Whats the real deal with Rolex appreciation & depreciation?

[Magic-Matt]

Ive read a lot of posts and other articles regarding this topic and there seem to be some pretty controversial views:

1. Some folks believe buying new is generally not good if you're going to regularly flip as you'll always take the biggest hit? Id say true, unless you keep for 30+ years?

2. Some folks say they buy used and enjoy a degree of appreciation that trickles down from the Rolex 5-8% annual price rise?

3. Others will insist that only vintage collectables will EVER appreciate in value?

In my experience of "pre-owned price watching" it SEEMS that the most currently sought after models (Sub, GMT, Daytona etc) do in fact go up a bit in price each year, at least from a certain age onwards? (5 years + Id say)

Soooo, anyone out there (I guess experienced dealers) that know what the real story is here? Id be interested to know who's right (or closest to it) when such conversations come up

[Vincent65]

nothing significant unless it's extremely rare vintage, IMO

[RolexPete]

If you buy pre-owned at the right price and at some point in the future you can flip it and at least break even, sometimes make some money. I have flipped over 10 and have always done very well.

[Cabaiguan]

Whenever I buy used, I do well on trades. If there is any loss, it's minimal. I've fallen for the buying new trap a couple of times and got burned. You need to be sure you're keeping a watch for a while if you do the latter.

[VADanno]

When buying new, you also need to get a significant discount off full list price. SS watches probably should offer 15%+, and gold should get a greater discount, to make the purchase fiscally more responsible. After 7+ years on my wrist, my watch is worth slightly more than I paid for it under these conditions. I just got a service at the RSC, which did reset the warranty at Rolex and brought it back to as-new condition. However, the cost will not be fully covered by a signficant increase in value. I am guessing about half of the cost will be recouped at sale: The balance is just the cost of enjoying such a fine watch for seven years. $50-$100/year seems fair to me!

[Dan Pierce]

1- True.
2- True, to a degree, depending on the reference.
3- Somewhat true but you can find non vintage like the 16710 GMT II that have steadily increased in value since it's been discontinued.
dP

[77T]

Agree with Dan's comment. And would add that there are now pre-owned 14060's fetching $5K that sold for $4K 2 years ago...

Supply/Demand curve is greatest factor vs. intrinsic value for modern era Rolex prices.

[FWK]

Originally Posted by VADanno

When buying new, you also need to get a significant discount off full list price. SS watches probably should offer 15%+, and gold should get a greater discount, to make the purchase fiscally more responsible. After 7+ years on my wrist, my watch is worth slightly more than I paid for it under these conditions. I just got a service at the RSC, which did reset the warranty at Rolex and brought it back to as-new condition. However, the cost will not be fully covered by a signficant increase in value. I am guessing about half of the cost will be recouped at sale: The balance is just the cost of enjoying such a fine watch for seven years. $50-$100/year seems fair to me!

Over 15% on SS from AD?

That's the kind of discount you get from the best grey marker dealers on a new watch.

A used Rolex SS (2013) is usually 10-15% off retail.

[qubed]

Keep in mind opportunity cost. If you didn't buy that watch, where would the money have gone? Stocks, real estate? How much money would you have made (or lost) that way?

If buying a new watch means you get to flip it years ago for the slightly more than what you paid for it, you've actually lost money. A lot, in fact.

(Of course, this ignores the enjoyment factor of wearing a watch.)

[powerfunk]

If you're going to regularly flip, then "it's all in the buy" as I believe a trusted seller here once said.

Pre-owned Rolexes tend to hold their value vs. inflation indefinitely. If you can anticipate the next currently-overlooked Rolex model to become super-collectible (Red Sub, DRSD, 1655, rail dial 16550, etc.) that's probably the only way to get any serious "return."

Maybe it's true that only vintage pieces ever increase in value substantially...But as time passes more and more pieces become vintage! I try not to view watches as investment, though. I just like buying cool watches that I find relatively undervalued.

[Magic-Matt]

Gentlemen, some very interesting and well informed replies... it would be awesome to have some kind of graphical/chart info on how relevant models have depreciated/appreciated over the decades. I doubt such thing exits, but food for thought!

I like many of you go for "buying right" pre-owned and have generally found (if the model is right) that the price holds up to inflation at least, as someone else mentioned.

These days bank interest rates don't even keep up with inflation, so Id definitely prefer enjoying a couple of Rolexes on my wrist as an alternative! :-)

[427shark]

Luckily I'm close friends with my AD and got 15% off my sub-c when it was new & hot. Also got 15% off my dj2 tt... If I wasn't planning to keep them for ever I'd probably buy from a grey dealer. Idk I'm one of those guys that's not into pre-owned watches unless I'm looking for something vintage. Not that there's anything wrong with pre-owned, I just always shied away from it

[james1787]

I got mine used at a good price 13 years ago. Based on what they appear to be going for, I could more than double my money on what I paid for it. I won't sell it though.. so it really doesn't matter much.

[HRFdez]

Good information gents.

[Stonedcl]

When I was looking for my SUB-S and datejust they where not that much cheaper then I was able to get them from a AD for. I also had them ship it out of state to save on taxes so I paid maybee $500 more then the used ones where going for at the time so for me it was not worth going pre-owned. With my AP and patek it was worth going the pre-owned route..

[aeon888]

Whatever 5% appreciation in value you gained from your Rolex watch will be negated by the cost of RSC overhaul or complete service.

I mean not exactly 100 % equivalent but take also into account the cost of RSC service you have to pay if you send it to RSC every 5 yrs or so plus cost of insurance annually, etc..

[DiamondJack]

As with anything, it's very easy to buy but always more difficult to sell....

So value often depends on whether you can sell and how easy it is to sell. The internet and places like TRF create a market previously unavailable and so have raised pre-owned values above what would be offered from a sale to a high street dealer for example.

Trusted sellers on TRF will also buy or take watches in part exchange and so this also helps to improve the ease and resale value for members of TRF.

But a lot depends on your credentials and whilst I'm sure we would all buy from the likes of DavidSW, would you buy from a relatively new member or from e-bay?

For most people, e-bay or dealers is still the only resale option open to them..... and this inevitably involves a hit to your wallet...... for anything relatively modern......

[Daytona-Dan]

I got what I paid back from my brand new from AD SS Daytona after only 2 and a half years. That means I wore if for all that time for free! I could have actually made money on it if I had sold it privately and not traded it in with the AD. My Explorer cost me £500 to wear it for 3 years.

Unfortunately the SS Daytona's are the exception to the rule. In general, buying new means keeping your watch for at least 5 years before you get anywhere near what you paid back. This is mainly because you need to get over the VAT you pay from your initial purchase.

I was told by the AD not to expect my money back on a YG Daytona for a good 5 to 10 years (even with a heavy discount). Luckily I bought it for me, and not for resale. Then again, I bought the SS Daytona thinking I would never sell it too...

PS: I ONLY buy new from AD

[singe89]

Buy from a trusted seller here like DavidSW and you wont take much of an initial hit. Wear it for a few years and you might break even or maybe make a penny or two. I've purchased and sold 30+ watches over the last 10 years and have really only lost $ on Breightlings and a 41mm TT Datejust that I purchased at an AD. I also paid $6200 for a excellent condition DSSD in 2010. I'm sure I could sell it for a good profit at this point.

In the end I buy the watches that I like to wear and enjoy. That being said I tend to buy the brands that retain long term value and I try to buy them at the best price to minimize any loss if I do decide to sell them.

[Jsan20]

Buy the watch you love and flipping will be second thought. If your tastes change and you break even its a bonus

[fastmd]

Originally Posted by Jsan20

Buy the watch you love and flipping will be second thought. If your tastes change and you break even its a bonus

Great point!

[Mystro]

Rolex is a luxury item and NOT a investment. Luxury meaning you are buying because you can afford it. Generally Rolex being a factory watch is a horrible investment. Buy a clean preowned and you can almost say its a investment if breaking even is what you expect from a investment in 5-10 years.

[HRFdez]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Rolex is a luxury item and NOT a investment. Luxury meaning you are buying because you can afford it. Generally Rolex being a factory watch is a horrible investment. Buy a clean preowned and you can almost say its a investment if breaking even is what you expect from a investment in 5-10 years.

[subtona]

Originally Posted by Magic-Matt

Whats the real deal with Rolex appreciation & depreciation??

I appreciate when they dont depreciate

[shoppy]

I buy both new and used and generally have broken even or done well and made about %10-15%. Which IMHO is not bad as I have enjoyed the watches. But it all swings about as I own JLC's which have lost value.

[Dan Pierce]

Originally Posted by subtona

I appreciate when they dont depreciate

Well said, my friend.
dP

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by Daytona-Dan

Unfortunately the SS Daytona's are the exception to the rule.

I'm not sure that's true anymore. I very frequently see barely used Daytona's for $1,000-$2,000 below MSRP these days. Rolex has increased SS Daytona prices to the point that they have extracted all the revenue that flippers were enjoying 5 years ago (back when you could get a Daytona for ~$6,000 and flip it for $10,000 overnight).

The resale value of Subs, at least from the TRF professional sellers, is astronomically high. It seems like a 10% discount on a used Sub.

[T. Ferguson]

I certainly don't have the answer to this, only my theory. For current models any future increase in value is based on 1) Buying it right; 2) Rolex's ability to continue to raise prices, and 3) the condition.

I don't really see any current Rolex model going up in value based on rarity, at least in in my life time. I suppose maybe in a couple hundred years my heir may find the 16610 he inherited is somewhat rare. But a lot of good that does me, right?

Beyond that, the sport/professional models hold value better than say a DJ. No slam on the DateJust. But while the DJ is obviously very popular it seems to me that because there are so many variations available finding a buyer willing to pay top dollar for the exact one you have is tougher.

[Gaijin]

I think in 10 years you would do pretty well on a 16610 Green LV Sub (NIB or not) or a NIB GMT II (Pepsi or Coke.)

Those two are about the only modern day Rolex I can think of that will appreciatte well unless you can find and get a super limited edition model that Rolex may come out with.


The discontinued Explorer IIs and the discontinued Turnographs might do well too though so many were made. So only time will tell on that.

I had a chance about 6 1/2 years ago to buy a NIB GMT II Pepsi from my AD with a 10% discount. I think the price was $5,500 with the discount $4,950. Had the error ll on the dial. I passed. One for sale on the forum now for over $10,000.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

I think in 10 years you would do pretty well on a 16610 Green LV Sub (NIB or not) or a NIB GMT II (Pepsi or Coke.)

Those two are about the only modern day Rolex I can think of that will appreciatte well unless you can find and get a super limited edition model that Rolex may come out with.


The discontinued Explorer IIs and the discontinued Turnographs might do well too though so many were made. So only time will tell on that.

I had a chance about 6 1/2 years ago to buy a NIB GMT II Pepsi from my AD with a 10% discount. I think the price was $5,500 with the discount $4,950. Had the error ll on the dial. I passed. One for sale on the forum now for over $10,000.

I think a V Serial Sea Dweller 16600 would be a good buy as well NIB. Also, Zenith Daytona (especially Patrizzi), blackout Explorer 1, and cream Explorer 2 (already collectable IMO) is you go back a little further.