas, hulks, what ever you want are indeed available. The fact is this. You and I can have any model we want in or wrist by Thursday this week, albeit we have to pony up more depending on the model. But the supply is there-AD have some, and gray market has some.

Now a real supply and demand argument. Do you really think you and I can really source let’s say a Picasso by weeks end. This is not an assumption, the answer is no. There are a finite amount and no more being made anywhere. This may hold for vintage Rolex. But no, there are no problems sourcing a current model Rolex. There are problems sourcing from an AD in most cases. If these facts don’t clue you on to the fact that the market is fabricating demand, I don’t know what to tell you my friend, go make the gray market richer then.


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[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by johnjm

Agree. There is a lot at play at ADs and it’s really naive for people to make assumptions based on a few incoming posts in an online forum.

I think its rather naive to make any assumptions about Rolex at all. Anybody can say anything the like (and frequently do) without any kind of data to back it, because little exists.

You can kind of track it, but only over a small distance before assumptions have to be made, at which point it is meaningless and susceptible to any kind of spin you care to put on it. So here's my naive anecdotal spin:

How many watches does Rolex produce a year? Maybe in the region of 800K? If that assumption is sound and can be extrapolated backwards, that's maybe 6-8 million watches leaving the factory in the past ten years.

How many people post on here about the lack of availability, perceived shortage, the death of Rolex unless they change their ways, AD "games", and the evil grey market (unless of course, the sellers are selling something under MSRP, which is their more usual MO)? I'm talking people, individuals, not the number of times they post or how many accounts they create.

100? 1,000? 10,000? 100,000?

Even if we have 10,000 people a year posting on TRF about this (which we obviously don't, although sometimes it may feel like it), what percentage of happy Rolex owners is this equivalent to? How much of a problem is it really compared to the number of watches in circulation? Not big, is my guess.

What is the likelihood that Rolex will go down the drain if they don't mend their ways and stamp out the grey market for their watches? Not big, is my guess.

What is Rolex's index of concern that I can't get a SS BLRO from my AD this week at MSRP? Non existent, is my guess.

Every minute spent complaining about something you can't do is a minute wasted that you could have used to do research, refine the plan place, earn some more money, get closer to your goal. If you think you will never reach your goal, you won't.

[1William]

Interesting thread and I am following the comments. While much of the discussion is based on what we know as consumers and WIS there is very little actual data to back up some or most of this speculation. Many good guesses and logic has lead us to make some broad based assumptions that are probably close to right. But in the end that is all that it is without numbers from Rolex, AD's and the ever shifting Grey Market, we just piece it together the best we can. In the end, I think we are still talking about money and not watches as there is no lack of watches to be purchased. We want them at msrp and not Grey prices. I get it but it is not happening, at least for a bit. So on we go.

[drfrankenstein]

I disagree re: lack of data. As other posters have said, C24 if nothing else, is representative of the market. Any watch you are looking for can be had on there, worldwide.

I’ve been following BLNR on there and on any given day there are 700-800 watches listed with the lowest price of $13k. Do you think this is “actual market price” of this watch? I doubt it. I would argue that it should trade at or under MSRP assuming these are all motivated sellers.

I looked up Hulk yesterday. 331 available, lowest price $16k. Do you think there are significant more that 300 people trying to source a Hulk at present? Could be but I doubt it.

I believe the poster who said the demand, though real, is manipulated. Hence the free market theory doesn’t seem to hold. This is also probably because Grays obtained these items at above MSRP, so they have to sell it for even more to turn a profit. If these were in an ADs case there probably would be room to negotiate as ADs benefit by turning over inventory.

[1William]

There are a lot of factors to Chrono24 and many times what we see is not even being held by the seller. The seller will source the watch after you pay and many times it is drop shipped. Chrono24 is not representative of the market as the market is not easily defined. Also factors such as condition, age, warranty status and price also impact. As to the question of do you think more than 300 people are trying to source a Hulk the answer is yes if it is at msrp or close. The answer is no at 20k plus. Once again speculating and defining the market off one source of Data, Chrono24, makes the point.

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by 1William

There are a lot of factors to Chrono24 and many times what we see is not even being held by the seller. The seller will source the watch after you pay and many times it is drop shipped. Chrono24 is not representative of the market as the market is not easily defined. Also factors such as condition, age, warranty status and price also impact. As to the question of do you think more than 300 people are trying to source a Hulk the answer is yes if it is at msrp or close. The answer is no at 20k plus. Once again speculating and defining the market off one source of Data, Chrono24, makes the point.

I didn't say it's perfect but it is the closest to what we see as broad based market with people selling many of the same watches that ADs claim to get very few of per year - doesn't matter if it is being held by the seller or not, it is available for sale.

I also noticed you ignored the data provided on the BLNR - which I've checked weekly since the pandemic started.

re: Hulk, I agree with you, will be interested to see if the one at $16k moves.

I don't think the data is perfect but it's what we have to go on and it is certainly more reliable than listening to one off accounts of conversations with ADs who have their own motivations.

[macrowatch]

Best data points remain what “market makers” are willing to pay and how wide the spread is.

[zjd168]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Yes. However supply and demand is a valid argument and yes gray market can raise the prices and charge more than MSRP. But the sheer number of them out there daytonas, hulks, what ever you want are indeed available. The fact is this. You and I can have any model we want in or wrist by Thursday this week, albeit we have to pony up more depending on the model. But the supply is there-AD have some, and gray market has some.

Now a real supply and demand argument. Do you really think you and I can really source let’s say a Picasso by weeks end. This is not an assumption, the answer is no. There are a finite amount and no more being made anywhere. This may hold for vintage Rolex. But no, there are no problems sourcing a current model Rolex. There are problems sourcing from an AD in most cases. If these facts don’t clue you on to the fact that the market is fabricating demand, I don’t know what to tell you my friend, go make the gray market richer then.


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The demand is real, face it.

Just think about China, the 2nd GDP in the world and getting close to #1 anytime in the very near future. 1.5 billion population, just assuming only 20% of them reaching the average of US (very conservative assumption) and the other 80% are abject poverty who can't afford any luxury (which is not true, just for the sake of argument), it is already big enough to spawn the equivalence of the luxury and Rolex buying power/market of the US, which had the number 1 Rolex sales until early 2010s. Chinese people basically buy up Rolex/AP/PP from all over the world literally. Chinese grey markets (Daiguo) have been a booming business for years and I witness the Rolex prices (Sub, Hulk, BLNR, DJ, e.g.) increasing from 15-20% discounts (before 2017) to big premium with the rest of the world. I am very sure people in China and HK with similar level of incomes are more willing to spend on luxury items than people in US.

This is the Chinese Rolex buying power that basically was negligible before 2000 and very small before 2010. On top of that how about the new consumers from India of similar population and rising economy?

No plan to argue and anyone can choose not to believe any of these though.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by zjd168

The demand is real, face it.

Just think about China, the 2nd GDP in the world and getting close to #1 anytime in the very near future. 1.5 billion population, just assuming only 20% of them reaching the average of US (very conservative assumption) and the other 80% are abject poverty who can't afford any luxury (which is not true, just for the sake of argument), it is already big enough to spawn the equivalence of the luxury and Rolex buying power/market of the US, which had the number 1 Rolex sales until early 2010s. Chinese people basically buy up Rolex/AP/PP from all over the world literally. Chinese grey markets (Daiguo) have been a booming business for years and I witness the Rolex prices (Sub, Hulk, BLNR, DJ, e.g.) increasing from 15-20% discounts (before 2017) to big premium with the rest of the world. I am very sure people in China and HK with similar level of incomes are more willing to spend on luxury items than people in US.

This is the Chinese Rolex buying power that basically was negligible before 2000 and very small before 2010. On top of that how about the new consumers from India of similar population and rising economy?

No plan to argue and anyone can choose not to believe any of these though.

Yes. I’ve been over this in my posts above. Yes, the middle class has expanded in Asia. Do you really think the middle class buy Rolex?

You simply don’t have an argument unless you can refute my point. My point is that we can have any Rolex in our wrist by weeks end, period. That’s not a debatable point. That’s not a real supply and demand issue it’s a few cornering the market on luxury goods which are not regulated and making money on that.

Where do you think the gray market is getting their watches lol. It’s the AD. The gray market is flush with Rolex any model you want. If you can’t tell your being had I don’t know what to tell you.

The demand may have gone up a bit, but it’s clear tastes have shifted from gold and two tone ubiquitous in the 80’s and 90’s to ss. Rolex has not increased production. But even with the shift, we can have any watch in our wrists by weeks end. That’s no rarity my friend.


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[drfrankenstein]

^ Agree. I think there's enough there to connect the dots.

It doesn't matter how the GDs are getting watches either. They have them and the ADs don't. I just think that the lack of watches in AD cases allows for relative cornering of the market and artificial price increases.

Fwiw, this same thing happens with sneakers. Nike releases new Jordans on the app, everyone logs in, tries to get them and fails. 3 min later all these secondary sites - StockX etc. have them at a 3x mark up. It's a hype machine.

[UK_]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

I disagree re: lack of data. As other posters have said, C24 if nothing else, is representative of the market. Any watch you are looking for can be had on there, worldwide.

I’ve been following BLNR on there and on any given day there are 700-800 watches listed with the lowest price of $13k. Do you think this is “actual market price” of this watch? I doubt it. I would argue that it should trade at or under MSRP assuming these are all motivated sellers.

I looked up Hulk yesterday. 331 available, lowest price $16k. Do you think there are significant more that 300 people trying to source a Hulk at present? Could be but I doubt it.

I believe the poster who said the demand, though real, is manipulated. Hence the free market theory doesn’t seem to hold. This is also probably because Grays obtained these items at above MSRP, so they have to sell it for even more to turn a profit. If these were in an ADs case there probably would be room to negotiate as ADs benefit by turning over inventory.

How many of those watches are actually for sale? Do you know?

You can argue all you like with a seller, in the Uk if you want to buy a BLNR, your going to pay £12k, unless you can source form an AD. So that is the market value, not the MSRP.

Are there more than 300 people trying to source a hulk? Of course there is, but supply and demand does not work in a binary ‘1 more than is available’, the point is enough people want a Hulk that sellers know they can get about £15k for one, so they will wait to get that. Because this is how supply and demand works.


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[zjd168]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Yes. I’ve been over this in my posts above. Yes, the middle class has expanded in Asia. Do you really think the middle class buy Rolex?

You simply don’t have an argument unless you can refute my point. My point is that we can have any Rolex in our wrist by weeks end, period. That’s not a debatable point. That’s not a real supply and demand issue it’s a few cornering the market on luxury goods which are not regulated and making money on that.

Where do you think the gray market is getting their watches lol. It’s the AD. The gray market is flush with Rolex any model you want. If you can’t tell your being had I don’t know what to tell you.

The demand may have gone up a bit, but it’s clear tastes have shifted from gold and two tone ubiquitous in the 80’s and 90’s to ss. Rolex has not increased production. But even with the shift, we can have any watch in our wrists by weeks end. That’s no rarity my friend.


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If the demand increases 200% (say 150% from new money/consumers and 50% from collectors who are now interested in models because they are hot and desirable. Me as example when I started 10 years ago I didn't plan to have more than 3 SS Rolex but now planning to add any model if I like it and can get at MSRP ). While the supply is about the same, what do you think the price will go?

I was frequent in some Chinese watch chat groups before. A few years ago there was even a very popular Chinese forum like TRF but with many more threads and users. The group members knowledge on horology and Rolex in general were no comparison to the TRF, but their willingness to spend on watches with their income levels and the openness of their financial situation in the discussions were very impressive and kind of unseen here.

Again you can choose not to believe the scale of the demand increase from consumers. Totally agree there are no official numbers that can unambiguously prove right or wrong of most opinions, plus it was not my intent to come here to refute anyone's points to prove who is right. Let's agree to disagree.

[UK_]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Yes. I’ve been over this in my posts above. Yes, the middle class has expanded in Asia. Do you really think the middle class buy Rolex?

You simply don’t have an argument unless you can refute my point. My point is that we can have any Rolex in our wrist by weeks end, period. That’s not a debatable point. That’s not a real supply and demand issue it’s a few cornering the market on luxury goods which are not regulated and making money on that.

Where do you think the gray market is getting their watches lol. It’s the AD. The gray market is flush with Rolex any model you want. If you can’t tell your being had I don’t know what to tell you.

The demand may have gone up a bit, but it’s clear tastes have shifted from gold and two tone ubiquitous in the 80’s and 90’s to ss. Rolex has not increased production. But even with the shift, we can have any watch in our wrists by weeks end. That’s no rarity my friend.


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No one is saying they are rare - they are not.

But demand is massively higher than supply, and to me that is a simple fact.

You keep dismissing the rise of China, and the sheer buying power they now have, but believe me, it’s massive. I suspect we see this more in Europe than the US but don’t know, but a walk down Knightsbridge gives you an idea.

To dismiss this massive demand as ‘a bit’ is your call, but I don’t see how you can.

Also, just because you can obtain something easily (for a price) does not mean it is not in demand, it’s price will reflect its demand, and its level of supply.

In demand tickets for concerts are another similar good - often sold below the genuine market value by some kind of lottery. What happens? Huge secondary market with big premiums, because demand is so great.


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[UK_]

Originally Posted by zjd168

If the demand increases 200% (say 150% from new money/consumers and 50% from collectors who are now interested in models because they are hot and desirable. Me as example when I started 10 years ago I didn't plan to have more than 3 SS Rolex but now planning to add any model if I like it and can get at MSRP ). While the supply is about the same, what do you think the price will go?

I was frequent in some Chinese watch chat groups before. A few years ago there was even a very popular Chinese forum like TRF but with many more threads and users. The group members knowledge on horology and Rolex in general were no comparison to the TRF, but their willingness to spend on watches on their income level and the openness of their financial situation in the discussions were very impressive and kind of unseen here.

Again you can choose not to believe the scale of the demand increase from consumers. Totally agree there are no official numbers that can unambiguously prove you are wrong and it was not my intent to come here to refute anyone's points to prove who is right. Let's agree to disagree.

Spot on!


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[Bcain24]

Demand is definitely real, I think it's that Rolex had a backlog due to AD's being shut down and now Ad's are getting the inventory they were supposed to get, and it's just seems like more people are getting lucky. It also could be fear/consumer spending is down because I remember right before everything shut down people were getting calls for batgirls and other more exclusive SS watches

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by UK_

How many of those watches are actually for sale? Do you know?

You can argue all you like with a seller, in the Uk if you want to buy a BLNR, your going to pay £12k, unless you can source form an AD. So that is the market value, not the MSRP.

Are there more than 300 people trying to source a hulk? Of course there is, but supply and demand does not work in a binary ‘1 more than is available’, the point is enough people want a Hulk that sellers know they can get about £15k for one, so they will wait to get that. Because this is how supply and demand works.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

745 listed on C24 today. Lowest price is $13.3k US. These are all for sale. I don't know what you mean by your first sentence.

If these don't move (hint- they haven't in 3 months) then it ceases to be the market value. Maybe people have price alerts in place and the minute someone lists one for under $13k it's sold - then that is the market value.

The market value is the price that it sells, not the price it's listed for.

re: Hulk, of course supply and demand isn't binary. But if they don't move at $16k then it's too expensive for the market. I'm not as confident re: Hulk because I haven't been following it. I am confident re: BLNR though as I've been watching it for awhile.

Again, no one is arguing there aren't supply and demand issues. What I am arguing is the GDs skew these in their favor and in some cases (BLNR) they are selling at unreasonable/above market asking prices.

[BLACKHORSE 6]

I think the demand is very real.

I was at my AD last week. I live in a small, but affluent, town that's about 1.5 hours from major city. The sales manager at the AD is a family friend that we've known since childhood and the owner of the store was there as well.

Had a great conversation about this with both of them. They are trying to build and expand their business locally (they sell high end jewelry as well). They have "a list" but they don't pay much attention to it as it includes people from the city and out of state that are just looking to buy whatever stainless steel model that they can get their hands on. Their goal is to sell every watch they possibly can to a local buyer, one that they can build a relationship with. They easily sell every SS Rolex before it ever hits the display case, and it's always to people that are local to our town. Doesn't matter how much they've spent in the store before, as long as they're local.

This is exactly how I got my 116520 back in 2013. Our friend knew that it was my grail watch, so she called my wife when she got a shipment in with a black dial SS Daytona and offered it to her, even though we had never purchased a watch or piece of jewelry from them before. My wife jumped at the chance and I still wear the watch every day. I've purchased several pieces of jewelry from them for my wife since. The next watch I buy will be a DayDate as a gift for her. I know that I'll add a SS Submariner to my collection in the future. Through that one offering of a Daytona several years ago where they ignored their list, they secured a customer over the long term. Maybe its a different dynamic in a big city, but I imagine all the other small town dealers have the same thinking. It means that all the people that call them from God knows where are going to be frustrated.

I can't wait for the days of having all the models back in the display cases to come again (and I think they will). In the mean time, we'll just have to suffer through this first world problem!

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by UK_

No one is saying they are rare - they are not.

But demand is massively higher than supply, and to me that is a simple fact.

You keep dismissing the rise of China, and the sheer buying power they now have, but believe me, it’s massive. I suspect we see this more in Europe than the US but don’t know, but a walk down Knightsbridge gives you an idea.

To dismiss this massive demand as ‘a bit’ is your call, but I don’t see how you can.

Also, just because you can obtain something easily (for a price) does not mean it is not in demand, it’s price will reflect its demand, and its level of supply.

In demand tickets for concerts are another similar good - often sold below the genuine market value by some kind of lottery. What happens? Huge secondary market with big premiums, because demand is so great.


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There are plenty available. Just at different stores.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by zjd168

If the demand increases 200% (say 150% from new money/consumers and 50% from collectors who are now interested in models because they are hot and desirable. Me as example when I started 10 years ago I didn't plan to have more than 3 SS Rolex but now planning to add any model if I like it and can get at MSRP ). While the supply is about the same, what do you think the price will go?

I was frequent in some Chinese watch chat groups before. A few years ago there was even a very popular Chinese forum like TRF but with many more threads and users. The group members knowledge on horology and Rolex in general were no comparison to the TRF, but their willingness to spend on watches with their income levels and the openness of their financial situation in the discussions were very impressive and kind of unseen here.

Again you can choose not to believe the scale of the demand increase from consumers. Totally agree there are no official numbers that can unambiguously prove right or wrong of most opinions, plus it was not my intent to come here to refute anyone's points to prove who is right. Let's agree to disagree.

I will agree with you, once I go to my gray dealer and they cannot access the model I want. Then I will agree demand has gone up.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by zjd168

The demand is real, face it.

Just think about China, the 2nd GDP in the world and getting close to #1 anytime in the very near future. 1.5 billion population, just assuming only 20% of them reaching the average of US (very conservative assumption) and the other 80% are abject poverty who can't afford any luxury (which is not true, just for the sake of argument), it is already big enough to spawn the equivalence of the luxury and Rolex buying power/market of the US, which had the number 1 Rolex sales until early 2010s. Chinese people basically buy up Rolex/AP/PP from all over the world literally. Chinese grey markets (Daiguo) have been a booming business for years and I witness the Rolex prices (Sub, Hulk, BLNR, DJ, e.g.) increasing from 15-20% discounts (before 2017) to big premium with the rest of the world. I am very sure people in China and HK with similar level of incomes are more willing to spend on luxury items than people in US.

This is the Chinese Rolex buying power that basically was negligible before 2000 and very small before 2010. On top of that how about the new consumers from India of similar population and rising economy?

No plan to argue and anyone can choose not to believe any of these though.

Let me clarify. I’m not so much debating that demand has gone up, what I’m debating is there is plenty to go around.

Look, you and I can do this too. Let’s say we say let’s pull our money together and buy up 90% of i don’t know, let’s say paper towels. Now we jack up the price, and say if you want it you have to come to us. So people can decide if they want to pay. But now that we have them, other stores have less. Quite simple really.


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[UK_]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

745 listed on C24 today. Lowest price is $13.3k US. These are all for sale. I don't know what you mean by your first sentence.

If these don't move (hint- they haven't in 3 months) then it ceases to be the market value. Maybe people have price alerts in place and the minute someone lists one for under $13k it's sold - then that is the market value.

The market value is the price that it sells, not the price it's listed for.

re: Hulk, of course supply and demand isn't binary. But if they don't move at $16k then it's too expensive for the market. I'm not as confident re: Hulk because I haven't been following it. I am confident re: BLNR though as I've been watching it for awhile.

Again, no one is arguing there aren't supply and demand issues. What I am arguing is the GDs skew these in their favor and in some cases (BLNR) they are selling at unreasonable/above market asking prices.

You have no idea how many of them are for sale. We know some of them are not actually in possession if anyone, if someone buys it, the dealer will go looking for it.

‘Unreasonable/above market value’ is your opinion, try to buy one of someone with that argument.

A grey dealer will buy a flipped BLNR for £10k and sell it for £12k, that is fact. £12k is the price the market will support, so is the market price.


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[MRPWRPATX21]

I think a big part of the current environment is the nature of what was released this year- not a ton of diversity in the new models. New Sub is different in a number of ways, but it's still a black Sub. Green version is just a different green than they had the last few years, but a re-make of something they put out before. The OPs are what they are, and I don't think you'll find the average watch enthusiast who is on a list for Subs/GMTs/Daytonas/SkyDs/etc. jumping all over the OPs...slightly different market on the whole, I'd imagine. Because everything got backed up for a while both in production and in supply chain, I think you're seeing a lot of Subs come into the market in a concentrated manner, rather than spread across April-September. Then the OPs are a little different story in that they were always likely to have been pumped in at relatively high levels compared to some other models.

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by UK_

You have no idea how many of them are for sale. We know some of them are not actually in possession if anyone, if someone buys it, the dealer will go looking for it.

‘Unreasonable/above market value’ is your opinion, try to buy one of someone with that argument.

A grey dealer will buy a flipped BLNR for £10k and sell it for £12k, that is fact. £12k is the price the market will support, so is the market price.


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They are listed for sale on the website. Why does this mean I have no idea? Maybe they aren't motivated sellers but they are listed for sale.

As someone said earlier, to list a watch on C24 you have to have it in your possession.

Lastly, this is not my opinion. This is my observation following these watches for 5 months. The amount of inventory and price hasn't changed significantly, they aren't moving. This is the market at work - I don't have to convince anyone of anything, the numbers speak for themselves.

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by MRPWRPATX21

I think a big part of the current environment is the nature of what was released this year- not a ton of diversity in the new models. New Sub is different in a number of ways, but it's still a black Sub. Green version is just a different green than they had the last few years, but a re-make of something they put out before. The OPs are what they are, and I don't think you'll find the average watch enthusiast who is on a list for Subs/GMTs/Daytonas/SkyDs/etc. jumping all over the OPs...slightly different market on the whole, I'd imagine. Because everything got backed up for a while both in production and in supply chain, I think you're seeing a lot of Subs come into the market in a concentrated manner, rather than spread across April-September. Then the OPs are a little different story in that they were always likely to have been pumped in at relatively high levels compared to some other models.

I agree much different than the GMT craze with BLNR (new color) and BLRO (updated oldie but goodie) - which seem newer and fresher than sub lineup.

I'm sure they'll release the blue bezel sub in SS eventually.

[johnjm]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Let me clarify. I’m not so much debating that demand has gone up, what I’m debating is there is plenty to go around.

Look, you and I can do this too. Let’s say we say let’s pull our money together and buy up 90% of i don’t know, let’s say paper towels. Now we jack up the price, and say if you want it you have to come to us. So people can decide if they want to pay. But now that we have them, other stores have less. Quite simple really.


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You would only buy all the TP in the world if there was a massive demand and you could make a great mark up.

See what I did there.


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[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by johnjm

You would only buy all the TP in the world if there was a massive demand and you could make a great mark up.

See what I did there.


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Of course there needs to be some demand, you can’t corner the market with products that are worthless. But you can mark up anything where there is a steady market if you can control the supply.

[zjd168]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Let me clarify. I’m not so much debating that demand has gone up, what I’m debating is there is plenty to go around.

Look, you and I can do this too. Let’s say we say let’s pull our money together and buy up 90% of i don’t know, let’s say paper towels. Now we jack up the price, and say if you want it you have to come to us. So people can decide if they want to pay. But now that we have them, other stores have less. Quite simple really.


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You make them looking simple but they are not necessary the truth, as you are assuming ADs selling the majority directly to the grey dealers instead of to the hands of users, it is your opinion but not necessary a fact. For example I got 3 SS professional models after 2018 directly from ADs, way after the craziness, I still have all of them and I am definitely not a grey seller, nor am I a vip either.

Grey got their inventory from users and flippers too (I think mostly, but again don't want to argue as they are all different). Users/collectors can become flippers when they want the 1-2k quick profits. In your example users will start storing and flipping paper towels when they see $$$ but first of all the huge demands must be there, especially for luxury items (please keep in mind this is not food or Covid-19 vaccine/medicine). Otherwise grey can do the same thing to other brands outside of Rolex SS/AP/PP and enjoy the same "success", but did they even try? The grey dealers can't even do that a few years ago to Rolex as Hulk/BLNR were selling at discounts from grey.

What was changed since then? I believe it is the demand, the demand from new money and collectors. Not talking about just the new consumers from BRICK, please just look at how many new threads here from new users asking Rolex watches as investment or price speculation, also when watches are in demand the high demands can self-fulfill and create more demands like nuclear chain reaction. Collectors before w/o too much interest in Hulk or Batgirl will now want one. This is not just applied to Rolex but to all luxury goods. Many PP Vips for example didn't want 5711 before now suddenly are in the waiting list and very mad.

Again people can apply different theories to explain all of these observation based on what they are willing to believe or accept, and I already presented the evidence to support mine :-)