Is the notion of SD4K value appreciation just speculation?

[eus6267]

I know there is a perception out there that the price of the SD4000 has appreciated handsomely over the last few months.

However, I genuinely wonder whether ASKING prices have gone up with watches not moving. Real appreciation is what a buyer is willing to pay and not what a seller is asking. Just because I ask $20k for a 116500LN today doesn't mean my 116500LN has truly appreciated to $20k.

Plus, when I look at the FS section, I see BNIB 116600 models with an asking price of MSRP or below. That doesn't suggest real appreciation to me...most ADs don't discount SS models to begin with. In that regard, a 116600 is no different than a Hulk or a Batman being sold in the gray market, where the asking price for BNIB is at or slightly below MSRP.

Help me understand. Thanks!

[Spartacus]

Yes.

[Calatrava r]

in about 5 years.

[DramaTurtle]

It is. There's a reason why the SD4k was never popular in the first place...

It will go up now that it's gone just like all things but not like some people are thinking.

[ttomczak]

Lol both very ambiguous answers. If you read the other threads and ferret out the details from the emotional content, and also discount the one or two outliers 'I got mine for 28% off retail', you will see that the prices have somewhat gone up. With some new in box ones reaching over MSRP... those are not the norm, just the ones riding the hype wave right now. If we could predict the future, I'd own a lot more watches including the blue 5711 I passed on a few years ago for 14k (). I think for the short term, prices will still go up some and then settle. But like anything else, it's just my humble opinion.

[Chadridv]

If in fact a BNIB SD4K is selling below MSRP on the secondary, I'm not so sure that means appreciation is real or not real. In other words, I don't think the MSRP is necessarily the correct gauge in this instance.

As you put in the OP, appreciation is based on what a buyer is willing to pay, not solely what a seller is listing for. So the question is to see what the secondary market buy/sell price was going 3+ months back in time and look at it now, regardless of MSRP.

You mentioned the HULk. I bought mine BNIB from a trusted seller more than two years ago for $7900. The seem to be in the $8500+ range these days for a BNIB. Obviously this data alone is too small to make a real hypothesis, but my point is that the MSRP hasn't changed yet the secondary market price has been going up.

Make sense? Or am I missing the point? Lol.

[coralfarmer84]

It's a hope for the future. People assume limited run means big payday someday

[Speed]

Originally Posted by eus6267

I know there is a perception out there that the price of the SD4000 has appreciated handsomely over the last few months.


Help me understand. Thanks!

If by perception, you mean many internet posts on the matter...I don't think the facts ( which we will obviously never know ) are that the watch has "handsomely" appreciated.

It's a discontinued watch. That makes current owners and folks who like to speculate think / say the watch will be sought after. That is all.

Old examples are the Paul Newman Daytona and original Milgauss. Ugly ducklings which were poor sellers and made in smaller (compared to today) numbers.

Were the production amounts of the discontinued Sea Dweller really small? I don't know. But I speculate not nearly as small as the aforementioned PN and Milgauss.

[meganfox17]

Patience You Must...
Perseverance You Need...
Succeed You Will...

[oldman2005]

Personally I'd buy the watch I like, it's nice if the value of the watch goes up otherwise I don't really care, not everything in life is a investment. I could get a SD4k but it never sang to me but the SD43 does. The best thing is you buy thing you like and it also has investment value.

Another thing is new watch sale is down significantly for the past 2 years...

[Sparjar]

They never were a great seller and they were one of the worst performing watches on the preowned market (in terms of how much value they lost the moment you left your AD with one in the bag). There was a reason for it. And if they do appreciate it will be in the not so near future. And if SD43 turns out to be a huge hit (although the hype seems to be dying off a bit already) SD4K might stay lukewarm forever. All of that is IMHO.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by DramaTurtle

It is. There's a reason why the SD4k was never popular in the first place...

It will go up now that it's gone just like all things but not like some people are thinking.

X2

[brettpaul]

Only time will tell for certain, however it was produced in smaller numbers and had one of the shortest production runs in Rolex history - all things being equal I expect it will appreciate over time and be more valuable to collectors....but really not for another 20 years! *-)


I purchased one when I heard it was being discontinued because I truly like the watch and feel it has a great heritage with all of the modern upgrades (e.g. fully graduated ceramic bezel, blue lume, Glidelock) while keeping some of the classic dimensions.

At the end of the day, buy what you like!

[Sublovin]

Anyone who overpays right now is foolish in my opinion. This was an underperforming watch , which is why it was discontinued. Many people are now trying to "manufacture" collectibility, which never works in the long run because a watch is only worth what someone is willing to pay, and I don't think this soon after its production that people are willing to pay a premium.
It's a cool watch, but I think this is all hype

[jon_jon]

Around the time UK voted to leave the EU, the British Pound tanked and everyone traveled to the UK to get deals on luxury products, including Rolex SS Professional series watches. SS Subs, GMTs, Daytonas and Explorers were nowhere to be found. However SD4K's, Exp IIs, Yachtmasters and Milgausses were plenty. The SD4Ks are probably sold out in the UK as well now. Although they have been discontinued, there are still unsold inventory available for sale at ADs around the world. They are not that rare today, but who knows if the demand will increase in time.

[watchwatcher]

Originally Posted by meganfox17

Patience You Must...
Perseverance You Need...
Succeed You Will...

[brucethemanlee]

probably a momentary blip/hype on the high side in the short term

however, I think over the longer term there is greater % of going higher in value than not. Short run Rolex + Not popular = desirability in 20-30yrs(?)

[Filipão]

Really?

https://www.chrono24.pt/search/index...=1&watchTypes=