Rolex Greys Pressuring David Khalil For Exposing Inflated Grey Pricing

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by broham84

What numbers have you posted. You don’t even know how many Daytona’s Rolex make a year. Please stop with the child play, talking about you know data. All you got is your assumption. Until you can tell me exactly how many each models are made and how many are distributed to US/HK/China by region, everything you mentioned has zero credibility.

Why do I care what my AD puts in his case? He has sold me hulk/Pepsi/2 116500s.

Just because you can’t get them from ADs doesn’t mean others can’t. I know plenty people who have gotten theirs.

Listen I love numbers, I do. But this is basic logic. For decades most folks pulled up to the AD through, and bought 1-2 every lifetime from the pot of 800-900k. Now add on 1000 aggressive gray market folks going after the sought after pieces and getting 10-20 a month. This is basic, elementary logic. Are you really going to argue that that has not had an impact come on. I understand folks want to feel special, that you have a rare item in your wrist or maybe you want to feel special that your got one at your AD. The Texas timex is not rare and basic, grammar school logic can be applied here. Come on folks. Contorting basic logic to maintain this belief that there Texas timex we have are just so so rare due to the demand and yet completely dismiss the role of the gray market that literally gets dozens every month to get is nonsensical. How many have DSW got this week? Where did he get them? He got them from then AD and that means what ever AD he got them from does not have them to sell to the folks looking for retirement gifts for themselves. Come on now


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by broham84

What numbers have you posted. You don’t even know how many Daytona’s Rolex make a year. Please stop with the child play, talking about you know data. All you got is your assumption. Until you can tell me exactly how many each models are made and how many are distributed to US/HK/China by region, everything you mentioned has zero credibility.

Why do I care what my AD puts in his case? He has sold me hulk/Pepsi/2 116500s.

Just because you can’t get them from ADs doesn’t mean others can’t. I know plenty people who have gotten theirs.

Secondly, when the gray market has a hard time sourcing GMT, subs, daytonas, explorers, then and only then has the demand from the general public reached a level that would justify the claims many are making. The gray market, c24, and thousand other dealers getting these daily suggests strong supply from their AD’s. If there was soooooo much demand as many here claim, wouldn’t the gray market have difficulty getting them? Hmm, Pesky logic again.


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[broham84]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Listen I love numbers, I do. But this is basic logic. For decades most folks pulled up to the AD through, and bought 1-2 every lifetime from the pot of 800-900k. Now add on 1000 aggressive gray market folks going after the sought after pieces and getting 10-20 a month. This is basic, elementary logic. Are you really going to argue that that has not had an impact come on. I understand folks want to feel special, that you have a rare item in your wrist or maybe you want to feel special that your got one at your AD. The Texas timex is not rare and basic, grammar school logic can be applied here. Come on folks. Contorting basic logic to maintain this belief that there Texas timex we have are just so so rare due to the demand and yet completely dismiss the role of the gray market that literally gets dozens every month to get is nonsensical. How many have DSW got this week? Where did he get them? He got them from then AD and that means what ever AD he got them from does not have them to sell to the folks looking for retirement gifts for themselves. Come on now


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So still no data? 50-70% just some BS you made up. Without the denominator you can’t calculate that percentage, hell you don’t even know the numerator. Special? Rare? Who said these watches were special and rare? Not sure how to dumb it down even more, I personally know plenty of people that have gotten them from multiple ADs.

You love numbers, you also love making them up. Until you have actual breakdown of production by product by year and surveyed the entire gray market and do the same breakdown, you’re spewing BS. Don’t bother replying

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by broham84

So still no data? 50-70% just some BS you made up. Without the denominator you can’t calculate that percentage, hell you don’t even know the numerator. Special? Rare? Who said these watches were special and rare? Not sure how to dumb it down even more, I personally know plenty of people that have gotten them from multiple ADs.

You love numbers, you also love making them up. Until you have actual breakdown of production by product by year and surveyed the entire gray market and do the same breakdown, you’re spewing BS. Don’t bother replying

So calling BS is not applying any logic what so ever. The data is, when the gray runs out of Rolex there is excess demand. Let me know when that happens lol. I think I may me waiting a good while lmao.


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[broham84]

Originally Posted by Chester01

So calling BS is not applying any logic what so ever. The data is, when the gray runs out of Rolex there is excess demand. Let me know when that happens lol. I think I may me waiting a good while lmao.


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That’s not data, that’s not even actuarial assumption. So I ask again how many 116500 were produced in 2020 and how many are on the gray market?

My thoughts exactly

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by broham84

That’s not data, that’s not even actuarial assumption. So I ask again how many 116500 were produced in 2020 and how many are on the gray market?

My thoughts exactly

369 today right now on C24 BNIB. That’s not counting all the hundreds of other gray dealers. Now the sellers get new ones every single day and so will the chrono 24 folks. That’s a lot easily available. Fact is they all source the BNIB from the AD. Now I know we live in a post fact era but sorry that’s not up for debate-every one of them came from an AD.

Look I don’t have a horse in the race, I am not interested in the 6 digit references at all. I have been wearing Rolex for longer than half the folks here have been alive and have the perspective of having relationships with AD’s and observing the market over decades. As a born skeptic, I am not like younger folks and don’t believe what I hear on the instbook. I simply don’t care and if folks want to believe their Texas timex is as rare as a Picasso and so in demand they feel special just to have one, Go right ahead and feel special. The hype train only matters to those willing to play the game, and I don’t play games, and will not be manipulated and there are too many other great watches out there. Joe public has also moved on and are wearing Apple watches, so many in fact they eclipsed the entire Swiss watch industry. Rolex is becoming Less and less relevant outside of a few that want to impress others in instabook.


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[broham84]

369 all made in 2020? And how many were made? You made up the 50-70% and call yourself a born skeptic? I find that very very funny

For the third time, who said they were special or rare?

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by broham84

369 all made in 2020? And how many were made? You made up the 50-70% and call yourself a born skeptic? I find that very very funny

For the third time, who said they were special or rare?

You have to read above, I did not make up any numbers. That’s the issue, right there are 369 right now. There will be more tomorrow. So here are known facts, last time we have published data, Rolex certed about 900k chronometers, now. I just counted and feel free to double check me. There are 336 AD in the world. So we can make some logical assumptions here with known variables. Right, of those 900k, 900k are not subs, they are 900k and that means DD, DJ, PM, two-tone, follow so far? Consensus is they make more DJ than let’s say subs, which makes sense because there are so many variants on the DJ and DD. Still with me? So that leaves a small percent of those 900k that are the hot SS models. Yes, I don’t have specifics but certainly not 900k daytonas. Ok.

Now, search c24 and there are 369 for sale today. More will be added today. So we know more are posted daily, hell hourly. Now again we don’t have specifics, but we can make some logical inferences that there are a heck of a lot of BNIB daytonas out there from only 369 AD in the entire world. So, seems like the gray is getting a serious percent of these watches. That’s all my point is. Again, I was offered and turned down a ceramic Daytona, owned a couple daytonas, Brother got his BLNR, and never paid over retail. I simply don’t care and am not going to change your opinion. Good luck to you out there in sourcing what you want.


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[broham84]

Let me just point out an obvious fallacy in your ‘logic’ / ‘analysis’, you’re comparing the entire c24 population which is made up by all production years vs. an estimated Rolex annual production.

You don’t have the specifics of how many are added each day, you don’t know how many of these are duplicate offers vs other platforms. So all you have is again, make-believe numbers.

Come back when you have something concrete, go ask Allen Brill.

[minute_man]

Originally Posted by Chester01

So we can make some logical assumptions here with known variables.

...

Now, search c24 and there are 369 for sale today. More will be added today. So we know more are posted daily, hell hourly. Now again we don’t have specifics, but we can make some logical inferences that there are a heck of a lot of BNIB daytonas out there from only 369 AD in the entire world. So, seems like the gray is getting a serious percent of these watches. That’s all my point is.

Don't waste your time trying to explain the obvious, friend. Although I'm sure many appreciate the time and effort you put into this

Here's some perspective:

Chrono 24 on 116500

Years from 2017 to 2021 : 411

2021 : 158
2020 : 121

BNIB : 182

Readily available: 295

Asian listings less than 20

It's grey dealers, not grey aliens we're talking here...

Just sayin...

Attemps to whitewash the situation is either denial or pushing of an agenda. (Both going strong on here and elswhere)

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Chinballs

The only thing I disagreed with was when he said the Root Beer was easy to get. Where I live it is no easier to get than anything else and commands a premium of around thirty per cent on the secondary market.

In the U.S., the Root Beer is not hard to get. You can't just walk in and get one... but, if you ask your AD for it, you should be able to purchase within a few months.

For the most part, David had a pretty good handle on which models are reasonably obtainable from an AD at MSRP and which models are much harder to get and fetch a premium in the secondary market. Perfect example is the DJ41. You should be able to pick up ANY configuration you want at MSRP. You may have to wait a few weeks... but, if you are patient, there's no need to pay 10% over MSRP + sales tax for a steel or TT DJ.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by broham84

Let me just point out an obvious fallacy in your ‘logic’ / ‘analysis’, you’re comparing the entire c24 population which is made up by all production years vs. an estimated Rolex annual production.

You don’t have the specifics of how many are added each day, you don’t know how many of these are duplicate offers vs other platforms. So all you have is again, make-believe numbers.

Come back when you have something concrete, go ask Allen Brill.

Yes, I’m not saying I have exact numbers, but we do have some information. The models I selected was BNIB, and only on C24 and we can agree there are many, many other gray dealers. Now yes some can be old and sitting around but i dont know too many daytonas sitting around. To just simply dismiss a argument based on estimates because it is not exact is a bit misguided and circular because all you have is no, I disagree and your point cannot also be proven specifically. But at least I have made an attempt based on known data. Anyone can sit back and say no, I disagree. That’s your right, but you know you don’t have specifics either and I’m not suggesting I do, but Im presenting something other than well no, I disagree.

Now, I am speculating a bit here but years ago when Rolex was making less, circa 1999. My family knew the owner of an AD (we sourced many from him over the years) he told us that he got about 6 two tone Daytona per year and about 2-4 SS daytonas per year. Now, yes he could have lied, for what reason idk. But given the known number of AD compare to the number of daytonas out there, suffice to say that would be a serious chunk of daytonas that are going right to the gray market. Yes, it’s not exact, but not bad and certainly a jumping off point.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by minute_man

Don't waste your time trying to explain the obvious, friend. Although I'm sure many appreciate the time and effort you put into this

Here's some perspective:

Chrono 24 on 116500

Years from 2017 to 2021 : 411

2021 : 158
2020 : 121

BNIB : 182

Readily available: 295

Asian listings less than 20

It's grey dealers, not grey aliens we're talking here...

Just sayin...

Attemps to whitewash the situation is either denial or pushing of an agenda. (Both going strong on here and elswhere)

Lol, I wonder how many debating this here are gray dealers!!!!


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[minute_man]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Lol, I wonder how many debating this here are gray dealers!!!!


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My thoughts exactly! Much $$€€££¥¥₩₩ in Rolex nowadays. Understandable...

[Ruddiger]

Howdy,

Everything I am posting below is my personal opinion. Nothing more.

In my opinion, and to all of those people who think this is the “new normal” and believe watches are an investment, be warned: this IS a pyramid scheme.

Someone, likely you, is going to get burned and burned bad when the bubble pops. To be clear: bubbles ALWAYS pop. Furthermore, many of these new greys, including some actively promoting themselves on YouTube, may not be who or what you think they are. The same may go for the products they sell.

Combine the advancements in fakes and Frankensteins, with greed, desperation, naïveté and arrogance and you have a recipe for a disaster in the making (it’s likely already occurring in my opinion).

In my opinion this is all completely unsustainable, and as the clock runs out things are going to get pretty shady. Big money attracts big grifters, and the amount of money involved in this current bubble is an open invitation to swindlers.

Mark my words, this will end very badly for many people. As the ship sinks, and desperation sets in for those people who are heavily leveraged and saddled with grossly overpriced inventory, people may find the watches they purchase are not even authentic. Desperation and fraud often go hand in hand. If the FBI and IRS aren’t already watching some of these people I would be absolutely shocked.

All of this is my personal opinion so please give it the weight it deserves.

Take care,

Ruddiger

[ugoblue]

Originally Posted by vh2k

In the U.S., the Root Beer is not hard to get. You can't just walk in and get one... but, if you ask your AD for it, you should be able to purchase within a few months.

For the most part, David had a pretty good handle on which models are reasonably obtainable from an AD at MSRP and which models are much harder to get and fetch a premium in the secondary market. Perfect example is the DJ41. You should be able to pick up ANY configuration you want at MSRP. You may have to wait a few weeks... but, if you are patient, there's no need to pay 10% over MSRP + sales tax for a steel or TT DJ.

I had to wait 3.5 months in 2021 for a blue stick DJ41, oyster bracelet, smooth bezel. I do recall that after I special ordered in February, the AD later said that I got my order in just in time, as all SS DJ41 were now on allocation. In any case, patience saved me some money, the warranty card was activated the day I bought it, and I got a couple of free links to fit by really big wrist.

[ugoblue]

Originally Posted by Ruddiger

Howdy,

Everything I am posting below is my personal opinion. Nothing more.

In my opinion, and to all of those people who think this is the “new normal” and believe watches are an investment, be warned: this IS a pyramid scheme.

Someone, likely you, is going to get burned and burned bad when the bubble pops. To be clear: bubbles ALWAYS pop. Furthermore, many of these new greys, including some actively promoting themselves on YouTube, may not be who or what you think they are. The same may go for the products they sell.

Combine the advancements in fakes and Frankensteins, with greed, desperation, naïveté and arrogance and you have a recipe for a disaster in the making (it’s likely already occurring in my opinion).

In my opinion this is all completely unsustainable, and as the clock runs out things are going to get pretty shady. Big money attracts big grifters, and the amount of money involved in this current bubble is an open invitation to swindlers.

Mark my words, this will end very badly for many people. As the ship sinks, and desperation sets in for those people who are heavily leveraged and saddled with grossly overpriced inventory, people may find the watches they purchase are not even authentic. Desperation and fraud often go hand in hand. If the FBI and IRS aren’t already watching some of these people I would be absolutely shocked.

All of this is my personal opinion so please give it the weight it deserves.

Take care,

Ruddiger

I certainly hope that private collectors are not buying on credit with the expectation that rising watch prices will pay off their debt and make a profit over a longer term. I am sure there is a lot of low risks buying on credit from the AD and then flipping the watch to pay off the credit card completely before interest is due.

As per greys and dealers using a business revolving credit line to buy stock -welll then that is risky. IIRC Mr. Khalil claims he uses little if any credit. If true, then the risk is that your paper worth craters. While having your paper worth crater feels really bad, the bank does not come knocking on your door. Also, IIRC Mr. Khalil claims he is primarily dealing in used not new in box. The strategy of dealing used is to buy from someone who wants cash today and sells 30% below market. Then you sell at market quickly. If you have a big spread and turnover quickly, then you control risk. Anyone "dealing" buy buying at market and trying to hold for appreciation is not "dealing" - they are speculating.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by minute_man

Don't waste your time trying to explain the obvious, friend. Although I'm sure many appreciate the time and effort you put into this

Here's some perspective:

Chrono 24 on 116500

Years from 2017 to 2021 : 411

2021 : 158
2020 : 121

BNIB : 182

Readily available: 295

Asian listings less than 20

It's grey dealers, not grey aliens we're talking here...

Just sayin...

Attemps to whitewash the situation is either denial or pushing of an agenda. (Both going strong on here and elswhere)

I'm on a private Facebook group with a ton of liquidity; mainly larger greys wholesaling to smaller greys. It isn't hyperbole to say there are 3-4 new 116500s posted per day in this group, most BNIB. The wannabe small guys buy them for probably $500-1000 below what youd see a big greys website and try to flip for few hundred bucks. Ask a big grey for a quote on a BNIB hot model and it will be significantly less (20%) than what they are asking on their website. A ton of this inventory gets moved from large grey to small to end user. So far, the pyramid scheme has worked. The smaller greys have been able to sell to end users for a small profit. If there is a downturn in these prices, I think it could cascade quickly. It wont be the big grey dealers selling, it will be the small guys who had no business trying to make $300 on a $35k watch selling but doing so en masse. But if prices do come down a bit, the larger greys can sell for lower faster to lighten up inventory and undercut the wannabes they are wholesaling to. It's musical chairs. Once the music stops, the small guys will be scrambling to get their money out because they dont have a 20% bid/ask spread like a real dealer. Just my opinion.

[gerry100]

Two types of Rolex customers at an AD-

One type is looking for a special event gift/reward related
an anniversary/BD etc date. Empty cases/long waits send
them to the Omega/Tudor etc department etc

Second is the Rolex enthusiast/collector/trader who
waits or goes gray

IMHO, first type is the larger group by a huge amount and drives Rolex
strategy

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by minute_man

Don't waste your time trying to explain the obvious, friend. Although I'm sure many appreciate the time and effort you put into this

Here's some perspective:

Chrono 24 on 116500

Years from 2017 to 2021 : 411

2021 : 158
2020 : 121

BNIB : 182

Readily available: 295

Asian listings less than 20

It's grey dealers, not grey aliens we're talking here...

Just sayin...

Attemps to whitewash the situation is either denial or pushing of an agenda. (Both going strong on here and elswhere)

A couple things…. And I don’t claim to be extra knowledgeable on any of this, but that number you mentioned: “Readily Available”. I wonder how much if that are actual watches waiting to be shipped. Going from my own experience, a couple years ago I “bought” a watch off C24, at least I thought I had. I received emails to the effect that they were “trying to source” my watch. I ran like a rabbit. So, I guess the pictures I saw were not of the actual watch I was buying(?), and they did not have it, physically sitting somewhere ready to ship it to me? That’s all I had to know to get out of that deal quickly. I am wondering if that’s what you mean by the term readily available. Secondly, and I know I am stating the obvious, but many of the watches on C24 are being offered by Grays. I don’t know this for a fact but it’s not a stretch of the imagination to believe DavidSW has watches on there. My point being, you could not take the number of Daytonas on C24, and add it to the number of watches on David’s site, and say look how many are available, a lot of them would be one and the same.

I don’t claim this changes the over all situation, or that it even effects it that much, but from my own experience I don’t have a lot of faith in C24’s claims of inventory.

[Kevin.S]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

Frankly, all the data you say there is no evidence of is actually quite evidence to the contrary. I have walked into every AD in the Dallas TX area with my wife in tow and when she innocently mentioned "Pepsi", all but one responded with a laugh or borderline offensive demeanor. Meanwhile, have you looked at instagram where people are posting an arms worth of white ss Daytonas or a table full of BLROs, Subs of all varieties, etc....
Have you actually looked at some of these grey dealer's youtube channels or FB/IG pages, driving super cars and private planes.

Hell, for real data, just go and use TRF. Count the number of BNIB BLROs, BLNRs, Daytonas, Explorers, the list goes on. Go over to chrono24 and filter the watches on hand, and walk the grey dealers stock windows in Hong Kong, NYC diamond district, etc....there are a ridiculous amount of new product available for sale second hand, at market value. A ss DJ41 is now allocation piece? absurd. But you can count how many new wimbledon DJs are available nib via the second hand market pretty easily. You're numbers are never going to add up to 800k plus watches Rolex supposedly produces, a severely outdated metric of production based on a scale of production for a whole different catalog of Rolex watches. How do you know it's 800K, Rolex now produces watches in configurations using processes that are quite different than what it was 10-15 years ago. It's not 100k Pepsi's and 50k Subs....No one knows production numbers....but what data I do know is that if we take the available resources we have in social media and the internet at large, there are waaaaay more BNIB watches popping up on a daily basis for sale than there are average joe blows shouting "finally got the call".

At this point, judging from my basic observations, the so called demand we're always talking about can be humorously attributed to the amount of fly by night grey dealers popping up all over the place. There's probably more watch sellers posting wrist rolls on IG than actual regular people.

Even if you say, well the grey dealers aren't buying all the stock out the back, it's being bought by regular people.......who actually don't care about watches really, go ahead and contact a grey dealer, sell for a profit, to which the watch is now on the market at "market value". So these "regular buyers" actually act as runners, mules, scalpers for greys.

I don't hate the player, don't get me wrong. Some of our aka trusted sellers have been grinding in the trenches selling watches waaaaay before all this bullshit, and I remember the awesome discounts they offered(bought an LVC in 2014 right here on TRF for $7.5 bnib, full set, all stickers). Huuuuge discounts and buying in PJs then having your watch the next day was the norm. Today business is good and all the hard work some have put into building a business has finally paid off....congrats and much success boys.

Today we have the timepiece gentleman, hodinkee, bark and jack, tom dick and harry, and a partridge and a pear tree, all selling watches and controlling/influencing/abusing/opportunist of the market....give me a break.

I'm with Chester on this.

+1

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

A couple things…. And I don’t claim to be extra knowledgeable on any of this, but that number you mentioned: “Readily Available”. I wonder how much if that are actual watches waiting to be shipped. Going from my own experience, a couple years ago I “bought” a watch off C24, at least I thought I had. I received emails to the effect that they were “trying to source” my watch. I ran like a rabbit. So, I guess the pictures I saw were not of the actual watch I was buying(?), and they did not have it, physically sitting somewhere ready to ship it to me? That’s all I had to know to get out of that deal quickly. I am wondering if that’s what you mean by the term readily available. Secondly, and I know I am stating the obvious, but many of the watches on C24 are being offered by Grays. I don’t know this for a fact but it’s not a stretch of the imagination to believe DavidSW has watches on there. My point being, you could not take the number of Daytonas on C24, and add it to the number of watches on David’s site, and say look how many are available, a lot of them would be one and the same.

I don’t claim this changes the over all situation, or that it even effects it that much, but from my own experience I don’t have a lot of faith in C24’s claims of inventory.

They have tightened this up considerably. I sold a navitimer on their and had to take like 5 pics in a few mints to prove I have the watch on hand. They also added the available now option to display watches that they have on hand so here are likely a few that don’t get picked up, but they seem to be cracking down.


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[Fleetlord]

Chrono-24 is a mess. They might be strict with individual, private posters (in terms of inventory verification), but not with the established, commercial accounts..

Why would they?

They get big fees for every watch sold…so the more Dealer Listings on the site, the greater chance of revenue….whether the watch is truly in inventory is irrelevant to them. They know the reoccurring “dealer” will more than likely come through, whereas the private listings could be a complete 100% fraud, so those get the scrutiny.

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Lol, I wonder how many debating this here are gray dealers!!!!


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X2.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Chrono-24 is a mess. They might be strict with individual, private posters (in terms of inventory verification), but not with the established, commercial accounts..

Why would they?

They get big fees for every watch sold…so the more Dealer Listings on the site, the greater chance of revenue….whether the watch is truly in inventory is irrelevant to them. They know the reoccurring “dealer” will more than likely come through, whereas the private listings could be a complete 100% fraud, so those get the scrutiny.

Bingo! And they and Chronext are examining IPOs. They want growth at any cost.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/s...ay-2021-05-17/

Chronext is expected to be valued on its 2022 and 2023 forecast sales, the sources said. If the company's growth continues at the current pace, sales could exceed 200 million euros in 2023, one of the sources said.

Rival Chrono24 is also exploring a potential stock market listing, people close to the matter said last week.

[minute_man]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

A couple things…. And I don’t claim to be extra knowledgeable on any of this, but that number you mentioned: “Readily Available”. I wonder how much if that are actual watches waiting to be shipped. Going from my own experience, a couple years ago I “bought” a watch off C24, at least I thought I had. I received emails to the effect that they were “trying to source” my watch. I ran like a rabbit. So, I guess the pictures I saw were not of the actual watch I was buying(?), and they did not have it, physically sitting somewhere ready to ship it to me? That’s all I had to know to get out of that deal quickly. I am wondering if that’s what you mean by the term readily available. Secondly, and I know I am stating the obvious, but many of the watches on C24 are being offered by Grays. I don’t know this for a fact but it’s not a stretch of the imagination to believe DavidSW has watches on there. My point being, you could not take the number of Daytonas on C24, and add it to the number of watches on David’s site, and say look how many are available, a lot of them would be one and the same.

I don’t claim this changes the over all situation, or that it even effects it that much, but from my own experience I don’t have a lot of faith in C24’s claims of inventory.

Hey Paul,

There are filters used to narrow down the search.

"Readily available" or available now (or whatever) is one of them. Take it with a grain of salt, of course. I thought proper to include this number as compared to the total listings.

Also as one can see, the overhelming majority of listings is by "professional dealers". Not private individuals. That's what they claim to be, at least...

And surely there are grey website offerings also listed on C24 but chances are there could be several others not listed on the particular platform at all.

Bottom line is, with some 250 116500's available on C24 alone, they hardly qualify as rare and exclusive pieces. They're only scarce at ADs', that's all. And this is just ONE reference we're talking about here...I rest my case.

[Lemonvr6]

I’d be surprised if 50 of those c24 listings have an actual watch to sell

[Etschell]

I am not sure what you guys are really arguing about but let me make this really simple.

There are 90 pages of Rolex models on the website. 14 per page except the last which is 13. This equates to 1,259 models. This does not include all the gem set watches which probably have very small and limited production.

We know the best estimate is 980,000 to 1,000,000 Rolex watches produced a year according to a recent industry report.

By simple math, which is not correct, that is 794 watches per model. Now weighting it probably half the production is Datejusts and Day-Dates.

Let me take it a step further. There are 44 different Daytona models. Exactly why people think there would ever be a huge abundance of SS Daytona is mind boggling. There are probably 10k or less produced per year. The two SS Daytona models represent .15% of all models. 10k represents 1% of all production.

I am not saying a SS Daytona is rare. But to claim it is in abundance is funny as well. There are a lot in 2ndary sellers hands only for 1 reason. The dog model of yesteryear is one a patron of the brand can sell for 2-2.3x retail with little effort. If you think your brethren enthusiasts are not feeding the 2ndary sellers you are sorely mistaken.

[Son Goku]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Chrono-24 is a mess. They might be strict with individual, private posters (in terms of inventory verification), but not with the established, commercial accounts..

Why would they?

They get big fees for every watch sold…so the more Dealer Listings on the site, the greater chance of revenue….whether the watch is truly in inventory is irrelevant to them. They know the reoccurring “dealer” will more than likely come through, whereas the private listings could be a complete 100% fraud, so those get the scrutiny.

But why is it hard to believe that most are actually in stock? Bob’s Watches has 7 ceramic SS Daytona’s in stock today, DavidSW has 4, Timepiece Gentleman has 3, and the list goes on… Most greys are sitting on multiples of each model and this is what they’re LISTING publicly. Isn’t crazy to think they actually have even more in stock no?

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Son Goku

But why is it hard to believe that most are actually in stock? Bob’s Watches has 7 ceramic SS Daytona’s in stock today, DavidSW has 4, Timepiece Gentleman has 3, and the list goes on… Most greys are sitting on multiples of each model and this is what they’re LISTING publicly. Isn’t crazy to think they actually have even more in stock no?

Just fact-checked you.

Bob’s has ZERO 116500s from 2020 or 2021. All are pre-owned and several years old. Where are all the new ones, Mr. Bob?

DavidSW - Only ONE 116500 and it's from 2020. Where are all the new ones with box and papers and fresh warranty cards? Sure, he'll get a few a month maybe. No denying that.

TPG - One 116500 from 2020 and two from 2021 — as the entire community now knows the slim margins with which he operates after paying through the nose to get new pieces. He bought a Pepsi from a seller for $20,300. How much will he add on top? $1,200?

But remember the original contention: 50-75% of new Rolexes are going to grey.

Absolute hogwash! I think your research actually supports my counter argument that the overwhelming majority of new Rolexes go direct to end-users who actually keep them.