True collectors and the tanking Rolex market

[amh]

Originally Posted by rolexpure

Lets see.

I'm in about 8 Whatsapp and Facebook buy and sell groups. I can see chats live and what is the asking prices and what is selling.

Just wait and see. Panic is going to set in soon because every single day the prices of all the pieces get dropped.

If what you say is true then we should see price reductions on grey websites pretty soon. So far the big guys are holding very steady.

[alphadweller]

Originally Posted by Time Out

How many of you will still squeeze the trigger once the market burns out ?



I personally only have a couple more I want as it is but truth be told, I kind of like the anticipation and waiting game of getting an in demand piece at retail. I still will buy what I want at MSRP but walking in and getting it whenever I feel like will definitely have a different feeling.



Maybe the new fun will be working to get a discount at the AD in the near future.

For me, scarcity causes more aggravation than fun. Not being able to easily buy anything I like from an AD is a problem. First world problem maybe, but a problem nonetheless.

[zengineer]

I will continue to buy any watch I like based on my sense of what it is worth...to me. I am not caught up in the nonsense of paying double or triple a reasonable price just because others are willing to and have driven up the market price.

I like pizza from a certain place but if it tripled in price I would find something else to eat and not react like a petulant child.

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[Keepchasing]

The Rolex brand has strengthened in
just the 7 years I bought my first.

They loathed that they had to lay out 5-6 pieces at a time for a customer to look at, only to tell them they’d have to think about it.
Then negotiate the best discount based on the opinions here of how much they could get.

Now, they are super exclusive and showing physical watches that we can’t have inside a new glass case.

The consumer now begs to get these veblin goods.
Threads are started on what gifts to give SA’s for the chance to move up “the list”.

The market can tank all it wants. They will never let that power dynamic shift back. They don’t have to. The current setup is a demand creating machine.

[3sheets86]

Originally Posted by Keepchasing

The Rolex brand has strengthened in
just the 7 years I bought my first.

They loathed that they had to lay out 5-6 pieces at a time for a customer to look at, only to tell them they’d have to think about it.
Then negotiate the best discount based on the opinions here of how much they could get.

Now, they are super exclusive and showing physical watches that we can’t have inside a new glass case.

The consumer now begs to get these veblin goods.
Threads are started on what gifts to give SA’s for the chance to move up “the list”.

The market can tank all it wants. They will never let that power dynamic shift back. They don’t have to. The current setup is a demand creating machine.

Agreed, and Rolex are the masters of what they do with regard to marketing and creating desire and hype for their product, better than any other watch maker I would say. I've bought all mine from an AD so I'm ok but I also see how good they are having it and if it were my business I would be doing all I could to keep it how it is.

[thenewrick]

I’m disappointed this was just another used jewelry prices thread. This forum is just turning into the same rehash of used jewelry price discussions and speculations with the same 10 people posting the same crap in the same threads over and over.

This is lame.

I think I’m joining Team Padi.

There desperately needs to be a section on the forum for price discussions and move allllllll of this garbo over there. That’s what they do on the AVS forums to prevent this type of stuff and it’s heavily moderated. 7 of the 10 most recent threads in general Rolex discussions are about used jewelry prices. Gross.

[3sheets86]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

I’m disappointed this was just another used jewelry prices thread. This forum is just turning into the same rehash of used jewelry price discussions and speculations with the same 10 people posting the same crap in the same threads over and over.

This is lame.

I think I’m joining Team Padi.

There desperately needs to be a section on the forum for price discussions and move allllllll of this garbo over there. That’s what they do on the AVS forums to prevent this type of stuff and it’s heavily moderated. 7 of the 10 most recent threads in general Rolex discussions are about used jewelry prices. Gross.

And you don't think that somebody posting, "Rolex are now merely nothing more than £££££$$$$$ etc...." over and over doesn't get a little repetitive?

[thenewrick]

I think it’s a case of both parties being right and the system being broken. People should be able to discuss used jewelry prices but probably not in the General Rolex chat section. It should be in a prices/speculation section of the forum. So I think it’s warranted for him to continue to protest the state of affairs on the forum with his stamp of disapproval.

[bjn74]

Originally Posted by Adam84

Market doesn’t bother me. MSRP from my local AD or nothing. If I want to spend double What a Rolex is worth then I will buy brands like Moser, Lange

I doubt the market is going to crash and burn though…still way too much demand for the supply

Would you buy grey if they had Rolex at under MSRP?


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[m j b]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Just not interested in the modern rolex offerings. I feel the new versions are charactures of the 4/5 digits that built the brand.

Originally Posted by beshannon

What Rolex produces would not even make my top 10 at this point.

I cannot see myself ever buying another one. Far too many higher quality and better innovations to explore and consider buying.

I concur with these two posts, although I would not have put either comment quite as strongly.

Originally Posted by Keepchasing

The consumer now begs to get these veblin goods.
... They will never let that power dynamic shift back. They don’t have to. The current setup is a demand creating machine.

I thought I learned a new word today, which I did, except that it's spelled Veblen.

:)

As for the power dynamic shifting, one could propose that the same thing will happen with car manufacturers and dealers. The days of holding large inventories with huge incentives and discounts are a thing of the past. Until they aren't. Because the manufacturers find that it's cheaper to keep the plants running at 100% and discounting rather than a fluctuating production schedule at no discount, for example. Who knows?

It may be great fun to speculate, dream, hypothesize, but really, none of us know.

Let's drop all of these discussions, bookmark them, and revisit in 2030.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

I’m disappointed this was just another used jewelry prices thread. This forum is just turning into the same rehash of used jewelry price discussions and speculations with the same 10 people posting the same crap in the same threads over and over.

This is lame.

I think I’m joining Team Padi.

There desperately needs to be a section on the forum for price discussions and move allllllll of this garbo over there. That’s what they do on the AVS forums to prevent this type of stuff and it’s heavily moderated. 7 of the 10 most recent threads in general Rolex discussions are about used jewelry prices. Gross.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by amh

If what you say is true then we should see price reductions on grey websites pretty soon. So far the big guys are holding very steady.

Except for the BLNR you want that was at 26k according to you the other day is now under 23k on OC watch guys page.

[atxwatch]

I think it's a bit premature to call the Rolex market as "tanking", but softening is definitely happening. I had been asking for a ladies watch for many months and in the last month, I have been offered 3 SS ladies watches.

What happens next depends on the stock market and geopolitical issues. Russia is now more or less completely cut off as an import market for Rolex and most likely for a long time. China MAY suffer sanctions if they chose to align with Russia more than the Western democracies.

Beyond that, everything hinges on the stock market. If we slide into a full-on bear market followed by a recession, all bets are off. There are huge credit bubbles all around the world, but particularly in China and the US.

And once all the foolish assets blow up like NFTs etc (not to say all NFTs are foolish, but many are), then all the kids posting on TikTok with their Rolex will no longer be awash in fantasy money.

And if all that demand goes away at the same time, who knows what will happen. But I am certain that the current credit bubble will blow up and it will do so spectacularly. And Rolex will have to adjust to that new reality WHEN (not if) that happens.

[watchwatcher]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Even if Rolex return to selling under MSRP like it was when I got into it, I will still be buying and enjoying watches that interest me. Nothing would have changed.

Indeed. Well said.

[amh]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Except for the BLNR you want that was at 26k according to you the other day is now under 23k on OC watch guys page.

That's just the difference between David (26k) and OCwatchguy (23k), it's not a drop. David is usually the high end of the grey price range.
- Slick website
- Great pics
- Ea$y to deal with

[taylor2000]

It never ceases to amaze me how many people come to a Rolex forum to say they don't like Rolex. There are a million things in this world I don't like. I don't like cricket, I think it's a stupid game, but I don't join a cricket forum and post incessantly about how much I hate cricket. I don't like beats, I think it's a garbage vegetable, but I don't join a beat farmer's forum and tell them to change their fields to cabbage.

Makes you wonder if these people hate Rolex or hate that they can't have a Rolex.

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[rolex16]

Originally Posted by amh

That's just the difference between David (26k) and OCwatchguy (23k), it's not a drop. David is usually the high end of the grey price range.
- Slick website
- Great pics
- Ea$y to deal with

But Patrick is dropping prices, just a few days ago, that piece was higher, if you remember. Check out his site and see how many he has.

[Lewi777]

Originally Posted by taylor2000

Makes you wonder if these people hate Rolex or hate that they can't have a Rolex.

It's both. They hate Rolex because they can't have one (which they hate).

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rolex16

But Patrick is dropping prices, just a few days ago, that piece was higher, if you remember. Check out his site and see how many he has.

I have a 114300, bought by me at a slight discount from an AD in 2017 @ £3878. By 2019, the value was £4400, but in the last two years that's doubled to £8878. The value graph has levelled off somewhat, but it still gained £100 in the last month. My 2001 16610 (also new from an AD) is also still increasing in value.

You seem desperate for a market drop, why? Are you looking to pick up a specific piece?

[GW44]

Originally Posted by Lewi777

It's both. They hate Rolex because they can't have one (which they hate).

By and large, that's about the size of it. Too many window lickers here imv...

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

I’m disappointed this was just another used jewelry prices thread. This forum is just turning into the same rehash of used jewelry price discussions and speculations with the same 10 people posting the same crap in the same threads over and over.

I agree, it's duller than dull, and that's before you get into the conjecture, bias, and attempted mind reading. But nobody has to read it or contribute, if they don't like it.

Originally Posted by thenewrick

There desperately needs to be a section on the forum for price discussions.

I don't feel desperate about something as frivolous as a discussion forum, but I sure wouldn't mind if discussions about pricing went into their own section, and ridiculous topics like this one went in a bin. It would save a lot of time. However, for all but the abusive abusers, a light touch is usually preferable. Otherwise, where would it stop?

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I have a 114300, bought by me at a slight discount from an AD in 2017 @ £3878. By 2019, the value was £4400, but in the last two years that's doubled to £8878. The value graph has levelled off somewhat, but it still gained £100 in the last month. My 2001 16610 (also new from an AD) is also still increasing in value.

You seem desperate for a market drop, why? Are you looking to pick up a specific piece?

Because I am sick of the BS. This has ruined the hobby. Sounds like you are more of an investor, looking for value increases.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by GW44

By and large, that's about the size of it. Too many window lickers here imv...

You guys are a trip. Many of us can afford the grey prices, we just choose not to. Why buy an inflated 116500 panda when you can get a RO and ROO from AP at MSRP with a short wait for the same $? Makes no sense.

[mikelprz]

I want to be able to buy preowned or new retail any time i like. Either grey or AD. I enjoy hunting for the watch, buying and adding to my collection. Prices are ridiculous and it appears has affected all the other watch brands as well.

[Sub*Man]

Originally Posted by [email protected]

I love this "market tanking" business. I'm being reminded again why I tend to stray away from this main forum of late (e.g. the last 2 years).

Whole forum sucks now IMO.


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[GW44]

Originally Posted by rolex16

You guys are a trip. Many of us can afford the grey prices, we just choose not to. Why buy an inflated 116500 panda when you can get a RO and ROO from AP at MSRP with a short wait for the same $? Makes no sense.

Well that post makes zero sense given you've quoted my post for some reason....

Also your post shows your complete lack of knowledge of AP market/supply too.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by GW44

Well that post makes zero sense given you've quoted my post for some reason....

Also your post shows your complete lack of knowledge of AP market/supply too.

Except I did what I said. I am not a window licker. I speak from firsthand experience.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Except I did what I said. I am not a window licker. I speak from firsthand experience.

I wasn't referring to you.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by GW44

I wasn't referring to you.

That’s fine, my point was that many on this forum have the means and are making a choice. Implying they do not and that their posts are sour grape posts further fuels this narrative that the market only goes up people are the only ones who are right. Just my opinion.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by rolex16

You guys are a trip. Many of us can afford the grey prices, we just choose not to. Why buy an inflated 116500 panda when you can get a RO and ROO from AP at MSRP with a short wait for the same $? Makes no sense.

i mentioned this in the other thread but most are not getting a RO at msrp from AP today. they would politely push you into a code first. not to say it's completely impossible like a daytona at msrp but it's not something people should think is normal and use as a reason to cross shop the two brands. there's a reason ROs sell at 100%+ premiums while also being double the price of a daytona. and if someone doesn't want a ROO then they have to buy a watch they don't want just for the possibility of a RO. that's equally as bad as paying the premiums