Will the Rolex “bubble” burst?.. if there is one?

[ruffa]

What are you thoughts on gray market prices and Rolex supply? Will Rolex ever flood the ADs with the hot models causing gray market to plunge or do they have enough money where they don’t care much about keeping up with demand?

This question was probably ask 987654321 times but I just started using the forum (even though I created the account few years back) and I don’t know where to find the topic.

[Mr.Rolex1]

What goes up, must come down

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by ruffa

This question was probably ask 987654321 times but I just started using the forum (even though I created the account few years back) and I don’t know where to find the topic.

https://www.rolexforums.com/search.p...rchid=23227022

[Abdullah71601]

100% guaranteed the prices will come down. Eventually.

[rolexinfl]

Not in a traditional sense.

The prices will come down, but not by much.

As some will 'need' to 'liquidate', others will be quick to snap them up at another inflated level, but nowhere near retail or below retail.

[Plai]

Originally Posted by Abdullah71601

100% guaranteed the prices will come down. Eventually.

Or stop rising and allowing inflation to catch up!

[singe89]

Maybe we should start a thread with a pole on how many more threads we will see with the title albino the lines of “will the bubble burst”.

[037]

Better question; when will the 'bubble thread' bubble burst?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by singe89

Maybe we should start a thread with a pole on how many more threads we will see with the title albino the lines of “will the bubble burst”.

Why not, nothing else to discuss

Originally Posted by 037

Better question; when will the 'bubble thread' bubble burst?

Exactly, probably after Basel 2030

[anesthesia]

I look at this like trying to pick individual stocks -- it's a fool's game. You can win or lose big. I'd say buy what you like when you can afford it, then wear it. There are much more secure investment vehicles than watches. If you buy what you like, the "fair market value" is not particularly relevant. All that matters is if it's worth it to you, right now, with you bank account and personal situation.

[Danny83]

Maybe just for BLNRS and HULKS

[911NBK]

Originally Posted by Danny83

Maybe just for BLNRS and HULKS

Ya because 23kUSD for Daytona C makes perfect sense.

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[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by 911NBK

Ya because 23kUSD for Daytona C makes perfect sense.

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Actually just slightly more than $23k for a BLNR, but agree with you 100%

[timedate]

no they wont come down unless interest rates are available to savers as they were 10 years ago, billions of dollars are being parked in luxury items as a way of trying to get a return and also as a way of trying to stop inflation eroding peoples savings.

Its not just rolex that people are buying.

[LandWatch]

Originally Posted by anesthesia

I look at this like trying to pick individual stocks -- it's a fool's game. You can win or lose big. I'd say buy what you like when you can afford it, then wear it. There are much more secure investment vehicles than watches. If you buy what you like, the "fair market value" is not particularly relevant. All that matters is if it's worth it to you, right now, with you bank account and personal situation.

Yes! Agree entirely

[77T]

Answering the OP’s question is easier than choosing individual stocks. But a big recession, depression, panic, etc in financial markets will drop demand and prices.

There are signals you might sense - for example, an exodus to value - in May, US Stock Market ETF’s saw a $20 Billion outflow. That $20 Billion went somewhere safer methinks.

All bubbles burst eventually. It’s picking the when and how that’s difficult. Just don’t get “antsy” and chase your tail.

In either pursuit, stocks or bubbles, the fundamental way to succeed is the same:

Invest in yourself - learn the business in which you’re thinking of investing. In this case, learn the Rolex trading game.

Buy what you understand.

Look at the long-term. Don’t be a “day-trader” trying to time things by jumping around.

Learn from your mistakes (you will inevitably make some) and move on.

Lastly, “If you aren’t willing to own a stock (watch) for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes.”

Oh...and if you’re new to TRF, learn to use the search function to read the now 987654322 threads on this topic.


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[ruffa]

Originally Posted by 77T

Answering the OP’s question is easier than choosing individual stocks. But a big recession, depression, panic, etc in financial markets will drop demand and prices.

There are signals you might sense - for example, an exodus to value - in May, US Stock Market ETF’s saw a $20 Billion outflow. That $20 Billion went somewhere safer methinks.

All bubbles burst eventually. It’s picking the when and how that’s difficult. Just don’t get “antsy” and chase your tail.

In either pursuit, stocks or bubbles, the fundamental way to succeed is the same:

Invest in yourself - learn the business in which you’re thinking of investing. In this case, learn the Rolex trading game.

Buy what you understand.

Look at the long-term. Don’t be a “day-trader” trying to time things by jumping around.

Learn from your mistakes (you will inevitably make some) and move on.

Lastly, “If you aren’t willing to own a stock (watch) for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes.”

Oh...and if you’re new to TRF, learn to use the search function to read the now 987654322 threads on this topic.


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I will make it my goal today to learn to use the search function. In the meantime, thank you for such a detailed reply. I know looking at watches as investments is absurd. I bought them because I liked them. I have close to 10 steel Rolex watches and quite a few of them I purchased under retail/at retail. I want to downsize to around 4 watches. It's hard to let go seeing how some of them doubled in price. My guess is it's probably safer to sell some now rather than later. I don't think the prices will climb much higher. They might not drop really soon but if (most likely "when") they do, I'll myself

[ruffa]

Originally Posted by 911NBK

Ya because 23kUSD for Daytona C makes perfect sense.

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[gabrielnovar]

Rolex is recession and bubble proof. They can control supply and reduce to 10-15 per year if they wanted.

My old man said 3 things are constant in life, death, taxes and rolex prices always going up.

[stockae92]

if you are calling it a bubble, its going to burst. and if I know exactly when, I would be the richest man on earth.

I can totally see Rolex prices having a support at list price. So if you buy at list, at least you are not going to lose any money.

But having prices almost doubling that of list price, I still don't see how this is sustainable.

[Bdiesel570]

I just want a BLNR on a jubilee and I am not paying 23k for it.

Pls come down SS prices!