Prices for hottest Rolex models are falling fast says secondary market specialist

[strettyend]

Saw this on my google finance feed and thought you all might like to read:

https://usa.watchpro.com/prices-hott...et-specialist/

[ALF61]

I wont waste my time. It is faster to look at what the going rate is at DavidSW. That will tell you all you need to know.

[ALF61]

OK so I lied and did read whatever was there for free--definitely wont go further.

So he sells the Pepsi everyday on Chronext ? he has access to well over 200 Pepsis per year ? ZERO credibility !!

[Zakalwe]

Isn’t this a bit like a man in the middle of a rainstorm telling you that it’s bone dry outside? You could take his word for it and walk out the door without your coat. Or you could just look out the window.

The BLRO isn’t the best example because it was a new reference surrounded by massive hype. A correction in the secondary market is to be expected.

Prices for the hottest Rolex references are only going one way round this part of the world.

[GradyPhilpott]

Whether or not the prices are falling, fast or otherwise, the prices will fall and the wise man is just waiting to pounce when the prices are right.

[Mrngrz46]

Another dreaming post....accept the fact that if you want an hot rolex or Patek you need to have more than solid relation with your AD and that's it. The pieces will come at right time to the right people....if you are not among them accept it and if you want absolutely that model pay what market say otherwise is full of beautiful watch ready on stock.

As long as drug, weapon, etc market is not stopped, so the luxury stuff will do.
I'm joking...but reality is not so far...

[strettyend]

Originally Posted by Mrngrz46

Another dreaming post....accept the fact that if you want an hot rolex or Patek you need to have more than solid relation with your AD and that's it. The pieces will come at right time to the right people....if you are not among them accept it and if you want absolutely that model pay what market say otherwise is full of beautiful watch ready on stock.

As long as drug, weapon, etc market is not stopped, so the luxury stuff will do.
I'm joking...but reality is not so far...

I have no skin in the game and was merely just sharing something I came across that I thought was pertinent to the interests of this forum. I'm not obsessed with SS sport watches and refuse to pay any sort of premia on any watch whether it be 2x or +5%.

[cornerstore]

This is the January effect, happens every year. Last year the Daytona C dropped slightly then rebounded higher. Where the price mashing happens is the used ones hit the market at a discount to the BNIB pieces and that drops the overall grey market prices. The excess gets taken out of the market and those who sat waiting for bigger drops jump in at some point and prices whipsaw higher. Much like stocks behave. Seen it every year on hard to get pieces.

[Kamen]

Originally Posted by ALF61

I wont waste my time. It is faster to look at what the going rate is at DavidSW. That will tell you all you need to know.

This to a T. My first reference point even before Chrono24 lol

[exador]

BLROs were dropping $1000 per month until they reached $16k. Then the dealers refused to budge.

If Rolex releases a Coke at Baselworld, the dam will bust.

[ArtNouveau]

So a guy I’ve never heard of on a website I’ve never heard of says prices are falling? Must be true.

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by ALF61

I wont waste my time. It is faster to look at what the going rate is at DavidSW. That will tell you all you need to know.

You do know David is on the high side regarding the
models in demand, right ?

Most of his watches are priced accordingly though.

[DonBateman]

It is bound to happen sooner or later. I would pay a slight premium for a piece I really wanted but paying double for a BLRO is crazy IMO.

[rambo99]

i think its only true regarding the 2018 new releases like the blro and chnr. their prices has been falling quite a lot since the first day hitting the market.

[2001jesper]

Just checked DavidSW - Never seen the White 116500 as high; Black steady around 21. BLRO had been slowly decreasing in price since release, but nothing drastic

[HogwldFLTR]

Kind of glad I traded in on the Platona when I did.

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by superstarmar

You do know David is on the high side regarding the
models in demand, right ?

Most of his watches are priced accordingly though.

He has much higher overhead than most sellers here. A B&M store, employee(s), and his name/reputation. He is no longer (small time).

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

He has much higher overhead than most sellers here. A B&M store, employee(s), and his name/reputation. He is no longer (small time).

Yes, I've been to his store in Orlando.. it slipped my mind.

[WJGESQ]

Originally Posted by DonBateman

It is bound to happen sooner or later. I would pay a slight premium for a piece I really wanted but paying double for a BLRO is crazy IMO.

Agreed. That's just begging to lose money.

[WJGESQ]

Originally Posted by 2001jesper

Just checked DavidSW - Never seen the White 116500 as high; Black steady around 21. BLRO had been slowly decreasing in price since release, but nothing drastic

Maybe when the Coke is released. It's gotta be in the works.

[mk2jag]

Originally Posted by DonBateman

It is bound to happen sooner or later. I would pay a slight premium for a piece I really wanted but paying double for a BLRO is crazy IMO.

I would not pay a cent over MSRP. Never have and never will. which means I won't be getting one of those HOT Rolex models,,,no problem at all...

[TimeToWatch]

I disagree. I check prices of popular models on Chrono24 regularly, and if anything, prices are at or near all time highs. Close to $23k for a 116500...enough said...

[peterpl]

I've been saying this for months already. One of my very closest friends is a gray dealer in Asia.

He saw it start with the BLRO. You must be stupid to think ALL Rolex watches will continue to rise forever. Seriously come on people. Dont be so naive. These are all NON Collectible, NOT Rare and MASS Produced. LMFAO.

[rambo99]

Originally Posted by peterpl

I've been saying this for months already. One of my very closest friends is a gray dealer in Asia.

He saw it start with the BLRO. You must be stupid to think ALL Rolex watches will continue to rise forever. Seriously come on people. Dont be so naive. These are all NON Collectible, NOT Rare and MASS Produced. LMFAO.

collectibiliy and mass production are not the only deciding factors, otherwise they wont be selling over msrp for so long in the first place. certainly the price will stop rising one day, but i cant see any sign of its happening now.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by rambo99

collectibiliy and mass production are not the only deciding factors, otherwise they wont be selling over msrp for so long in the first place. certainly the price will stop rising one day, but i cant see any sign of its happening now.

Well all I can say is you got rose colored glasses on. The people that are going to get burnt are the ones that bought within the last 18 months at peak prices from Gray dealers. Go ask what a gray dealer will pay for your HULK or BLNR. I will guarantee its not anywhere near the list prices on the gray market and that your gonna get low balled big time.

[DonBateman]

Originally Posted by mk2jag

I would not pay a cent over MSRP. Never have and never will. which means I won't be getting one of those HOT Rolex models,,,no problem at all...

I think that is a wise decision.

[Nairn1980]

Fake news

[rambo99]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Well all I can say is you got rose colored glasses on. The people that are going to get burnt are the ones that bought within the last 18 months at peak prices from Gray dealers. Go ask what a gray dealer will pay for your HULK or BLNR. I will guarantee its not anywhere near the list prices on the gray market and that your gonna get low balled big time.

why are you so sure that the price has reached the peak now and is starting to fall? any reason besides collectibility and production size?

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by rambo99

why are you so sure that the price has reached the peak now and is starting to fall? any reason besides collectibility and production size?

I dont know for sure but someone who looks at what is happening and is a member of various watch clubs and have contacts with a few gray dealers

1) Mass Produced
2) Not rare or collectible (you can buy any watch anytime anywhere around the world)
3) Many members of the watch clubs are selling off their SS to pocket the profit or upgrade and use the market hype as advantage
4) Never has there been so many flippers in the history of Rolex sales
5) ADs and Grays working together doing backdoor deals maximizing profits
6) Discussions with my close gray dealer advising me and some very close friends to hold off. He is seeing prices drop and it takes much much longer to sell at inflated prices. He is on the front line of the flipping business no reason to doubt this. He could make profits from me and my friends but choose not to.
7) Articles like this from people who are actually in the business stating facts. Why would he down ramp his own business? That's just stupid.
8) Anyone with a bit of brains who looks at the overall environment and correlates the information can clearly see this is not a sustainable long term business model.
9) When you see SS prices exponentially grow within a 18 month period to stupid highs getting close to gold prices especially for things like the SS Daytona. This kind of growth never lasts. All markets are cyclical.
10) The talk of bubble and overflated prices are everywhere now. Before 12 months ago it was just shortage talk. NOW everyone has woken up that there is no shortage we as the end customer are just getting suckered into the shady dealings that is happening. The gossip spreads fast and when it happens its never good for inflated markets.

If the above is not reason enough to convince you that prices will correct then there is nothing else that will convince you. Just keep buying your overflated SS Rolex and I'm sure you will be able to retire on them.

[rambo99]

Originally Posted by peterpl

I dont know for sure but someone who looks at what is happening and is a member of various watch clubs and have contacts with a few gray dealers

1) Mass Produced
2) Not rare or collectible (you can buy any watch anytime anywhere around the world)
3) Many members of the watch clubs are selling off their SS to pocket the profit or upgrade and use the market hype as advantage
4) Never has there been so many flippers in the history of Rolex sales
5) ADs and Grays working together doing backdoor deals maximizing profits
6) Discussions with my close gray dealer advising me and some very close friends to hold off. He is seeing prices drop and it takes much much longer to sell at inflated prices. He is on the front line of the flipping business no reason to doubt this. He could make profits from me and my friends but choose not to.
7) Articles like this from people who are actually in the business stating facts. Why would he down ramp his own business? That's just stupid.
8) Anyone with a bit of brains who looks at the overall environment and correlates the information can clearly see this is not a sustainable long term business model.
9) When you see SS prices exponentially grow within a 18 month period to stupid highs getting close to gold prices especially for things like the SS Daytona. This kind of growth never lasts. All markets are cyclical.
10) The talk of bubble and overflated prices are everywhere now. Before 12 months ago it was just shortage talk. NOW everyone has woken up that there is no shortage we as the end customer are just getting suckered into the shady dealings that is happening. The gossip spreads fast and when it happens its never good for inflated markets.

If the above is not reason enough to convince you that prices will correct then there is nothing else that will convince you. Just keep buying your overflated SS Rolex and I'm sure you will be able to retire on them.

sorry, i dont buy any of yours reasons. they are all subjective views after all. everybody knows the rise in market price is not sustainable and will come back down one day. but nobody knows when we would see the turning point, not even the grey dealers.