I like this guy’s theory for the shortage of SS

[SFBAY]

“The reason why Rolex sports stainless steel supply is so low is because Rolex is changing their movement from the ones with power reserve of 48 hours to ones with 70 hours. If they kept the normal supply and make a switch in the near future, there will be huge unsold inventories of watches with 48 hours power reserve. Yes their action is hurting the brand image and beneficiaries might be Omega, Panerai, etc”

[|404|]

It's a nice thought...

But that's just it a nice thought.

No-one really knows the supply numbers... its all speculation at best. However, anecdotally most people are actually under the impression that AD's have been getting more stainless steel models than previous years.

It is however demand that has increased. As has the demand for gray sellers using their buying power to buy much of the stainless steel sports offerings...

It's a nice thought.. but it is only a nice thought. The truth is supply isn't meeting the new increased demand globally. (most probably)

[JacksonStone]

I'd ask who "this guy" is and where he said it, but that theory has been bandied about by countless people since the shortage started. I'm not sure I buy it. When Rolex has introduced new models in the past, there wasn't a shortage of the old models for more than a year leading up to the introduction. At most, we catch wind of a disco a few months before Basel.

[penguinrolex]

Authorized dealers pay Rolex when they receive the watches, right?
Rolex doesn't care if inventory with the old movement sits around. That's a problem for the AD, not for rolex.

[watchmavan]

It does makes sense that they would want to move previous movements almost entirely before releasing new calibres. However, t his could be to easily solved by using a model approach rather than across the board all SS models.


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[peterpl]

It makes sense. If I had the choice between a 40hr movement and a 70+ hr movement I'd pick the 70+ one 100% of the time.

Not to mention the other improvements with the movement that will come with it.

[JacksonStone]

While we're at it, does "this guy" have an explanation why there's no shortage of BNIB 31-based sports models with recent sale dates at gray sellers?

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

While we're at it, does "this guy" have an explanation why there's no shortage of BNIB 31-based sports models with recent sale dates at gray sellers?

This is a good point, too. I spoke with a small gray dealer today and he has 5 BLROs. It’s become a dirty biz.

[lenfried29]

There're a lot of inventory at Grey Market. No shortage by me.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

This is a good point, too. I spoke with a small gray dealer today and he has 5 BLROs. It’s become a dirty biz.

LOL - yep this watch game has become crazy. You should see the inventory of some gray dealers I deal with in asia.

Man people have no idea. When you think hoarding - lol lets just say they are hoarding LVs, BLNRs, CHNRs, BLROs in crazy amounts.

There is no shortage all the ADs are back dooring to the grays and they are selling at a huge markup. He told me he's laughing all the way to the bank these past 12 months. Made a motsa.

[yhzdude]

Originally Posted by lenfried29

There're a lot of inventory at Grey Market. No shortage by me.

there is if you like to pay 30 % or sometime 100% + on a watch.
i did 4 AD , 2 different country last week, and no sport models to be seen.

look like a shortage to me.

[lenfried29]

My AD said: why should I sell you a Daytona C for 12K if it's selling for 21K. Enough said

[yhzdude]

i don t mind buying a 48 h reserve watch at a discounted price...that s fine by me.
that theory might have some truth to it.
i think they are all gonna switch to a higher reserve..but it won't happen overnight.

[lenfried29]

Originally Posted by yhzdude

there is if you like to pay 30 % or sometime 100% + on a watch.
i did 4 AD , 2 different country last week, and no sport models to be seen.

look like a shortage to me.

you missing the point here.

[bonovox]

Originally Posted by lenfried29

My AD said: why should I sell you a Daytona C for 12K if it's selling for 21K. Enough said

Exactly.

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by lenfried29

My AD said: why should I sell you a Daytona C for 12K if it's selling for 21K. Enough said

The actual shortage is clean ADs. Rolex has lost control of their ADs.

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by yhzdude

there is if you like to pay 30 % or sometime 100% + on a watch.
i did 4 AD , 2 different country last week, and no sport models to be seen.

look like a shortage to me.

When we talk about shortage, we mean an "absolute" shortage, where there is a shortage of supply in the entire market, regardless of who's selling it. We're not talking about a "preferential" shortage, where the seller you want to buy from (i.e., an AD) doesn't have adequate stock. If there's ample supply at gray sellers, then there isn't a real shortage of stock coming out of Rolex's distribution. It's just ending up at different place. If it's coming from ADs selling out the back door, then there really is no shortage; it's just the AD likes the gray's custom more than yours.

[bonovox]

Originally Posted by sfbay

the actual shortage is clean ads. Rolex has lost control of their ads.

+1

[faimag]

And how on earth does this “explanation” apply only for SS and for TT of PM? They share the same calibers, no?!

[doubleclass]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

The actual shortage is clean ADs. Rolex has lost control of their ADs.

I agree!

[lenfried29]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

When we talk about shortage, we mean an "absolute" shortage, where there is a shortage of supply in the entire market, regardless of who's selling it. We're not talking about a "preferential" shortage, where the seller you want to buy from (i.e., an AD) doesn't have adequate stock. If there's ample supply at gray sellers, then there isn't a real shortage of stock coming out of Rolex's distribution. It's just ending up at different place. If it's coming from ADs selling out the back door, then there really is no shortage; it's just the AD likes the gray's custom more than yours.

Thanks! I just don't have energy to explain - it's Friday and I had a very busy week

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by lenfried29

Thanks! I just don't have energy to explain - it's Friday and I had a very busy week

I hear ya. No worries.

[SackLVG]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

“The reason why Rolex sports stainless steel supply is so low is because Rolex is changing their movement from the ones with power reserve of 48 hours to ones with 70 hours. If they kept the normal supply and make a switch in the near future, there will be huge unsold inventories of watches with 48 hours power reserve. Yes their action is hurting the brand image and beneficiaries might be Omega, Panerai, etc”

I wouldn’t care about the 48 or 70 power reserve, if one is in stock I’m taking it. I feel like a majority of people, especially casuals would too.

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by peterpl

LOL - yep this watch game has become crazy. You should see the inventory of some gray dealers I deal with in asia.

Man people have no idea. When you think hoarding - lol lets just say they are hoarding LVs, BLNRs, CHNRs, BLROs in crazy amounts.

There is no shortage all the ADs are back dooring to the grays and they are selling at a huge markup. He told me he's laughing all the way to the bank these past 12 months. Made a motsa.

ATTENTION FOLKS!!! Please read this post. This is what is most likely going on everywhere, including the USA.

[Kostas]

I kid you not, I had a AD dealer tell me that a super wealthy person from Taiwan made a contract with Rolex that in the next 5 years he would get priority to the majority of SS pieces supplied by Rolex, hence the shortage.

He told me this with a serious face

[kultschar]

Yup shortage at ADs for sure. Dont even go in the window and Greys have them in abundance.

I cant see an end to this to be honest - the lists and demand is huge now and building up and up. . Not even sure if much would change even if Rolex magically doubled production. Its all out of control.

[emersm]

It's called supply and demand.

[The Libertine]

“This guy”, “that guy”, so many theories, but still no one knows why.

[Drive]

Demand is high. Once something becomes harder to get, it raises the awareness of everyone. More talk, more excitement and finally quicker decisions on the purchase. If you can’t have something, many people want it more.

[214270Explorer]

Originally Posted by SackLVG

I wouldn’t care about the 48 or 70 power reserve, if one is in stock I’m taking it. I feel like a majority of people, especially casuals would too.

So I am wondering that when our current watches need service in ten years or so if one could request to have a 70 hour barrel installed.

Rolex says the barrel casing is machined just a bit thinner (half what it was) to fit the longer spring.

If that is so . . . as long as the drive pivot design/size still matches to the older watches it might work out OK.