A GMT 116710LN dial Anomaly

[Eric]

Rolex GMT 116710LN (Discontinued)

As the legendary GMT 116710LN has just been discontinued during the recent Baselworld 2019, below information aims to share with watch enthusiasts a rare dial that existed in this model.


Introduction:
The 116710LN (with all black ceramic bezel insert) was first introduced at Baselworld 2007, replacing the outgoing GMT ref 16710. Featuring beefier watch case and better movement, cal. 3186, which replaced the earlier cal 3185 found in the ref 16710 line of GMT watches. The 116710LN also had their serial numbers engraved on the inner bezel ring of the watch instead of between the lugs at 6 o’clock position. In Mar 2019, the 116710LN was finally discontinued, marking an end to a 12 years long production.

Serial numbers engraved on the inner bezel. (right picture courtesy from fellow watch enthusiast Chris.


Transitional examples still have their serial numbers engraved on inner bezels and lugs at 6 o’clock position while the usual ones only have engraving on inner bezels.

Observation:
Throughout the 12 years production of the 116710LN, 3 dial variants were observed. Within the dial variants, the infamous stick dial was found to have existed. The 3 font types used for the roman letter II were found to be as below:

1. Roman II
2. Rectangular II
3. Stick II



Anomaly:
While the roman II and rectangular II are relatively common on the 116710LN, the rarer of them all is the infamous stick II. Google on “stick dial”, you will be able to find out more information.


I was indeed very lucky to have the chance to handle multiple V series 116710LN over the years of my horological learning journey. The observation is that these stick dials are only randomly found in V series 116710LNs. None was discovered in other GMTc that came along ie Batman or Pepsi. Neither was it found in the precious metal GMTc. Note: These stick dials are only found in V series 116710LN but not all V series 116710LN have stick dials.


Quantity in circulation:
Based on rough estimation (below), the stick dial 116710LNs in circulation are estimated to be around 5000 pcs worldwide which puts it to be very rare considering the huge number of 116710LN produced for the entire 12 years run. This is in my opinion even much rarer than the stick dials 16710 production that runs in Z and M series towards the end of their production. Not forgetting there are also 16710 stick dials (in other series) which were installed as service dials by RSC.


Rough estimation of stick dial 116710N produced:
Rolex produced 1,000,000 watches in V series (Serial number V000001 to V999999)

If 50% of them are Dress watches, then 500,000 pcs should be professional watches.

If 30% of professional watches are in precious metal, then 350,000 pcs should be made in Stainless Steel.

Let’s just use 7 production models (Sub, SD4k, GMT, Exp 1, Exp 2, DSSD, Yacht Master, Milgauss) excluding Daytona as it is presumably the lowest in production therefore negligible.

If we divide the 350,000 pcs equally amongst 7 models, then each model was produced 50,000 pcs in the entire V series Rolex watches.

Given that 50,000 pcs are 116710LN，then how many have stick dial?

Based on observation, in every ten 116710LN seen, only one stick dial (which is 10%) was found, therefore it is estimated around 5,000 stick dial 116710LNs were produced.


Estimated Value:
Based on the current market value, a full set (box and paper) stick dial 16710 typically trades at an uptrend median price of S$27k. Google for online trading platforms, you will easily find a good estimation.


Prior to the discontinuation of 116710LN, these stick dials were already trading at median price of S$22k. See screen grab, courtesy of Chrono24.Com.

With the recent discontinuation of the 116710LN, the stick dial 116710LN will definitely cross the S$30k mark and very likely to surpass the price of a stick dial 16710 based on the following reasons:

a) Current situation of demand outstripping supply for Rolex Professional watches at ADs causing higher trading prices in the secondary market.

b) 116710LN technically is far more superior in terms of built quality as compared to the 16710.

c) Extremely low production numbers of 116710LN stick dials in circulation as compared to 16710 stick dials.


Conclusion:
In conclusion, the recently discontinued 116710LN, a legend that many watch enthusiasts called, is indeed a classic GMTc to many Rolex fans.

But bear in mind, if you are looking to own a 116710LN, do keep a look out for the very rare stick dials within the sea of the LNs which are far more worth hunting for. Happy hunting!!

For those who are already proud owners of the stick dial 116710LN, hold on tight to your watch, it is going to worth a lot more than the 16710 stick dial and also the other Super Heroes out there. Cheers.

[037]

You're missing at least one dial variation. My former LN doesn't match any you've shown.

The obsession with "stick dials" and collectibility is maddening.

[mistermann]

You've got to be kidding me...

[Vamp]

This is exactly the information I was looking for the other day and actually posted on TRF asking about dial variations with no response! This is awesome information thanks Eric!

[minute_man]

Great educational post and thanks for sharing the information.
But I just can't help thinking that such notions are all about making up reasons to push prices through the roof.
All this for a regular mass produced model with a long production run. I mean, c'mon

[Snoop_]

Wow, not sure I would pay 27K for a stick "II" rather get vintage GMT instead, but I find one for 10k I will buy it. Thanks for the education.

[Rocket_Man]

Originally Posted by Snoop_

Wow, not sure I would pay 27K for a stick "II" rather get vintage GMT instead, but I find one for 10k I will buy it. Thanks for the education.

that is Singapore dollars. S$23K is $17K USD. Still a crazy price and totally unwarranted. Still I checked mine to see which one I had.

[dannyp]

I don't know that I agree entirely with the assumptions in your calculations. Specifically:

1. Do we know that Rolex actually used up each and every number between 1 and 1,000,000 for each letter? Seems unlikely, since the new random letter serial numbers would then potentially lead to duplicates, no?

2. The 50/50 dress/sport split. Dress watches come with so many additional variations, I have to believe they make up more than 50% of production. OP/DJ each came in 3-5 different sizes, and the DD in two. And, while watches did grow, 40mm was not the default size in every market.

[jillytime]

Great info. Thanks for sharing.

[Fabrice M]

As much as I love fairy tales, I really dislike it when someone starts putting numbers and valuation based on a wild guesses. Nobody knows how many watches Rolex produces, nobody! Nobody knows how production is split up, and valuation on a wild guess is totally meaningless. Every other week I read about someone who try to convince everybody that the watch they own is going to be the next Paul Newman Daytona, last week it was the Speedy TinTin, it’s crazy and careless...

[037]

Originally Posted by Fabrice M

As much as I love fairy tales, I really dislike it when someone starts putting numbers and valuation based on a wild guesses. Nobody knows how many watches Rolex produces, nobody! Nobody knows how production is split up, and valuation on a wild guess is totally meaningless. Every other week I read about someone who try to convince everybody that the watch they own is going to be the next Paul Newman Daytona, last week it was the Speedy TinTin, it’s crazy and careless...

100%

[Ravager135]

Originally Posted by Fabrice M

As much as I love fairy tales, I really dislike it when someone starts putting numbers and valuation based on a wild guesses. Nobody knows how many watches Rolex produces, nobody! Nobody knows how production is split up, and valuation on a wild guess is totally meaningless. Every other week I read about someone who try to convince everybody that the watch they own is going to be the next Paul Newman Daytona, last week it was the Speedy TinTin, it’s crazy and careless...

If you look closely, there is a fleck of dust on the dial of my BLNR. This means my BLNR is a 1 of 1 production as this was intended obviously by Rolex. It is therefore worth 50k in today's market...

[Ravager135]

Here we go...

You do realize that early versions of this model also came with Superluminova and a slightly different Oysterclasp as well? You can micro dissect the 116710LN into whatever dial variants you wish; none are super rare. Why does everyone think they are sitting on a unicorn?

[Sublovin]

Is this a joke? The forum should really remove posts like this. Why would discontinuation of a model cause the price of a dial variation, that was already discontinued, to increase?
This forum is starting to remind me of watching CNBC in 1999.

[Ravager135]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Is this a joke? The forum should really remove posts like this. Why would discontinuation of a model cause the price of a dial variation that was already discontinued increase?
This forum is starting to remind me of watching CNBC in 1999.

Next we will have Jim Cramer hitting buttons at Basel...

[joespeed29]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Is this a joke? The forum should really remove posts like this. Why would discontinuation of a model cause the price of a dial variation, that was already discontinued, to increase?
This forum is starting to remind me of watching CNBC in 1999.

Human psychology 101 - people just want to feel special.. just my humble 0.02

[Do0ver]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Is this a joke? The forum should really remove posts like this. Why would discontinuation of a model cause the price of a dial variation, that was already discontinued, to increase?
This forum is starting to remind me of watching CNBC in 1999.

This sums up 99% of the threads these days

[GoingPlaces]

Thank you for the very informative summary. I will say though, I see this as a nothing more than an attempt to inflate values. Simply state that facts and details (which is again appreciated) and let the market determine value. Arbitrarily concocting prices is not appreciated.

[Swiss Mad!]

How you have calculated the number of stick dial GMT's produced is not based on anything other than speculation & fantasy.

You have no hard evidence to back up your claim.

Further more, you are so obsessed with stick dials & squre Romans you have completely overlooked the other differences in font types between the 3 dial examples used.

I have attached a few I spotted but there are many more if you look closely enough.

[Eric]

The market will decide its value. The price can’t be determined by you and me.

[tng11]

Man this forum is sounding more and more like a Yahoo Stocks board with pump and dump scheme posts.

[jerryguo]

Wow, its already started ..., congrats to all the LN owners LOL

[ronricks]

Rolex is constantly making small font changes. Doesn’t make anything rare or valuable. A lot of ‘stick’ dials for the 16710 are service dials.

[inadeje]

So is this how it all begins? A post on a forum, dial variants and, suggested pricing? I’ve never seen how these originate. Then greys point to the post here when any would-be buyer questions the increase in price or, perceived/touted desirability. However, I did buy a stick dial 16710 but, I didn’t pay a premium for that anomaly.

[supersam80]

Mine is a rectangular... Even if it was a stick dial I'm not sure I would be getting excited yet

I expect the LN to go up a little in the short term then come back to where it belongs - more or less the same as the LN Sub.

The only difference might be if they do a red highlights model and it doesn't look as great. IMO it wont based on mockups, but this is entirely subjective.

[Roger Lococco]

The OP is the most brilliant of posts, yet everyone is missing the true artistry. He’s joking everyone. It is a parody post. Very clever and well executed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[inadeje]

Originally Posted by Roger Lococco

The OP is the most brilliant of posts, yet everyone is missing the true artistry. He’s joking everyone. It is a parody post. Very clever and well executed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So he’s sticking-it to us stick dial advocates?

If that is the case and its a parody, it’s brilliantly executed

My signature says it all, I signed onto the 16710 stick dial hype, should I hide in a corner 037?

[toolr]

Meh...

[DM101]

Interesting - thanks for sharing.

[joe100]

It’s like the 16710 stick dials. I held a 16760 with a stick service dial in my own hands a while back. They’re more plentiful every day.

None of these variations are rare