Hulk - Buy on grey market or wait?

[vishnu77]

Hulk prices have jumped in the last six months. Watching some of the reputable resellers pretty closely and these seem to be going for ~$14k unworn with full kit. However, my casual watching (heh) seems to show they are taking longer to move at those prices leading me to think demand at $14k is softening.

I'm on two lists for a Hulk with AD's where I have significant spend history but they both are saying these watches are over allocated for the foreseeable future. I'd really like a Hulk and my concern is that these go the way of the Kermit where NOS are listed at $20k+. At that price range there are far more interesting (horologically speaking) options.

I get that Rolex has tightened production of steel sports models which makes me think either a price increase is coming or a model shakeup. A price increase isn't terrible because it squeezes grey market flippers but a discontinuation of the LV compounds my problem.

Obviously no one has a crystal ball. Anyone have any thoughts/advice?

[Chadridv]

Like you said no crystal ball here, but that said, I’d try to get one if I were you.

At $14k things could move in any direction and the watch might become more valuable or less, but this isn’t a free game and these watches are not investments. If you buy grey and the value happens to keep climbing that’s great. If it drops a few grand you will be spending a small amount of money over what could be a lifetime of use.

There are many here that feel paying the premium is insane, to me I think in most cases it’s Crazy to wait.

When I was shopping for my 16710 a couple years ago I thought it was crazy to buy it at around $7500. I had previously passed up chances years prior to buy it at $4500, 5500, 6500, etc. finally I just said F it. DavidSW is selling almost the same exact example as mine today for $14k.

Another thought is that, while waiting is a gamble in both directions, one way means losing value which over the lifetime of the watch will not only catch up, but will be small amounts of money to pay over a longer term. One way means gaining value which is not just something you might miss out on but something that might take you out of financial decision to get the watch you want!

I have a friend that has been wanting a hulk for 2 years. Got offered one from an AD about a year and a half ago for $8700. I told him to do it, but he said the time wasn’t right financially. Obviously that chance has come and gone, no more calls from ADs and while he could probably afford to pay closer to 10k today, his head was going to explode when I showed him the current market value. He missed the boat for sure.

[997]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

Like you said no crystal ball here, but that said, I’d try to get one if I were you.

At $14k things could move in any direction and the watch might become more valuable or less, but this isn’t a free game and these watches are not investments. If you buy grey and the value happens to keep climbing that’s great. If it drops a few grand you will be spending a small amount of money over what could be a lifetime of use.

There are many here that feel paying the premium is insane, to me I think in most cases it’s Crazy to wait.

When I was shopping for my 16710 a couple years ago I thought it was crazy to buy it at around $7500. I had previously passed up chances years prior to buy it at $4500, 5500, 6500, etc. finally I just said F it. DavidSW is selling almost the same exact example as mine today for $14k.

Another thought is that, while waiting is a gamble in both directions, one way means losing value which over the lifetime of the watch will not only catch up, but will be small amounts of money to pay over a longer term. One way means gaining value which is not just something you might miss out on but something that might take you out of financial decision to get the watch you want!

I have a friend that has been wanting a hulk for 2 years. Got offered one from an AD about a year and a half ago for $8700. I told him to do it, but he said the time wasn’t right financially. Obviously that chance has come and gone, no more calls from ADs and while he could probably afford to pay closer to 10k today, his head was going to explode when I showed him the current market value. He missed the boat for sure.

[tyler1980]

for a hulk i would not. For a daytona (if i wanted one) i would. IMO the premium on the Hulk is more subject to going down.

However in the UK i think the prices are stuck high vs say the US where its always been quite a bit easier to get popular watches so being UK based its a tougher call.

[Stig722]

I'm on the AD waiting list for a Hulk. I refuse to pay over retail.

[jestrada]

If you’re buying it to wear it and can afford to pay the premium, I’d say go ahead and buy from a gray seller. Life’s too short to wait for any watch imo


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[hon]

I will never pay above MSRP, I rather move on to other watches or brands.
To me Hulk don't worth that much of money, the premium caused by all the hype and craze.

[vtsyrlin]

I did the same.. Then ended up selling the watch I didn't want and buying Hulk at a premium. Absolutely love the watch despite overpaying..

Originally Posted by hon

I will never pay above MSRP, I rather move on to other watches or brands.
To me Hulk don't worth that much of money, the premium caused by all the hype and craze.

[Stevec14]

Buy it and enjoy it. Most of us Got to pay to play these days....


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[Daveclock]

Saw my AD this week, they said they had just sold one the week before to someone who was on the "list" above me. (however my place/position still unknown to me!)
This at least made me happy a Hulk had gone out locally msrp.....still gives hope, and to me makes me thing they are still coming out of Rolex HQ despite the rumours...
Tried to buy a s/h one in auction but is made just shy of £10,000 and was 2014 unworn B&P
I don't agree that they are slowing down or selling fewer, they seem to be flying away in the £9500 to £10,000 GBP range, sadly.
Still hoping to get the call at msrp, like you, but it is hard to remain positive in this market/time.
If it does get cancelled it will go stratospheric, and with the new Hulk film due out.....
Good Luck for anyone still waiting, patiently....

[FTX I]

It's up to you. I wouldn't enjoy a watch on my wrist if I had to pay above list price, but that's just me.

[Daveclock]

Originally Posted by FTX I

It's up to you. I wouldn't enjoy a watch on my wrist if I had to pay above list price, but that's just me.

I had to pay £4000 more for virtually the identical 16610 that I sold in the year 2000 (bad move, looking back now!)
Today it is just the current market value, but it did spoil the enjoyment for me!!
Gone now, to fund the Hulk....

Still waiting......

Getting older......

[Zakalwe]

Honestly - and despite the nature of this place, this is a rarely mentioned factor - I think it depends at least partially on how well-off you are.

I pay no attention to petrol prices at the pumps, because saving a couple of quid at fill-up is not worth the inconvenience of finding the cheapest petrol station. There are people in this place for whom buying an LVc at £4k over list would be as insignificant as fuelling my car is for me. Buying any watch for thousands that is outclassed at its primary function by a £10 Casio is absurd when you really think about it, so adding absurdity (£4k) onto absurdity = absurdity. Some people (I include myself here) wouldn't pay over list on principle, but in this context "principle" is really just an irrational mental block - people would happily pay grey prices to an AD if Rolex ramped up the retail price.

So frankly, if you're loaded, find a reseller and buy an unworn LVc and enjoy it because it's a beautiful watch that could potentially be pulled at any time (though I suspect it won't be any time soon). Future prices are unknowable but I would bet that even at a premium you won't be taking a bath on resale.

Otherwise, I'd hang in there on the waiting list - people are getting these watches at retail in the UK.

[Harry-57]

The tipping point is different for everyone. Some people don't have one and buy only at MSRP or below.

If I was on a list, I would wait. I went grey just under a year ago because I couldn't get on a list. I wouldn't have done it for any other watch and am unlikely to do it again, but the Hulk was a special commemoration, my grail piece, which represented far more than just a watch to me.

Since then, grey asking prices have got stupid. I would not buy at today's prices. My tipping point has been passed. It's different for everyone.

[AK797]

I love this watch and bought it before the hype escalated it so wildly, but now I wouldn't pay anywhere near the premium for it. I'd maybe have gone £1K over retail, that was how I priced my liking of this piece, and not the 4/5K being asked now, and I suspect most who do contemplate it at this price have been Veblen-ed into thinking they must have it, but if you are not and are a pure lover then maybe grey is the way.

[carolina23]

I waited 3 months last July, I would wait, only watch I would pay a premium for is Daytona Ceramic Stainless Steel...

[SkyJuice]

Question is time on your side and how badly do you want it?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by vishnu77

Hulk prices have jumped in the last six months. Watching some of the reputable resellers pretty closely and these seem to be going for ~$14k unworn with full kit. However, my casual watching (heh) seems to show they are taking longer to move at those prices leading me to think demand at $14k is softening.

I'm on two lists for a Hulk with AD's where I have significant spend history but they both are saying these watches are over allocated for the foreseeable future. I'd really like a Hulk and my concern is that these go the way of the Kermit where NOS are listed at $20k+. At that price range there are far more interesting (horologically speaking) options.

I get that Rolex has tightened production of steel sports models which makes me think either a price increase is coming or a model shakeup. A price increase isn't terrible because it squeezes grey market flippers but a discontinuation of the LV compounds my problem.

Obviously no one has a crystal ball. Anyone have any thoughts/advice?

All this analysis over buying a piece of jewelry.

You either want to buy a watch or you don't.

[sirC]

Originally Posted by beshannon

All this analysis over buying a piece of jewelry.

You either want to buy a watch or you don't.

nailed it

[brandrea]

Welcome to the forum.

My philosophy is that is you want something badly enough, you’ll find ways to justify it

[1William]

If you are on a list and confident that at some point in the future you will get one then I would wait and watch the market. If the watch moves down in price in the Grey Market then it becomes more attractive to go ahead and purchase. At 11-12k in the Grey Market I would probably pick one up and not wait. Good luck.

[watchwatcher]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

Buying any watch for thousands that is outclassed at its primary function by a £10 Casio is absurd when you really think about it, so adding absurdity (£4k) onto absurdity = absurdity. Some people (I include myself here) wouldn't pay over list on principle, but in this context "principle" is really just an irrational mental block - people would happily pay grey prices to an AD if Rolex ramped up the retail price.

Truer words were never spoken. It's already absurd to begin with, so if we're hung up on gray pricing, it's really where we draw the line in absurdity. Which is absurd.

To the OP's question. I think it all boils down to whether you love the watch and as Neil said, how much do you love it? Good luck!

[Euge]

Wait!!!!


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[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by Euge

Wait!!!!


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Why?

Like I said it's a gamble either way, I don't think there's a right or wrong necessarily, but I have my reasons to advise trying to buy one.

What are your reasons for waiting?

[Dr Watches]

They’re expensive at retail and not super rare. If you have history with the ADs, just wait it out. You’ll probably have it sooner than you think.

[y2jdmbfan]

It depends. If you can get it from a Grey like DavidSW with warranty for whatever MSRP + TAX would be, give or take a few hundred, then if you want it now, do it. I'm going on 6 months with a $3,000 deposit on a DeepSea from my AD and am about to cancel and go Grey.

[T01]

I'd wait, I'd never pay over list.

[klenboy]

I would definitely wait. I myself had a chance to get it but chose to let someone else get it (the green is really not for me).

[David5807]

I would wait and purchase this watch through your AD.

[Wobbly]

I got feed up with waiting last year for a call from the AD and watching as the prices were rising every week.

I bite the bullet and bought grey, I've thoroughly enjoyed the LVc. But still wanted a brand new one.

Then a few weeks ago, I got lucky and picked up from AD, a shiny new LV.

I sold on the watch bought via the grey at a small profit.

It suited me at the time to buy grey and enjoy a fabulous watch.