2023 Predictions

[Ed Said]

Somebody needs to make a list of who predicted what to see if internet forums get it right. Same on YouTube.

[Travis29]

Direct from a source Milguass update

[Wired]

Originally Posted by GotRolex

Make more green watches since people love green watches.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No they don't

[Hemdog]

Originally Posted by wherescassat?

please no lol

+1

[Cribbs]

In my opinion, supply will ease up and more used watches will enter the market as the aspirational middle class suffers from higher taxes and inflation. I also predict that those trying to sell their watches are in for a big surprise- the offers will be consignment only or well below retail as we enter a buyers market.

[amh]

Originally Posted by Cribbs

In my opinion, supply will ease up and more used watches will enter the market as the aspirational middle class suffers from higher taxes and inflation. I also predict that those trying to sell their watches are in for a big surprise- the offers will be consignment only or well below retail as we enter a buyers market.

The CPO program will postpone "the crash" by a couple years.

[minute_man]

Originally Posted by amh

The CPR program will postpone "the crash" by a couple years.

Fixed it for you. In fact it might have averted the crash altogether. Timing is interesting to say the least. Rumors began circulating on first evidence of the prices softening. Program announced when trend was confirmed beyond doubt. Just an observation.

[Zerouali]

I don’t see what the CPO program changes. It doesn’t put any more money into peoples pockets, it doesn’t lower interest rates and it will have no effect on the looming recession.

At best it might raise the price floor that the grey dealers would otherwise face dropping prices to, but even that I think will be short term. If people are financially constrained luxury purchases will dry up and many will look to sell to free up cash. A glut of watches on the market will also reduce prices.

[Cribbs]

Originally Posted by Zerouali

I don’t see what the CPO program changes. It doesn’t put any more money into peoples pockets, it doesn’t lower interest rates and it will have no effect on the looming recession.

At best it might raise the price floor that the grey dealers would otherwise face dropping prices to, but even that I think will be short term. If people are financially constrained luxury purchases will dry up and many will look to sell to free up cash. A glut of watches on the market will also reduce prices.

I agree ,Rolex trade on scarcity , that way they can keep their prices high and dealers do not have to discount. If used watches came on to the market at under rrp two things would happen 1, demand at AD's would drop as most on the waiting list would pick up a bargain , 2 the brand would take a big hit in terms of scarcity.

What no one can predict at the moment is elasticity of demand . In other words how many people wish to buy a watch and how long grey dealers are willing to have cash tied up in inventory or sellers waiting for a pay day on consignment.

Seems to me the market is very highly geared at the moment, when demand drops so will prices - even Rolex cannot alter the law of economics.

I believe that Rolex's plan will destroy some grey market dealers because they will be caught in a pincer movement of trying to compete with the Rolex Seal of approval USP and and exodus of sellers who may very well sell to AD's .

[TheDude]

Originally Posted by Zerouali

I don’t see what the CPO program changes. It doesn’t put any more money into peoples pockets, it doesn’t lower interest rates and it will have no effect on the looming recession.

At best it might raise the price floor that the grey dealers would otherwise face dropping prices to, but even that I think will be short term. If people are financially constrained luxury purchases will dry up and many will look to sell to free up cash. A glut of watches on the market will also reduce prices.

The scenario I can foresee…

-If- a massive crash happens, or perhaps beforehand… Rolex can snap up huge stockpiles and constrict the flow - permitting only a trickle out through its CPO channel at a rate that lets them prop up pricing more than if all that stock was held by smaller independent entities.

Naturally that scenario depends on Rolex charging more than its own MSRP. Car dealers do it on (some) used cars but not sure if we know how Rolex plans to price CPO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MangoTree1]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

41mm case and green ceramic bezel would break the internet.

The 41mm Daytona will/might come true!

[jjnd08]

Originally Posted by SeaDuba

I’ve been waiting for this….




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I have too! I can see this, the update to the Milgauss, and maybe a yellow gold Hulk for the anniversary.

[LC23]

3. 60 MM super duper deep diddly sea .... LOL

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by jjnd08

I have too! I can see this, the update to the Milgauss, and maybe a yellow gold Hulk for the anniversary.

This one just makes sense, especially as all the components seem to already exist. Now, for a walk back in time, maybe fill RG, all-brown dial/bezel, President bracelet. Yup, it existed!

[DiamondAD]

Was it even here? Never had one in stock!

Originally Posted by Vince M.

GMT gets updated to a 41mm case. Meteorite dial goes away.

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by DiamondAD

Was it even here? Never had one in stock!

I got all 3 of my GMT's inside of a year from my AD.

[twalt77]

I wish they would just do the Coke already and I really like the idea of a no date sun with a green dial… but they did green last year with the GMT.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[RazorD]

I think it’s going to be a mild year for new releases.

[UnderTheRadar]

Not the most exciting update but I think there'll be an OP white or grey (or both) colourway added.

[londonpilgrim]

Something underwhelming I would guess.

I would love to see: the 2020 OP Stella colours on a DD. All precious metal Daytonas with ceramic bezels.

[Shadow Play]

Originally Posted by UnderTheRadar

Not the most exciting update but I think there'll be an OP white or grey (or both) colourway added.

I would love to see a white dial OP being released.

[garyk]

It feels a little like waiting for the new car models to be introduced back in the 50s and 60s in the US. Exciting!

[Equity]

Pt sub or a full gold Daytona with a ceramic bezel would be nice.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by Shadow Play

I would love to see a white dial OP being released.

Great addition to the lineup!

Originally Posted by Equity

Pt sub or a full gold Daytona with a ceramic bezel would be nice.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not gonna happen: With the exception of adding a ceramic insert on the YM, Rolex has NEVER reduced the amount of PM on a watch.

Also, here's my wild, crazy, not-gonna-happen guess:

New Milgauss... but presented in a revived version of the OQ angular, integrated bracelet type case.

[1259]

More bracelet options for existing watches

[Travis29]

Being back the HULK!!!

[Tylerlsu2008]

Originally Posted by Cribbs

I agree ,Rolex trade on scarcity , that way they can keep their prices high and dealers do not have to discount. If used watches came on to the market at under rrp two things would happen 1, demand at AD's would drop as most on the waiting list would pick up a bargain , 2 the brand would take a big hit in terms of scarcity.

What no one can predict at the moment is elasticity of demand . In other words how many people wish to buy a watch and how long grey dealers are willing to have cash tied up in inventory or sellers waiting for a pay day on consignment.

Seems to me the market is very highly geared at the moment, when demand drops so will prices - even Rolex cannot alter the law of economics.

I believe that Rolex's plan will destroy some grey market dealers because they will be caught in a pincer movement of trying to compete with the Rolex Seal of approval USP and and exodus of sellers who may very well sell to AD's .

I think a lot hinges on "flex culture". I think Rolex has enough demand from watch enthusiast and the finance, law, doctor, engineers that celebrate with a one and done piece to remain stable (ie stock and availability, but not a glut). For the hot market dynamics, I think they could turn on a dime. All it would take is for the instagram flex crowd to shift to Swatches and Apple Watches as the new hot thing -- which could happen.

Remember, people were willing to pay 5x for a MoonSwatch... As we hear in the markets, don't fight the Fed, and you also can't fight the hype machine.

[JoeJoeBobo]

Originally Posted by dannyp

Great addition to the lineup!



Not gonna happen: With the exception of adding a ceramic insert on the YM, Rolex has NEVER reduced the amount of PM on a watch.

Also, here's my wild, crazy, not-gonna-happen guess:

New Milgauss... but presented in a revived version of the OQ angular, integrated bracelet type case.

Except when they added a ceramic bezel and removed bracelet to PM Daytonas on oysterflex.

[RavenousHomer]

Originally Posted by TheDude

The scenario I can foresee…

-If- a massive crash happens, or perhaps beforehand… Rolex can snap up huge stockpiles and constrict the flow - permitting only a trickle out through its CPO channel at a rate that lets them prop up pricing more than if all that stock was held by smaller independent entities.

Naturally that scenario depends on Rolex charging more than its own MSRP. Car dealers do it on (some) used cars but not sure if we know how Rolex plans to price CPO.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Rolex isn’t the one snapping up anything, it’s the 3rd party ADs who are putting their balance sheet at risk and who will make used Rolex watch purchasing decisions based on their own expectations of sell through. WoS, for instance, is a publicly traded company. They’re not gonna buy used Rolexes and take inventory risk at prices they don’t think they’ll be able to sell them for. I don’t understand why people think Rolex will have a say in anything RCPO

[HogwldFLTR]

Platy Datona going the way of the duck bill playtpus. (I know they aren't totally extinct but the poetry trumped reality.)