How long has the stainless shortage been going on

[dwjez14]

I know stainless Daytona’s have been hard to get for a very long time so that was not surprising to me. Being a new member and I was really out of the Rolex scene for years happy with the pieces I owned I had not even looked at Rolex for about a year or so. Coming back into the Scene 2 months ago I had no clue about how things had changed. Who would have thought that I would come back onto the scene and it would be hard to find something simple as a submariner black. I’m just curious how long has this stainless steel issue with Rolex been going on ? 6 months , 2 years ??

[returntorolex]

Since Basel 2017....coming up on 2 years. At least that’s my impression.

[denmanproject]

I would say at the release of the DaytonaC then was ramped up to crazy levels with the SS Pepsi

[ArtNouveau]

So will say a bit longer but I think it started around late summer/fall of 2017. I remember walking into the Beverly Hills Boutique in February 2017 and everything but Daytonas was in the case.

[harvey]

Originally Posted by returntorolex

Since Basel 2017....coming up on 2 years. At least that’s my impression.

Yes beginning of 2017. And full on crazy from middle of 2017...

[The Argonaut]

The Blue Skydweller last year didnt help!

[dwjez14]

It has been a few years since I had been in an AD. I bought my other watches from a store that just resold Rolex. The last time I had been in an AD the case was full of watches but that was a few years ago No dead spaces plenty of stock to Go around. Not the issue now ! It’s so bad a Rolex boutique in dallas I would say has 20’percent of the case filled all not really popular pieces. You almost feel
Bad for the salespeople.

[ArtNouveau]

Which dealer owns the Boutique in Dallas? I guarantee you they’re getting watches to sell but with the current crazy demand they’re all presold to previous clients before they hit the case. I picked up my BLRO last Friday at our local Boutique and stopped in Wednesday night to say hi. My salesman said they had one more shipment for the year due in yesterday but that most of them were sold already.

[dwjez14]

The boutique at north park almost had cobwebs in the cases. You are correct lots of deliveries this week. My normal ad got 2 chnr , seadweller
Date , some stainless datejust and a couple of subs most are all gone now

[dwjez14]

My dealer said they will most likely receive no more deliveries for the year. They were surprised in what they got the last few weeks

[mui.richard]

Looks like the supply is getting a bit better for Christmas on some hot models...I got a call from my AD saying if I commit now I could have an SS Pepsi or a 126711 CHNR next week.

But they are still selling way above MSRP AND still want me to take a non sports Tudor valued $3,600 or above to qualify for the purchase.

I told them to sock it.

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[Divingdeep87]

There is no shortage....

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by mui.richard

Looks like the supply is getting a bit better for Christmas on some hot models...I got a call from my AD saying if I commit now I could have an SS Pepsi or a 126711 CHNR next week.

But they are still selling way above MSRP AND still want me to take a non sports Tudor valued $3,600 or above to qualify for the purchase.

I told them to sock it.

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$3600 Tudor to get a Pepsi? That’s a good deal actually.
Take the $3600 Tudor with the Pepsi, and sell the Tudor for even $2000....then it’s only cost you $1600 over for a Pepsi.

Sounds like a decent deal

[Soultime]

I recall things started in the UK with the Brexit vote in June 2016.

The Pound (GBP) fell sharply and within a short space of time people from overseas were coming over and buying everything Rolex......particularly steel sports because the exchange rate gave them about 20% off RRP.

To give an example of what was happening then, I witnessed overseas buyers (many Asian) having to be given tickets with an allocated time slot to buy from the Louis Vuitton franchise in Manchester Selfridges as they were completely overrun.
We were buying Prada stuff for the Mrs and the sales staff said it was bonkers. Foreign buyers picking up armfulls of handbags.

Somehow (I assume various corners of the web got hold of the fact that people were buying Rolex watches and flipping them at a profit) and it seemed to spread globally during 2017.

This produced a self-fulfilling prophecy and pushed up demand, thus the UK shortage became a global situation. And here we are now, with many people across the world just trying to get hold of steel Rolex to flip at a profit. People in every corner of the planet can go online and look at Rolex prices (RRP and grey) and decide its a very easy way to legally make a quick buck.

They then come on here and start threads about price increases. A certain amount of pump and dump feeding the fire.

That's how it looked from my (UK) point of view.

[mui.richard]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

$3600 Tudor to get a Pepsi? That’s a good deal actually.

Take the $3600 Tudor with the Pepsi, and sell the Tudor for even $2000....then it’s only cost you $1600 over for a Pepsi.



Sounds like a decent deal

Sorry I wasn't clear, they want $11,500 for the SS Pepsi, and at the same time I have to purchase a $3,600 Tudor from their non sports lines.

Still think it's a "decent" deal?

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[HogwldFLTR]

How long in Britain?

[jsausley]

Originally Posted by dwjez14

It has been a few years since I had been in an AD. I bought my other watches from a store that just resold Rolex. The last time I had been in an AD the case was full of watches but that was a few years ago No dead spaces plenty of stock to Go around. Not the issue now ! It’s so bad a Rolex boutique in dallas I would say has 20’percent of the case filled all not really popular pieces. You almost feel
Bad for the salespeople.

Why feel bad for the salespeople? Watches sell themselves now. As soon as one comes in they just make one phone call and it's sold. I mean sure, they have to turn away dozens of speculators daily, but that's not that much extra work to sell a product that easy to move.

Remember the shortage is caused by demand out pacing supply, not a reduction in supply. AD sales are at an all time high.

[jsausley]

Originally Posted by Soultime

I recall things started in the UK with the Brexit vote in June 2016.

The Pound (GBP) fell sharply and within a short space of time people from overseas were coming over and buying everything Rolex......particularly steel sports because the exchange rate gave them about 20% off RRP.

To give an example of what was happening then, I witnessed overseas buyers (many Asian) having to be given tickets with an allocated time slot to buy from the Louis Vuitton franchise in Manchester Selfridges as they were completely overrun.
We were buying Prada stuff for the Mrs and the sales staff said it was bonkers. Foreign buyers picking up armfulls of handbags.

Somehow (I assume various corners of the web got hold of the fact that people were buying Rolex watches and flipping them at a profit) and it seemed to spread globally during 2017.

This produced a self-fulfilling prophecy and pushed up demand, thus the UK shortage became a global situation. And here we are now, with many people across the world just trying to get hold of steel Rolex to flip at a profit. People in every corner of the planet can go online and look at Rolex prices (RRP and grey) and decide its a very easy way to legally make a quick buck.

They then come on here and start threads about price increases. A certain amount of pump and dump feeding the fire.

That's how it looked from my (UK) point of view.

All of this is true but you missed another key factor. The economy grew pretty much overnight by 30% in the end of the 2016 and beginning of 2017. Maybe even too fast, as we are now seeing a little bit of a slowdown to compensate for it.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by mui.richard

Sorry I wasn't clear, they want $11,500 for the SS Pepsi, and at the same time I have to purchase a $3,600 Tudor from their non sports lines.

Still think it's a "decent" deal?

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Ah so they want over MSRP plus want you to buy an unwanted Tudor?

[Scapegoat]

I recall the rumour about the Hulk being discontinued at end of 17 or was it 16?

Everything went absolutely crazy after that.

Really the wrong time to buy a sports SS watch now.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Soultime

I recall things started in the UK with the Brexit vote in June 2016.

The Pound (GBP) fell sharply and within a short space of time people from overseas were coming over and buying everything Rolex......particularly steel sports because the exchange rate gave them about 20% off RRP.

To give an example of what was happening then, I witnessed overseas buyers (many Asian) having to be given tickets with an allocated time slot to buy from the Louis Vuitton franchise in Manchester Selfridges as they were completely overrun.
We were buying Prada stuff for the Mrs and the sales staff said it was bonkers. Foreign buyers picking up armfulls of handbags.

Somehow (I assume various corners of the web got hold of the fact that people were buying Rolex watches and flipping them at a profit) and it seemed to spread globally during 2017.

This produced a self-fulfilling prophecy and pushed up demand, thus the UK shortage became a global situation. And here we are now, with many people across the world just trying to get hold of steel Rolex to flip at a profit. People in every corner of the planet can go online and look at Rolex prices (RRP and grey) and decide its a very easy way to legally make a quick buck.

They then come on here and start threads about price increases. A certain amount of pump and dump feeding the fire.

That's how it looked from my (UK) point of view.

I agree, but UK stock had been tough before that, and that started a whole new thing. US shortage has been going on probably about a year.... however within the last two weeks i saw a GMT LN, a sub, a sea dweller, some YM's, MG at US AD's (not all at one and some were in the back but offered all the same). So its still not as bad as the UK. Ironically no Exp 1 or 11's though. You also don't see OF daytonas in the UK very often and several US AD's had the YG and RG versions. US and UK both seem to not have the WG but a couple of AD's had indicated they get them/recently had one and my UK AD hasn't seen one for much longer.

WG BLRO (blue dial), YG Sub, Full gold CHNR, TT GMT all on display in the US, not in the UK if you expand out to non SS models.

IMO its still a demand side shortage and not supply side though, generally.

[lenfried29]

I was late in the game, started just 6mos ago. So, for me Rolex SS models is normal situation. But, I spoke with one AD in Philadelphia and he talled me that it started around 5 years ago. He said that people from Asia coming directly to he's store from airport and were sweeping everything $10K and below of Rolex watches(you don't have to declare below $10K in US customs). Rolex doesn't increase production. So, supply and demand is the factor + Scarcity of ss sports models makes them even more desirable which drives gray prices up through the roof. Unless economy will dive down tremendously, SS sport Rolex prices will only go up. For example: this summer time I could of bought DaytonaC new for $16K, now it selling for $21-22K

[DJRikki]

Here in the UK it was 2016.

I placed the call for a GMT II in Jan 2017 and was told then there was a wait time and if I wanted the BLNR it could be a year.

[Kestrel]

In the US, early to mid 2017 for all SS professional models. However, the BLNR and SS Daytona were tough to get at an AD since at least 2013 when the BLNR was introduced. Later, the daytonaC and the 43 mm sea dweller were hard to get and sold grey at a premium. As I recall the other pro references were always in the case and available grey at 10% or so off mark. But the broad availability/grey price increase happened in early 2017. We are even seeing a grey price increase on gold professional models in the last few months.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by lenfried29

I was late in the game, started just 6mos ago. So, for me Rolex SS models is normal situation. But, I spoke with one AD in Philadelphia and he talled me that it started around 5 years ago. He said that people from Asia coming directly to he's store from airport and were sweeping everything $10K and below of Rolex watches(you don't have to declare below $10K in US customs). Rolex doesn't increase production. So, supply and demand is the factor + Scarcity of ss sports models makes them even more desirable which drives gray prices up through the roof. Unless economy will dive down tremendously, SS sport Rolex prices will only go up. For example: this summer time I could of bought DaytonaC new for $16K, now it selling for $21-22K

no

I walked into a US AD last year and there was a BLNR, SD43, Hulk, and regular subs, GMT LN etc. Last summer, so I guess technically 1.5 years ago.

I regret not picking the hulk up in retrospect. All were for sale.

On a side note, its interesting to go back and read UK threads in 2016 and early 2017 about the shortage and people thought 1. we were exaggerating and 2. it was not going to affect the US. Same thing happened with the sticker removal at AD's which started here, and the warranty card retention which hasn't broadly crossed the pond (yet)

[mml4]

In 1997- 1998 there was a long waiting list for the SS Daytona. I also waited 6months for the TT Daytona I wound up buying him for college graduation. All the other SS models were available immediately. This was in the New York market. SS Daytonas have always been tough.

[JR16]

In the Northeast my impression is that things started getting weird early 2017. And not it’s just become a frenzy. I stopped in a tourneau (don’t judge! It was for 20 seconds , in a shopping center) and not a single sports model on display. Usually at an AD when I’m home or traveling I see at least an exp1, exp2 Igor YM.

For the most part, this has become the new norm. If the market doesn’t bounce back over the next month, curious to see if this downturn is big enough to change things for 2019/20. Fortunately, not after any SS Rolex anytime soon so just a spectator sport for me during these crazy times .


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[lenfried29]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

no

I walked into a US AD last year and there was a BLNR, SD43, Hulk, and regular subs, GMT LN etc. Last summer, so a guess technically 1.5 years ago.

I regret not picking the hulk up in retrospect.

It didn't start obvious immediately. (over night). It was progressing longer.

[mui.richard]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

Ah so they want over MSRP plus want you to buy an unwanted Tudor?

Correct.

When I picked up my Explorer and Explorer II back in 2015 I could get 5% off MSRP. And they actually had BLNRs and Subs and Milgauss for choosing.

Now I'm not saying that I want to buy at a discount, in fact I'm ok if they want MSRP on any Rolex model. But tagging on a no market Tudor just doesn't cut it for me. Now if they were a grey market dealer I can definitely understand, demand and supply means market practically decides value. But we are talking about a major Rolex AD in HK here.



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[TswaneNguni]

Since 2001 when I got my first Rolex,the ss sports has always been scarce.In all this time the amount of times I have seen a ss Sub in an ADs display may be three times,at most.

They have always been popular and scarce.