Why are people obsessing over getting the hard to obtain models?

[CEITS]

Outside of extremely rare rare watches the price of used watches have shown to decrease in value (yup even the pepsi gmt).

The wait is ridiculous, you have to spend at an AD, buying in the secondary market (grey) is at a premium.

If this was art and you had to do this to a dealer (invest in the gallery, show up to gallery openings. prove you are not a flipper, etc) I would understand since the painting is unique and most likely to increase in value for hard to attain paintings. I personally bought a painting for 30k and if I sold in the secondary market (auction) it would fetch 200k net in less than a year. The wait for this artists piece is insane. People are on a long wait list. But the ROLEX market is on the same level so just curious as to why.

But why ROLEX? Do people here think about this? The amount of time it takes?

I get because we enjoy as a hobby but some here look at it as investment.

[Kliminator]

It's human nature... the fact that people can't obtain those specific pieces makes them want it even more. It's crazy how many threads a day we have on the same 3 topics!

[Likestheshiny]

People who can afford Rolexes want what they want.

[CEITS]

Yes but the value of used watches do not go up minus the super rare rare models. The SS SUBS, GMT's etc if used will not be valuable 10, 20, 30 years from now. That is why I am curious as to why there is such an obsession?

[aleeboy]

Getting your hands on a SS sports model can be likened to being pre-allocated shares in a hot IPO of past.

Alternatively, you are buying off such a holder post IPO and paying a premium.

This was the case in the past, but many stocks which IPO'd within the last 12-24 months are well below their IPO prices. Luckily the people that were pre-allocated were able to offload some when the bell opened.

[CEITS]

Originally Posted by Likestheshiny

People who can afford Rolexes want what they want.

I'd buy a 20/30k piece of art and see it appreciate 10x fold. Point being the effort and time you put into attaining a ROLEX (SS) you can do the same and get 10x better results in a different market such as art.

[SkyJuice]

Human’s nature to acquire exclusivity regardless of its price.

[CEITS]

Originally Posted by aleeboy

Getting your hands on a SS sports model can be likened to being pre-allocated shares in a hot IPO of past.

Alternatively, you are buying off such a holder post IPO and paying a premium.

This was the case in the past, but many stocks which IPO'd within the last 12-24 months are well below their IPO prices. Luckily the people that were pre-allocated were able to offload some when the bell opened.

Correct but that means you are 1. a flipper 2. not enjoying the watch 3. not wearing it since a used watch decreases in value exponentially. Plus buying a SS GMT for 10k you are selling for max 15-18k. Art market you are looking at a way better return and you can hang it on your wall and enjoy it.

If you are comparing to buying a new SS sport model at an AD you cannot wear it or else it will not fetch the premium compared to new.

[TheDon2000]

My angle is...People like the pieces FIRST and the DEMAND for them makes them hard to get. Personally, some of my favorite Rolex's would be DaytonaC's, BLNR's, LVc, and a classic SS Submariner LN...I also like a blue dial Sky-Dweller - Hmm, looks like I just named off some of the most desirable pieces...

Point is, whether these were dime a dozen or impossible to procure, I would still like them. The design and colors of them are just more appealing than the rest of the options for me.

I guess that's the case for a lot of people as DaytonaC's, BLRO's etc. are nearing the impossible side of the scale (At retail, from an AD).

[Lord Hectic]

Rolex's tactic is to cement the brand image to the younger generation, a generation that is already over spending on luxury goods. Plus over the last 5 years the new money class has grown in certain Asian countries with an emerging middle class.

[le.mio]

I don't think that's the case for everyone. I saved enough to get a Sub as I always wanted one then when I went to my local AD, I was told about the waitlist. I had no idea there was a shortage. Then I came to TRF and realized the sad truth.

[MinMay]

I say 70% are flippers :) . if Rolex decline in price every year, then I bet most people wouldn't be buying them and we would get 25% discount at AD :)

This applies to all collectible hobbies...same as statues. I collect statues too..bought a statue for $400 and sold it for $3500 last year :)

[aleeboy]

Originally Posted by MinMay

I say 70% are flippers :) . if Rolex decline in price every year, then I bet most people wouldn't be buying them and we would get 25% discount at AD :)

This applies to all collectible hobbies...same as statues. I collect statues too..bought a statue for $400 and sold it for $3500 last year :)

The majority are flippers. This is the new business model that began with platforms such as Amazon and Alibaba. Rolex is not the only product that is being subjected to such focus by unscrupulous business people.

Now that these people are in, actual consumers lose interest as all the holders control who gets what, which is driven by demand from resellers and then consumers. Because of the layers involved, the markup at the consumer end it extremely high. I pity anyone who cannot resist temptation by purchasing at such asking prices and prolonging the death spiral the market is in. I would say the market looks like an inverted triangle with those who can lock in supply holding most (60), resellers/ speculators (20) and end consumers (20). For this reason, the death spiral will be prolonged as the holdings allows the market to be manipulated.

[BT1985]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Correct but that means you are 1. a flipper 2. not enjoying the watch 3. not wearing it since a used watch decreases in value exponentially. Plus buying a SS GMT for 10k you are selling for max 15-18k. Art market you are looking at a way better return and you can hang it on your wall and enjoy it.



If you are comparing to buying a new SS sport model at an AD you cannot wear it or else it will not fetch the premium compared to new.

Not sure why you keep saying it will lose value if you wear it. If I buy a BLRO at MSRP of $9,250 I could wear it for a month and sell it for at least $14k. At this point in time any SS sub, GMT, Explorer II or Daytona will take zero depreciation hit to MSRP assuming you don’t mangle it.


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[Bozack90]

isnt nearly every stainless sports model now a bit more difficult to get? they are popular, its always that folks want that which is more popular.

I hope things work out where people who want sports watches can get them with a few exceptions like it used to be, but who know what will happen with demand being what it is.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by aleeboy

Getting your hands on a SS sports model can be likened to being pre-allocated shares in a hot IPO of past.



Alternatively, you are buying off such a holder post IPO and paying a premium.



This was the case in the past, but many stocks which IPO'd within the last 12-24 months are well below their IPO prices. Luckily the people that were pre-allocated were able to offload some when the bell opened.

That’s actually a really good analogy. There certainly is a huge FOMO factor running through buyers.

And it is this same fear that’s leading to plenty of speculation. Indeed there are a fairly large number (by proportion) of buyers who really are interested in nothing more than flipping their buys at a profit as quickly as they can. Just like an IPO participant trying to be the first to key in their sell order when trading begins.
It seems particularly prevalent in this part of the world.

It is unlikely demand can run this hot forever, but I am also doubtful the ‘good old days’ of there being enough to go round in ADs will ever return in the absence of meaningful supply increases.

What is happening now is abnormal, but when normalcy returns, it is unlikely to be the old normal.


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[Likestheshiny]

I'd buy a 20/30k piece of art and see it appreciate 10x fold. Point being the effort and time you put into attaining a ROLEX (SS) you can do the same and get 10x better results in a different market such as art.

1) I understand how these forums could easily confuse you on this point, but not everybody buys watches as a financial investment.
2) You like buying art. Sometimes other people prefer buying watches.

I don't understand how you can keep mentioning art and not get how some people feel about watches. If you understand how someone can like art enough to spend time and energy pursuing it, how can you not understand how someone could like watches enough to spend time and energy pursuing them?

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Yes but the value of used watches do not go up minus the super rare rare models. The SS SUBS, GMT's etc if used will not be valuable 10, 20, 30 years from now. That is why I am curious as to why there is such an obsession?

They won't ?

[Andad]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Outside of extremely rare rare watches the price of used watches have shown to decrease in value (yup even the pepsi gmt).

The wait is ridiculous, you have to spend at an AD, buying in the secondary market (grey) is at a premium.

If this was art and you had to do this to a dealer (invest in the gallery, show up to gallery openings. prove you are not a flipper, etc) I would understand since the painting is unique and most likely to increase in value for hard to attain paintings. I personally bought a painting for 30k and if I sold in the secondary market (auction) it would fetch 200k net in less than a year. The wait for this artists piece is insane. People are on a long wait list. But the ROLEX market is on the same level so just curious as to why.

But why ROLEX? Do people here think about this? The amount of time it takes?

I get because we enjoy as a hobby but some here look at it as investment.

Welcome to my ignore list.

[Helmi]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Correct but that means you are 1. a flipper 2. not enjoying the watch 3. not wearing it since a used watch decreases in value exponentially. Plus buying a SS GMT for 10k you are selling for max 15-18k. Art market you are looking at a way better return and you can hang it on your wall and enjoy it.



If you are comparing to buying a new SS sport model at an AD you cannot wear it or else it will not fetch the premium compared to new.

I am not art expert, however I don't understand why you say used steel rolex depreciate heavily? If you look at vintage references of steel subs, Daytonas, GMTs etc they actually appreciated heavily compared to their msrp

[clb521]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Correct but that means you are 1. a flipper 2. not enjoying the watch 3. not wearing it since a used watch decreases in value exponentially. Plus buying a SS GMT for 10k you are selling for max 15-18k. Art market you are looking at a way better return and you can hang it on your wall and enjoy it.



If you are comparing to buying a new SS sport model at an AD you cannot wear it or else it will not fetch the premium compared to new.

1. Not true. Not all people that buy hard to get watches are flippers. Most of my watches are in that category and I am not selling them anytime soon. 2. Also not true. I enjoy all my watches especially hard to find ones simply because I have them. 3. Also not true. Just because you have something hard to get doesn't mean it never gets used.

Every one buys there watches for different reasons. At the end of the day it's our money and our business.

And usually by nature hard to find items increase in value over time. Not always but most of the time they do.

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[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Yes but the value of used watches do not go up minus the super rare rare models. The SS SUBS, GMT's etc if used will not be valuable 10, 20, 30 years from now. That is why I am curious as to why there is such an obsession?

What a lot of rubbish

[jimcameron]

Originally Posted by CEITS

I'd buy a 20/30k piece of art and see it appreciate 10x fold. Point being the effort and time you put into attaining a ROLEX (SS) you can do the same and get 10x better results in a different market such as art.

Have you ever tried to pickup a beautiful woman with a painting strapped to your wrist?

[snowblaze]

I guess this is concept of scarcity. It doesn’t apply just to watches. It applies to car, houses, clothes, collectibles and even food etc :) the limited food will always seems to many as imore desirable and tasty, even though the food stall which opens 24/7 with no queue could in fact taste better for you.

[steadywaters]

Hypebeast on all levels. Cars, watches, sneakers, clothing, fancy restaurants, handbags, (shall I keep going?).

Same story. Different toy. Nothing new here.

[westcoastghost]

Because the "Hard to attain"models are just about every decent looking model that is affordable in the eyes of the middle to upper middle class. I've walked into 1000 sqft stores with completely empty cases and only 4 PM pieces that are 40K+ each. Many people may have put off a purchase or were not in the market two years ago, and now that they are, they can not attain anything. It is not just hype and not just about wanting what you cant have, because unless you are in the good graces of an AD you get nothing but old man watches or watches that are 4X the price of what you are in the market for.

It is not like we are walking into stores full of watches and looking for a white dial daytona only.

[Lifeisarolliecoaster]

Originally Posted by westcoastghost

Because the "Hard to attain"models are just about every decent looking model that is affordable in the eyes of the middle to upper middle class. I've walked into 1000 sqft stores with completely empty cases and only 4 PM pieces that are 40K+ each. Many people may have put off a purchase or were not in the market two years ago, and now that they are, they can not attain anything. It is not just hype and not just about wanting what you cant have, because unless you are in the good graces of an AD you get nothing but old man watches or watches that are 4X the price of what you are in the market for.

It is not like we are walking into stores full of watches and looking for a white face daytona only. There is little to nothing available from the brand.

I have postponed perhaps more than a decade my purchases due to family. Now I’m ready to purchase the in demand models (have looked at other models and other brands) I cannot justify paying a premium for the new SS models, so I am now looking for watches that I was previously thinking would be the pinnacle of my collection (PM ones) it seems absurd that this is the case but I hope this approach will work out

[belutak]

Originally Posted by CEITS

Outside of extremely rare rare watches the price of used watches have shown to decrease in value (yup even the pepsi gmt).



The wait is ridiculous, you have to spend at an AD, buying in the secondary market (grey) is at a premium.



If this was art and you had to do this to a dealer (invest in the gallery, show up to gallery openings. prove you are not a flipper, etc) I would understand since the painting is unique and most likely to increase in value for hard to attain paintings. I personally bought a painting for 30k and if I sold in the secondary market (auction) it would fetch 200k net in less than a year. The wait for this artists piece is insane. People are on a long wait list. But the ROLEX market is on the same level so just curious as to why.



But why ROLEX? Do people here think about this? The amount of time it takes?



I get because we enjoy as a hobby but some here look at it as investment.

Herd mentality, fear of missing out and investor wannabes join forces :)


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[Krash]

Meanwhile, there’s another’s active thread on TRF where people are claiming that Submariners are literally “everywhere” and “everyone” has one.


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[Seibei]

Originally Posted by CEITS

If this was art and you had to do this to a dealer (invest in the gallery, show up to gallery openings. prove you are not a flipper, etc) I would understand since the painting is unique and most likely to increase in value for hard to attain paintings. I personally bought a painting for 30k and if I sold in the secondary market (auction) it would fetch 200k net in less than a year. The wait for this artists piece is insane. People are on a long wait list. But the ROLEX market is on the same level so just curious as to why.

This setup sounds improbable to me. If this artist has an insane wait list, why does he not wait "less than a year", sell his work at auction and put the 170k into his own pocket? Is he stupid or is he running some kind of charity? I don't get it.

What does an art dealer care whether you are a flipper or not? Most likely he does not and what he does care about is instant cash and investment in the gallery.