Deep Sea Pricing Prediction

[mhmfao]

For your consideration and comment:

In Aug 08, the Deep Sea debuted with an $8975USD MSRP and was initially sold in most major economies at a premium on the grey market for as much as $15,000USD--67% higher than MSRP. Nearly two years later, the MSRP is still the same, but the grey market prices have settled down to around $7,000USD--22% lower than MSRP. This appears to be the current grey market value of the Deep Sea even with Rolex modulating production in response to AD sales. Like new Deep Seas are now beginning to trickle into the grey market and being sold at around $6,500USD. I expect the number of like new Deep Seas at the grey market stores to increase as a result of the release of the new SS Sub Date (116610 LN and LV) later this year. Like many, I’ve begun to think about how much the grey market prices for new and like new Deep Seas will temporarily decrease during the initial excitement over the new SS Sub Date models. I think that we’ll probably see new and like new Deep Seas selling for as little as $6,500USD and $6,000USD respectively during the second half of 2011 before prices return to those seen currently. I assess that the fluctuation in Deep Sea pricing will be relatively small for two reasons: 1) because the Sub Date and Deep Sea market segments much more distinct than those for the Sub Date and GMTII; and 2) because relatively few Deep Seas are in circulation. In any case, 2011 looks like it will be an ideal time to buy a like new Deep Sea!

V/R,
Michael

[Tools]

I'm not sure that I follow you............

Around here the MSRP for the Deep Sea is 9,250USD and the grey market runs just under 8,000USD...

The used market ocassionally runs as low as 6500, which is around 30% off list.... Perhaps it's just the area market differences..

I don't think that there will be much of a change in pricing with the releaase of the new ceramic Sub.. I think that the lower prices being seen for all models is a function of the economy and not any particular watch competing with each other...

[Texasjim]

I am no expert by any stretch, and most of the time my crystal ball is a bit hazy regarding Rolex futures, but I feel the DSSD is at a static price point for the "pre-owned" market. I also feel, once the new Ceramic Sub hits, the DSSD will become less noticed. In my opinion, I feel people purchased the DSSD to quench a fix for a "new style sub" in the sports market. I believe you will see a slight increase in $$$ for the pre-owned / grey markets once the newness of the Ceramic Sub dies off, and customers yearn for something a bit more obscure and or different than the new sub. FWIW....

By the way..... it was rude of me not to make an introductory post, as I am new to this forum. Been lurking for a while, and here is where I feel I gain the most knowledge regarding Rolex.

My name is Jim..... I am a "Subahollic", and not willing to change!

Cheers

[mhmfao]

Tools,

Thanks for your comments. I take your point on the effects of the current economic conditions. It seems I made an error in over generalizing the prices I've seen in the Tokyo grey market shops. That being the case, the assumptions I made based on the very high average sale and flip rate I've observed in Tokyo Rolex owners will also not likely transfer to other areas. I guess the last line of my post should have read, "2011 looks like it will be an ideal time to buy a like new Deep Sea in Tokyo!

V/R,
Michael

[mhmfao]

Jim,

Welcome to TRF and thank you for your comments. I'm originally from Dallas though I haven't been back in more than a decade.

V/R,
Michael

[Otto]

Originally Posted by mhmfao

Tools,

Thanks for your comments. I take your point on the effects of the current economic conditions. It seems I made an error in over generalizing the prices I've seen in the Tokyo grey market shops. That being the case, the assumptions I made based on the very high average sale and flip rate I've observed in Tokyo Rolex owners will also not likely transfer to other areas. I guess the last line of my post should have read, "2011 looks like it will be an ideal time to buy a like new Deep Sea in Tokyo!

V/R,
Michael

Michael is right about the grey market prices in Tokyo.

[mfer]

Well, there are many ways to look at it. With the Euro temporarily crashing, it seems like Europe is a good place to buy almost any watch!