Now I’m convinced the prices are just nuts!

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by Cabaiguan

“Now” you’re convinced? Lol.

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[ColdWater]

How much longer will local jewelry stores dedicate 20% of their floor space to empty cases? My AD has had six empty cases since 2018.

If demand continues to outrun supply I can see Rolex reversing AD floorspace requirements, effectively limiting sells to the general public. Watches will be totally allocated. That's effectively what's happening now.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Plus I doubt very seriously you’ll see the market continue to grow when capital gains taxes go back to the levels they were at in 2015 when they were plenty of Rolex in the cases.

You mean when the long term CG rate goes from 15% back to 15%?

[Monty22]

Originally Posted by Andad

Rolex is making $2400 on a $13000 sale.



Someone is making a $ but Rolex is hardly printing money.

Thank you. Rolex is done with the transaction once the AD receives the shipment


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[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by DuckaDiesel

All I want is an explorer 1 or maybe an air-king. These are watch enthusiasts’ pieces, just plain boring tool watches.
I get that sub, gmt, daytona demands a high premium if non watch people are buying them up but an airking/explorer 1?
The way its going for me I will give up waiting.
For me, being that its the first Rolex, I d like to get it at an AD so I go through the entire process at least once.
I would buy a watch from a grey dealer for a discount but a $1200 premium on a new airking, I thought ppl hated these. Also $2200 on a 214270...
But obviously someone is buying them.
I am not sure how this journey ends for me.
ADs will continue to call their vip customers to offer them whatever model before they call me. VIPs will off course buy them to flip for slight profit if they don’t want it. The vip/ad relationships will continue and the cycle goes on. So, unless you already have a relationship with an AD that train has passed, no way you ll catch up now but I digress...





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You’ll definitely get an air king with a bit of effort from an AD,

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

You mean when the long term CG rate goes from 15% back to 15%?

Nope that’s not what I mean.

[mailman]

Originally Posted by Robert Bruce

Folks, never, ever pay grey market prices for a Rolex. It just supports an industry that victimizes and profiteers. To me, it's borderline criminality. It's like scalpers who find a way to purloin opportunities to buy something desirable and then resell it at robbery prices. They should all burn in hell. I've never sold a watch for more than I paid for it. If I did, I'd just be part of the problem.

That's a terrible thing to say about them. No one forces people to go to a TS and buy something. People do it on their own free will.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by fixinbones

David SW has a new OP41 for $12,975. This watch retails for $5,900. It’s a cute watch with the new colorful dial colors but this is no SS Daytona, or is it? And please no comments telling me thats the asking price, not the selling price. I can almost guarantee this watch doesn’t get sold for less then $12-12,500.

Ok

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by mailman

That's a terrible thing to say about them. No one forces people to go to a TS and buy something. People do it on their own free will.

Exactly. He apparently doesn’t like capitalism and the free market. Odd ideology and a tough position to take with a Rolex on your wrist.

[arcadelt]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Exactly. He apparently doesn’t like capitalism and the free market. Odd ideology and a tough position to take with a Rolex on your wrist.

Free market implies that everything is operating with minimal friction, everything is above board and transparent, and there is no market manipulation going on. There is a modicum of regulation to try and ensure this is so in the case of the stock market, but little similar in the Wild West of trading luxury goods.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by arcadelt

Free market implies that everything is operating with minimal friction, everything is above board and transparent, and there is no market manipulation going on. There is a modicum of regulation to try and ensure this is so in the case of the stock market, but little similar in the Wild West of trading luxury goods.

The grey market sells to the highest bidder without games or intent of buying other items. There is absolutely no strings attached or hidden obligations. It’s as pure of a free market transaction you can get for a luxury product.

[dtwer]

Once again, if anything, this brings home the fact yet again that Rolex is simply the world's most brilliant marketer. Who else can turn an underdog reference into a shooting star in a matter of a year like this?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Robert Bruce

Folks, never, ever pay grey market prices for a Rolex. It just supports an industry that victimizes and profiteers. To me, it's borderline criminality. It's like scalpers who find a way to purloin opportunities to buy something desirable and then resell it at robbery prices. They should all burn in hell. I've never sold a watch for more than I paid for it. If I did, I'd just be part of the problem.

If I buy a Rolex and don't end up liking it, I should keep it for life, lest it have a value higher than I paid a year ago? Seriously ill-informed comment.

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by EEpro

If I buy a Rolex and don't end up liking it, I should keep it for life, lest it have a value higher than I paid a year ago? Seriously ill-informed comment.

I would love to know what his house is worth, chances are a lot more than he paid for it. I wonder if he will sell it for what he paid

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

I would love to know what his house is worth, chances are a lot more than he paid for it. I wonder if he will sell it for what he paid

It's the realtors fault listing houses for market price and taking a 6% cut!!! Grrrr!

[Cryten]

Originally Posted by Mystro

The grey market sells to the highest bidder without games or intent of buying other items. There is absolutely no strings attached or hidden obligations. It’s as pure of a free market transaction you can get for a luxury product.

The grey market manipulates the market by hoarding. They've created artificial scarcity and jacked the price accordingly. That may be the free market, but it's still manipulated.

[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by vh2k

It’s a very versatile piece. It can be dressed up or down... and on alligator or leather, it can pass for a $15,000 watch.

Um no it can't. Social media people aka influencers make people think it can. No matter what you do to an OP it can not pass in the same circles as a Daytona, 321 Ed White Speedy, a Blancpain, JLC or even IWC.

For this goes to show the incredible marketing genius that was Hans Wilsdorf...Rolex became Rolex because of his marketing and positioning genius.
Today his legacy lives very strong to the point that it has made it's lowliest least expensive least tech watch desired, simply by changing the colors on the dial.
This simple change could only have been as successful during the hippy 60's or the social media controlled supply world of the new decade.

There is more demand than supply, that's clear. But Rolex has full ability and knowledge of this spike which was seen spiking way back in 2015. By now they could have built two additional buildings to increase production, but they are not stupid. They aren't Ford or Yeezy and their goal isn't to get a Rolex on everyone's wrist. They are positioning themselves in way as to take advantage of the demand and waiting times and increase the popularity of their whole portfolio.
The super rich are indeed buying diamond studded pm Pearlmasters, Daytonas and Day Dates. While the normal people selling organs for Submariners and Daytonas wait in line, they suddenly take interest in references like OP and DJs....well because they "are" a Rolex after all and DJs have always been popular and fit into any circle or situation and the new colorful OP says, hey I have a cheap inexpensive Rolex just for "fun you know", cool right.....not really because it's also now high in demand and market value.....so yeah....

Theirry Stern just flat out said we're cancelling the 5711 because we want to, we don't want to be known for this stainless steel thing. He's protecting his brand and company and employees(the artisans, watchmakers and even boutiques, super important overlooked detail for which he doesn't get enough credit).

Hans and Theirry are and were operating at a high level of brand positioning and leadership.

[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by Cryten

The grey market manipulates the market by hoarding. They've created artificial scarcity and jacked the price accordingly. That may be the free market, but it's still manipulated.

The grey market did this really.....
I highly disagree. The only circumstance in which I see a grey market manipulating is in the sneaker industry where Footlocker just about bought GOAT a sneaker resale platform, and there are other examples.
Which these platforms as well as grey dealers have sophisticated bots and arrangements in the industry to specifically target or in the case of Footlocker somehow find a way to funnel supply to the goat app which it then sells sneakers at market value.
Try to buy a pair of Yeezys or Jordans on release day......

Nothing like this is happening(yet) within the swiss watch industry. The grey dealers have connections with ADs but they aren't manipulating(maliciously) the market. Social media and a surge in certain wealth sectors has collided to give the real legitimate resellers a great business opportunity.
It happens in many industries, art, sneakers, sports memorabilia, cars...if you're lucky to be in that market during the surge, you're winning.
Realestate businesses were living the life in the early 2000s, lots of reality TV shows, house flippers killing it and then 2008 happened......

[RyanJ]

People need to stop saying demand outpaces supply for Rolex. Demand for these watches at MSRP outpaces supply. Otherwise, you can have any watch you want within 24-48 hours delivered to your door.

People who think the secondary market cannot set prices.... They absolutely can and do this very thing. If you were watching, they did this with the Hulk. Days before release day, all the major secondary sellers took down their Hulks. Right after Rolex announced new models, they put their Hulks back up at tremendously increased prices. How do you think secondary prices are set? They are set because the secondary market sells more to each other than they do to customers. They all know what they can buy and sell these for. If you follow any secondary sellers, they will flat out tell you this. We are looking to buy any X model right now. They will hold them, wait for supply to dwindle, then put them up at higher prices.

This is a perceived shortage so people can think they are getting something exclusive when they really are just buying a watch that millions also have.

Patek is also funny. Most only know Patek for their Nautilus and Aquanaut. The majority of their dress watches sit in ADs collecting dust and being sold at massive discounts on the secondary market. The exception being their truly high end pieces which are out of reach for most people anyway.

All of this is just a game. Wallets, purses, hand bags, shoes, etc... You see it in all luxury markets.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by arcadelt

Free market implies that everything is operating with minimal friction, everything is above board and transparent, and there is no market manipulation going on. There is a modicum of regulation to try and ensure this is so in the case of the stock market...

The stock market is very much manipulated, proven many times too. Let's not forget about frontrunning order flow like Robinhood-Citadel does to their 'customers.

[AdamW]

Folks, never, ever pay grey market prices for a Rolex. It just supports an industry that victimizes and profiteers. To me, it's borderline criminality. It's like scalpers who find a way to purloin opportunities to buy something desirable and then resell it at robbery prices. They should all burn in hell

THIS

Can't wait till the bubble bursts and they have to choke on their inventory.

[arcadelt]

Originally Posted by Mystro

The grey market sells to the highest bidder without games or intent of buying other items. There is absolutely no strings attached or hidden obligations. It’s as pure of a free market transaction you can get for a luxury product.

Except grey market dealers get their "high-demand" stock through a back door agreement with ADs who sell it to them at MSRP because they have an agreement with the manufacturer that they cannot sell it any higher. The AD probably gets a kickback from the grey market dealer who is not encumbered by such a contract with the manufacturer, and in the process both are cutting out another buyer who might have just wanted to own the watch rather than speculate on its resale but could not get it because of the back door arrangement. Sound less than pure to me.

[arcadelt]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

The stock market is very much manipulated, proven many times too. Let's not forget about frontrunning order flow like Robinhood-Citadel does to their 'customers.

Yes, hence the use of the words "modicum" and "try". At least we recently had a small taste of what can happen to level the playing field when a community gets together to take on the "less-than-pure" establishment. Maybe community of watch collectors could get together to do something similar. Only problem is we would be undermined by those who purport to be part of this community but are just part of the manipulation.

[rolexperfect]

Absolutely crazy. I met with a trader the other day here in Germany, and a Pepsi gmt jubilee steel was being sold by this gentleman for 18k € (22k USD). Just crazy. And he kept telling me it was gonna keep going up. He suggested I bought it and put it in a safe, as a “great investment”. I talked to him about mutual funds, and he kept insisting about his great investment idea in a bank safe. Insane. I’d never buy at double the MRSP price.

Took a photo by the way:

https://share.icloud.com/photos/02ie..._Io1Og#Hamburg

[rand8086]

The first time I walked in to a Rolex dealer a few years ago to try on and eventually buy my first watch I thought I might be in a women's only watch store at first, as there were virtually no men's watches in the display cases to be seen. After popping in 5 or 6 other Rolex dealers randomly while traveling about I kept hearing the same story about how the watches went to their loyal customers first, and never even make it to the display case, and how I needed to be a loyal customer first (to which I always replied, "well, how do I become a loyal customer when you refuse to sell me a watch?"). Never got a satisfying answer to that.

The most disappointing part of the experience was that I was not once able to so much as even see the watches I was interested in in real life. Shortly afterward I discovered Omega and Breguet and moved on but can't help but wonder now if the reason I could never so much as see a simple Sub at an AD was because of this.

[Goin2drt]

Interesting read and certainly capitalism at work.

My only part about the Rolex cycle that I don’t like or think IS NOT free market capitalism is dictating and not allowing an AD to sell at anything over MSRP. That is not free market. Even car dealers don’t do that. They have an MSRP sure but if the model is hot they are allowed to charge an ADM.

The price and going rate sure is what someone is willing to pay. Supply and demand, got it. I just think it is worthless and stupid to have to add into the mix another completely unnecessary layer of sellers (the gray market). Allow the ADs to sell at this “market value” either high or low. They are the ones spending the capital and HUGE costs to run a business usually in very high rent districts. Let them establish the price and let them sell at whatever is the going rate. This philosophy doesn’t change anything for Rolex HQ. They still create the demand through marketing and choking supply. Gray market does nothing to help or hurt (well probably hurts from a customer perception standpoint) Rolex.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Sorry to tell you but most economies are turning up, not receding. One reason is that COVID cases, hospitalizations and fatalities have turned rather sharply down. Another is that the best companies are doing spectacularly well.

Exactly. Furthermore, the vast majority of luxury consumers worldwide have been, and continue to be, insulated from the the economic effects of the pandemic.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Robert Bruce

Folks, never, ever pay grey market prices for a Rolex. It just supports an industry that victimizes and profiteers. To me, it's borderline criminality. It's like scalpers who find a way to purloin opportunities to buy something desirable and then resell it at robbery prices. They should all burn in hell. I've never sold a watch for more than I paid for it. If I did, I'd just be part of the problem.

Damn Robert, I thought you'd have far more pressing life and death matters on your hands, like the Edwardian English.

[fixinbones]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

Exactly. Furthermore, the vast majority of luxury consumers worldwide have been, and continue to be, insulated from the the economic effects of the pandemic.

Plus they haven’t been spending money on extravagant vacations so why not pick up a watch to cheer you up from the COVID blues.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by fixinbones

Plus they haven’t been spending money on extravagant vacations so why not pick up a watch to cheer you up from the COVID blues.

For sure. And what can be easier then sitting on a lounge chair while on the internet and buying from a great dealer these days