Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[Bpan]

I consider both a 15510 and an offshore too big for my 6.25" wrists. The lugs of the Code are marginal - while they don't overhang, they basically line up perfectly with the width of my wrist when viewed top down. I asked for a 26715 in early Feb.

[dchang81]

One prominent grey that usually has strong/high prices has been dropping prices rapidly and among a lot of their inventory, so here we go

[conkers]

Originally Posted by dchang81

One prominent grey that usually has strong/high prices has been dropping prices rapidly and among a lot of their inventory, so here we go

Which one please? I am in serious buying mode!

[macrowatch]

I’ve seen a few like that without cards, but also suspect on provenance in those cases. Don’t want bad karma buying stolen watch that someone else presumably loved and is missing.

[Mini2]

Lots of things happening people being offered watches which they did request and being 'surprised' with watches hopefully ill be surprised with a jumbo haha

[psm11]

A used white dial 15500 just sold on MODA for $30.5k.

[jnewman311]

Originally Posted by psm11

A used white dial 15500 just sold on MODA for $30.5k.

I’m sure more will follow. Search 15500 on there and it’s crazy how much people paid for them. They’re going to be taking a cold bath if they ever sell those

[psm11]

Originally Posted by jnewman311

I’m sure more will follow. Search 15500 on there and it’s crazy how much people paid for them. They’re going to be taking a cold bath if they ever sell those

Yes, been following for months. Steady, steady decline in price. Great news if you are a collector!

[dmash]

Originally Posted by jnewman311

I’m sure more will follow. Search 15500 on there and it’s crazy how much people paid for them. They’re going to be taking a cold bath if they ever sell those

my favorite is one selling for 30.5, and same day somebody thinks theyre going to list for 39.5. the desperation is wild.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by dmash

my favorite is one selling for 30.5, and same day somebody thinks theyre going to list for 39.5. the desperation is wild.

Yeah a few weeks ago I reached out to a guy on MODA who had a 44mm ROO for sale. He wanted 29k for it when only a few days earlier one sold for 22k. I told him that and he told me the market had changed in the last couple of days and that there is no way the one that sold earlier was in nearly as good as shape as his (it was). As far as I know he still hasn't sold it at that price. The BS some of these guys spew is laughable.

[s14roller]

Originally Posted by psm11

Yeah a few weeks ago I reached out to a guy on MODA who had a 44mm ROO for sale. He wanted 29k for it when only a few days earlier one sold for 22k. I told him that and he told me the market had changed in the last couple of days and that there is no way the one that sold earlier was in nearly as good as shape as his (it was). As far as I know he still hasn't sold it at that price. The BS some of these guys spew is laughable.

To be fair, everyone will give data that is skewed to help their point, just like you did with the 30.5 sale

[macrowatch]

Well you know, if you could codify that in the contract might actually be a win win. Buyer gets heavily discounted pieces (especially if it's going below list price) and seller basically pays for the service of non-registration as each period goes by.

Also dmash, don't forget about how most china buyers will ditch box and proof of purchase before re-entry to mainland.

[aa909]

MODA brand new 15500or going for retail+tax. At least 2 were posted for sale this week.
These things were going for >50% above retail earlier this year. The collapse in aftermarket price has been massive

[gretch6364]

Originally Posted by aa909

The collapse in aftermarket price has been massive

Good.

[AperolSpritz]

Well am glad I never bought above retail...
Though we might quickly end up in a situation where most pieces will trade below retail on the grey.
Not that I care that much but wonder how the brands are going to respond to that. Especially those which have massively invested in their own distribution channels and cut ADs (hence increasing their opex)

[supernova]

As someone mentioned before, if a watch holds retail value or close to it (+/- 20%) has been historically a great "investment" to wear and enjoy. I personally hope the hyper inflated prices we seen in the last few years is gone for good and any watch that was requiring 1-2 year wait becomes 1-2 months.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by AperolSpritz

Well am glad I never bought above retail...
Though we might quickly end up in a situation where most pieces will trade below retail on the grey.
Not that I care that much but wonder how the brands are going to respond to that. Especially those which have massively invested in their own distribution channels and cut ADs (hence increasing their opex)

Precisely why I’m still shocked AP raised prices again so soon. We haven’t even reached a bottom an Offshores are going for $10k less than retail + tax. Got to be a good balance somewhere, this will look horrendous for AP if they actually drop prices on some models in the next year or so.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by dmash

Precisely why I’m still shocked AP raised prices again so soon. We haven’t even reached a bottom an Offshores are going for $10k less than retail + tax. Got to be a good balance somewhere, this will look horrendous for AP if they actually drop prices on some models in the next year or so.

Whoa, has AP ever down a price drop before? that would be a disaster for the brand

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by aa909

Whoa, has AP ever down a price drop before? that would be a disaster for the brand

If I remember correctly, they did once for one of the PM chronographs? But other members can correct me. The response wasn’t too great from AP collectors if my memory still works.

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by HMHM

If I remember correctly, they did once for one of the PM chronographs? But other members can correct me. The response wasn’t too great from AP collectors if my memory still works.

They've done price decreases on CE ROO's also in the past from what I remember.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by aa909

Whoa, has AP ever down a price drop before? that would be a disaster for the brand

Yes they have done price decreases in the past. The pricing on their precious metal pieces got out of whack and they dropped the prices a not insignificant amount. Was terrible for the brand, they never recovered, just like PP when they dropped prices on the nautilus 7 years ago.

Link to one of the earlier discussions on this:

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=276905

It was done to combat the discounting and the grey market. MSRP was high but no one ever paid it. So they dropped MSRP and held AD cost the same so they squeezed the ADs to discourage discounting of the pieces. People who bought recently took a hit, but back then they were being discounted 25%+ off of MSRP.

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by SMD

Yes they have done price decreases in the past. The pricing on their precious metal pieces got out of whack and they dropped the prices a not insignificant amount. Was terrible for the brand, they never recovered, just like PP when they dropped prices on the nautilus 7 years ago.

Link to one of the earlier discussions on this:

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=276905

It was done to combat the discounting and the grey market. MSRP was high but no one ever paid it. So they dropped MSRP and held AD cost the same so they squeezed the ADs to discourage discounting of the pieces. People who bought recently took a hit, but back then they were being discounted 25%+ off of MSRP.

Times have changed and so has the market. Once upon a time rolex couldn’t sell Daytona’s and practically gave them away as gifts. Well, you know the rest….


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[aa909]

Originally Posted by SMD

Yes they have done price decreases in the past. The pricing on their precious metal pieces got out of whack and they dropped the prices a not insignificant amount. Was terrible for the brand, they never recovered, just like PP when they dropped prices on the nautilus 7 years ago.

Link to one of the earlier discussions on this:

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=276905

It was done to combat the discounting and the grey market. MSRP was high but no one ever paid it. So they dropped MSRP and held AD cost the same so they squeezed the ADs to discourage discounting of the pieces. People who bought recently took a hit, but back then they were being discounted 25%+ off of MSRP.

Ugh! That is a disaster for the brand.

I’ve already seen 2 15500or for retail on the grey market. If we get another leg down in the markets these precious metal ROs are going below retail in 2023 🤦*♂️

[FrmrHoss]

Originally Posted by dmash

Precisely why I’m still shocked AP raised prices again so soon. We haven’t even reached a bottom an Offshores are going for $10k less than retail + tax. Got to be a good balance somewhere, this will look horrendous for AP if they actually drop prices on some models in the next year or so.

Ironically I got a call for a ROO this week. I have a sporadic history with AP (bought a 15400 back in 2017 and then a Code chrono last year) and really only want something precious metal in RO from them at this point in time. My SA reached out for the ROO with a "didn't want you to think I wasn't thinking about you!" message. The pessimist in me was thinking "or, you just went through another price increase, the secondary market for these things are collapsing and you called a lot of customers that actually have expressed interest in one and they're all passing...."

Just one anecdote to add....

[Mr.GL]

Honestly, all luxury goods are taking a hit right now. In addition, AP retail prices have increased a lot for the past 3 years, hence it's not too surprising that some of the models are trading below now.





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[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by Mr.GL

Honestly, all luxury goods are taking a hit right now. In addition, AP retail prices have increased a lot for the past 3 years, hence it's not too surprising that some of the models are trading below now.





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100% this. Also, you can find some PM and SS Rolex’s trading at retail or under right now. Same for Some Patek models. Same for AP. And personally, even if some models were cheaper on the grey market, for that type of money I’d still rather pay a slightly higher retail price and buy directly from the AD. Gives me a peace of mind and also an enjoyable experience (with AP house it’s been amazing).


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[Mr.GL]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

100% this. Also, you can find some PM and SS Rolex’s trading at retail or under right now. Same for Some Patek models. Same for AP. And personally, even if some models were cheaper on the grey market, for that type of money I’d still rather pay a slightly higher retail price and buy directly from the AD. Gives me a peace of mind and also an enjoyable experience (with AP house it’s been amazing).


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[thekman]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

100% this. Also, you can find some PM and SS Rolex’s trading at retail or under right now. Same for Some Patek models. Same for AP. And personally, even if some models were cheaper on the grey market, for that type of money I’d still rather pay a slightly higher retail price and buy directly from the AD. Gives me a peace of mind and also an enjoyable experience (with AP house it’s been amazing).


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The problem now it's not really "slight" anymore. Seeing codes selling for 30-40% off on Moda. ROOs about 8k less once you factor in taxes if buying from boutique. All this coupled with the significant decrease in grey premium on ROs makes the boutique games much less appealing. Might as well buy grey. I have so far only dealt with the boutique when it comes to AP but with the way things are going we will see if that continues to be the case.

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by thekman

The problem now it's not really "slight" anymore. Seeing codes selling for 30-40% off on Moda. ROOs about 8k less once you factor in taxes if buying from boutique. All this coupled with the significant decrease in grey premium on ROs makes the boutique games much less appealing. Might as well buy grey. I have so far only dealt with the boutique when it comes to AP but with the way things are going we will see if that continues to be the case.

I believe in the last couple of days you are seeing the highly leveraged individual dealers on moda panicking and trying to get rid of their small inventories as quickly as possible. Big trusted greys are still not at those prices at all. At least not yet. There is a big gap between the prices on moda to the prices on big greys websites and chrono 24 and other trading groups.


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[aa909]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

I believe in the last couple of days you are seeing the highly leveraged individual dealers on moda panicking and trying to get rid of their small inventories as quickly as possible. Big trusted greys are still not at those prices at all. At least not yet. There is a big gap between the prices on moda to the prices on big greys and chrono 24 and other trading groups.


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those Chrono24 prices are just list prices, in general they're not selling at those prices. my conspiracy theory is they use Chrono24 to list high prices, so when they go on other FS forums they can reference the high Chrono prices to justify their "lower" prices LOL!