you want to know how bad it is out there?

[moldowan]

one of the AD's here in my local town in texas had a $1.2mil december last year (2007), since the economy is bad now they dropped there goal to $1.1mil this december (2008)- kinda optimistic i think!!
as of today they have met $150,000 of that $1.1million goal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
now that is BAD!!!!!

[zseriessub]

There is a chain of jewelery stores here in this area that sale used Rolex. I spoke to the owner in July and he told me that at that point they have already sold more watches than they did all of last year.

[tnt]

Originally Posted by moldowan

one of the AD's here in my local town in texas had a $1.2mil december last year (2007), since the economy is bad now they dropped there goal to $1.1mil this december (2008)- kinda optimistic i think!!
as of today they have met $150,000 of that $1.1million goal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
now that is BAD!!!!!

the biggest month for jewelry stores is December. If not, they will run into trouble for the coming year.

[moldowan]

Originally Posted by zseriessub

There is a chain of jewelery stores here in this area that sale used Rolex. I spoke to the owner in July and he told me that at that point they have already sold more watches than they did all of last year.

in would be interesting to hear how much he has sold form july to now.

[moldowan]

Originally Posted by tnt

the biggest month for jewelry stores is December. If not, they will run into trouble for the coming year.

december is 1/4 of this store yearly sales too!!!!!!!!

[Alcan]

My Rolex AD is about 30% down from this time last December.

[bodybump]

ohhhh man....and GM just announce they are closing 30 plants for month....

[f16570]

Same story the world over I think.

[yannis]

Well these are very worrying signs for 2009....let us hope the world economy will recover some time next year.

[marshallr47]

Wow, he's way short from that goal. Come on guys....go buy some Rollies from this store.

[marshallr47]

Wow, he's way short from that goal. Come on guys....go buy some Rollies from this store.

[SLS]

Well if the media would stop making people think there is no money out there, which there is...and a lot of it, it would help start to turn things around. Yes, sales figures will be down this year, and they probably will be down for the next couple when compared to 2004-2006, but look where that money was coming from. It's amazing how things start to change for the better when you have a positive attitude.
~Scott

[sea-dweller]

Yes, it's not good. But, I wonder if the final 2 weeks of December will see a 'hockey stick' (surge in sales) ? I hope so.

Originally Posted by moldowan

one of the AD's here in my local town in texas had a $1.2mil december last year (2007), since the economy is bad now they dropped there goal to $1.1mil this december (2008)- kinda optimistic i think!!
as of today they have met $150,000 of that $1.1million goal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
now that is BAD!!!!!

[zseriessub]

I dunno. I'm thinking maybe a drop in the sale of new ones may have benefited the used market.

[BigHat]

Originally Posted by SLS

Well if the media would stop making people think there is no money out there, which there is...and a lot of it, it would help start to turn things around. Yes, sales figures will be down this year, and they probably will be down for the next couple when compared to 2004-2006, but look where that money was coming from. It's amazing how things start to change for the better when you have a positive attitude.
~Scott

Amen Scott.
Did any of you see the 60 Minutes piece last Sunday on mortgages? Makes one want to dig a bomb shelter and go buy 3 years worth of toilet paper.
It is quite likely a valid issue, but it made me sick to see how quickly they digressed from a dispassionate discussion and went right for the fear factor.
It's really inescapable these days.

Also heard an interesting discussion on NPR this mornig during drive time about the timeline for the recovery. One agruement was that we were in for a steep "V" shaped recession due to the hording of cash on the side lines. I'm ill-equipped to say that will happen, but no doubt, lots of investment / spending is not occurring due to the bleak picture the media seems to enjoy painting.

[Jimbits76]

Originally Posted by SLS

Well if the media would stop making people think there is no money out there, which there is...and a lot of it, it would help start to turn things around. Yes, sales figures will be down this year, and they probably will be down for the next couple when compared to 2004-2006, but look where that money was coming from. It's amazing how things start to change for the better when you have a positive attitude.
~Scott

Originally Posted by BigHat

Amen Scott.
Did any of you see the 60 Minutes piece last Sunday on mortgages? Makes one want to dig a bomb shelter and go buy 3 years worth of toilet paper.
It is quite likely a valid issue, but it made me sick to see how quickly they digressed from a dispassionate discussion and went right for the fear factor.
It's really inescapable these days.

Also heard an interesting discussion on NPR this mornig during drive time about the timeline for the recovery. One agruement was that we were in for a steep "V" shaped recession due to the hording of cash on the side lines. I'm ill-equipped to say that will happen, but no doubt, lots of investment / spending is not occurring due to the bleak picture the media seems to enjoy painting.

Is it just the media????

In the UK the construction industry has been in recession since at least May.

The credit crunch squeezed the banks and lenders and folk simply cannot borrow the money to buy homes.

Imagine a couple in their early twenties, both make say £25000. A year or so ago, the lenders would have lent them £200000 over 25 years with perhaps a 5% deposit on a property.

Today, they will still lend them £200000 but want a 30-40% deposit as collateral! How many 20 year old kids do you know with that kind of money for a deposit.

So, it's just the first time buyer market? Nope, it affects the entire property ladder, houses just aren't selling so we end up with falling prices, negative equity and repossessions. At that point the recession hits the commercial and industrial sectors heavily, the high street and luxury goods markets are choked off as folk want to keep a roof over their heads and stop spending on other less important items. It's a vicious circle. At this point, this is where the media steps in and inflates it beyond proportion opnly making it worse.

There may be money out there as you say but it is usually only those with money who get their hands on it. Property prices will tumble and we'll be back in the game again, going round and around. Greedy landlords will snap up all the propperty at the low prices, limiting supply and causing false inflation of house prices and rents. This will continue for years again and then the bubble bursts once more.

Do people feel sorry for the landlords when thy start losing the buy to lets?

Do people feel sorry for the construction workers who charged £5 per block laid when the going was good and now they are claiming benefit?

Does the average person on the street really care or feel sorry for a glitzy Rolex AD when it goes out of business through lack of demand?

I know nobody feels sorry for the senior architects right now and so they shouldn't...they made hay whilst the sun shined, I just hope they all kept enough of it back to get through this mess!!!!!!

J

[SLS]

Originally Posted by Jimbits76

Is it just the media????

In the UK the construction industry has been in recession since at least May.

The credit crunch squeezed the banks and lenders and folk simply cannot borrow the money to buy homes.

Imagine a couple in their early twenties, both make say £25000. A year or so ago, the lenders would have lent them £200000 over 25 years with perhaps a 5% deposit on a property.

Today, they will still lend them £200000 but want a 30-40% deposit as collateral! How many 20 year old kids do you know with that kind of money for a deposit.

So, it's just the first time buyer market? Nope, it affects the entire property ladder, houses just aren't selling so we end up with falling prices, negative equity and repossessions. At that point the recession hits the commercial and industrial sectors heavily, the high street and luxury goods markets are choked off as folk want to keep a roof over their heads and stop spending on other less important items. It's a vicious circle. At this point, this is where the media steps in and inflates it beyond proportion only making it worse.

There may be money out there as you say but it is usually only those with money who get their hands on it. Property prices will tumble and we'll be back in the game again, going round and around. Greedy landlords will snap up all the property at the low prices, limiting supply and causing false inflation of house prices and rents. This will continue for years again and then the bubble bursts once more.

Do people feel sorry for the landlords when thy start losing the buy to lets?

Do people feel sorry for the construction workers who charged £5 per block laid when the going was good and now they are claiming benefit?

Does the average person on the street really care or feel sorry for a glitzy Rolex AD when it goes out of business through lack of demand?

I know nobody feels sorry for the senior architects right now and so they shouldn't...they made hay whilst the sun shined, I just hope they all kept enough of it back to get through this mess!!!!!!

J

Jim, valid point and what you say may be true. However, not sure how it is across the pond, but here it seems the media talks about nothing else. Yes the economy stinks right now, but to be constantly reminded of it every time you pick up the paper, turn on the TV or fire up Internet Explorer is not doing anybody any good! Do you think that the person who just lost their home/job sees any sign of hope when all they here or read about is negative? The rebound has to start somewhere and negativity breeds negativity causing the spiral to continue downward. No bail out plan in the world is going to save everyone, and the days of easy money are gone, at least until the next scandal arises! So people are going to have go out and work, there are plenty of jobs out there, some of them are just not very glamorous! Rolex and the AD's will still be there, albeit there may be a few less of them.
~Scott

[boa2]

Well, as the Oracle of Omaha says, "When their greed turns to fear, I buy".

[cmr]

i read last night where dubai is all but bankrupt. all of the outlandish extravagance there was accomplished with borrowed money and now the price of oil is down they can't pay their loans. it is very bad when the filthy rich are falling down. i keep hearing people say the rich aren't effected and will keep buying anything they want but the reality is they are being taken down by this also. dubai was the last place on earth i thought would be severely effected by this.

[madrin]

One of the nice things about fallout is that it tends to lay open the foundation of systems. Here it is the worldwide monetary system, and the tactics used by a very few to consolidate and keep wealth.

This isn't meant to be a rant on the rich, Quite the contrary....a great many of us have the competency and desire to succeed wildly, and become rich, but it seems the system was kinda stacked. If you wwere at the upper eschelon then you stayed rich, even when you made stupid rookie moves....Bernie Madoff comes to mind, How could someone who actually HAS millions of dollars of liquid assets feel that they had to sign up with this fraud to make even MORE tens of millions of dollars.

...how much do you NEED? And really, how does this go on for 20+ years?

well now it's laid bare. Some of the rich are now poor...some of the poor are gonna be rich...and then there's the other group, which comprises most of us, who may now have the opportunity to participate in asset acquisition that may not have been available a few short months ago.

Those are the people who'll keep the AD's in business. Upheaval is almost never a bad thing. It flushes out the rats and generally cleans things up.

I hope the lesson the world takes away from all this is the very ancient word to the wise..."if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is" , and I think we can now take the "probably" out of that.

[SPORTSFAN]

....Bernie Madoff comes to mind, How could someone who actually HAS millions of dollars of liquid assets feel that they had to sign up with this fraud to make even MORE tens of millions of dollars.

...how much do you NEED? And really, how does this go on for 20+ years?

I think that it is just called GREED

Regards Mike.

[moldowan]

Originally Posted by SLS

Well if the media would stop making people think there is no money out there, which there is...and a lot of it, it would help start to turn things around. Yes, sales figures will be down this year, and they probably will be down for the next couple when compared to 2004-2006, but look where that money was coming from. It's amazing how things start to change for the better when you have a positive attitude.
~Scott

yup, you hit it right on the head scott. consumer confidence must be there and a improvement will be felt immediately in the economy

[cmr]

you can put all the positive spin on it you want but if people don't have money to spend all the talk in the world won't fix the problem. it's not going away just people act like it isn't there.

[redshirt1957]

Short answer to the question....NO! We are all still kicking and for me that means life is good. Come on guys, is this the first hard times some of you have seen? Travel around the world and you will see that we have it good.

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by SLS

Well if the media would stop making people think there is no money out there, which there is...and a lot of it, it would help start to turn things around. Yes, sales figures will be down this year, and they probably will be down for the next couple when compared to 2004-2006, but look where that money was coming from. It's amazing how things start to change for the better when you have a positive attitude.
~Scott

That's right Scott. I refuse to participate in a recession.

[madrin]

Originally Posted by redshirt1957

Short answer to the question....NO! We are all still kicking and for me that means life is good. Come on guys, is this the first hard times some of you have seen? Travel around the world and you will see that we have it good.

...yup, life is good for me too. Then again, I didn't use my house like an ATM.

I've seen worse economic times...

[Chozn1]

Originally Posted by cmr

you can put all the positive spin on it you want but if people don't have money to spend all the talk in the world won't fix the problem. it's not going away just people act like it isn't there.

People aren't acting like it's not there, but for Christ's sake the media is taking the whole "If it bleeds, it leads" thing to a whole new level. Watch the news for and hour and count how many positive stories there are and how many are doom and gloom. We had to do this as an assignment in a sales class not to long ago, and it was 48 negative and 3 positive. People like myself have money to spend, but then turn on CNN and get scared ****less but what I see and hang onto it. Therefore, I've quit watching the news altogether.

[Chozn1]

And one more thing, my AD is having his best year ever.

[cmr]

Originally Posted by Chozn1

And one more thing, my AD is having his best year ever.

all i can say is that you are in a very wonderful and fortunate place.

[Whiskey]

Originally Posted by marshallr47

Wow, he's way short from that goal. Come on guys....go buy some Rollies from this store.

Surely ye jest!

I'd wait till April of 2009. Get the Rolex then. An AD's markup is what, 60% of the watch bought from Rolex? I'd go in April to buy that watch and ask for a 50% discount.

You think he's going to turn that down?????