How many of you went grey to purchase a Rolex since hype started?

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

Dang, when was that screenshot saved?


I think the "value prop" on gray versus AD has to be evaluated for each circumstance. I recently got a 36 and 39 explorer 1 pair for less than two new 36s would have cost at msrp. And I prefer the 39 size over the 36, so going with the trusted seller was a no brainer in my book. But for other models it's not something I'm comfortable with given how variable to speculative prices are. A white Daytona has been between 25k and 50k in the last couple years while the msrp has been between 13k and 14k. That's just way too volatile for my blood.

I also feel like waiting on an AD provides a natural "brake" to the otherwise runaway train scenario which my watch obsession could allow for :)

Summer of 2017 when absolutely no one wanted a green Sub. The TRF topic at the time was if you prefer the BLNR or the Hulk? Overwhelming the BLNR was the favorite at the time. The just released SS ceramic Daytona was nuclear and unobtanium when the green Sub sat in display cases (for years) at a discount at the AD and even the BLNR was readily available in display cases. Those days are long gone as the brand and Rolex culture has totally changed forever.

[Agamemnon]

Never! I got my watches in no time before and after the hype.

[BuddaLun]

Originally Posted by minute_man

I would humbly suggest you read and comprehend before posting.

And by the way, the member to which you refer to as a "clown" has responded to you in a very civil manner. Not that he needs any defense from me, just saying....

Your comment regarding my reading and comprehension is abusive. My feelings are hurt and I’m going to tell on you. MODS COME HELP ME!l WE MUST PRESERVE A HOMOGENOUS VOICE, TENOR AND OPINION.

LMAO!!!!!

[TimeAZ]

It's been this way for years, and will continue to be this way for the foreseeable future: Those days of walking into an AD and finding the model you want sitting in the case, ready for sale, are long gone. At least, not new and at retail. You'll have to browse the pre-owned section if your AD has one (where various models are actually posted for sale at or sometimes exceeding the usual inflated market prices), and even those fly off the shelf.

Demand has outstripped supply to the point where nothing can be ordered and all models are now allocation-only. What is produced today, goes to the customer who wanted it yesterday... or more aptly, yesteryear.

Without sounding overly pessimistic, I think a sensible dose of realism is badly needed. Personally I cannot see things "going back to normal" with the current state of things, where customers will buy literally anything that is offered, simply because it is offered. To think that recession, market turmoil, or increased interest rates will diminish demand (surely a logical way of thinking) is to largely ignore human behavior, especially when the favorite party-line and groupthink propaganda is that these watches "retain value" and are treated as financial instruments.

[APhound]

Before the hype I bought preowned at a discount (market) now I buy preowned at a premium (market). What are you gonna do. I don’t have the patience to wait. When I have extra money and want a watch I go get one. Not at the Rolex ad lol


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[LittlePud]

I am absolutely never paying over MSRP for anything (not just watches) that is not discontinued / vintage.

[Chester01]

Nope, never. Never will pay over retail. Im not a sucker and there are plenty of other great watches at MSRP.

[Reikolexguy]

Saw some really interesting watches from Ulysse Nardin that are really great value propositions. It’s nice that they’re selling far below retail at grey dealers.


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[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by TimeAZ

To think that recession, market turmoil, or increased interest rates will diminish demand (surely a logical way of thinking) is to largely ignore human behavior, especially when the favorite party-line and groupthink propaganda is that these watches "retain value" and are treated as financial instruments.

The only thing I hear people claiming with certainty in recent weeks is that the hot models will never be worth less than MSRP. Not sure how anyone can still make the argument that they'll always go up or retain value when the SS Daytona and turquoise OP41 are both around half of their prices from 7 months ago.

The key human behavioral element here is tied to whether or not watches stop being on trend more broadly. If the fickle winds of the internet change direction and luxury watches become viewed as "so 2020" then we'll see the market correct in short order.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I have purchased from our trusted sellers long before and after the hype. Much perfer the experience as their professionalism is more in line to my expectations.

Haha and you could’ve probably negotiated that to $8,600.

The good ol days


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[joa]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

The only thing I hear people claiming with certainty in recent weeks is that the hot models will never be worth less than MSRP.

yes i would be careful with such predictions as well.

I remember too well some bank analysts claiming in 2020 that we will NEVER EVER see oil prices at or above USD 70 .. nutters)

[amh]

All my Rolex watches have been purchased via Grey (3), one Tudor was from AD.

However all my wife's Rolex (4) have been through an AD.

Why? It's relatively easy to buy a ladies model or DJ36. It's virtually impossible to find a men's SS model (been looking for ~5 years at 20 ADs across 5-6 countries.)

[jimcarver]

I always said I wouldn't pay over retail. But I did.....and didn't.

I paid £1750 over retail on a blue TT Sub. But it was part of a trade in which I parted with my black GMT for £4k more than I paid for it (bought it new at retail before the hype)

So whilst I did feed the grey market I technically got the sub for £2,250 under retail.

[Jarrah]

The reality is that for most of us nowadays that's the only way to realistically get one unless you want to wait 5 years or something ridiculous like that.

You can go online right now and find the exact Rolex model you want TODAY!
You just have to want it enough to pay the current real-world market price, which happens to be the grey market price.

It's definately pay to play.

[Sglass]

I haven’t gone grey for a new watch, but definitely should have. If I had to count up the Loses I’m taking on watch I’m not excited about, it would be more then the premium I would have paid if I had gone grey. There is a bit of pain that goes into the process, but hopefully it works out in the end. No shame going grey and to be honest I will likely go grey for all of my patek purchases.

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by minute_man

I agree with you and I fully understand how different folks may draw their own lines at different premium levels, depending on their circumstances and their local
market.

What makes sense to others as a reasonable premium, might not make sense to me.

Let me venture a bit further trying to quantify this on a personal level:

If we were talking 20-30% on top of retail, against prompt delivery, that would perhaps be something I could stomach if totally out of other viable options.

50% above retail is beyond what I would consiser fair for good services rendered.

2x or 3x retail falls well into scalping territory.

We're on the same page

Originally Posted by minute_man

Why would people pay an arm and a leg at 2x or 3x retail is another story.

Because they can. If you ignore the "flexers" its the value to the individual (objective) versus cost (subjective) comparison.

I wouldn't, because there doesn't exist a currently produced Rolex watch that I value at 2x or 3x retail cost.

However if I value something higher than its cost, and I can afford it, then cost is no longer a relative factor in the decision process.

If I really wanted a ceramic Daytona, would I pay 3x retail for one? Of course I would If I had the freely available funds to do it.

[minute_man]

Originally Posted by Devildog

... If you ignore the "flexers" its the value to the individual (objective) versus cost (subjective) comparison.

I wouldn't, because there doesn't exist a currently produced Rolex watch that I value at 2x or 3x retail cost.


However if I value something higher than its cost, and I can afford it, then cost is no longer a relative factor in the decision process.
...

Ignoring the "flexers" and the so-called "investors" I could add...

I also don't value any current production model at multiple times its retail but that's just my view.

If I really did desire anything that much, could afford it at whatever premium and was okay with myself having spent that much at the end of the day, then yes I would buy it. This however would rather be an exception and not the rule...

[darkb1ue]

As things go today, it seems impossible for me to get any steel watch from an AD, as I find it totally unacceptable to be asked to prove myself as a desirable customer and spend money on stuff i don't need just to get the watch I want (even that is most probably getting me on some waiting list, not an immediate purchase). I also don't have a purchase history with any AD because I've only purchased preowned vintage Rolex watches so far.

A simple estimation actually shows that if you want to get a new steel Rolex from an AD it may even become more expensive and time consuming than simply going to a grey market dealer and pay 2x or more MSRP.

So far i visited multiple ADs in Europe (Germany and Austria), some of them were quite friendly but without exception the answer was along the lines of:
- We reserve high demand models for our VIP customers so even if I put you on a list, chances to get one are practically none;
- We can get you a (Sub, GMT Pepsi, whatever) quite fast but you have to spend on (ridiculously priced) jewellery or other watches (think Cellini or some lady model in gold) first, so you eventually get access to your desired model.

Oh and before I forget: some of the ADs outright lie to you when they say they have zero stock of desirable models. In one of the cases, I was told by a salesperson (which was the brother of a friend) that at that very moment they had at least 7 or 8 steel sport Rolexes in their safe, among which a no-date Sub, a batgirl GMT and others but sales have to be approved by some regional (or whatever) manager approval so no chance, this got me really infuriated because the local shop manager told me the same day that they are not /will not not available in the foreseeable future.

[TheVTCGuy]

I don’t see what you guys are talking about, every AD I walk in to offers me steel SkyDwellers, GMTs, Subs, all at a discount. Oh, and a few rainbow Daytonas too.

Must be my good looks.

[gwozhog]

The best deal you will find on a Rolex right now is from an individual on Craigslist or Ebay. I dont know why so many of you are afraid of going this route and will overpay for a Rolex buying from a grey dealer.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Haha and you could’ve probably negotiated that to $8,600.

The good ol days


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I didn’t want say it but I did get a discount from David. I have purchased from a David from way back and he has always gone out of his way to accommodate me.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I don’t see what you guys are talking about, every AD I walk in to offers me steel SkyDwellers, GMTs, Subs, all at a discount. Oh, and a few rainbow Daytonas too.

Must be my good looks.

Yes, I know the social media reality doesn’t quit add up to the real world Rolex AD experience does it. It’s reverse social media influencing.
I guess if it’s said enough times in the digital world it’s suppose to come true in real life so that SS Daytona at msrp should be right around the corner real soon.

[noshake]

I'd buy grey at a discount, for discontinued or vintage models. I can't bring myself to pay over MSRP. There is no value added to the product. I'm somewhat patient and if the AD doesn't come through. I'll buy something else.

[peshehodetz]

I went gray for my DJ 41 never worn with remaining almost 5 years warranty. Dealer accepted crypto and at that moment crypto was to the moon, considering that I bought bitcoins and ether years ago at the very bottom, it was excellent deal. Could say Rolex came (almost) for free.

[Gebbeth]

For those saying they would "never" pay over retail, I want to ask you a question.

Would the answer be the same if the grey market price was $10 above retail?

How about $100 above retail?

How about $1000 above retail?

The above is presuming that you would get the watch now (with some shipping time), and you would not have to wait 1 year or longer or have no certainty at all about when or if you will ever get the watch.

A lot of people here are responding in absolutes, yes or no. Black or white.

I don't think this is how it works in reality. There are gradients. Perhaps for some, it is philosophical. But I think most balance the various pros and cons. People do pay more for convenience, not everyone, but a lot do.

[Mendota]

To answer the above, I absolutely would pay grey only if the price was the same as what I would pay at my AD for MSRP including sales tax. That would be a completely fair deal for me if I can also get it brand new. As I keep waiting for the Sub that was supposed to celebrate my 50th 6 months ago, I keep this in the back of my mind. Then there's zero difference to me.

My particular watch was purchased in August of 2020, and at a 15% discount to MSRP, from a Rolex dealer in Atlanta since my model wasn't among the pieces that were in high demand at the time so the more traditional "go pre-owned for a discount" method still worked. I had an excellent experience. I couldn't get it from an AD and none of us had any idea that Rolex was going to suddenly discontinue it just a few weeks later.

Would I buy my same watch again if something happened, now that I would have to pay a large premium for it? I don't know. At the worst of the hype prices, absolutely not. Now that prices (at least for mine) have come down closer to a more reasonable level, probably. I could get a brand new Explorer 36 for around the same price at an AD, though. I still think my dial is more interesting, though, being a sunburst blue and I can always buy an 11 series 36mm Explorer hand set for mine and then have the best of both worlds.

[Gebbeth]

Originally Posted by Mendota

To answer the above, I absolutely would pay grey only if the price was the same as what I would pay at my AD for MSRP including sales tax. That would be a completely fair deal for me if I can also get it brand new. As I keep waiting for the Sub that was supposed to celebrate my 50th 6 months ago, I keep this in the back of my mind. Then there's zero difference to me.

My particular watch was purchased in August of 2020, and at a 15% discount to MSRP, from a Rolex dealer in Atlanta since my model wasn't among the pieces that were in high demand at the time so the more traditional "go pre-owned for a discount" method still worked. I had an excellent experience. I couldn't get it from an AD and none of us had any idea that Rolex was going to suddenly discontinue it just a few weeks later.

Would I buy my same watch again if something happened, now that I would have to pay a large premium for it? I don't know. At the worst of the hype prices, absolutely not. Now that prices (at least for mine) have come down closer to a more reasonable level, probably. I could get a brand new Explorer 36 for around the same price at an AD, though. I still think my dial is more interesting, though, being a sunburst blue and I can always buy an 11 series 36mm Explorer hand set for mine and then have the best of both worlds.

So you wouldn't go grey if it was $100 above an AD price (taxes and all)?